you are right. Once the present UAC/LPA disappears then real-big system will form.
if this system dissipate only will get rains or the swm will commence what do you mean by dissipate
It looks one definite powerful cyclone (>cat.3) is in pending before SWM-onset due to establishment of “regular Elnino evolution with +ve IOD”. Latest GFS run showing again one strong system over BOB.
Good Morning, after two days of break once again low level clouds can be seen on the eastern horizon to keep the soaring temperature (hopefully) at Bay.
As per 500 hpa GFS map UAC has moved west wards,.. … now lies South of Kanyakumari…… As per 850 hpa GFS charts Low level cyclonic circulation is seen east of Sri Lanka!
We might get overnight/morning showers in the next few days but don’t pin your hopes on them. If you want NEM like showers then you will get them when the cyclone in developing provided they reach us! So a cyclone isn’t really that bad a thing for us.
As per 500 hpa GFS map UAC has moved west wards,.. … now lies South of Kanyakumari…… As per 850 hpa GFS charts Low level cyclonic circulation is seen east of Sri Lanka!
confusion
Nothing as of now. ameen Just wait. This is 1st time GFS is showing something. they are going to change a lot. Dont put inFB now itself Cyclone is forming.
Yes yes! i know very well! that gfs will change a lot!
CMC landfall similar to Navygem but at south Central AP
Paavam pa – of late he is doing great and coming with his own analysis – very encouraging – one more expert being developed from KEA
Ok sir.
Yes maddy forming close to west bay, we can rule out Burma. If the ridge is in extended position. AP/Orissa is in excellent position. Even We have good chance. Whats ur take.
Lot.of.confusion..finally cyclone confirmed.asususal no cyclone for chennai and its going beyond TN.so only overcast conditions and drizzles only.lets. enjoy these lucky conditions
I remember when selva anna said..for our system to gain some intensity the S.indian ocean system below us should form a little east and that has actually happened.It has moved a little east.
guys our best chances if its a cyclone is chances today and tomorrow.if its depression it will reach us and chances are from tomorrow.so anything is our bonus..lets wait!!!
Guest 11k,
The interesting thing is they are expecting the current circulation to develop into a cyclone and hit TN which means chennai should be getting heavy rainfall starting from 13th maybe till 22nd :O
😛
12may – new low pressure area
13may- lpa is rapidly intensified in to a dd
14may- imd upgraded this system in to cat-3 cyclone the cyclone name is ashoba
15may- ashoba made landfall chn- pondy
maximum wind is 165kmph chennai recieved 444mm in 3 day pondy &cud&vilupuram&nagapatinam got200mm each
Finally. System sethupochu
This GFS run is really encouraging, but doesn’t look so realistic :3 How can a cyclone maintain intensity even while travelling through mountains like western ghats ?
BUT, a cyclone hitting Kerala is very much possible
OMG.
This GFS run predicts a cyclone hitting kerala and moving up towards TN coast and then Bangalore with good intensity.
strangest forecast I’ve seen in recent times.
Can somebody share the 700 and 500hpa wind direction forecasts for the next 2 weeks?Where are Sel and GTS?MJO shown as a weak one for the next 2 weeks.
Susa- Thanks..just checked the 700 and 500hpa at http://202.54.31.51/bias/gfsproducts.php.
Looks favourable at this juncture.But does it look very different compared to what you may see in May?
Yes jet stream is very very low, too far south for May
yes of course..all..but changing the blog mind to negative news if didn’t get the gud news
We expected this system to travel along the Indian east coast but GFS had something different in it’s mind.
This one is expected to travel along the Indian west coast right upto Goa/mumbai as a cyclone 😛
Foreca meteogram its based on ECMWF predicting nearly 52mm for chennai staring from Tuesday… experts what’s your take on this… .. accuweather also forecasting 61mm for chennai and bbc also forecasting good rains for chennai coming week!
