We have entered the Agni Natchathiram period and surprisingly temperature is still in the mid 30’s. Normally we should be getting 40’s by now. Later this week temp will slowly rise close to 37-38. Our first 40 of the year could be another 10 days away from today.
KeaWeather Archives 
Yes……this looks like august July month that temp still hovering 35 34…… We ll get 42 41 c sure waiting for us
Lets wait why hurry
Clear and Bright Sunshine Early in the Morning and Humid as well.
No news about the system cho sad
nothing turned fav for system.. one best chance surfacing in central bay adjoining n.andaman sea by 15th..but still its not a clear one.
cfs falls to ecmwf forecast . ecmwf long range outlook expected a very dry swm for north TN AND S.AP COAST.now cfs is marginally coinciding with ecmwf forecast..only difference in region between the two models is just 2 or 3 degree longitude.
three fold increase in elnino threat seen in recent cfs forecast.. if the forecast holds true, v may see one of the strongest elnino event in tis year by boreal fall/winter
BREAKING NEWS!!!
All models except GFS show a cyclone slamming N.TN/S.AP within a week!!! Get ready bloggers!!!
True?
Yes its true
Kelvin Wave expected in Phase 1 by 08th.
LOW at GOM by 9th!!!
The track Of This Cyclone Looks Like Laila
I wish real summer to start soon in chennai
Hmm not required
Ofcourse that’s also comes under climate…. I desperately need at least 10 days of 40+
Omg that’s too bad we don’t need 40s! It’ll dry up the water table
Hmm let’s see, nature has its own way
Jeet….we should think people in huts and tiled houses
Nature is common to all….
then we should not pray for rain either. Think about ppl living in huts and streets
yes exactly we have AC’s but think about them…
Unusual cloud with lovely breeze – moving south to north
It is just 10 am temperature showing T Temperature- 33.4°C – are we going for a slightly higher temperature today!!!
yes
slowly but steadily we should touch 40 In around 10 days time.
somebody says cyclone within 7 days
they will still be talking about it in 7 days too
40 or more, if it help in triggering t.s for Chennai I always welcome that
Southern suburbs are cooler and cloudy hope will continue for few days
Today’s rainfall
Madurai ap 18 mm
Kodai 15 mm
Valparai 15mm
3 back to back systems in West Pacific, chances are less for any system development in Bay and these West Pacific Systems are likely to trigger the early onset of SWM over Andamans.
Chances are very less for any storm to develop in Bay, as there is a back to back systems developing in West Pacific. The first one already developing, this will move NW and cross North Philippines coast by 10th. The second one forming around 08th over West and Adjoining Central Pacific and move in NW direction towards West Pacific. The third system likely to develop in West Pacific by 18th.
The second system would be very very strong one as per GFS forecast. We have to wait for the third system status.
These 3 back to back systems will change the wind direction over North Indian Ocean, especially the second system, this should trigger the strong westerly winds over North Indian Ocean and South Bay and that is when the SWM onset likely to happen.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=wpac&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2015050600&fh=48&xpos=0&ypos=255.555562325466
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=wpac&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2015050600&fh=264&xpos=0&ypos=477.7777904345669
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=wpac&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2015050600&fh=312&xpos=0&ypos=588.8889044891173
Partha rest of the models show a cyclone except GFS
What about ECMWF, they have ruled out any system, Jupi you have to see the logic, if it is an easterly wave prevailing till next week, then i will also believe that there may be a system forming, but winds are changing to Westerly by 14th and the west pacific system is pulling those winds, so it will strengthen the Westerly winds over South Bay and Andamans and this should create a Low over the islands by nature, since an HPA will be forming over Maritime Continent, hence no system formation will happen in Bay, there may be an UAC developing between 11th and 14th, we might see some TS happening over TN, nothing else expected.
Partha ecmwf is also expecting a low over SW BOB!
