May and June are normally the hottest months for Chennai and its no different this year. Temperature is expected to peak in the next 2 weeks. By next week Chennai could record 38-39 C.
*Forecast courtesy of Accuweather
May and June are normally the hottest months for Chennai and its no different this year. Temperature is expected to peak in the next 2 weeks. By next week Chennai could record 38-39 C.
*Forecast courtesy of Accuweather
KeaWeather Archives 
then no May-rains for Chennai???
Hopefully it rains…
Even the rains wouldn’t bring down the May heat for long.
Back to the US?
yes rajesh
In this May month,
Rains are guaranteed for S. TN, at the same time more heat also possible…
Eastern end of SWM-axis can be seen in yellow circle. It looks foundation for BOB-system/BOB-SWM-onset dynamics (red circle) is taking slowly.
For full pledged dynamical establishment the energy (both spin & translational/spiral) related to eastern end of SWM-axis must be transferred to red-circle/new BOB-vortex.
In conclusion:
BOB-slowly setting dynamics for onset of SWM via the forecasted May 2nd/3rd week system??
http://www.indiaspend.com/cover-story/for-indias-farmers-harder-life-ahead-latest-studies-77368
[P] 14 days
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Tu May 05We May 06Th May 07Fr May 08Tmin
18-0628°C29°C29°C29°CTmax
06-1835°C37°C38°C37°Cmorning
24-06a.m.
06-12p.m.
12-18evening
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Last updated: Fr, 01 May, 01:26 BST
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Your Site From 5th May it is going to be cloudy
Wml skirting through lanka and parts of south tn was the last update from gfs..
Once the Australian cyclone weakens, then dynamics will speed up. Moreover models will show exact system and its target.
Reminder regarding the Contest #2. Entries closes at 12 noon
http://www.kea.metsite.com/contest.php
Good morning all. I am trying to do google analytics for our blog to get to know how the performance of blog is, Hope there is no concerns in this.
What kind of concern?
Just asking in case. Will post the results soon
Owing to a wave activity,a disturbance is expected to form in south indian ocean by next week. It might play a very major role in deciding the point of genesis of bob system.. when the formation area falls close to Sri Lanka landmass ,then the intensification factor gets hindered so system may be of weak intensity as wml or minimal depression and move west nw like what v saw in 2004 ,2014 may 1st week system.. note: above statement is a pure assumption based on gfs update. It may/mayn’t change in next update.
Exactly Sel , but guess , a pulse/incipient vortex max. somehow shifts near to SE bay region , in case of Mahasen , same Sri Lanka area had been picked up by models in the early days , even expecting a big system close by . But in actual , the point of genesis slowly moved eastwards ….The region west of Sumatra , guess has some significant upper level PV that mostly sucks in any vortex to begin from that area …Yeah but sometimes Comorin area gets an upper hand too…Pre monsoon season cyclones are very tough to locate at initial stages ….
Just a recap of what was expected by GFS back then in 2013 …..
In one of the article on pre monsoon cyclones of Bob and scs, author had tried to relate the energy pulse from scs system thru diverging upper level anticyclone help in developing bob pre monsoon cyclone..but again it’s not a must case condition or regular pattern.In 2006 bay took a lead by hosting vscs mala followed by a system in w.Pacific but in 2008 typhoon neoguri initiated first in w.Pacific ,succeeded by nargis in bay.. so there is no proper satisfying relationship exist between w.Pacific n bob during spring cyclone season
30-Apr, 3:45pm, photo of Rain in Bangalore. #weather https://instagram.com/p/2HDzjnOqpE/
Iwm
lovely pics
Gonna be a very hot day unbearable heat already
Actually, Thanjavur is faring well. Not all that humid and manageable 36-37
Heat coupled wit asphalt is untolerable its lot better under shade n trees ..unfortunate not much trees left standing ;(
No cyclone till May 17th. Gokul looks like Cyclone will form in Central Bay rather than SW bay near SL. Models are confused. ECMWF (King of Cyclones) of GFS (King of Rain). None of them picking it right.
