453 thoughts on “Uncomfortable days ahead

  1. models showing N/NE turn for present west-pacific typhoon after nearing Philippines coast. But even no need to take N/NE curve too. It must not cross 15N to generate good eastward propagation fresh WWB.

    For example 2013’s super typhoon Haiyan generated powerful WWB due to its complete travel below 15N in W/NW direction that crossed Philippines horizontally.

    So Elnino-2015 needs “Haiyan” type typhoon. Otherwise we need to forget Elnino in 2015 (but only Elnino-like conditions will be there similar to 2014 phenomenon till the present Kelvin wave completely surfacing at east-pacific).

  2. Today the ‘Agni Natshatram’ starts and ends at may 29. Easterlies persist still chances for showers in one or two places and temp in chennai to stay around 35.

  3. yesterday night in my dreams i saw that rain is pounding chennai and i was caught in a road due to water till my chest… then however i reached home… i saw my RG readings… it was 610mm!in 4 hrs then i switched on my phone came to kea blog and saw different readings from area wise nunga 630mm in 4 hrs, DGP office 700mm in 4 hrs, and meenambakkam, 650mm in 4 hrs

  4. தமிழகம், புதுச்சேரியில் இன்று மழை பெய்யும்: வானிலை ஆய்வு மையம் அறிவிப்பு

  5. it is invariably the second half of may to first week of June the hottest period compared to the whole of Agni period…

  6. 5.6 magnitude quake strikes New Zealand –
    ============================================
    A 5.6 magnitude earthquake has struck 30km north west of Wanaka, on the South Island of New Zealand. Hundreds of people felt tremors, registered by the local geological hazard information service as “severe.”

    There were no immediate reports of damage after the initial quake struck at 2:29pm local time. The USGS registered the depth of the quake at 10km.

  7. Yesterday night passing showers with severe lightning.

    TN daily rainfall

    Sholavandan (Madurai Dist)
    4

    Vadipatti (Madurai Dist), Marungapuri (Trichy Dist)
    3 each

    Manapparai (Trichy Dist), Nannilam (Tiruvarur Dist)
    2 each

    Periyar (Theni Dist), Nilakottai (Dindigul Dist), Valparai pto (Coimbatore Dist), Tirumangalam (Madurai Dist), Muthupet (Tiruvarur Dist)

    1 each

  8. Very unusual summer this is. Its already peak summer period and temp hovering around 33.5c
    Looks like summer is delayed for Chennai this year.

  9. Pleasant and Cloudy with Sunny Intervals on the start of Kathiri Day. Summer Failure for Chennai 😉

  10. CAN anyone tell about southwest monsoon rains in chennai (2005)::::: intensity and rains?????

    • 2005 …SWM season for Nunga.. June..31 mm, July..152 mm, August..56 mm, September..98 mm…Except for July 152mm (42% excess over normal) SWM was below normal in 2005.

      May ..31 mm, April..83 mm in 2005.

      October…1078.mm, November..608, December..422mm.

      Total annual rainfall in 2005 for Nunga..2566mm.. Excess by 84%.

  11. Since lot of discussions happening around May temperatures , would like to post an interesting fact about May 2004.. Have posted this info before. 2004 May was one of those rare years where not even a single day Nunga recorded or touched that dreaded 40 degrees Celsius mark. As all are aware May had a real wet start in 2004, not just Madras., entire TN benefited from ARB 01.

  12. Jamstec long range model run 24/4/15 predict above normal rain for Kerala ktk coast, ne India andamans from jun to Aug

  13. Weekday? 45 degrees? No problem say our Lions! Always present to support the Super Kings

  14. This is absolute non sense! it is not 45 degrees in Chennai! In fact, the weather is way better today! Max of 34 C! Very uncharacteristic of a summer day in Chennai.. Creating so much hype about Chennai heat is something i hate..

    • May be its pitch temp.. On direct sunlight temp meters show higher values but standard technique is measuring in shade tat gives right air temp

      • Yeah usually people during IPL match talk of the pitch temp. ..Remember a guy two years back took a reading from the pitch and said ,”It is burning hot here @ 46 deg C”, whereas , at that time , the sea breeze had set in and the air temp. was just reading 36 deg C …
        It was an exaggerating statement made by him, by comparing pitch heat and comparing to the feel

      • Not to worry Krishna, forget the heat n humidity, ask any International or National cricketer as to where they like to play an International match n perform well. I bet 9 out of 10 cricketers would vouch for Chepauk as their first choice. No where in the world, a cricketer will get to see a sporting ,knowledgeable crowd (Read as Gentlemen )watch cricket and appreciate a good game. A cricketer would always prefer knowledgeable crowd and would be ready to compromise on harsh weather he may encounter.If I can add, the current stadium was engineered to allow breeze to pass between the stands n provide comfortable Playing conditions.

