Easterlies keeping temperature in check

We have entered the Agni Natchathiram period and surprisingly temperature is still in the mid 30’s. Normally we should be getting 40’s by now. Later this week temp will slowly rise close to 37-38. Our first 40 of the year could be another 10 days away from today.

cmv

895 thoughts on “Easterlies keeping temperature in check

  1. Yes……this looks like august July month that temp still hovering 35 34…… We ll get 42 41 c sure waiting for us

    • nothing turned fav for system.. one best chance surfacing in central bay adjoining n.andaman sea by 15th..but still its not a clear one.

  2. cfs falls to ecmwf forecast . ecmwf long range outlook expected a very dry swm for north TN AND S.AP COAST.now cfs is marginally coinciding with ecmwf forecast..only difference in region between the two models is just 2 or 3 degree longitude.

  3. three fold increase in elnino threat seen in recent cfs forecast.. if the forecast holds true, v may see one of the strongest elnino event in tis year by boreal fall/winter

  4. BREAKING NEWS!!!
    All models except GFS show a cyclone slamming N.TN/S.AP within a week!!! Get ready bloggers!!!

  5. It is just 10 am temperature showing T Temperature- 33.4Β°C – are we going for a slightly higher temperature today!!!

  6. 3 back to back systems in West Pacific, chances are less for any system development in Bay and these West Pacific Systems are likely to trigger the early onset of SWM over Andamans.

    Chances are very less for any storm to develop in Bay, as there is a back to back systems developing in West Pacific. The first one already developing, this will move NW and cross North Philippines coast by 10th. The second one forming around 08th over West and Adjoining Central Pacific and move in NW direction towards West Pacific. The third system likely to develop in West Pacific by 18th.

    The second system would be very very strong one as per GFS forecast. We have to wait for the third system status.

    These 3 back to back systems will change the wind direction over North Indian Ocean, especially the second system, this should trigger the strong westerly winds over North Indian Ocean and South Bay and that is when the SWM onset likely to happen.

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=wpac&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2015050600&fh=48&xpos=0&ypos=255.555562325466

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=wpac&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2015050600&fh=264&xpos=0&ypos=477.7777904345669

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=wpac&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2015050600&fh=312&xpos=0&ypos=588.8889044891173

      • What about ECMWF, they have ruled out any system, Jupi you have to see the logic, if it is an easterly wave prevailing till next week, then i will also believe that there may be a system forming, but winds are changing to Westerly by 14th and the west pacific system is pulling those winds, so it will strengthen the Westerly winds over South Bay and Andamans and this should create a Low over the islands by nature, since an HPA will be forming over Maritime Continent, hence no system formation will happen in Bay, there may be an UAC developing between 11th and 14th, we might see some TS happening over TN, nothing else expected.

  7. TN daily rainfall

    Peraiyur (Madurai Dist)
    4

    Periyanaickenpalayam (Coimbatore Dist), Sivakasi (Virudhunagar Dist)
    3 each

    Kalugumalai (Toothukudi Dist), Airport Madurai (Madurai Dist), Uttamapalayam (Theni Dist), Thuraiyur (Trichy Dist), Madukkur (Thanjavur Dist)
    2 each

    Valparai pto (Coimbatore Dist), Kodaikanal (Dindigul Dist), Mettupatti (Madurai Dist), Tiruvadanai (Ramanathapuram Dist), Periyar (Theni Dist), Neyveli AWS (Cuddalore Dist), Coonoor (Nilgiris Dist), Valparai taluk office (Coimbatore Dist)
    1 each

  8. whether its ELNINO or LANINA,cyclones always form in west pacific very frequently and atleast 2 cyclones form in west pacific every month.i donno why.can anyone answer please?why its not the case in bay of bengal?

      • ok.is it nature of pacific ocean?why such moisture and energy not available in BOB?

      • Because there isn’t any big land mass in w.Pacific except few small islands so the t storms feeding on available moisture and grow big in size and intensity.

      • thanks for the information.but even though no huge landmass enroute,i want to know why more disturbances are being born?in bay even those distrubances not happening

  9. IMD:
    -The upper air cyclonic circulation over south Tamilnadu and adjoining comorin area extending upto 2.1 km above mean sea level persists. A wind discontinuity runs from this system to north Madhya Maharashtra across Interior Karnataka and extends upto 0.9 km above mean sea level.

