Hot start to May expected

May and June are normally the hottest months for Chennai and its no different this year. Temperature is expected to peak in the next 2 weeks. By next week Chennai could record 38-39 C.

Untitled

*Forecast courtesy of Accuweather

618 thoughts on “Hot start to May expected

  1. Eastern end of SWM-axis can be seen in yellow circle. It looks foundation for BOB-system/BOB-SWM-onset dynamics (red circle) is taking slowly.

    For full pledged dynamical establishment the energy (both spin & translational/spiral) related to eastern end of SWM-axis must be transferred to red-circle/new BOB-vortex.

    In conclusion:
    BOB-slowly setting dynamics for onset of SWM via the forecasted May 2nd/3rd week system??

  2. [P] 14 days
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    Your Site From 5th May it is going to be cloudy

  3. Once the Australian cyclone weakens, then dynamics will speed up. Moreover models will show exact system and its target.

  4. Good morning all. I am trying to do google analytics for our blog to get to know how the performance of blog is, Hope there is no concerns in this.

  5. Owing to a wave activity,a disturbance is expected to form in south indian ocean by next week. It might play a very major role in deciding the point of genesis of bob system.. when the formation area falls close to Sri Lanka landmass ,then the intensification factor gets hindered so system may be of weak intensity as wml or minimal depression and move west nw like what v saw in 2004 ,2014 may 1st week system.. note: above statement is a pure assumption based on gfs update. It may/mayn’t change in next update.

    • Exactly Sel , but guess , a pulse/incipient vortex max. somehow shifts near to SE bay region , in case of Mahasen , same Sri Lanka area had been picked up by models in the early days , even expecting a big system close by . But in actual , the point of genesis slowly moved eastwards ….The region west of Sumatra , guess has some significant upper level PV that mostly sucks in any vortex to begin from that area …Yeah but sometimes Comorin area gets an upper hand too…Pre monsoon season cyclones are very tough to locate at initial stages ….

      Just a recap of what was expected by GFS back then in 2013 …..

  6. In one of the article on pre monsoon cyclones of Bob and scs, author had tried to relate the energy pulse from scs system thru diverging upper level anticyclone help in developing bob pre monsoon cyclone..but again it’s not a must case condition or regular pattern.In 2006 bay took a lead by hosting vscs mala followed by a system in w.Pacific but in 2008 typhoon neoguri initiated first in w.Pacific ,succeeded by nargis in bay.. so there is no proper satisfying relationship exist between w.Pacific n bob during spring cyclone season

      • Heat coupled wit asphalt is untolerable its lot better under shade n trees ..unfortunate not much trees left standing ;(

  7. 8 entries received for todays contest. Where is everyone. Hurry and take part and challenge others. Deadline is in 30 minutes time

  8. Sakshi media in AP records nearly 54 local weather stations temperatures live…
    They will be as accurate as IMD readings…..
    They are even updating the temperature readings in coal mining areas also

  9. May Cyclone Rainfall in Chennai in the last 100 years – Tamil Nadu Weatherman / Kea Weather Special Analysis
    ===============================
    May is the hottest month in Chennai. No one comes out in the Noon. Roads are traffic free during this period. Special movies in Sun TV are put up in during afternoon. IMD stats show 1990 May as the wettest May ever. But 1952 was even wetter as per my records.

    Stats show that once in every 7 years we get 100 mm rainfall in the month of May from Cyclones. Since 2010 (Cyclone laila) we have not got any. Will this May be the one ? Models are picking some kind of system in BoB in 2nd week. Can it become a cyclone and will Chennai get 100 mm this may.