– http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015050100/gfs_mslp_pcpn_ind_52.png
That’s what I have been saying. We might have a very dry hot May
Kea Weather. As our Cyclone Expert Gokul, says very very difficult to predict where the genesis will be.
PJ I doubt that whether there will be a cyclone or low pressure area….
LPA is for sure 5000%
ECMWF hasn’t changed its prediction…
ECMWF is the king ♔ of all models
No jupie. ECMWF king of Cyclones, not rains.
Oh I see
This is the most interesting characteristic of May Cyclones, circulation would build from nowhere and just overnight , models go clueless at times …..
May has seen Cyclones sometimes forming very close to TN coast and has once crossed in a 24 hr period very swift …
Something like this ………..
We have no time to track it all the way ……
Guess this would a life time dream !!!
When did that above track happened
date and year is marked on the right top corner
Ok
Hot India https://scontent.cdninstagram.com/hphotos-xpa1/t51.2885-15/e15/11184532_1438194183142236_967049872_n.jpg
IWM
source Ogimet – here is the list
http://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynext?lang=en&state=India&rank=100&ano=2015&mes=05&day=01&hora=03&Send=send
kurnool today can be in top ten today…according to imd station readings….today easily kurnool can record above 42.5…..yesterday some how due to some clouds the temperature cooled down to 41.7
But other than IMD readings…medak….adilabad also going to record high temperatures…
media here focusing on all local weather readings especially coal belt areas
As per a survey Chennai looses 1500 trees per yr due to illegal cutting 😦
Since when cutting trees is illegal in Chennai?
8 entries received for todays contest. Where is everyone. Hurry and take part and challenge others. Deadline is in 30 minutes time
Thermal Low taking its position in NW India and adjoining Pakistan ….
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/nwp/00hgfs_mslp.htm
Sakshi media in AP records nearly 54 local weather stations temperatures live…
They will be as accurate as IMD readings…..
They are even updating the temperature readings in coal mining areas also
Today chennai may expect thunder showers as moisture content and wind pattern is conducive
Latest ECMWF run shows a Depression/WML over SW BOB off SL coast..!
May Cyclone Rainfall in Chennai in the last 100 years – Tamil Nadu Weatherman / Kea Weather Special Analysis
===============================
May is the hottest month in Chennai. No one comes out in the Noon. Roads are traffic free during this period. Special movies in Sun TV are put up in during afternoon. IMD stats show 1990 May as the wettest May ever. But 1952 was even wetter as per my records.
Stats show that once in every 7 years we get 100 mm rainfall in the month of May from Cyclones. Since 2010 (Cyclone laila) we have not got any. Will this May be the one ? Models are picking some kind of system in BoB in 2nd week. Can it become a cyclone and will Chennai get 100 mm this may.
May 1903 – 135 mm
May 1909 – 241 mm
May 1918 – 147 mm
May 1925 – 103 mm
May 1930 – 207 mm
May 1940 – 135 mm
May 1943 – 374 mm
May 1949 – 230 mm
May 1952 – 452 mm
May 1955 – 181 mm
May 1962 – 112 mm
May 1967 – 100 mm
May 1979 – 136 mm
May 1990 – 409 mm
May 2004 – 211 mm
May 2010 – 204 mm
Watch more at Kea weather and Tamil Nadu weatherman in tracking the May climate – PJ
Cyclone Laila 2010 clouds over Chennai – http://www.nasa.gov/images/content/455804main_Laila-MODISLarge.jpg
super stats…
West Pacific express is being put back into action ….with series of storms making their way towards Philippines ….
High pressure region just poleward of these sitting firm just right on the ocean surfaces …
Luzon to start bearing the annual start……..
ECMWF analysis suggesting of the heat distribution pattern related to High Pressure pattern just hugging the planetary boundary layer is adiabatically compressing the air mass just inside the 850 hPa layer ………
end of surface hpa in bob after a couple of months reign and tat ends the easterly wind flow to tn coast as well ..lets welcome westerly winds with hot days
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/nwp/00hgfs_925wind.htm
I was about to ….U did it 🙂
Yes Sel, gradually a complete HPA curvature is getting weakened .Except for the mild curvature near the Andamans
Sel,see the westerly streamline flux south of Sri Lanka , we get that green shadow (15-30 knts) right …?? In some days
burst of westerly winds…two in one if the 2nd week system forms actually ..monsoon will b right on track for s.bay and andaman islands..
yes hopefully
Today temperature looks hot than normal…….34.8 c still in 1.30 pm
Happy May Day Everyone….!!!! Especially the Experts Working on Weather everyday!!!…Keep Rocking…
Strong system in Bay s not possible next week.