    -The upper air cyclonic circulation over south Andaman sea and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal extending upto 1.5 km above mean sea level persists.

  10. Noul now upgraded to typhoon Last 2-GFS forecasts landfall Typhoon Noul over Luzon on sun

    Another invest 93W looks big compared to noul will b named dolphin :p

  11. Latest GEM showing cyclone laila like cyclone near chennai! on may 13th…. its showing more than 10 INCHES rains possible for chennai. (if it happens)

    I’m once again repeating that

    “my advice is to wait till the low pressure area forms. And when it forms we will start tracking it. “

  12. Guys,

    I will give you simple example on why a storm is not possible in Bay.

    See MSLP report of GFS, if you have observed for the past 10 days, you would have seen that there are LOW’s formed over North India and it is sustained in that place, this is the indication of early onset of SWM, when there is LOW over North India, how come we can expect a strong system over South Bay?

    This is the reason we are not getting strong system in South Bay from June to September.

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=ind&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2015050600&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=325.5555641798328

  13. FLASH NEWS!

    Latest ECMWF run shows a Depression/Deep Depression over GOM on 14th!

    System moves north and crosses Central TN on 15th…

  14. Why i said SWM will little earlier over Andamans,

    1. Consistently the Low Pressure over North India.
    2. West Pacific triggering strong system from 08th, triggering westerly winds over Bay of Bengal and NIO.
    3. Strong HPA development in South Indian Ocean.
    4. Kelvin Wave Expected in Phase 2 by next week, this will shift ITCZ northwards.
    5. Westerly winds at 20 to 25 knots at 850 HPA level from 15th over South Bay.

    Expect SWM before 18th.

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=ind&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2015050600&fh=222&xpos=0&ypos=542.2222365862061

    • This is not SWM simply because of the absence of TEJ. Moreover those are extratropical cyclones and WDs passing over North India creating low pressure, not the heat lows required to trigger SWM over N India and Tibet. The surface level pressure needs to be lower all over South Asia for SWM

    • Even if early onset happens it will be very weak or dormant for sometime we need something concrete for onset and progress.

  15. Som excerpts frm IWM

    Parameters for swm onset n current conditions

    Central north west india heat is still low at this point also threat of incoming wds nxt week

    Sst over somalia is vry high ovef 30 (must be 25 by may end) suggesting less wind reaching coast frm important mascarene high

    Most important strong BOB low is not yet materialized it may happen by mid may..

    And there is obvious elnino threat..

  16. TY ‘NOUL’ currently tracking in an area with weaker steering winds , and is likely to be picked up by the developing STR to its north in the days to come and so until then it would continue to propagate with low translational speeds. The system is not that intense and lacks any kind of transverse waves in its outflows, and the pole ward component is taking a dominant role currently and is evident in the western semi circle sector of the upper levels. Curved banding is seen …

  17. ecmwf expecting stong w-sw current ..courtesy: future s.indian system and tat system will b the key for next bob system as well so hope the conditions stays favourable for onset even if system fails to develop

  18. CFS keeps showing a stronger #elnino for 2015. Here’s an animation of the last 3 dekads of forecasts #climate #enso

  19. Partha,Sir
    SOI will increase or decrease with increase in pressure at Darwin?? I think it will decrease with increase in pressure at Darwin…this was actually asked by Rsrao sir i have the same doubt?

    • Partha might be busy.

      SOI is the difference in surface air pressure between Tahiti and Darwin and so if the pressure in Darwin is higher than Tahiti then SOI will be in Negative

      Atmospheric pessure will be less over warm water and since SST is high over Tahiti area, the pressure will be less compared to Darwin where the pressure will be high due to cooler water compared to Tahiti area

      Hope you got the answer though it’s not from partha

  20. Vijay,

    SOI will decrease further, i am sorry i said it will increase, it is negative, so we have to say it will decrease.

    Decreasing value of SOI is clear indication of ELNINO.
    If SOI reaches -8 then ELNINO is surely confirmed.

  21. i think rains are lashing out lakshadweep and maldives.south arabian sea is very active.any system over there?

  22. Flash news….is there any subtropical depression/storm possible close to TN/AP coasts just similar to present forecasted atlantic subtropical storm???