Biggest Earthquake of the century will occur in JK
http://www.maalaimalar.com/2015/05/06102137/Risk-Of-Massive-Earthquake-Hig.html
OMG this looks scary and exciting as well!!! Laila 2 very much in the making…
TN daily rainfall
Peraiyur (Madurai Dist)
4
Periyanaickenpalayam (Coimbatore Dist), Sivakasi (Virudhunagar Dist)
3 each
Kalugumalai (Toothukudi Dist), Airport Madurai (Madurai Dist), Uttamapalayam (Theni Dist), Thuraiyur (Trichy Dist), Madukkur (Thanjavur Dist)
2 each
Valparai pto (Coimbatore Dist), Kodaikanal (Dindigul Dist), Mettupatti (Madurai Dist), Tiruvadanai (Ramanathapuram Dist), Periyar (Theni Dist), Neyveli AWS (Cuddalore Dist), Coonoor (Nilgiris Dist), Valparai taluk office (Coimbatore Dist)
1 each
Salman Khan convicted in 2002 hit-and-run case
OMG! if this happens more than 100mm possible for chennai
waiting for it to happen. Will it happen? I am not sure
As always you’re not sure
am also not sure
Wow this would be a perfect Cyclone for chennai see northern bands right over us.. Had this forecast oly been GFS or ECM 😦
ECMWF showed the same last night… Almost
Ecm still showing som activity but far south n less intense
Precipitation outlook
onset of SWM…
as gem more than 10 INCHES for chennai if it happens
whether its ELNINO or LANINA,cyclones always form in west pacific very frequently and atleast 2 cyclones form in west pacific every month.i donno why.can anyone answer please?why its not the case in bay of bengal?
Very simple pacific is huge moisture and energy (temp) are abundant.
ok.is it nature of pacific ocean?why such moisture and energy not available in BOB?
Because there isn’t any big land mass in w.Pacific except few small islands so the t storms feeding on available moisture and grow big in size and intensity.
thanks for the information.but even though no huge landmass enroute,i want to know why more disturbances are being born?in bay even those distrubances not happening
tornado hit germany
IMD:
-The upper air cyclonic circulation over south Tamilnadu and adjoining comorin area extending upto 2.1 km above mean sea level persists. A wind discontinuity runs from this system to north Madhya Maharashtra across Interior Karnataka and extends upto 0.9 km above mean sea level.
-The upper air cyclonic circulation over south Andaman sea and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal extending upto 1.5 km above mean sea level persists.
Weather Alert System based on SMS
http://www.niticentral.com/2015/05/01/weather-alert-system-based-on-sms-311538.html
Noul now upgraded to typhoon Last 2-GFS forecasts landfall Typhoon Noul over Luzon on sun
Another invest 93W looks big compared to noul will b named dolphin :p
Latest GEM showing cyclone laila like cyclone near chennai! on may 13th…. its showing more than 10 INCHES rains possible for chennai. (if it happens)
I’m once again repeating that
“my advice is to wait till the low pressure area forms. And when it forms we will start tracking it. “
ok sir, what ever you say , since PJ is on a holiday you be front runner we will go by your advise!!
enna sir nenga ippdi sollitingale
Boss, Pradeep has deputed Electric to be the interim SJ…or CJ.
SJ meaning System Jockey or Cyclone jockey..
the way in which he is going Electric will become permanent PJ!! (Prediction Jockey)
But Ameen low pressure area has already formed 😛
where?
Near east SL
Guys,
I will give you simple example on why a storm is not possible in Bay.
See MSLP report of GFS, if you have observed for the past 10 days, you would have seen that there are LOW’s formed over North India and it is sustained in that place, this is the indication of early onset of SWM, when there is LOW over North India, how come we can expect a strong system over South Bay?
This is the reason we are not getting strong system in South Bay from June to September.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=ind&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2015050600&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=325.5555641798328
partha let go GFS model its not very reliable 😦 sorry…
Even GFS predicting a LOW over GOM.
I am not going by any of the models, i am going by the logic, i am sure that there is a LOW between 11th and 14th but no strong system.
yes I agree but pre monsoon system confirmed partha! 🙂
Thats enouhh right a mini depression woiuld do
FLASH NEWS!
Latest ECMWF run shows a Depression/Deep Depression over GOM on 14th!
System moves north and crosses Central TN on 15th…
Light rain with heavy winds for past 20 min..
To be honest no signs of early SWM yet.
???
Yes, SWM is probably gonna set in on time
maddy,
By may 17th i am expecting the onset over Andamans,
Normal onset date over south andamans is 17th, but IMD says till North Andaman it is around 20th.
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/Monsoon_frame.htm
Those maps are complete nonsense ignore them, yes onset over Andamans is mid may and same with Lakshadweep, a few days after Andaman onset.
But to be honest that isn’t a true onset, but stronger SWM showers. I feel we would have SWM by May 30th or so this year which can be in normal category I guess
yes ,actual onset is 18th/20th but apart from those “text book statements”,technically the first swm rain wave packed with winds sweeps southern parts of bay and adj s.andaman islands by 15th of may.it cud b from any low pressure system or thick cloud clusters
What do u think about this year’s monsoon? Normal or deficit monsoon.
We might have el nino this year, so I guess slightly below normal which could be in normal category. We need freak rain events like 2012 August
Yes. Lets wait and see. I also feel the same.