When there is a strong system forming in West Pacific at the same time and westerly are slowly forming over Indian Ocean region, it is tough for any system to form in Bay and the convective activity is getting absorbed towards West Pacific from Bay.
System in Bay is possible only when the system in West Pacific starts to weaken.
The next week system will be a Low or D.
The pulse in BOB will arise when West-pacific typhoon touches Philippines.
Then it’ll affect TN and AP only
then tats just about perfect…ten it is sure to affect TN
A nice article why warm nino 3.4 SST doesn’t favor BOB-cyclogenesis.http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2011JC007417/full
அந்தமான்அருகே காற்றழுத்த தாழ்வு நிலை: மழைக்கு வாய்ப்பு – Low pressure off Andaman as per Dinamalar Flash
அந்தமானில் நிலநடுக்கம் – Earthquake in Andaman
Second Major Quake Strikes Papua New Guinea
A 6.7-magnitude earthquake has hit Papua New Guinea, followed by an even more intense aftershock measuring 7.1.http://news.sky.com/story/1475815/second-major-quake-strikes-papua-new-guinea
some tiny strong popups towards W
Lakshminarayana • 3 hours ago
Today chennai may expect thunder showers as moisture content and wind pattern is conducive
will it?
windpattern not conducive
oh..where should the ts should form to reach us?
in the sea
If only troughs are responsible for these rains, why don’t you see thunderstorms forming in the morning hours ? Rami, convection/veppasalanam is the most important thing for weather without which this world will be an uninhabited place.
Earthquake in Andaman
bayama irukku
😛 no tectonic plates here don’t worry
Chennai is in seismic zone 3 right? I believe after the Sumatra quake chennai moved from zone 2 to 3..
In sea.. good tat Nepal earthquake has created awareness
Good Reply. Why we are seeing red spots at 11 a.m. These are pure LWD rains. Nothing Else. Heat plays a role. Like wise Sea Breeze too. Troughs create instabilty and lift the air parcels.Heat Enhance it. In Kanyakumari rains are happening in Morning 8.00 am without heat. Still IMD says Veppa Salanam. What Nonsense.
Last time Chennai got 100 mm rains on morning at 8.00 am did heat had anything to do with it ? NO
Why is everyone saying Veppa Salanam for everything. Even IMD Pune stated the trough as reason. Always Believe IMD Pune not IMD Chennai..
I’m not saying those were convectional rains, just saying that a good portion of Chennai’s 140 cm won’t fall without convection..
Agreed. See the chart i posted maddy. It wass massive LWD.
Is Veppasalanam a concept THAT HARD to understand ? It’s about RELATIVE heat and temperature and not absolute values for god’s sake.
Then why don’t chennai gets rains daily in SWM season despite hot & humid conditions (like Bangalore getting now) Susa
Lol… I just said it’s not about absolute values.. Chennai is closer to the coast than other areas so the interiors are obviously hotter. As a result thunderstorms form in the interiors almost everyday
Yeah , it’s all about the moist instability conditions reaching thresholds to increase buoyancy and saturation temp. and pressure , it varies on a spatial and temporal scales ….
Why this is not happening over chennai during SWM frequently??
Because neighbouring places are hotter ?
So chennai never gets direct Vs rains??
it can and it has
In SWM most T’storms form slightly in the interiors and move eastwards with increase in time . In interiors especially close to the eastern ghats , we have lifting of air parcels taking place due to convective instability and supported by orographic conditions that provide an additional dynamic lifting to these parcels to reach heights ..In SWM the subcontinent is filled with great amounts of latent heat that as a driving energy keeps the lower to mid Troposphere with moist conditions relatively. This moist air has usually a lesser lapse rate @ 6 deg C per km increase in altitude, a lapse rate just > 6 deg C /km can provide the much required instability and buoyancy …
Added with these factors , sea breeze adds to the moisture content at lower levels .