“WHAT IS THE CAUSE OF THESE RAINS WHICH ARE GOING TO COME”
Nisha and Phayaan. jon, I have 150 years of cyclone rainfall data. Maybe in years to come, i will compile the wettest cyclone ever. As of now, nisha and Phayan
pull effect some 4-5 cm. During formation some 40 cm
OMG!!
during formation 400mm? really
yep. I remember those days, it was dark and cloudy the day the rain started, but I went to school. Evening 3 pm it started pouring. It poured till 5 and light rains continued. And that was the start of 4 consecutive holidays 😛
oh afhuva
wasn’t it 3? 😛
no 4
We had school on saturday for compensation I remember.. that also got cancelled 😛
Right 😛
Near comrin sea we got 350-400 mm. Around 100 mm in pull effect.
KeaWeather Archives 
its “big system” 🙂
In 2003 may we had cyclone alert, in 2010 we had heavy may rains due to jal cyclone
Its due to laila not jal…
Not for us right..once the system dissipate s this will form I guess
you are right. Once the present UAC/LPA disappears then real-big system will form.
if this system dissipate only will get rains or the swm will commence what do you mean by dissipate
It looks one definite powerful cyclone (>cat.3) is in pending before SWM-onset due to establishment of “regular Elnino evolution with +ve IOD”. Latest GFS run showing again one strong system over BOB.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015050918/gfs_mslp_pcpn_ind.html
Typhoon Noul will be reaching “super typhoon” category within next 6.0 hrs according to forecasts.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=westpac&sat=wgms&prod=ir&zoom=&time=
Good Morning, after two days of break once again low level clouds can be seen on the eastern horizon to keep the soaring temperature (hopefully) at Bay.
Super Typhoon Noul / Dodong Rapidly Intensifies , Sunday AM Update
Typhoon Noul churns toward northeastern Philippines
http://edition.cnn.com/2015/05/09/asia/philippines-typhoon-noul/index.html
BREAKING NEWS!!!!
Foreca predicts heavy rains for chennai from 13th night as it brings back its huge towers 😀
850mb vorticity.
RADAR is active due to UAC!
Showers possible today??
may or may not
Ameen, nowadays u r behaving like expert….come on…keep it up
Satellite image update….. massive convective activity seen!
The mid level is surging with moisture from the UAC, going to be pumped into coastal TN starting today.
The delta region might get it’s share.
Will chennai get rains today?
May or may not
Possible showers late night.
As per 500 hpa GFS map UAC has moved west wards,.. … now lies South of Kanyakumari…… As per 850 hpa GFS charts Low level cyclonic circulation is seen east of Sri Lanka!
Massive clouds over Meghalaya and Assam
Atlast GFS Confirms Cyclone – Hats off to GEM and Rao. But going to Orissa / WestBengal
Its going to be a intense cyclone.
Vada pochaeee
We might get overnight/morning showers in the next few days but don’t pin your hopes on them. If you want NEM like showers then you will get them when the cyclone in developing provided they reach us! So a cyclone isn’t really that bad a thing for us.
But again the cyclone falls in the low resolution forecast. It will change with next run :v
As per 500 hpa GFS map UAC has moved west wards,.. … now lies South of Kanyakumari…… As per 850 hpa GFS charts Low level cyclonic circulation is seen east of Sri Lanka!
confusion
It happens. It’s called shear
Navygem
going away from chennai?
Dont worry bands will hit us
Navygem landfall at Central AP
similar like laila!
So all models except ECMWF has picked up cyclone. Today’s run of ECMWF will pick up something.
Is Any model showing cyclone crossing TN coast
?
Nothing as of now. ameen Just wait. This is 1st time GFS is showing something. they are going to change a lot. Dont put inFB now itself Cyclone is forming.
Yes yes! i know very well! that gfs will change a lot!