Cloudy conditions in bangalore from morning…now drizzling..
in hebbal? just cloudy in manyata, dont see any drizzles…. clouds coming from which direction?
Ya in hebbal.now stopped drizzling.. I guess cloud direction is from ne
your place seems to have just missed the heavy rains…. HMT ward has got 15mm.. Western areas have got more – Peenya has got 22mm…. Chokkasandra 22.5mm….
Oh no 😦
Why i said SWM will little earlier over Andamans,
1. Consistently the Low Pressure over North India.
2. West Pacific triggering strong system from 08th, triggering westerly winds over Bay of Bengal and NIO.
3. Strong HPA development in South Indian Ocean.
4. Kelvin Wave Expected in Phase 2 by next week, this will shift ITCZ northwards.
5. Westerly winds at 20 to 25 knots at 850 HPA level from 15th over South Bay.
Expect SWM before 18th.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=ind&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2015050600&fh=222&xpos=0&ypos=542.2222365862061
This is not SWM simply because of the absence of TEJ. Moreover those are extratropical cyclones and WDs passing over North India creating low pressure, not the heat lows required to trigger SWM over N India and Tibet. The surface level pressure needs to be lower all over South Asia for SWM
Only GFS expects that
Even if early onset happens it will be very weak or dormant for sometime we need something concrete for onset and progress.
Som excerpts frm IWM
Parameters for swm onset n current conditions
Central north west india heat is still low at this point also threat of incoming wds nxt week
Sst over somalia is vry high ovef 30 (must be 25 by may end) suggesting less wind reaching coast frm important mascarene high
Most important strong BOB low is not yet materialized it may happen by mid may..
And there is obvious elnino threat..
The somalia one is an important point Mascarene high is still p weak
Infact it has started to intensify now 1032mb but winds yet to reach horn will takes som time
Weird earthnull GFS data says only 1013-1014 hPa
TY ‘NOUL’ currently tracking in an area with weaker steering winds , and is likely to be picked up by the developing STR to its north in the days to come and so until then it would continue to propagate with low translational speeds. The system is not that intense and lacks any kind of transverse waves in its outflows, and the pole ward component is taking a dominant role currently and is evident in the western semi circle sector of the upper levels. Curved banding is seen …
3 circulations in the same image wow
W.Pacific confluence zone is doing the work
ecmwf expecting stong w-sw current ..courtesy: future s.indian system and tat system will b the key for next bob system as well so hope the conditions stays favourable for onset even if system fails to develop
Intense ts clouds around.
any snaps?
Will try ameen.
Ridging and Troughing happening very close by in the mid levels near Pakistan and adjoining Rajasthan, Gujarat region ..Height gradients so close by …..
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/nwp/00hgfs_500contour.htm
CFS keeps showing a stronger #elnino for 2015. Here’s an animation of the last 3 dekads of forecasts #climate #enso
Partha,Sir
SOI will increase or decrease with increase in pressure at Darwin?? I think it will decrease with increase in pressure at Darwin…this was actually asked by Rsrao sir i have the same doubt?
Partha might be busy.
SOI is the difference in surface air pressure between Tahiti and Darwin and so if the pressure in Darwin is higher than Tahiti then SOI will be in Negative
Atmospheric pessure will be less over warm water and since SST is high over Tahiti area, the pressure will be less compared to Darwin where the pressure will be high due to cooler water compared to Tahiti area
Hope you got the answer though it’s not from partha
thank you…raijin sir…
lot of tiny popups over west and one decent ts nw of chennai seen outside 50kms radius
Even avil can be seen
“anvil thilagam” missing here for quite a long time
U mean that anvil thilagam ??
Yes….guess who he is?
Who is he ?
He won’t blog here frequently
Whats his name ?
Moderator will scold me
His name is ——— righ?
Might be
Lol 🙂
???
Athe thaan….lol
Yes….he would have been spot on
Vijay,
SOI will decrease further, i am sorry i said it will increase, it is negative, so we have to say it will decrease.
Decreasing value of SOI is clear indication of ELNINO.
If SOI reaches -8 then ELNINO is surely confirmed.
thank you sir…
Wind discontinuity at 850 levels all the way down towards w of Chennai
Moderate rain in Salem for past 1 hour..
i think rains are lashing out lakshadweep and maldives.south arabian sea is very active.any system over there?
ER wave in action
Seems in action for for than a week now , since the time it started to move west from Sumatra
but that wave behaved dull in BOB
Can behave with varying magnitudes , interaction with surrounding systems can play a role
ok.i am losing hope.i think BOB wont host any cyclone this may.