And by diurnal heating the inland low expands and extends southwards to lower latitudes providing a part of the dynamic instability .
But the main reason for more convectional rains in pre monsoon is that the contrast in temp. between the upper and lower levels is quite great compared to SWM …
Mechanisms vary a bit in both seasons
Paragraph Gokul is back _/_
Ha ha 😀
This is is clear and clever answer without touching VS/trough terms
Right tats y models fail to predict ts exactly whereas thy do so spot on for trough related rains…
Well even trough related rains can turn into huge flops.. remember the WB storms predicted by gfs that were supposed to occur yday and the day before ?
Gokul has given clear and clever answer without touching VS/Trough terminology
S very strange big miss tat
Yes it hard when IMD Pune says trough and IMD chennai says Veppa Salanam.
I have seen in Kea blog and many are posting that good moisture available today and there will be hot day. They all think it will rain. But it never does. They are fooled by Veppa Salanam rains.
One needs to understand that veppasalanam storms don’t form in coastal areas and have to move into areas near the seas
Agreed. moist Winds blowing into Heat Lows. Thats Veppa Salanam Rains. but not yesterday rains. as many stated
PJ you seems to be allergic towards the term Veppa Salanam and everyone provoke you with this term it appears
Storms are far too west of blore to have impact here as of now. Have to see if anything new develops closer
Fun fact : Sea breeze and land breeze won’t occur without veppasalanam/convection currents
Susa, what’s this current? I think it’s pressure gradient generated by temperature gradient
Yes. Hot air rises and there is lower pressure into which cold air causing higher pressure moves.
Key terms – Lower, higher and NOT low, high
Travelling to Tirupathi and presently at nagari. I could see the TS very nearby NW.
In tirumala
I know this is off topic, but please excuse me once. Bangladesh > KXIP
Is this fine KXIP << Bangla ?
yes perfect
Lol
Then what is Pakistan?
good question
273/0 in 61 overs bangladesh hammering Pakistan in 2nd innings.
Maddy not against Veppa Salanam. But everthing should not be called like that. Today IMD Pune said this
The trough extends from southeast Uttar Pradesh to north Tamil Nadu across east Madhya Prdesh, Chattisgarh and interior Andhra Pradesh and now extends upto 1.5 kms a.s.l.
Now Co-relate the Pop-ups – Its over AP till north TN – http://www.imd.gov.in/section/dwr/dynamic/doppler-ppz.htm
Most of the days synoptic conditions like troughs at som levels descend/extend across the country thy may not produce rains every time alone..IMD in general calls as vs rains because of the heat
Why not they are there to tell right reasons. Thats what they are paid for.
pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) index weakening for the last 2-3 months. This may effect the strength of Elnino (if it forms). In conclusion Elnino-2015 may be weaker one
Note: PDO value peaked simultaneously with Elnino-strength during previous strong episodes.
http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest
@anyone
has been “weak regular elninos” in the past other than elnino-modoki-varition???
It seems that an IR wave would kick start symmetric vortices on either side of the equator , helping each other , the Bay vortex is expected to propagate northwards into SE Bay with some rains filled in it , slightly in a less organised way
Simultaneously , a short peak in westerly surge is seen in South Bay in the coming 4 or 5 days ….
The southern hemispheric equatorial vortex near Sumatra , seems to be an elongated one , and is just binding equatorial westerlies for north Indian ocean Bay region , making the Bay vortex a rain associated one ……and this Bay vortex would remain a bit concentrated relatively …..
MJO to remain weak into Mid May …..
So no system??
Should be taken as no role or support is expected from MJO side at least …….System chances should not be written off completely ….
【M5.2】ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION Depth 10km May 01, 2015 08:58:41 UTC (G)http://j.mp/1Q5YvcK (EMSC)http://j.mp/1I2CwCm
May has started in all fairness..Hyderabad today is just boiling hot..It’s 5.45 pm and the temperature is hovering around 41 degrees Celsius. Devoid any breeze, conditions are unforgiving really.