CMC landfall similar to Navygem but at south Central AP
Even if the landfall in AP there is fairly good chance North Tamilnadu will benefit from this – provided it forms
Atleast GFS doesn’t show Myanmar.. This is more realistic
dark low level cumulus clouds formation here.. Very dark
Ya here too
it’s a sign of rains
Not always 😛
TS seen in radar due to UAC/LLCC
UAC and LLCC at same time. Ameen expert ?
Paavam pa – of late he is doing great and coming with his own analysis – very encouraging – one more expert being developed from KEA
Ok sir.
Yes maddy forming close to west bay, we can rule out Burma. If the ridge is in extended position. AP/Orissa is in excellent position. Even We have good chance. Whats ur take.
Pudhu GFS run creates pudhu confusion.
ECMWF Showing awesome rains for entire TN on 16th May
Dark clods coming in from NE.. Signs of things to come?
This exactly i mentioned in the first post, but chances temperature will be less compared to last two days
y models saying it will go to North-AP or south orissa? current wind pattern will take it to central T.N or Chennai…
Eaterlies is missing in pondy. very sultry
Seeing the pic above could see the ridge is at 10n approx.
Lot.of.confusion..finally cyclone confirmed.asususal no cyclone for chennai and its going beyond TN.so only overcast conditions and drizzles only.lets. enjoy these lucky conditions
Early forecast indicates that.
It’ll change soon..don’t worry
From cyclone Deepak to “drizzling Deepak”
Lol
no wait…cannot conclude now
As I was saying for the past two days, ntn has ts chance today.
Yes..but our real chances.starts tomorrow
more chance tomorrow
If it is a cyclone any chance of southern bads hitting tn if it lands.at central ap???/
What’s the wind direction ?will the storns at sea reach us?
north-east…current t.s in radar wont reach us
Ok sir.thankooo
sir ah? i am just 25
Ya
Today blog expected to be hyper active as its Sunday.but now stun silence
GFS latest run showing Depression near TN coast.
I remember when selva anna said..for our system to gain some intensity the S.indian ocean system below us should form a little east and that has actually happened.It has moved a little east.
GEM expects a cyclone to cross S/C AP coast by 13th whereas GFS expects a depression near our coast 3 days later.
GEM mass! _/_
Flash news!!!
wind direction is from SE! if a thunderstorm wants to come to chennai it should come from South east direction!
many Ts seen in SE direction!
is it not north-east ? 700hpa?
pls check radar animation……. TS coming from SE!
Yes.ts coming from SE
GOOD NEWS.
Probability has started to increase day by day.
good morning!
Good morning thambi.
GEM latest run:
How’s that possible within 90hrs???
When it comes to picking up the system first GEM rules but for intensity and track of the system its better to follow GFS and ECMWF.
RAPIDDDD INTENSIFICATION 😛
This is the truth!
http://earth.nullschool.net/#2015/05/13/1800Z/wind/surface/level/orthographic=88.51,8.29,1024
It shows nothing
Nothing seems to go more in tune with the reality.
Avanga solrathalam nambathinga pa:-P
Lol
He he he
Laila2
Ogni2
Lol
Laila2 is enough for us or ogni2?
Funny watsapp image
moderators pls delete this comment…
Why
guys our best chances if its a cyclone is chances today and tomorrow.if its depression it will reach us and chances are from tomorrow.so anything is our bonus..lets wait!!!
Lol rain expected only from 13th.
We may get thunderstorms today and tomorrow.
yes..but if its a depression its big bonus if its cyclone and moving beyond tn it should be overcast conditions,windy,and drizzles/mod rains
how many mm we got form hudhud?
it was going towards ap.
0.00mm
really?got some drizzles isn’t?
Not because of hudhud
We got light rain
Its not related to hudhud I feel
Outer bands
Okay
00.0mm I think
18mm from HUD HUD in Nungambakkam
BREAKING NEWS:
GFS latest run showing strong cyclone right over TN. Whole TN will be flooded if this comes true.
OMG!!!!