      • Just speculation. It’s very tough for BOB/Arabian to host subtropical system like Atlantic Ocean. Reason is the dip in subtropical jet stream is not strong in arabian/BOB when compared to Atlantic Ocean.

  23. MJO in action near date line. This will trigger series of powerful (super?) typhoons in west pacific originating near date line. Post Noul typhoon can become cat.5 super typhoon under MJO support.

    • omg.. why mr..? partha, 36 to 48 hr satellite animation shows the convective wave is moving west from southern parts of bay..

  24. Frog is the only living thing which will know the earthquake 5 days prior.
    It had migrated the place 5 days before Italy Earthquake in May 2012.

    Italy Earthquake happened due to in depth borewells digged for longer time across the country.

    The same thing happening in Chennai and Tamilnadu.

  25. Where are Bangalore guys by this time should have come up with their daily t storm rain and hail update these days they are regular phenomena in Bangalore πŸ™‚

  26. Been outside amost since 12pm, hardly any signs of typical Madras Summer..It’s so comfortable , you don’t even feel like wearing coolers which normally is an ideal companion once April starts. Expecting this honeymoon to end soon once SWM sets in over Andaman islands..Last year too we had a comfortable fortnight or so and only to be shown the reality with 12 days of 40 plus temperatures I guess.

  27. MJO phase 6 (similar to phase 2) has the capability to create good convection (might be indirect way) over GOM/SWBOB thus a System. The famous system is Nisha-2008 with MJO phase 6. At present MJO forecasted to enter phase 6. So hope the anticipated system will evolve close to TN before mid-may.

  28. Why we get rains on evening in south west monsoon whereas NEM has no time????? bUt in very rare case we got morning rains in south west monsoon
    August 25, 2011
    August 15 2013
    September 12 2013….these days we got rains in morning time……..

    • its all due to heat.. in NEM it’s not due to heat a system comes makes deluge whole day and goes whereas in SWM clouds form due to heat then move from west to east so cloud forming takes place mostly in evening but there are time even in SWM where whole day showers are on and off…

  29. Dont forgot this one:
    Last year jun 01- jun 28…..all states got deficient or scanty rainfall figures except Tamil nadu whereas it got Normal rainfall figure

  30. First 40 of the summer past 5 years
    40.1 – 14/5/2014
    40.5 – 11/5/2013
    40.5 – 11/5/2012
    40.4 – 6/5/2011
    40.5 – 26/5/2010
    Apart from 2011, we have been getting first 40 only in the 2nd week of May. The same trend is expected this year too.

  31. Rainman/jigga

    I was informed regarding your post in the other blog . FYI the link was removed a week back and not today. What heat r u talking about? What do I have to lose? Why should it be only 1 way, not the other way?

    And what is the difference they talk about? Ironically the pro forum blogger left our group and started a blog itself, not a forum as he consider its superior. That itself is a victory for me.

    • Your magnanimity that you have provided the link of that blog, though I do not like it.and happy to note that the link has been removed. I would request my friends also not to post any pix/or news from that blog. Please try to appreciate what has been posted our blog members. There is plenty to learn from our own bloggers like Chandru, Selva, GTS, Partha , Ameen(of late) Rao and we have PJ, Novak and Vinodh(though he is not seen regularly here) I would have missed some names as well.

  32. As like 2010 we might see a 40+ only after the low or Depression made landfall which has been forecasted by Models.
    Might see a 40 – 42’C around may 25 – 30.

    • and finally the 40 – 42’C we “May” not see at all in this summer , that too once the SWM sets in

      • Once westerlies sets action starts. If there is no 40’s also fine. Even 38 & 39’C trigger Thunder Stroms if the Conditions are good.

    • In 2010 Max Temperature was 23-25 on May 17 – 20 with a 24hrs Rainfall of 190mm.
      Temperature have gone up to 42.5 on May 29th,2010.

  33. southern arabian sea just rocking like any thing.it seems like its going to host a system at any time.

  34. Temperature Today in Tamilnadu and Puducherry (06.05.2015).
    Temperature still Comfortable for all over Tamilnadu & Puducherry and Surprisingly the Hottest Place of Tamilnadu (Vellore) has Hovering Around only 35.