    May 1903 – 135 mm
    May 1909 – 241 mm
    May 1918 – 147 mm
    May 1925 – 103 mm
    May 1930 – 207 mm
    May 1940 – 135 mm
    May 1943 – 374 mm
    May 1949 – 230 mm
    May 1952 – 452 mm
    May 1955 – 181 mm
    May 1962 – 112 mm
    May 1967 – 100 mm
    May 1979 – 136 mm
    May 1990 – 409 mm
    May 2004 – 211 mm
    May 2010 – 204 mm

    Watch more at Kea weather and Tamil Nadu weatherman in tracking the May climate – PJ

    Cyclone Laila 2010 clouds over Chennai – http://www.nasa.gov/images/content/455804main_Laila-MODISLarge.jpg

  10. West Pacific express is being put back into action ….with series of storms making their way towards Philippines ….
    High pressure region just poleward of these sitting firm just right on the ocean surfaces …
    Luzon to start bearing the annual start……..

  11. ECMWF analysis suggesting of the heat distribution pattern related to High Pressure pattern just hugging the planetary boundary layer is adiabatically compressing the air mass just inside the 850 hPa layer ………

  12. end of surface hpa in bob after a couple of months reign and tat ends the easterly wind flow to tn coast as well ..lets welcome westerly winds with hot days

  13. Happy May Day Everyone….!!!! Especially the Experts Working on Weather everyday!!!…Keep Rocking…

  14. Strong system in Bay s not possible next week.

    When there is a strong system forming in West Pacific at the same time and westerly are slowly forming over Indian Ocean region, it is tough for any system to form in Bay and the convective activity is getting absorbed towards West Pacific from Bay.

    System in Bay is possible only when the system in West Pacific starts to weaken.

    The next week system will be a Low or D.

  15. அந்தமான்அருகே காற்றழுத்த தாழ்வு நிலை: மழைக்கு வாய்ப்பு – Low pressure off Andaman as per Dinamalar Flash

  16. Lakshminarayana • 3 hours ago
    Today chennai may expect thunder showers as moisture content and wind pattern is conducive

    will it?

  17. If only troughs are responsible for these rains, why don’t you see thunderstorms forming in the morning hours ? Rami, convection/veppasalanam is the most important thing for weather without which this world will be an uninhabited place.

    • Good Reply. Why we are seeing red spots at 11 a.m. These are pure LWD rains. Nothing Else. Heat plays a role. Like wise Sea Breeze too. Troughs create instabilty and lift the air parcels.Heat Enhance it. In Kanyakumari rains are happening in Morning 8.00 am without heat. Still IMD says Veppa Salanam. What Nonsense.

      Last time Chennai got 100 mm rains on morning at 8.00 am did heat had anything to do with it ? NO

      Why is everyone saying Veppa Salanam for everything. Even IMD Pune stated the trough as reason. Always Believe IMD Pune not IMD Chennai..

      • I’m not saying those were convectional rains, just saying that a good portion of Chennai’s 140 cm won’t fall without convection..

  18. Is Veppasalanam a concept THAT HARD to understand ? It’s about RELATIVE heat and temperature and not absolute values for god’s sake.

    • Then why don’t chennai gets rains daily in SWM season despite hot & humid conditions (like Bangalore getting now) Susa

      • Lol… I just said it’s not about absolute values.. Chennai is closer to the coast than other areas so the interiors are obviously hotter. As a result thunderstorms form in the interiors almost everyday

    • Yeah , it’s all about the moist instability conditions reaching thresholds to increase buoyancy and saturation temp. and pressure , it varies on a spatial and temporal scales ….

      • In SWM most T’storms form slightly in the interiors and move eastwards with increase in time . In interiors especially close to the eastern ghats , we have lifting of air parcels taking place due to convective instability and supported by orographic conditions that provide an additional dynamic lifting to these parcels to reach heights ..In SWM the subcontinent is filled with great amounts of latent heat that as a driving energy keeps the lower to mid Troposphere with moist conditions relatively. This moist air has usually a lesser lapse rate @ 6 deg C per km increase in altitude, a lapse rate just > 6 deg C /km can provide the much required instability and buoyancy …
        Added with these factors , sea breeze adds to the moisture content at lower levels .
        And by diurnal heating the inland low expands and extends southwards to lower latitudes providing a part of the dynamic instability .

        But the main reason for more convectional rains in pre monsoon is that the contrast in temp. between the upper and lower levels is quite great compared to SWM …
        Mechanisms vary a bit in both seasons

    • Right tats y models fail to predict ts exactly whereas thy do so spot on for trough related rains…

      • Well even trough related rains can turn into huge flops.. remember the WB storms predicted by gfs that were supposed to occur yday and the day before ?