Come back to chennai. It’s like heaven
Nice one…
Yeah Sure. Came here day before yesterday and today easily the hottest day in terms of no letting up of Max temps even at this hour. Itching to get back .
Enjoying Hyderabad weather……….??
Shamshaabad is reeling under 42.6 degree temperature…
Honestly not enjoying, same time I was mentally prepared for this sort of dry heat here. Normally I avoid coming to Hyb in April till June. Other than these 3 months, one can manage the weather here quite comfortably.
Another hot day…how come summer alwys sets on time unlike ne monsoon…
We live in the semi arid tropics …
Kurnool 41.4
Mahaboobnagar 42.5
Hyderabad shamshaabad airport 42.6
Hyderabad begampet airport 41.2
Temperature in Kurnool did not go up 42 because of a thunderstorm
Recent gfs shows very heavy rain for tn coast and also not allowing the weak disturbance to move away from north tn-s.ap stretch…
Sel , is it something triggered off by some wave activity ??
It should b initiated from any wave activity.
weak system steered west to TN. Strong System steered away from TN Coast to WB / Bangla / Burma. We dont need Cyclone. We need WML / Depression
Should move in slowly to our side in a weaker state and intensify rapidly to a min Cyclone just offshore 50 kms …
I would wish for it
But shear and hpa are very dominating…………..
Are u talking of now ?
Yep….I am little confused
“Will that weak mjo boost a cyclone or create favourable conditions in BOB…..so that the shear can reduced..?
MJO will be having definite role
Seasonal Shear values are not a big deal until the Monsoon sets in …Systems have overcome shear in May month easily at most times ….MJO’s expected weak phase can lessen the chances of convective support , but systems is May can come out even without any support from MJO …..Always not a required condition
It is better we get depression or DD so that we get rains, cyclone does not bring much rains
Sir , slow moving strong cyclones can be equally wet ….but it has to be very slow , something like Nisha , which moved on an average speed of 6 kmph ….
GTS, u are aware that abundant energy available will make all cyclone intense during May. You cant expect Nisha in MAy
Yeah , not widespread as Nisha , but small area dumps , can be a mammoth …at least LF area
Today relative humidity is nearly 40 percent
Though it is just 41.4 degrees in kurnool
It is feeling unbearable….
We can not rule out the contribution of MJO towards any system/onset of SWM over andaman, which may enter MTC around May 2nd week.http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml
Rao, see this – http://envam1.env.uea.ac.uk/mjo_forecast.html
What is this new strange depression/DD is wetter than cyclones theory ??
Haha..
Nothing like that Maddy. We all know Cyclones dump such heavy rains than LPA. Its in May we prefer LPA rather than Cyclone due to the Steering Environment which normally takes system to curve away.
Cyclone Rocks. i have put stats of last 100 year rainfall. Let it be 1952 or 1990. Its Cyclonic Rainfall.
unfortunately most of the blog members think otherwise
Yea in May we obviously prefer LPA but problem is May has 2 much energy as u said and thanks to good conditions storms very rarely are weak
Yes yes exactly.. neglecting the intensity ,any disturbance off tn/lanka coast wud b fine n welcome in the month of may
KEA Blog. Filled with diversified persons with expertise all around areas. Nice to see all active even in Summer. Cheers.Hope Ehsan values the assests here.
Its a Team Blog unlike all other blogs in Chennai and India.
Yes true but only few assets are valued..an asset for one , may not be one for someone elee…:)
Rainman everyone should work hard. All wont be valued the Same. I can sense what u are trying to tell. Its pure hard work. Some come here to relax. Some come to get infos. some Just to see. Some are silent and never post. How can eveyrone be valued.
Even u come with breaks. I remember the night we had the other day. We were eager for rains. So few assets can be only valued. Its the passion. Here it is full of it. ITs not a one man show. Even i or GTS or anyone leave. The blog will run with same intensity.