May can be less easily predicted with regards to Bay Cyclones
yes.but with scorching heat in may,lot of energy and mositure should be available to produce a cyclone.i think BOB must learn from western pacific
It will pave way of early swm onset over andaman then
ok.but a cyclone in may to TN/AP can save these rain shadow states.
My feel is a big due is pending for s.ap and also for n.tn in near future
yes.
Ok
Flash news….is there any subtropical depression/storm possible close to TN/AP coasts just similar to present forecasted atlantic subtropical storm???
impossible.only sun will stay near these coasts
Just speculation. It’s very tough for BOB/Arabian to host subtropical system like Atlantic Ocean. Reason is the dip in subtropical jet stream is not strong in arabian/BOB when compared to Atlantic Ocean.
yes.but sun god likes these two areas very much.
MJO in action near date line. This will trigger series of powerful (super?) typhoons in west pacific originating near date line. Post Noul typhoon can become cat.5 super typhoon under MJO support.
when MJO comes into BOB rami?
After this action over dateline, it may travel towards Indian Ocean (in June).
is it presently in west pacific?
Junction between phase 7&8 is dateline. At present MJO is at junction line of 7&8. But it forecasted to enter phase 6. &7 (west pacific). MJO:http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml
rao sir yesterday you asked partha sir i had the same doubt raijin answered it below…even partha siranswered it
It’s clarified. So no probs as SOI started falling as Partha said
You mean there will not be a low
no sir rao sir had a doubt even i had the same doubt… that doubt was clarified
As per @jupijove, a low over GOM on 14th (ECMWF)
Mr Sel,
Is this the ER Wave you are mentioning below that creates convective activity near lakshadweep.
omg.. why mr..? partha, 36 to 48 hr satellite animation shows the convective wave is moving west from southern parts of bay..
No mechanism available to predict earthquakes: Govt
http://www.thehindu.com/sci-tech/science/disaster-warnings-are-issued-as-early-as-possible-says-harsh-vardhan/article7176220.ece?w=alauto
So then better to follow animals and birds behavior prior to earthquake 🙂
Thats the only thing that sets apart human beings from god at this point…
Frog is the only living thing which will know the earthquake 5 days prior.
It had migrated the place 5 days before Italy Earthquake in May 2012.
Italy Earthquake happened due to in depth borewells digged for longer time across the country.
The same thing happening in Chennai and Tamilnadu.
1400 ft in my area (bangalore)..still growing 😦
so why cant we track frogs?
It is unfortunate that Frogs are not available in Chennai during summer, we could see only during NEM season.
we can see in south west monsoon toooo….if rains above 3 to 4 hours
Rajasthan/bihar got more indepth bore wells
Wow, never knew this..Nice piece of info..
OMG…all models except GFS showing LPA/depression close to TN/AP coasts.
When can we expect that low to affect tn?
By mid May according to models including ECMWF
Okay. Hope for the best.
Where are Bangalore guys by this time should have come up with their daily t storm rain and hail update these days they are regular phenomena in Bangalore 🙂
its yet to start in south bangalore. may hit in another few mins
enjoyy guys…….here dry and hot………,,,
enjoyy guys…….here dry and hot………
Been outside amost since 12pm, hardly any signs of typical Madras Summer..It’s so comfortable , you don’t even feel like wearing coolers which normally is an ideal companion once April starts. Expecting this honeymoon to end soon once SWM sets in over Andaman islands..Last year too we had a comfortable fortnight or so and only to be shown the reality with 12 days of 40 plus temperatures I guess.
When it comes to narrating the real life situations, you are the best thala, Unmatched….
Paartha, ..Vanakkam…..It’s just a layman’s language…
true partha..
bro…usually june is very uncomfortable for chennai
It’s indeed..
remaining cities ll get rainfall on june except delhi and chennai
our summer is getting delayed year by year.
Finally there wont be any summer!!
Kathri knows that you are outside and want to be merciful
lol
Boss, mercy now alright..Happy for all.. But but but..another week or so..,don’t know how many 40’s we are gonna encounter…
I have strong doubt about cross 40 this year – mark this somewher
MJO phase 6 (similar to phase 2) has the capability to create good convection (might be indirect way) over GOM/SWBOB thus a System. The famous system is Nisha-2008 with MJO phase 6. At present MJO forecasted to enter phase 6. So hope the anticipated system will evolve close to TN before mid-may.