    • I have seen in Kea blog and many are posting that good moisture available today and there will be hot day. They all think it will rain. But it never does. They are fooled by Veppa Salanam rains.

      • One needs to understand that veppasalanam storms don’t form in coastal areas and have to move into areas near the seas

      • Agreed. moist Winds blowing into Heat Lows. Thats Veppa Salanam Rains. but not yesterday rains. as many stated

      • PJ you seems to be allergic towards the term Veppa Salanam and everyone provoke you with this term it appears

  19. Storms are far too west of blore to have impact here as of now. Have to see if anything new develops closer

      • Yes. Hot air rises and there is lower pressure into which cold air causing higher pressure moves.

        Key terms – Lower, higher and NOT low, high

  20. Maddy not against Veppa Salanam. But everthing should not be called like that. Today IMD Pune said this

    The trough extends from southeast Uttar Pradesh to north Tamil Nadu across east Madhya Prdesh, Chattisgarh and interior Andhra Pradesh and now extends upto 1.5 kms a.s.l.

    Now Co-relate the Pop-ups – Its over AP till north TN – http://www.imd.gov.in/section/dwr/dynamic/doppler-ppz.htm

    • Most of the days synoptic conditions like troughs at som levels descend/extend across the country thy may not produce rains every time alone..IMD in general calls as vs rains because of the heat

      • Why not they are there to tell right reasons. Thats what they are paid for.

  21. It seems that an IR wave would kick start symmetric vortices on either side of the equator , helping each other , the Bay vortex is expected to propagate northwards into SE Bay with some rains filled in it , slightly in a less organised way

    Simultaneously , a short peak in westerly surge is seen in South Bay in the coming 4 or 5 days ….

  22. The southern hemispheric equatorial vortex near Sumatra , seems to be an elongated one , and is just binding equatorial westerlies for north Indian ocean Bay region , making the Bay vortex a rain associated one ……and this Bay vortex would remain a bit concentrated relatively …..

  23. 【M5.2】ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION Depth 10km May 01, 2015 08:58:41 UTC (G)http://j.mp/1Q5YvcK (EMSC)http://j.mp/1I2CwCm

  24. May has started in all fairness..Hyderabad today is just boiling hot..It’s 5.45 pm and the temperature is hovering around 41 degrees Celsius. Devoid any breeze, conditions are unforgiving really.

      • Yeah Sure. Came here day before yesterday and today easily the hottest day in terms of no letting up of Max temps even at this hour. Itching to get back .

    • Enjoying Hyderabad weather……….??
      Shamshaabad is reeling under 42.6 degree temperature…

      • Honestly not enjoying, same time I was mentally prepared for this sort of dry heat here. Normally I avoid coming to Hyb in April till June. Other than these 3 months, one can manage the weather here quite comfortably.

  25. Kurnool 41.4
    Mahaboobnagar 42.5
    Hyderabad shamshaabad airport 42.6
    Hyderabad begampet airport 41.2

    Temperature in Kurnool did not go up 42 because of a thunderstorm

  26. Recent gfs shows very heavy rain for tn coast and also not allowing the weak disturbance to move away from north tn-s.ap stretch…

    • weak system steered west to TN. Strong System steered away from TN Coast to WB / Bangla / Burma. We dont need Cyclone. We need WML / Depression

      • Should move in slowly to our side in a weaker state and intensify rapidly to a min Cyclone just offshore 50 kms …

      • Yep….I am little confused
        “Will that weak mjo boost a cyclone or create favourable conditions in BOB…..so that the shear can reduced..?

      • Seasonal Shear values are not a big deal until the Monsoon sets in …Systems have overcome shear in May month easily at most times ….MJO’s expected weak phase can lessen the chances of convective support , but systems is May can come out even without any support from MJO …..Always not a required condition

      • It is better we get depression or DD so that we get rains, cyclone does not bring much rains

      • Sir , slow moving strong cyclones can be equally wet ….but it has to be very slow , something like Nisha , which moved on an average speed of 6 kmph ….