One jammer in north bay ..but still it’s not clear . Let’s see in next few updates. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015050106/gfs_z500_vort_ind_53.png
Resembles a meteor targeting TN , a long tail of elongation
Omg,I din see the ridge one in s.east bay.. very tight situation
The GFS updates indicate very high shear though. That could be the only thing preventing a cyclone. Let’s watch how the shear pans out
I have some doubt regarding mjo and kelvin wave
Is kelven wave often generated by an mjo…..??
Is there any relation between between mjo occurence variations and ELNINO…??
If there are two strong cyclones…one in Northern Hemisphere (Anti clockwise) and the other in Southern Hemisphere (Clockwise)….at the same time if there is an emerging mjo travelling eastwards…..near the equator ….and if there is a lot of energy and humidity in troposhere…..what will happen……whether the mjo strenghtens and feed both the cyclones….I mean will the strengthening of mjo gets favoured by those cyclones……??
Tis is still in an area of intense debate.. kw have occurred in the leading and trailing edge of a mjo activity.
The thing is whether it is an enhanced phase or suppressed phase
If we take the case of suppressed phase
At what hpa level will the mjo travels…..and why does it travels only in the east direction
U can track in both lower level and upper level.. enhanced convection along with strong westerly anomalies at lower level,and if u r tracking at upper level ,u should go for velocity potential index which gives u an idea on divergence
Yes both the system gets aided in tat case. Possibly one with good favourable conditions,develop into a stronger one
…
Just 41 degrees Celsius right now at Secunderabad Railway Station. Look for the bottom line of the pic..Last updated at….
But the feel is 40 deg C ….a degree less than the actual
If it had been Chennai , feel for 41 may go up to 50 + deg C
The feel in chennai 45
Always special
Forget abour those real feel etc..You feel as though they have switched on the heater here..
U ll feel Chennai from tom. ……..
Yenpaa, GTS, why this K.V
I got acclamatised to hyd weather and kurnool….
Dont know how shiva feeling
Kiran, ikkada naaku chaala feeling aaipoindhi….Dry heat ekkuva undhi.Naan yen cheyalaa…
Ur telugu nalla irukku….yenaku teriyaadu
Evuntra babu gaaru, nu comedy chestaavaa..
Comedy illa shivagaaru…..kurnool cool hogaya……temp dipped to 37 now…but hyd is stubborn and is not cooling….may be hyd gift for u shiva gaaru
Ohh 37 degrees Celsius is cool at this time.. Kiran, yesterday n day before yesterday were much better. The temperature dipped after 4 pm to some extent. But not today.
Day before Yesterday kurnool temperature at 6 pm was 41
Its dry heat which is dangeous
what’s happening….. Gfs showing wml/depression in gom on 11th may till 13th may and shows rain bands not extending north till chn.. but its showing massive rains starting in coastal TN including chennai from 15/16th may….
that’s the magic 🙂
If u see forecast above +168 hrs suddenly thy blabber…:p
if the forecasted WML/DD targets NTN/SAP then it will be very rare and great start for SWM-2015 season especially for peninsular India.
powerful typhoon approaching Philippines by May 12th.
looking very very dangerous
Sea breeze is weak today still bit hot for comfort
i felt a strong breeze few mins back.. infact it was continous
Oh Might have picked up now.. Got a sense thro few runs in radar..
as usual ….
looks like Australia cyclone touched the coast. so we can expect some good pre-monsoon dynamics over BOB from now onwards 🙂
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=austwest&sat=wgms&prod=ir&zoom=&time=
Today’s high 36.3 nunga, 36.8 meenambakkam
GFS, GFS thaan!
Can we compare the forecasted typhoon with super-typhoon vongfong, which initiated strong pulse of Hudhud-2014 over BOB?
If so there is high probability for a BOB-system to target Indian east coast (with variable intensity to Hudhud-2014).
super-typhoon vongfong-2014: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Pacific_typhoon_season#/media/File:Vongfong_2014_track.png
forecasted typhoon: http://media.fyre.co/uAprcbicT2OlnoniOgs7_gfs_mslp_wind_wpac_43.png
Moreover a weak pulse of MJO-Kelvin will be there over BOB & adjoining MTC by mid-May.