Palacode 32, yelagiri 22, rajapalayam 14,dharapuram 11, Cbe 10 till 16.30 in mm
ECMWF forecast suggests South TN and Kerala will benefit from upcoming system on 13th and 14th.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=ind&pkg=z500a_sd&runtime=2015050600&fh=168&xpos=0&ypos=325.5555641798328
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=ind&pkg=z500a_sd&runtime=2015050600&fh=192&xpos=0&ypos=325.5555641798328
North tn will also get some rain
Why we get rains on evening in south west monsoon whereas NEM has no time????? bUt in very rare case we got morning rains in south west monsoon
August 25, 2011
August 15 2013
September 12 2013….these days we got rains in morning time……..
its all due to heat.. in NEM it’s not due to heat a system comes makes deluge whole day and goes whereas in SWM clouds form due to heat then move from west to east so cloud forming takes place mostly in evening but there are time even in SWM where whole day showers are on and off…
Dont forgot this one:
Last year jun 01- jun 28…..all states got deficient or scanty rainfall figures except Tamil nadu whereas it got Normal rainfall figure
First 40 of the summer past 5 years
40.1 – 14/5/2014
40.5 – 11/5/2013
40.5 – 11/5/2012
40.4 – 6/5/2011
40.5 – 26/5/2010
Apart from 2011, we have been getting first 40 only in the 2nd week of May. The same trend is expected this year too.
i want 2010 back 40 in may end…
heavy rain lashes Hyderabad this evening
skymet forecasts “cyclone free May-2015”
http://www.skymetweather.com/content/weather-news-and-analysis/skymet-forecast-cyclone-free-may-in-india/
Rainman/jigga
I was informed regarding your post in the other blog . FYI the link was removed a week back and not today. What heat r u talking about? What do I have to lose? Why should it be only 1 way, not the other way?
And what is the difference they talk about? Ironically the pro forum blogger left our group and started a blog itself, not a forum as he consider its superior. That itself is a victory for me.
Omg Kea what happened?
Well said .I am happy that you said it finally
Sir what happened? May I know?
I do not know what happened nor the content , but I am extremely happy what KEA has mentioned
Oh great that’s good
Your magnanimity that you have provided the link of that blog, though I do not like it.and happy to note that the link has been removed. I would request my friends also not to post any pix/or news from that blog. Please try to appreciate what has been posted our blog members. There is plenty to learn from our own bloggers like Chandru, Selva, GTS, Partha , Ameen(of late) Rao and we have PJ, Novak and Vinodh(though he is not seen regularly here) I would have missed some names as well.
What happened Kea?
As like 2010 we might see a 40+ only after the low or Depression made landfall which has been forecasted by Models.
Might see a 40 – 42’C around may 25 – 30.
and finally the 40 – 42’C we “May” not see at all in this summer , that too once the SWM sets in
Lets hope but Jeetu and Captain is Waiting for first 40’C.
ha ha – all the more guaranteed that we will never see summer this year!!
Once westerlies sets action starts. If there is no 40’s also fine. Even 38 & 39’C trigger Thunder Stroms if the Conditions are good.
You have system now ib may confirmed?
There will be a system before May 25th it will give Rains for Most Parts of Tamilnadu.
H ows that
In 2010 Max Temperature was 23-25 on May 17 – 20 with a 24hrs Rainfall of 190mm.
Temperature have gone up to 42.5 on May 29th,2010.
southern arabian sea just rocking like any thing.it seems like its going to host a system at any time.
Temperature Today in Tamilnadu and Puducherry (06.05.2015).
Temperature still Comfortable for all over Tamilnadu & Puducherry and Surprisingly the Hottest Place of Tamilnadu (Vellore) has Hovering Around only 35.
High Min Temperature
Chennai Nungambakkam – 28.3
Trichy
37.5
27.2
Palayamkottai
37.5
26
Karur Paramathi
36.4
24.5
Madurai
36.1
24.7
Cuddalore
35.6
26.6
Tondi
35.5
28
Vellore
35.5
26.4
Pamban
35.1
27.2
Chennai Meenambakkam
34.9 (-1.2’C)
26.2 (+0.8’C)
Chennai Nungambakkam
34.7 (-2.3’C)
28.3 (-1.1’C)
Salem
34.6
27
Dharmapuri
34.5
24
Puducherry
34.4
27
Nagapattinam
34.4
26.2
Adirampatnam
34.2
26.2
Karaikal
33.5
26.3
Kanyakumari
33.4
25.5
Coimbatore
33.1
23.6
Thoothukudi
31.9
24.9
Till 8.30am Today
Tirupathur
36
24
Parangipettai
34
26.7
HILL STATIONS
Valparai
26.5
15.5
Coonoor
22.4
15
Kodaikanal
18.4
12.3
Tamilnadu Rainfall Ending 8.30AM Today (06.05.2015) in Centimeters
Peraiyur (Madurai Dist) – 4
Periyanaickenpalayam (Coimbatore Dist), Sivakasi (Virudhunagar Dist) – 3 each
Kalugumalai (Toothukudi Dist), Airport Madurai (Madurai Dist), Uttamapalayam (Theni Dist), Thuraiyur (Trichy Dist), Madukkur (Thanjavur Dist) – 2 each
Valparai pto (Coimbatore Dist), Kodaikanal (Dindigul Dist), Mettupatti (Madurai Dist), Tiruvadanai (Ramanathapuram Dist), Periyar (Theni Dist), Neyveli AWS (Cuddalore Dist), Coonoor (Nilgiris Dist), Valparai taluk office (Coimbatore Dist) – 1 each
Travelling to Mayiladuthurai and will be there for next 2 days will post updates about Delta Region.