      • GTS, u are aware that abundant energy available will make all cyclone intense during May. You cant expect Nisha in MAy

      • Yeah , not widespread as Nisha , but small area dumps , can be a mammoth …at least LF area

  27. Today relative humidity is nearly 40 percent

    Though it is just 41.4 degrees in kurnool

    It is feeling unbearable….

    • Nothing like that Maddy. We all know Cyclones dump such heavy rains than LPA. Its in May we prefer LPA rather than Cyclone due to the Steering Environment which normally takes system to curve away.

      Cyclone Rocks. i have put stats of last 100 year rainfall. Let it be 1952 or 1990. Its Cyclonic Rainfall.

      • Yea in May we obviously prefer LPA but problem is May has 2 much energy as u said and thanks to good conditions storms very rarely are weak

      • Yes yes exactly.. neglecting the intensity ,any disturbance off tn/lanka coast wud b fine n welcome in the month of may

  28. KEA Blog. Filled with diversified persons with expertise all around areas. Nice to see all active even in Summer. Cheers.Hope Ehsan values the assests here.

    Its a Team Blog unlike all other blogs in Chennai and India.

      • Rainman everyone should work hard. All wont be valued the Same. I can sense what u are trying to tell. Its pure hard work. Some come here to relax. Some come to get infos. some Just to see. Some are silent and never post. How can eveyrone be valued.

        Even u come with breaks. I remember the night we had the other day. We were eager for rains. So few assets can be only valued. Its the passion. Here it is full of it. ITs not a one man show. Even i or GTS or anyone leave. The blog will run with same intensity.

  29. The GFS updates indicate very high shear though. That could be the only thing preventing a cyclone. Let’s watch how the shear pans out

  30. I have some doubt regarding mjo and kelvin wave

    Is kelven wave often generated by an mjo…..??
    Is there any relation between between mjo occurence variations and ELNINO…??

    If there are two strong cyclones…one in Northern Hemisphere (Anti clockwise) and the other in Southern Hemisphere (Clockwise)….at the same time if there is an emerging mjo travelling eastwards…..near the equator ….and if there is a lot of energy and humidity in troposhere…..what will happen……whether the mjo strenghtens and feed both the cyclones….I mean will the strengthening of mjo gets favoured by those cyclones……??

    • Tis is still in an area of intense debate.. kw have occurred in the leading and trailing edge of a mjo activity.

      • At what hpa level will the mjo travels…..and why does it travels only in the east direction

      • U can track in both lower level and upper level.. enhanced convection along with strong westerly anomalies at lower level,and if u r tracking at upper level ,u should go for velocity potential index which gives u an idea on divergence

    • Yes both the system gets aided in tat case. Possibly one with good favourable conditions,develop into a stronger one

  31. Just 41 degrees Celsius right now at Secunderabad Railway Station. Look for the bottom line of the pic..Last updated at….

  32. what’s happening….. Gfs showing wml/depression in gom on 11th may till 13th may and shows rain bands not extending north till chn.. but its showing massive rains starting in coastal TN including chennai from 15/16th may….

  33. if the forecasted WML/DD targets NTN/SAP then it will be very rare and great start for SWM-2015 season especially for peninsular India.

    • Moreover a weak pulse of MJO-Kelvin will be there over BOB & adjoining MTC by mid-May.
      So we can expect SC-BOB/adjoining SE-BOB to host the required pulse, which may further intensify depending on the available TCHP/ACE.

  34. Temperature updates…

    Hot Telangana Rayalaseema and Coastal AP….

    TIRUPATI records 42.3 degree temperature (HIGHEST IN 2015)

    Manuguru singareni coal belt head office – 45.9 (Highest in 2015)
    Adilabad – 43.5 degrees (Highest in 2015)
    Jangamaheswarapuram – 43.3 (Highest in 2015)
    Nizamabad – 42.9
    Tirupati – 42.3 (Highest in 2015)
    kurnool – 41.3
    Nellore – 41.0 (Highest in 2015)
    Hyderabad (begumpet) – 40.8 (Highest in 2015)
    Anantapur – 40.7

      • Yes Nellore and Tirupati…rocking today
        Both recorded highest temperatures..

