For a couple of days Chennai has been facing cool weather despite it nearing peak summer. This kind of weather with a max temp of less than 34 degrees C will continue for the next few days.
This is because the UAC that has triggered rains in South Tamil Nadu and Sri Lanka is going to intensify and descend to lower levels, meaning an LLCC (lower level circulation center) is going to form soon. This is going to boost thunderstorm activity greatly in South and Central Tamil Nadu.
Chennai however, will have to wait. If lucky a few isolated showers might occur till 13th.
The scenario however remains unclear on WHERE the LPA is going to form. GFS indicates Arabian sea while other models indicate SW BOB. SW BOB will be much more favourable for rains for Chennai.
Chennai’s rains will depend on the location of formation of the LPA and the strength of the UAC. As of now we might get some sporadic showers, but it will be much more if SW BOB scenario takes place. This is very tricky and very tough to predict. We have to wait and see where the LLCC emerges before we can conclude on rains
Topic contributed by Sudharshan