Cool I may too during weekend provided free..
Heard from my friends in CBE that the weather has changed dramatically in the last few days with stiff cool breeze blowing across coupled with TS in the evenings almost daily last 3 or 4 days. Practically summer is over for CBE (The city’s summer starts late Feb/ March itself) n nearby regions and what could follow is more TS and comforting breeze right thru the day . Normally this weather change happens during Mid May n probably this year it’s a week earlier. Off course, once SWM sets in over Kerala, CBE is the place to head as that awesome south westerly breeze will cradle, caress, comfort you to such an extent, you will won’t feel like leaving the city for any reason. Heavenly indeed..
Radhakrishna Vangala
that cloudiness (system may arise or may not) over Arabian ocean is arising due to +ve Equinoo, which is good for SWM-dynamics in the long run.
If this type pattern maintained till June-end, then India can avoid drought in 2015 irrespective of Elnino.
My analysis
Latest update on weather
upper air cyclonic circulation in South Tamil extending till comorin sea along with wind discontinuty extending upto madya maharashtra presist.
The circulation will give more rains to South Tamil nadu and delta districts and it will vanish after next 24hrs
An another upper air cyclonic circulation presist over south Andaman Sea….
massive TS seen in kerala, karnataka, Tamil nadu, and some parts of Maharashtra due to LWD (line of wind discontinuty).
Chennai and suburban areas of Chennai may expect some rains during next 24hrs…
Temperatures will gradually increase in Tamil nadu in coming days….
aha aha -Chennai and suburban areas of Chennai may expect some rains during next 24hrs…- super super
yes but chances are less only 25% to 10%
but suburban areas of Chennai has chances of 50%
Ameen.. keep it up. nice to see young guys analyzing to this extent .. great work.
Gayle Storm!!! Making Landfall In Bengaluru… Be Careful Coud hit Your House..Lol..
just like “may-weather (in boxing)”
Looking forward to the yearly pre-monsoon event. Boss of Bays to become super active by May 16th….
http://www.weather-forecast.com/maps/India?over=pressure_arrows&symbols=none&type=wind
welcome ODM!
Hi, I Know Even You Are A Vijay Fan… Welcome ODM!!! Back To Kea Blog….Missing You For Days
Welcome back, after controversial exit…. But kindly appoint me as a CEO of crowkart
Welcome back ODM.
Your entry reminds me frequently used words by you
Adam city,mosquito drizzles, electric TS,red pottu, katamaran,porur project etc 😉
Look who is back… 🙂 Welcome….
Look who is back
Vaa pa “Mellisana Kodu” ..:P
Dash, So it has taken exactly four months since went on a hibernation mode and now i realize that you were in deep research mood/mode to study the Boss of Bays and come with a post and thereby enthusing fellow bloggers to cheer up..Yes, no doubt,that you are one of the Boss of the blogs..BOB. Welcome mate…
Oh!! welcome back Dash.. Hope u r ODM. will check with MOMK.. 🙂 no more blocking please ehsan…
BTW, welcome SPZ…So it has taken one dash to bring you back to blogging…
Senthil and Sampath remaining still
Call for a meeting , both will come..BTW what’s Sam’s post count till date since the day he started blogging here..10 or 15?
sorry friends.. really got held up and assure to spend time from next week. few things from my end pending too..
Haan, Ok ok…Hope so..
1 message 10 replies. ☺☺☺
You have missed one Zero..wait the count is not yet over…
Welcome back ODM
Ram, were you blogging here with a different user name? If i can ask you…Ohh , think you are from Perungudi..
no other name to me.. yes, am from Perungudi..
Welcome Back, Partner.