        From the past 2 days temperatures in nellore are above 40 degrees

      • Shiva….you should have visited singareni today….45.9…it could have been much enjoyable

  35. anything can’t be started by all of sudden by human-beings or by the nature.

    if we see the latest upper-level wind analysis it looks BOB is getting ready for some-system (WML-Cyclone) by Mid-may.

    Weak MJO+Kelvin wave will initiate the BOB-system on the foot-print of SWM-trough (ITCZ related), along with west-pacific typhoon will enhance the BOB-system’s dynamics.

    upper-level winds: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=wvir&zoom=&time=

  36. Nellore temperatures in last 5 days

    May 1 – 41.0 degrees
    April 30 – 40.6 degrees
    April 29 – 40.0 degrees
    April 28 – 39.5 degrees
    April 27 – 39.2 degrees

  37. OMG….strong +ve SHA along the TN & AP coasts adjoining west-central/SW BOB. If any system comes to these coastal areas then that system will get abundant moisture within short time.

    Overall system will feel riding on SHA roller-coaster, so can intensify many fold within short time.

    • This UAC over SC-BOB is initiating under so many favorable conditions. Also need to worth watch that this UAC is establishing just after “west-Pacific Typhoon’s NE-turn (just like super typhoon Vongfong-2014’s NE turn that ignited Hudhud-2014′ UAC).

      • I was excited to see the 1st spiral system over BOB. I am in a strong opinion that it will target indian east coast (as I said earlier).

  38. Temperatures at 8 :30 pm now in AP

    Nandikotkur – 36.0
    Kurnool – 35.0
    Anantapur – 35.0
    Tirupati – 34.0
    Ramagundam – 33
    Hyderabad – 32.2

    Source(weather underground and online sakshi weather)

  39. How many of u aware??
    hudhud caused 1/3rd deaths in Nepal 43 killed as it triggered avalanches in mt.Dhaulagiri all were hikers n guides..

    Wth

  40. We need to still fight for net-neutralityhttp://m.indiatimes.com/news/india/how-the-indian-telecom-industry-is-still-fighting-to-kill-your-netneutrality-and-the-fight-to-stop-them-232330.html

  41. Shot at Sulurpeta at 6.40 am today. Sun all in its glory early in the morning. Sign of things to come. .

  42. Disaster occurred in chennai since 2000:::
    1) huge wave tsunami- 2004
    2) torrential rainfall Oct 2005- floods
    3)flood caused by cyclone ogni – 2006
    4) Nisha cyclone….. More rains low winds but caused flood Nov 2008
    5) nilam cyclone…… More winds but caused minor damage to coastal parts if city……October 2012…………

    • yes in nilam days aftermath cyclone there was not heavy rains only 8 CM i guess but when you visit the beach it was like 20 CM but the true story was that it was STORM SURGE beach was fully flooded…
      that is like disaster only people in those places were evacuated but when they came back only water was there….

  43. Temp 33.7 at 9 am & 24 hrs diff is 1.6 c…By seeing this Today we will touch the first highest max of the year..

  44. Sure shot of a system for NTN-SOrissa. It can’t go beyond. This is what I am trying to say for the past 2 days.

  45. surface level circulation exactly over kurnool…..
    Current temperature 37 degrees
    cloudless sky
    Dry winds started blowing…..
    This low is driving northwest dry winds..
    Today might become hottest day till now

    Till 10:00 am….temperature trend is as follows (kurnool)

    5:30 am – 30 degrees (yesterday)
    5:30 am – 31 degrees (Today)

    8:30 am – 31 (yesterday)
    8:30 am – 32.6 (Today)

    10:00am – 33.6 (yesterday)
    10:00am – 35.9 (Today)

  46. recent run from gfs… no development from tat convectional area,its sweeping andaman islands and kick starting the monsoon

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