    High Min Temperature
    Chennai Nungambakkam – 28.3

    Trichy
    37.5
    27.2
    Palayamkottai
    37.5
    26
    Karur Paramathi
    36.4
    24.5
    Madurai
    36.1
    24.7
    Cuddalore
    35.6
    26.6
    Tondi
    35.5
    28
    Vellore
    35.5
    26.4
    Pamban
    35.1
    27.2
    Chennai Meenambakkam
    34.9 (-1.2’C)
    26.2 (+0.8’C)
    Chennai Nungambakkam
    34.7 (-2.3’C)
    28.3 (-1.1’C)
    Salem
    34.6
    27
    Dharmapuri
    34.5
    24
    Puducherry
    34.4
    27
    Nagapattinam
    34.4
    26.2
    Adirampatnam
    34.2
    26.2
    Karaikal
    33.5
    26.3
    Kanyakumari
    33.4
    25.5
    Coimbatore
    33.1
    23.6
    Thoothukudi
    31.9
    24.9

    Till 8.30am Today
    Tirupathur
    36
    24
    Parangipettai
    34
    26.7

    HILL STATIONS
    Valparai
    26.5
    15.5
    Coonoor
    22.4
    15
    Kodaikanal
    18.4
    12.3

  35. Tamilnadu Rainfall Ending 8.30AM Today (06.05.2015) in Centimeters

    Peraiyur (Madurai Dist) – 4

    Periyanaickenpalayam (Coimbatore Dist), Sivakasi (Virudhunagar Dist) – 3 each

    Kalugumalai (Toothukudi Dist), Airport Madurai (Madurai Dist), Uttamapalayam (Theni Dist), Thuraiyur (Trichy Dist), Madukkur (Thanjavur Dist) – 2 each

    Valparai pto (Coimbatore Dist), Kodaikanal (Dindigul Dist), Mettupatti (Madurai Dist), Tiruvadanai (Ramanathapuram Dist), Periyar (Theni Dist), Neyveli AWS (Cuddalore Dist), Coonoor (Nilgiris Dist), Valparai taluk office (Coimbatore Dist) – 1 each

  36. Travelling to Mayiladuthurai and will be there for next 2 days will post updates about Delta Region.

  37. Heard from my friends in CBE that the weather has changed dramatically in the last few days with stiff cool breeze blowing across coupled with TS in the evenings almost daily last 3 or 4 days. Practically summer is over for CBE (The city’s summer starts late Feb/ March itself) n nearby regions and what could follow is more TS and comforting breeze right thru the day . Normally this weather change happens during Mid May n probably this year it’s a week earlier. Off course, once SWM sets in over Kerala, CBE is the place to head as that awesome south westerly breeze will cradle, caress, comfort you to such an extent, you will won’t feel like leaving the city for any reason. Heavenly indeed..

  38. Radhakrishna Vangala

    that cloudiness (system may arise or may not) over Arabian ocean is arising due to +ve Equinoo, which is good for SWM-dynamics in the long run.

    • If this type pattern maintained till June-end, then India can avoid drought in 2015 irrespective of Elnino.

  39. My analysis
    Latest update on weather

    upper air cyclonic circulation in South Tamil extending till comorin sea along with wind discontinuty extending upto madya maharashtra presist.

    The circulation will give more rains to South Tamil nadu and delta districts and it will vanish after next 24hrs

    An another upper air cyclonic circulation presist over south Andaman Sea….

    massive TS seen in kerala, karnataka, Tamil nadu, and some parts of Maharashtra due to LWD (line of wind discontinuty).

    Chennai and suburban areas of Chennai may expect some rains during next 24hrs…

    Temperatures will gradually increase in Tamil nadu in coming days….

  40. Gayle Storm!!! Making Landfall In Bengaluru… Be Careful Coud hit Your House..Lol..

  41. Bay of Bengal β€˜low’ delayed as Pacific typhoon looks the other way

    The Bay of Bengal has been witnessing some activity as depicted by the formation of a couple of cyclonic circulations to both the west and the east of the basin.

    But there is no indication of either of these into an anticipated low-pressure area just yet, which would have signalled the build-up to the long-drawn process of initiation of this year’s monsoon.

