For the last few days, bloggers were keenly watching the formation of UAC in various models. As expected, the UAC (Upper Air Circulation) over SW BOB / Comrin Sea has formed and it is well defined in 850, 700 and 500 hpa levels. This UAC is going to bring lot of rains to Southern Tamil Nadu in the initial stages. Whether it is going to descend to lower levels and ultimately to sea level as a LPA (Low Pressure Area) and subsequently intensify into a Cyclone has to be seen in coming days. There is no consensus in the models.
Meanwhile, the CEW (Cross Equatorial Winds) is picking up in velocity and feeding the required moisture. With unstability in higher levels and moisture in lower levels, it is an ideal system in the making. Track this unique system formation in Kea Blog with various insights.
As for as Chennai is concerned, No more Kathri Veyil (Hot days) and no chance of Temperature hitting 40 C in the next week. As moisture is increasing, it will be more sultry and due to Cloud cover, the nights will be hotter as radiation heat is trapped. Coming to Rains in Chennai, there is 100% chance of Rains from this UAC in Chennai as the UAC is seen moving NE towards North TN coast. The date and quantum will be put up as separate post as and when things are clear in a day or two.