So we can expect SC-BOB/adjoining SE-BOB to host the required pulse, which may further intensify depending on the available TCHP/ACE.
Temperature updates…
Hot Telangana Rayalaseema and Coastal AP….
TIRUPATI records 42.3 degree temperature (HIGHEST IN 2015)
Manuguru singareni coal belt head office – 45.9 (Highest in 2015)
Adilabad – 43.5 degrees (Highest in 2015)
Jangamaheswarapuram – 43.3 (Highest in 2015)
Nizamabad – 42.9
Tirupati – 42.3 (Highest in 2015)
kurnool – 41.3
Nellore – 41.0 (Highest in 2015)
Hyderabad (begumpet) – 40.8 (Highest in 2015)
Anantapur – 40.7
Kiran, I’m surprised seeing Nellore figures 41 degrees Celsius??
Yes Nellore and Tirupati…rocking today
Both recorded highest temperatures..
From the past 2 days temperatures in nellore are above 40 degrees
Yes, Begumpet 40.8 ..highest so far in 2015. Could sense it even at 7.30 pm..
Shiva….you should have visited singareni today….45.9…it could have been much enjoyable
Yes. Could have gone there in a. Air conditioned car with our getting down.
anything can’t be started by all of sudden by human-beings or by the nature.
if we see the latest upper-level wind analysis it looks BOB is getting ready for some-system (WML-Cyclone) by Mid-may.
Weak MJO+Kelvin wave will initiate the BOB-system on the foot-print of SWM-trough (ITCZ related), along with west-pacific typhoon will enhance the BOB-system’s dynamics.
upper-level winds: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=wvir&zoom=&time=
When do u expect onset of monsoon in Andaman? I think it will be around 20.
exactly
Nellore temperatures in last 5 days
May 1 – 41.0 degrees
April 30 – 40.6 degrees
April 29 – 40.0 degrees
April 28 – 39.5 degrees
April 27 – 39.2 degrees
An athlete will be proud of this gradual increase..Surely not the common man in Nellore..
No ses breeze at all…feeling exhausted coz of the heat
Good TCHP available over S-BOB & WC-BOB.
TCHP: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2015120ni.jpg
OMG….strong +ve SHA along the TN & AP coasts adjoining west-central/SW BOB. If any system comes to these coastal areas then that system will get abundant moisture within short time.
Overall system will feel riding on SHA roller-coaster, so can intensify many fold within short time.
Lucknow radar – maintenance since September 2014…
Ohh Lucknow has got a radar.. Well that’s news to me.. In all fairness..It’s LUCKNEVER..
Even SST-anomalies are in infavorable conditions along TN/AP-coasts especially near Chennai.
SST s are favorable for most part of the year
ha..ha..not always
OMG…something brewing over SC-BOB by May 17th??
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015050106/gfs_mslp_uv850_ind.html
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015050106/gfs_mslp_pcpn_ind.html
This UAC over SC-BOB is initiating under so many favorable conditions. Also need to worth watch that this UAC is establishing just after “west-Pacific Typhoon’s NE-turn (just like super typhoon Vongfong-2014’s NE turn that ignited Hudhud-2014′ UAC).
Rami, 1st time iam seeing a model reference from you….
I was excited to see the 1st spiral system over BOB. I am in a strong opinion that it will target indian east coast (as I said earlier).
Temperatures at 8 :30 pm now in AP
Nandikotkur – 36.0
Kurnool – 35.0
Anantapur – 35.0
Tirupati – 34.0
Ramagundam – 33
Hyderabad – 32.2
Source(weather underground and online sakshi weather)
Could the Atlantic hurricane season going to start very early this year?
Forecast looks that Atlantic ocean near USA-SE coast going to hoist first named “subtropical storm” (hybrid of tropical & non-tropical) of 2015-season by next Tuesday/Wednesday.
http://www.weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/atlantic-hurricane-season-early-start-subtropical-may-2015
How many of u aware??
hudhud caused 1/3rd deaths in Nepal 43 killed as it triggered avalanches in mt.Dhaulagiri all were hikers n guides..
Wth
yes remembered
yes avalanche..