    No β€˜low’ yet

    Typhoon Noul raging in the northwest Pacific is expected to excite waters up to East China Sea – not South China Sea or further downstream in the Bay of Bengal, as was expected. Noul is also forecast to take a track off the Philippines and Taiwan and spin away towards the south of Japan. Another strong typhoon is forecast to originate from around where Noul was born in the west Pacific.

    On Wednesday, the US National Centres for Climate Prediction assessed that the southwest Bay off Sri Lanka could get to see some definitive churn from May 12 (Tuesday next).

    http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/industry-and-economy/agri-biz/bay-of-bengal-low-delayed-as-pacific-typhoon-looks-the-other-way/article7177498.ece

    • Sir, For this I made the following comment earlier today. Now MJO-making definite entry to phase 6 in coming 1 week or so.

      MJO phase 6 (similar to phase 2) has the capability to create good convection (might be indirect way through walker cell-mechanism) over GOM/SWBOB thus a System. The famous system is Nisha-2008 with MJO phase 6. At present MJO forecasted to enter phase 6. So hope the anticipated system will evolve close to TN before mid-may.

      http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

  42. S—et has a blog or wat seems thy have evolved a lot since I seen..new girls with revealing oufits now provide forecasts :0 blindly imitating western agencies.. No substance though..

  43. Susa You Are Great…KXIP–^Bangladesh You Told This… Clarified and Confirmed….lol…

  44. Mild breeze helping to keep the temperatures under check outside, hope its mild inside here as well…:)

  45. It may or may not rain this may, but hey some say system in bay all the way…but no way, coz u wake up to a sunny day all thro may…

  46. latest GEM showing very intense cyclone very near to chennai.. with massive to super massive rains pounding chennai and NTN coasts

      • No Sesh, I understand , the actual summer or the real summer has not started..Its just that i wanted to share this pic thinking about the weeks ahead..Hope you read my observations about the cities temperatures yesterday around 3 pm in the blog,,

        This was my post yesterday..
        Been outside amost since 12pm, hardly any signs of typical Madras Summer..It’s so comfortable , you don’t even feel like wearing coolers which normally is an ideal companion once April starts. Expecting this honeymoon to end soon once SWM sets in over Andaman islands..Last year too we had a comfortable fortnight or so and only to be shown the reality with 12 days of 40 plus temperatures I guess.

  47. Since last one week, the max high temperature reaches the peak around 9.45 am and only to drop down after that…Probably this may continue for few more days. Mid May, mornings should be warm and humid and the max high should peak around 12 or 1 Pm with temps hovering arond 38 or 39 deg..Hopefully sea breeze should set early to cool things down..Normally sea breeze sets in around 1pm to 2pm during Mid May and gradually the onset gets delayed as we near June…Lets hope there is some respite with early onset of sea breeze in the weeks to come..

  48. The Non-frontal Low Pressure over Comorin and Adjoining South Arabian Sea is the reason for the Convective activity over Lakshadweep and Kerala.

    A non frontal low pressure system has characteristics of both tropical and extra tropical cyclones. The upper level cold low with circulation extending to surface level with maximum sustained winds spreading across 100 miles radius from the center. In comparison to cyclones these systems will cover wide areas with convectivity.

    This is a Tropical and Extra-Tropical Interaction.

  49. Yesterday Wonderful Day!!!
    1.GEM Showing Cyclone Slamming NTNSAP
    2.Salman Khan Arrested For Killing Poor
    3.ODM Back To Blog
    4.Gayle Storm

    • yes true.. tis one may be suppressed. there shld be a twin system in indian ocean if it was an enhanced one

    • very hard to differentiate the convection anomalies wen there is a multiscale wave interaction happens around.

      • Is it not an UAC over Comorin area, then we shall call it extra tropical cyclones, which will not strengthen into a Cyclone or Hurricane.

        I agree that Extra Tropical or Subtropical cyclones may form beyond Tropic of Cancer over Northern Hemisphere and below Tropic of Capricorn over Southern Hemisphere.

        Since there is an interaction of Tropic and Extra Tropic this circulation may not strengthen. This is why i said why not we call it as Extra Tropical System.

      • yeah.. whenever equatorial wave propagates ,interaction between tropics and sub tropics wil b clear.and btw ur interest on our field is blooming out of control.. unstoppable

      • moreover mjo may also suppress the convection in bay as it is anchored in unfav phase

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