Massive change in its forecast :O
forecast by forecast its coming down
Yes. Yesterday it was showing Odisha and now TN landfall.
Date is shown as May 21 in that forecast
has first low formed?
earthnull shows nothing……..
But still chennai is missing
lol..whole TN will be flooded..means including chennai.
what happen jeetu?
its bonus
Check its placement…. Chn may miss bulky
Chennai will get rain from northern bands.
A further/slight northward movement will be ideal
sir y its showing 21st?lot of days left
Paaaa……………………..
Badly need rao ji’s comment regarding this.
he was expecting a massive cyclone before the onset of SWM.
That’s after this
Not exactly.
This may become that.
look at the date.
80 knots cyclone
lol..many GFS has come true in terms of rains..dont underestimate gfs like gem
It’s 276hrs away deepu
GFS showing massive change in its forecast. Yesterday’s run was showing Odisha/WB landfall and now its latest run showing TN landfall.
Massive rains and record breaking rains if this forecast holds true.
Eagerly waiting for meteogram forecast 😛
Karaikal 15 mm
Mdu ap 13 mm
Guest 11k,
The interesting thing is they are expecting the current circulation to develop into a cyclone and hit TN which means chennai should be getting heavy rainfall starting from 13th maybe till 22nd :O
So 444mm is possible
STRONG CYCLONE RIGHT OVER BANGALORE
Whats wrong with GFS? o.O
It has gone crazy. I am waiting for ECMWF run.
@pradeep_john:disqus
Whats your take on the latest GFS run.
Recent GFS forecast is so lame.
cyclone seen near kerala coast on 19th o.O
😛
12may – new low pressure area
13may- lpa is rapidly intensified in to a dd
14may- imd upgraded this system in to cat-3 cyclone the cyclone name is ashoba
15may- ashoba made landfall chn- pondy
maximum wind is 165kmph chennai recieved 444mm in 3 day pondy &cud&vilupuram&nagapatinam got200mm each
Finally. System sethupochu
444mm?
Ni nalla varuva.
Thangu
Konjam overa illa
444 is looking like lava mobile ad
Atom 4444 he he he
hahahaha 4444 ya
This GFS run is really encouraging, but doesn’t look so realistic :3 How can a cyclone maintain intensity even while travelling through mountains like western ghats ?
BUT, a cyclone hitting Kerala is very much possible
if cyclone hitting kerela??what about our chances?
If it is strong enough we’ll get pull effect thunderstorms
After the current GFS run I feel like even GEM forecast model seems to be better that GFS 😛
Lol
Susu
Bijli
Susu,
comments to be deleted
When was the last time GFS showed a cyclone close to kerala coast?
It showed Nilofar hitting Kerala
seriously?
yep, those were the first signs
Yes after that Mumbai and Gujarat
So the famed ( or infamous) May BOB system is on us.Great news and lets start the tracking
Yeahoooo……………:-P
Welcome back
welcome Gopal
Are we tracking for next week or the week after..I am confused..thought it is a 14th dated system..gfs shows 21st?
14to24 longlife system
GTS,System starts from 12th I guess.
and welcome back 😀
Longest surviving system is about to come
some tiny pop ups at sea
This one might become one of the strangest Pre-monsoon system ever seen.
OMG.
This GFS run predicts a cyclone hitting kerala and moving up towards TN coast and then Bangalore with good intensity.
strangest forecast I’ve seen in recent times.
If this forecast comes true then whole TN, SI Karnataka, Kerala will be flooded.
yes
what’s your take on this system?
If ECMWF shows the same thing this blog will be flooded so will our minds
ECMWF generally don’t change their forecast that much like GFS does.
Yea
but let’s see GFS is the 2nd best model by a good margin
True that.
true.
Whatever All I need is rain for chennai from this system.
It will change drastically
Yea who knows next run they might even show West bengal/Bangla again.
Hitting kerela and moving through bng is rubbish
Especially with good intensity.