Hi dasman how r u partner??
welcome back odm
welcome back odm
ODM, good to see you
Bay of Bengal ‘low’ delayed as Pacific typhoon looks the other way
The Bay of Bengal has been witnessing some activity as depicted by the formation of a couple of cyclonic circulations to both the west and the east of the basin.
But there is no indication of either of these into an anticipated low-pressure area just yet, which would have signalled the build-up to the long-drawn process of initiation of this year’s monsoon.
No ‘low’ yet
Typhoon Noul raging in the northwest Pacific is expected to excite waters up to East China Sea – not South China Sea or further downstream in the Bay of Bengal, as was expected. Noul is also forecast to take a track off the Philippines and Taiwan and spin away towards the south of Japan. Another strong typhoon is forecast to originate from around where Noul was born in the west Pacific.
On Wednesday, the US National Centres for Climate Prediction assessed that the southwest Bay off Sri Lanka could get to see some definitive churn from May 12 (Tuesday next).
http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/industry-and-economy/agri-biz/bay-of-bengal-low-delayed-as-pacific-typhoon-looks-the-other-way/article7177498.ece
Sir, For this I made the following comment earlier today. Now MJO-making definite entry to phase 6 in coming 1 week or so.
MJO phase 6 (similar to phase 2) has the capability to create good convection (might be indirect way through walker cell-mechanism) over GOM/SWBOB thus a System. The famous system is Nisha-2008 with MJO phase 6. At present MJO forecasted to enter phase 6. So hope the anticipated system will evolve close to TN before mid-may.
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml
Wait for odm’s 2nd comment continues….hope it wouldn’t take much time
Did you finally meet Rame?
Didn’t get appointment….. Still my application is under progress
Hope it passes quickly. Senthil is in queue
Hope so
Wtf happening ere :faint:
S—et has a blog or wat seems thy have evolved a lot since I seen..new girls with revealing oufits now provide forecasts :0 blindly imitating western agencies.. No substance though..
Blog?
Ya tas wat I m asking blog?? Seems many our bloggers there??
I don’t think so.
RAIN INTERRUPTION LIKELY AS ROYAL CHALLENGERS FACE KINGS XI AT HOME
Skymet forecast
Lol as always opposite.. but thy evolved a lot just saw theirs omg n its a rival now to imd insane..
They have a good financial backing
May I kno who owns tat agency
Person called jatin Singh started it. But they have a big shot investor
Why don’t u start a agency/news kea? U have the expertise resources correspondents, technical data all
Who has the time
Palacode 42, pechipara 36, yelagiri 22, dharapuram 16,Cbe 10 mm
Punjab are as useless as YO in “YOU”
difference between last year & this year is Maxwell
Everyone failing maxwell is utter flop
if he scores , it would boost others too…
Susa You Are Great…KXIP–^Bangladesh You Told This… Clarified and Confirmed….lol…
49/7 many bowled venue is chinnasami 60m boundary n elevation.. wat a night dampner
KXIP playing Like Last Year DELHI…
Skymet Forecast: Cyclone-free May in India
http://www.skymetweather.com/content/weather-news-and-analysis/skymet-forecast-cyclone-free-may-in-india/
We don’t want to mention.any agency name I believe.its against blog ethics..I Censor the name while posting
okkk will change…
But Someone Told in the blog to mention source..??
Sorry it was not meant to u accidentally clicked reply… Multitasking err
Ennapa Jon,multitasking ahh??
Hmm watching worthless match 😦
if u r tennis fan, then next 2 hrs are awesome
lol…
Mild breeze helping to keep the temperatures under check outside, hope its mild inside here as well…:)
Afterblogging here for five years, wat a way to be in featured cmnt…
Hi Wat link u posted got deleted??
It’s not the link he posted… Its the link to another blog… Thats different issue.. Better to keep us away from that issue
Oh k rightly said no controversies
Yes no controversies, moreover the orig man is back…:)
Only GFS is not showing any system for us. Even the mighty ECMWF shows something…
Reason: GFS is very busy in Western Pacific showing super typhoons
5:30pm, Hosur, very heavy rain. #weather https://instagram.com/p/2WKAUguqvf/
Iwm
Nice…looks like rain wit sunshine
It was pouring like hell.
Ok..back from vaction?
Yes. My Trip reading 2023 kms in 4 days. My Neck and hand are paining like hell after driving the car. Just got back to Chennai and logged in.
Both paining and raining like hell 🙂
Where and when
In Hosur Ashok leyland today 4.30 pm
I saw… You already posted this earlier…. I thought its raining somewhere else
Thats my snap in Hosur.