      • Oh yes chepauk will b an ultimate test for players fitness..tat too a 5 day game

      • Who can forget the mamoth effort of Dean Jones when he scored those 210 runs at Chepauk (Tied Test Match.September.1986.)on trying n unforgiving conditions…That was September heat with more of strong westerlies coupled with high humidity. Was there watching the match from ‘B’ stands then. Till date, he rates that innings as his best ever..Reason is simple, Scoring runs under adverse conditions n emerging a hero.
        If you all can excuse me, would copy paste an interesting piece on Madras heat n the way Aussies handled it..Here it goes..
        Jones struggled to control his bodily functions in the extreme heat, urinating involuntarily and vomiting, and he went to tea on 202 not out. He didn’t want to return to the crease, but was taunted by Border that if he wasn’t up to the job “we’ll get a Queenslander out here”, meaning the next man, Greg Ritchie. (Jones is a Victorian.)

        I didn’t want to come out after tea. I was 202 and I was just gone. Simmo and AB just pushed me out and said, “You’re batting.” When you’re urinating in your pants and vomiting 15 times, you’ve got massive problems. It wouldn’t happen now because of litigious players and workplace safety. Should we be playing in 42 degrees? We go off for rain but we don’t go off when it’s 42.

        When he was eventually dismissed for 210, Jones was rushed to hospital and put on a saline drip. But he returned to the Test and saw some outstanding work from his team-mates, including Greg Matthews, who famously wore a long-sleeved jumper in the Madras heat.

        He made 70-odd runs and took ten wickets. He actually asked for a long-sleeved jumper on the last day, which blew everyone away. Then he parked himself on the boundary in front of the Indian team and told them, “It’s not hot, we love it like this”, and started to yabber away at them. He was unbelievably great, grew an extra leg.

    • The issue is, few things gets hyped or spoken about when it comes to Madras. Heat and humidity should rank highest amongst all talking points of this great city for n outsider..May be that anchor has never come here before n he would have been cautioned or warned about the weather conditions of May.. When you hold the mike. You got to say something..No wonder Vishal Dikshit,(he got to be from Bombay) has chosen to speak without even checking the facts.
      May we should ask Vishal Dikshit to come here n experience the real heat after May 20th when westerlies set in and show it’s true colours in June 1st or 2nd week. ..

  15. current rainfall around som places in TN are not convective/veppasalanam rains.. its due to circulation near srilanka…

  16. MME Model forecast for rainfall anomaly sees marginal positive values for coastal Tamil Nadu increasing from week 3 through week 4 of May month …..

  17. Regarding the ground temp… 40 + is the playing pitch conditions n temp not the air temp.. Bfor chepauk used to b furnace with whole concrete structure surrounding the players, now it has been revamped to the stage where sea breeze is let inside the area..it has made life slightly better for the players..but still som commentators n ppl not educated enough to know the difference between playing square n real air temp..weather report should b made in a way actual temperature and pitch temperature are displayed to avoid som confusions

  18. Massive storm in kerala tn entire karnata in satellite nothing in radar can some one tell me which one is true ?

  19. The nxt. Typhoon in W.Pacific is also expected to be quite intense …Looking at 500 hPa gpm contours concentration in it …the intense nature is quite evident ….

    And also just above the PBL wind speeds expected is around 180 kmph …

  20. Till Now the Places which have Crossed 39 – 40’C Temperature Mark This Year.

    Vellore – 41.4 on 4th apr
    Trichy – 41.3 on 3rd apr
    Salem – 40.6 on 19th mar
    Karur Paramathi – 39.5 on 3rd apr
    Tirupathur – 39.4 on apr 7th
    Madurai – 39.4 on 4th apr
    Dharmapuri – 39 on 3rd apr

  21. today temp was less but humidity was above 60 this could mark the beginning of “Agni natchtiram”

  22. Chennai Temperature Highest of this Year.

    Meenambakkam – 38 on 3rd Apr
    Nungambakkam – 37.5 on 2nd May

  23. Temperature Today in Tamilnadu and Puducherry (04/05/2015).
    KATHIRI starts from Today though Temperature is Not as High in Tamilnadu.