They are trying to make history 😛
where is our foundation of our blog?
we miss him
KEA irumbu kambigal.
seems kea always busy on sundays…he doesn’t come here during day time
Can somebody share the 700 and 500hpa wind direction forecasts for the next 2 weeks?Where are Sel and GTS?MJO shown as a weak one for the next 2 weeks.
Out if station…. To remote area
Sel and GTS gone to S TN
500 hPa
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=ind&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2015051000&fh=132&xpos=0&ypos=272
Susa- Thanks..just checked the 700 and 500hpa at http://202.54.31.51/bias/gfsproducts.php.
Looks favourable at this juncture.But does it look very different compared to what you may see in May?
Yes jet stream is very very low, too far south for May
meanwhile these pop ups targeting us?
may be
Storms coming from SSE but don’t think they will survive
Some are big enough to come to chennai
They will weaken.
Nothing to get too excited. All models start off with Chennai only (start point) and then slowly shift
Start point is kerala kea.
Is it an arabian sea cyclone?
yes
How can arabian sea cyclone come to chennai?
Its not even coming to chennai.
All bypass routes.
If it forms in arabian sea as a cyclone,then yes.
but going to form closer to T.N coast..so some chances
Who’s in the mood for good news ? Surface level circulation developed!
except kea
east of lanka?
ss
Yep
I am always looking for good news
yes of course..all..but changing the blog mind to negative news if didn’t get the gud news
We expected this system to travel along the Indian east coast but GFS had something different in it’s mind.
This one is expected to travel along the Indian west coast right upto Goa/mumbai as a cyclone 😛
finally we are not gonna get cyclone:P
dei:-P
Radar Picks up Some TS to the SE of Chennai. Karaikal Battering got News from Relatives.
ECMWF gonna come out!!
eagerly waiting
when is the next forecast?
It’ll start anytime soon.
Guess they are going to stick with their own forecast.
Let’s see.
what a radar?
Category 5 damage caused by Noul
Omg Noul’s rainbands look deadly.
But ECMWF spot on again, it just grazes the coast and goes NE
As far as my concern it will not move inland
When GFS changes so will ECMWF. Expecting surprises in ECMWF.
Sir whats ur take?
Its showing kerela bangalore.nd finally.mumbai
Lets wait. But rains are sure for Chennai
NAVGEM model suggests a LOW over S-W Bay on 14/15-May
Have a look at the precipitation outlook for the second week.
http://www.monsoondata.org/wx/prec.html
Worst part is nothing much for chennai -.-
Possibly 29mm
Deepak, even if GFS comes true and if the system travel along west coast. chennai will get pull effect rains. This what happened in 2004.
Then ok.but for pull effect we need strong cyclone isn’t?
2004 track. Chennai got over 200 mm.
200mm?
Thats huge.
It might be Pull effect Rains.
Yea 200mm during pull effect rains are massive.
Not everything was pull effect.
Mouli, the cyclone was a LPA in Comrin sea. It pumped so much rain in entire TN.
Accuweather forecast for chennai
mm
Monday 11/5/15- 3mm
Tuesday 12/5/15- 19mm
Wednesday 13/5/15- 8mm
Thursday 14/5/15- 10mm
Friday 15/5/15- 7mm
Saturday 16/5/15- 14mm
TOTAL = 61 mm
Foreca is showing towers. Who do they follow ? ECMWF ?
http://www.foreca.com/meteogram.php?loc_id=101264527&mglang=en&units=metric&tf=12h
S off late foreca following other model than gfs
Accuweather forecast for chennai
mm
Monday 11/5/15- 3mm
Tuesday 12/5/15- 19mm
Wednesday 13/5/15- 8mm
Thursday 14/5/15- 10mm
Friday 15/5/15- 7mm
Saturday 16/5/15- 14mm
TOTAL = 61 mm..
Accu is gfs n it will change as per every run
Yea possibly.