Wow gr8
Latest GEM run shows a strong cyclone skirting Chennai!!!
This is enough to give 20 cms atleast
Btw this is for 12th may six days from now dude
Looks like a depression
super..May 12th itself? wow
Earlier it showed may 9
😦
“skirting Chennai!!! “
It may or may not rain this may, but hey some say system in bay all the way…but no way, coz u wake up to a sunny day all thro may…
latest GEM showing very intense cyclone very near to chennai.. with massive to super massive rains pounding chennai and NTN coasts
showing nearly 15 INCHES
for chennai… cyclone winds are nearly 80-85 knots
Wow!! Will Chennai survive this super duper cyclone?
But ur advice missing..
neengalam roomba rag paanreenga Chinna payyana 😉
no no.. ameen is our fav .he is a naughty kid seen everywhere with his amazing weather knowledge
Stroms Forming to the NE of Chennai.
Courtesy-pic from FB page..Chennaites…
Current position of Madras…
Its not even 36+ this time around… And you claim it to be hot????
No Sesh, I understand , the actual summer or the real summer has not started..Its just that i wanted to share this pic thinking about the weeks ahead..Hope you read my observations about the cities temperatures yesterday around 3 pm in the blog,,
This was my post yesterday..
Been outside amost since 12pm, hardly any signs of typical Madras Summer..It’s so comfortable , you don’t even feel like wearing coolers which normally is an ideal companion once April starts. Expecting this honeymoon to end soon once SWM sets in over Andaman islands..Last year too we had a comfortable fortnight or so and only to be shown the reality with 12 days of 40 plus temperatures I guess.
Its supposed to be Vellore or Trichy.
Since last one week, the max high temperature reaches the peak around 9.45 am and only to drop down after that…Probably this may continue for few more days. Mid May, mornings should be warm and humid and the max high should peak around 12 or 1 Pm with temps hovering arond 38 or 39 deg..Hopefully sea breeze should set early to cool things down..Normally sea breeze sets in around 1pm to 2pm during Mid May and gradually the onset gets delayed as we near June…Lets hope there is some respite with early onset of sea breeze in the weeks to come..
NAVGEM showing A LOW!!!!
Mercury hits 42.7 degrees C, 4 deg above normal, but rain just a day away in Delhi
sat img update
The Non-frontal Low Pressure over Comorin and Adjoining South Arabian Sea is the reason for the Convective activity over Lakshadweep and Kerala.
A non frontal low pressure system has characteristics of both tropical and extra tropical cyclones. The upper level cold low with circulation extending to surface level with maximum sustained winds spreading across 100 miles radius from the center. In comparison to cyclones these systems will cover wide areas with convectivity.
This is a Tropical and Extra-Tropical Interaction.
partha,despite consistent surface level westerlies in lower latitudes,easterly wind anomalies were seen .tis is due to ER wave. remember the convection moved from east to west.
What do you think about this circulation?
wich one bro?
Yesterday Wonderful Day!!!
1.GEM Showing Cyclone Slamming NTNSAP
2.Salman Khan Arrested For Killing Poor
3.ODM Back To Blog
4.Gayle Storm
The day so far..
Morning – Jail
Afternoon – Bail
Evening – Gayle
haha..good one
super ba
took it from a Tweet…
i took it from you
Finally all fail
Is there any our friends who has written plus two . Are we getting party
i think no one… deepak is 10th not so sure…
yes.and paul too pa
Selvan,
You say that it is due to Westward moving ER waves creating the convective phase near lakshadweep, but following link shows as positive anomaly, that means it is a suppressed convective activity, not enhanced one??
http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/macritch/showhoriz.php
yes true.. tis one may be suppressed. there shld be a twin system in indian ocean if it was an enhanced one
very hard to differentiate the convection anomalies wen there is a multiscale wave interaction happens around.
Why not we call it as Extra Tropical Cyclone??
where?
Is it not an UAC over Comorin area, then we shall call it extra tropical cyclones, which will not strengthen into a Cyclone or Hurricane.
I agree that Extra Tropical or Subtropical cyclones may form beyond Tropic of Cancer over Northern Hemisphere and below Tropic of Capricorn over Southern Hemisphere.
Since there is an interaction of Tropic and Extra Tropic this circulation may not strengthen. This is why i said why not we call it as Extra Tropical System.
yeah.. whenever equatorial wave propagates ,interaction between tropics and sub tropics wil b clear.and btw ur interest on our field is blooming out of control.. unstoppable
let me see how far i could go in this area, but i got all your support and direction to learn more.
moreover mjo may also suppress the convection in bay as it is anchored in unfav phase