Yeah it sucked in all moisture all the way , even it was in the Himalayas …full snow,,,,
Contest #3 is posted in contest page http://www.kea.metsite.com/contest.php
Pls participate and challenge others. Deadline is 12 noon
sureeee….
We need to still fight for net-neutralityhttp://m.indiatimes.com/news/india/how-the-indian-telecom-industry-is-still-fighting-to-kill-your-netneutrality-and-the-fight-to-stop-them-232330.html
Alert….alert….GFS again picked the cyclone for TN/AP by May17th
Looks awesome to see something spinning close to Chennai coast with cyclone intensity in gfs run but the forecast is beyond 10 days.. too long and unreliable. Let’s see http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015050118/gfs_z850_vort_ind_53.png
Enna boss.. ipdi sollitinga… thought of celebrating my India return with a cyclone 🙂
Another 68 runs to go…. so we can expect atleast 68 changes…..
Yeah definitely
Shot at Sulurpeta at 6.40 am today. Sun all in its glory early in the morning. Sign of things to come. .
Back to chennai???
Yes, just about reaching MAS Central.
Ecmwf is picking tis one for the 3rd day.. Tis is the one to watch out
Disaster occurred in chennai since 2000:::
1) huge wave tsunami- 2004
2) torrential rainfall Oct 2005- floods
3)flood caused by cyclone ogni – 2006
4) Nisha cyclone….. More rains low winds but caused flood Nov 2008
5) nilam cyclone…… More winds but caused minor damage to coastal parts if city……October 2012…………
yes in nilam days aftermath cyclone there was not heavy rains only 8 CM i guess but when you visit the beach it was like 20 CM but the true story was that it was STORM SURGE beach was fully flooded…
that is like disaster only people in those places were evacuated but when they came back only water was there….
very close to TN
OMG. Is Blog sleeping after seeing the post of Selva
noooo
What is this PJ …………..
GTS our Laila 2
Hmm….vandha it will be good ……
it’s sleeping because… Any how we all know.. gfs is gfs
dont under estimate May month
i know… but its changing frequently…..
Cyclones in May month & starting of oct month is always strong & dangerous..
Windshear – http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015050118/gfs_shear_ind_53.png
Low shear on route to Bangla / Burma
200 mb streamlines show why its coming close to TN – http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015050118/gfs_uv200_ind_53.png
May month disturbance for tamilnadu very rare one sir?
Very very rare one… But if reliable season is missing to give us rains,so nothing wrong in getting rains unfavorable season
finger crossed. Lets wait for summer rain….:D
Temp 33.7 at 9 am & 24 hrs diff is 1.6 c…By seeing this Today we will touch the first highest max of the year..
Waiing for ours new system on.may ….
UAC in BOB??
http://www.maalaimalar.com/2015/05/02053349/A-few-places-likely-to-rain-to.html
accuweather predict 38 C today will we??
Hi machi wat abt our maysystem iruka ilaya
hi dude,as of now models predict but no 100% confirmation it can disappear any time…
Thanks dude
Reminder regarding the contest. Pls send entries before noon
Sure shot of a system for NTN-SOrissa. It can’t go beyond. This is what I am trying to say for the past 2 days.
then TN?
NTN will definetly receive heavy rains from its shear effect (if not it).
surface level circulation exactly over kurnool…..
Current temperature 37 degrees
cloudless sky
Dry winds started blowing…..
This low is driving northwest dry winds..
Today might become hottest day till now
Till 10:00 am….temperature trend is as follows (kurnool)
5:30 am – 30 degrees (yesterday)
5:30 am – 31 degrees (Today)
8:30 am – 31 (yesterday)
8:30 am – 32.6 (Today)
10:00am – 33.6 (yesterday)
10:00am – 35.9 (Today)
recent run from gfs… no development from tat convectional area,its sweeping andaman islands and kick starting the monsoon
System guaranteed but intensity varies according to my yesterday valid points.
System guaranteed for tamilnadu?
It will almost touches NTN. Don’t have confidence in crossing. If it crosses NTN then it will create a record.
So almost rain confirmed for ntn?
Yes
Yipeeee…………………..;-)