2004 Track – http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/n_indian/2004/1/track.gif
Whenever a cyclone hits Kerala, Cuddalore-Nellore belt will get good rains. This includes Chennai
yes.
Yes pull effect Rains are one of the best ones for Chennai.
Possibilities of banded rains during formation stage too
Forecasts predict Kerala??
Yea as per gfs.
Upcoming one right ??
yes yes
GFS
nothing
Guys rememeber Cyclone Phet in 2009 near Karnataka. We got close to 500 mm
http://www.kea.metsite.com/summary/2009_11.txt
OMG!!!!!
But most of it was in the formation stage near GOM 😛
yes. some of which happened in pull rains. Here too. Expecting comrin formation.
Ghat areas will b in danger if so especially nilgiris like phyaan 0_0
Ketti and Coonoor and Kotagiri
Has the system formed?if not?when its expectedn
Foreca meteogram its based on ECMWF predicting nearly 52mm for chennai staring from Tuesday… experts what’s your take on this… .. accuweather also forecasting 61mm for chennai and bbc also forecasting good rains for chennai coming week!
“WHAT IS THE CAUSE OF THESE RAINS WHICH ARE GOING TO COME”
All started counting mm
Later cm?
Edhuva irunthalum bonus
cause of these rains?
Obviously this system.
Really?
Veppasalanai
lol
Thats what I had in mind 😛
1992 Kanyakumari cyclone… Chennai AP got 310 mm in 5 days
Wow
mazhai eppadi vandha enna….vandhaa mattum podhum
I had compiled the rainfall of Phyan in 2009. Its historic. See the rainfall in nilgiris.
http://tamilnaduweatherman.blogspot.in/2013/07/wettest-24hr-rainfall-day-in-tamil-nadu.html
Phyaan is the wettest cyclone i guess
Nisha and Phayaan. jon, I have 150 years of cyclone rainfall data. Maybe in years to come, i will compile the wettest cyclone ever. As of now, nisha and Phayan
820mm in 24 hours :O
Ketti 99cm
117 cm in 3 days.
Clouds is stucked there due to Western ghats when there is a pull effect.
Should have caused massive damage to those areas.
see the photos in that link
Yes there will be Landslides.
S landslides. Many dead overnight failed to see dawn next day
Phyan in 2009,2004 track. Chennai got over 200 mm.
was everything durin the time of SWN and NEM?
Phyan Nem and 2004 was summer.
woww
as expected the storms hav weaked
i just joined the blog at 2012/2013.missed all those
2009 was historic times in blog. Pure Joy. Past 3 days, it feels the same.
is the repeat possible?
pj sir how much did chennai got from phayan (pull effect)
pull effect some 4-5 cm. During formation some 40 cm
OMG!!
during formation 400mm? really
yep. I remember those days, it was dark and cloudy the day the rain started, but I went to school. Evening 3 pm it started pouring. It poured till 5 and light rains continued. And that was the start of 4 consecutive holidays 😛
oh afhuva
wasn’t it 3? 😛
no 4
We had school on saturday for compensation I remember.. that also got cancelled 😛
Right 😛
Near comrin sea we got 350-400 mm. Around 100 mm in pull effect.
Purely Daddy-Maddy effect!
Gaje silent spectator these days.
IMD needs to put in advisories/warnings much earlier for ghat areas if this scenario unfolds
pj sir,
as the system formation stage started?
Guess ECMWF trying to stick to it’s forecast.
Ecm will not drastically change tracks like gfs will b gradual
Yea exactly.
Jon, we cant compare now.
hrishi,GFS shows cyclone beyond 240 hrs. EcmwF total run is itself for 240 hrs. How can we compare.
Right.
LPA IN SW BOB
Looks good for entire TN coast.
but gfs shows west of lanka
GFS follows this but but expects SW movement after reaching SW BOB
ok
Massive Convection near Kumari and South Kerala.
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/dwr/dynamic/dwr.htm
what happend to radar?