    High Min Temp
    Nagapattinam & Chennai Nungambakkam – 29.0’C

    Trichy
    38.3
    27.2
    Madurai
    37.7
    26.3
    Vellore
    37
    27.2
    Karur Paraamthi
    37
    25
    Tondi
    35.8
    28.4
    Coimbatore
    35.8
    25
    Kanyakumari
    35.6
    27.4
    Dharmapuri
    35.5
    23.2
    Cuddalore
    35.4
    27.7
    Salem
    35.2
    26.4
    Pamban
    34.8
    28.2
    Chennai Meenambakkam
    34.7
    27.7
    Chennai Nungambakkam
    34.6
    29
    Puducherry
    34.4
    28
    Adirampatnam
    34.1
    26.5
    Karaikal
    33.7
    28.8
    Thoothukudi
    31.5
    25.9
    Parangipettai

    28
    Tirupathur

    16

    Valparai
    27
    16
    Coonoor
    25.6
    15.4
    Kodaikanal
    19
    13

  24. Tamilnadu Rainfall ending 8.30am Today (04.05.2015) in Centimeters

    Sholavandan (Madurai Dist) – 4

    Vadipatti (Madurai Dist), Marungapuri (Trichy Dist) – 3

    Manapparai (Trichy Dist), Nannilam (Tiruvarur Dist) – 2

    Periyar (Theni Dist), Nilakottai (Dindigul Dist), Valparai pto (Coimbatore Dist), Tirumangalam (Madurai Dist), Muthupet (Tiruvarur Dist) – 1

  25. Heavy rains lash CBE right from Peelamedu till areas like Thadagam road, Vadavalli, TNAU from 5.30 pm onwards today.

  26. LPA will be forming over north Andaman sea by May 20 according to GFS?? Its less reliable due to long-range forecast 🙂

  27. What do u think will be the temp in Marina beach…there, no question of sea breeze setting..its alwys there or it is not?

  28. If we get system in may month??? Does it ll affect ts on June, July in chennai????? Because very poor rainfall recorded on both 2004 2010 in the month of June and july

      • SWM in 2010 was too good for us..
        June–137 mm…80% surplus.
        July–158 mm….48% surplus.
        Aug–232.4 mm–74 % surplus.
        Sep–120.2 mm.—9% deficient.

        Year total..1614 mm for Nunga. Very good year overall..Not to forget that 204 mm in May–Courtesy Laila O Laila….

  29. Last Year May Moisture Filled Easterlies System.

    Most of the South Tamilnadu Battered and North Tamilnadu to. Papanasam got 400mm on that day.

    • Probably around May 15 we can expect it to touch 40 deg..That is the period when you slowly start feeling South westerly breeze trying to make its presence felt…Transition period so to say…

    • Humidity will always be more when we have this sort of Mid 30″s temperatures going on with some cloud cover..Once when the temps starts touching 40’s ,with clear skies, we may just feel hot air blowing across with less humidity..Something like what one experiences in places like Hyderabad, Delhi etc…

  30. Rsrao was mentioning the Low forming over Andaman by 20th, that is not only a Low, but it is South West Monsoon onset over Andaman Islands, as you all know this is the first place that monsoon strikes.

    SWM onset likely between 15th to 18th.

  31. Andipatti (Theni Dist)

    8

    Tiruvarur (Tiruvarur Dist)

    4

    Sankarankoil (Tirunelveli Dist), Thiruthuraipoondi (Tiruvarur Dist), Nanguneri (Tirunelveli Dist), Manimutharu (Tirunelveli Dist), Kuzhithurai (Kanyakumari Dist)

    3 each

  32. Back to back systems in West Pacific in the next few days time. This will strengthen the westerly winds over North Indian Ocean and South Bay.

    First one already formed and expected to hit north Philippines coast by 09th.
    The second one likely by 13th over the same area.

    • What are you doing Hari…You are not sending or diverting any TS towards Agumbe for the last few months..Chupke chupke mazza paareho…

  33. IMD:
    -The upper air cyclonic circulation over southwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining Srilanka now lies over south Tamilnadu and adjoining comorin area and extends upto 2.1 km above mean sea level.
    -An upper air cyclonic circulation over south Andaman sea and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal extending upto 1.5 km above mean sea level persists.

  34. IOD has become Positively Neutral for the past 3 weeks and it is consistently on this trend.

    Since December 2014 the IOD was negatively neutral, couple of time it became positively neutral but did not last longer, but this time IOD is consistently on the positive side, this is good sign to become strongly positive in the next few weeks.

    If it becomes Strongly Positive before July, it is good for SWM season all over India, based on this only SKY met would have forecasted normal monsoon.

    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/iod_1.txt

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