378 thoughts on “All eyes on May system

  1. Ameen, that was fantastic from you yesterday. You just seem to be breathing weather every second..Blog is gifted to have many young talents showing immense passion and enthusiasm in climatology and weather.

  2. wow kea says it does not look like affecting TN. So good chance Chenna may get good rains. 1990, 2004, 2010. Will it be 2015 ?

  3. Bengaluru city 5mm (did 5mm rain stop the match??!!)
    Beniganahalli 3mm
    Banaswadi 9mm

    Banaswadi having a good run now. Just 4mm behind beniganahalli now

  4. s.indian ocean surface high pressure started surfacing and drastic changes happening in next 7 days in model run ,it wud be pushing itcz north into n.hemisphere

  5. Over 60 years, monsoon rainfall declines, variability increases
    The average total rainfall during the peak monsoon season of July and August has declined since 1951, but the variability of rain during these months has increasedβ€”deluges are more severe, and dry spells more frequent.
    That is the finding of a 2014 Stanford University paper, which compares Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) data over two periods: 1951 to 1980, and 1981 to 2011.

    Source courtesy:Business-Standard.com
    http://www.business-standard.com/article/specials/for-india-s-farmers-harder-life-ahead-find-latest-studies-115042900153_1.html

  6. ameen ,
    I just saw ur comment yesterday.that shows that how interest ur having over weather and also u will become a expert like pj,gts sir etc..
    excellent work ameen..

  7. i think current 500hpa winds is favouring the cyclone/D.D(if it forms) to hit Central T.N . will this pattern continue?

  8. Many times we have explained that why Bay produce tropical storms than Arabian Sea.
    The cyclonic disturbances are 5 to 6 times more frequent over the Bay of Bengal than over
    the Arabian Sea. One third of the Bay disturbances and half of the Arabian Sea disturbances
    intensify into tropical storms. The ratio of tropical cyclones between the Bay of Bengal and the
    Arabian Sea is 4:1. This is probably due to the fact that SST over the Arabian Sea is cooler
    than that of over the Bay of Bengal. Moreover, passage of westward moving remnants of the

    Tropical cyclones forming in the West Pacific Ocean over the Bay of Bengal are also helps in more
    cyclogenesis over the region.

    The Bay water maintains the critical ocean temperature of 26-27Β°C needed for Cyclogenesis.
    Even now if you compare the SST of Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal, bay is on the higher side.

    An analysis say that 15% of the total tropical cyclones form over the North Indian Ocean
    and their frequency peaking once from mid-April to mid-June and again from October to mid-December.
    Over the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea, during the southwest monsoon season
    (June to September), the intense systems usually do not develop due to shift of the convergence zone northward over the land.

    On an average, each year, 4 cyclones form in the Bay and 1 in the Arabian Sea, although there have been exception in individual years.

    In the past 118 years, 618 Cyclones formed, in which 485 formed over Bay and 133 in Arabian Sea.

    The upcoming cyclone over Bay on 11th is also might be due to the remnant of West Pacific Cyclone
    which is expected to form by 08th May.

    • good one ..but it’s not a remnant. few bay pre monsoon cyclones r successor of w.pacific. meaning bay produce a system after 7 days of formation in w.pacific(not everytime). energy could b supplied from any wave to two different basin but not the same pacific remnant developing here in bay

    • So Partha,

      if i understand correctly major systems in bay happens during make (may-Jun) and break (oct-nov) of the seasonal winds..and for TN and SAP we are the mercy of the movement of this system

    • I did mention this yesterday saying “we have seen in the past that directions getting changed” and worth watching closely on this – May be as on today Chennai – Nellore

      • I doubt about the possibilities of a cyclone – could be DD and certainly we will have good time

      • 2010 laila may cyclone made a perfect west ward movement till close to tn coast right from andaman sea…eventhough it was forecasted for NW movement….this one might also do that…i pray god and infact urge everyone to have a depression to maintain a west ward movement and hit the NTN and SAP coast …this is the place that really missed the bulky rains from a major system

  9. Heat is comparatively less today in areas around Suchitra Jn, Secunderabad. May be by few degrees compared to what it was yesterday same time. That hot air is missing today to some extent. Hope it’s stays like this for reminder of the day.

  10. Interior battered yesterday
    Thali (Krishnagiri Dist)

    8

    Shoolagiri (Krishnagiri Dist)

    6

    Rayakottah (Krishnagiri Dist), Marandahalli (Dharmapuri Dist)

    4 each

    Pappireddipatti (Dharmapuri Dist)

    3

    Hosur (Krishnagiri Dist), Melalathur (Vellore Dist), Palacode (Dharmapuri Dist), Tirupattur (Vellore Dist), Tirupathur pto (Vellore Dist)

    2 each
    Hogenekal (Dharmapuri Dist), Mettupalayam (Coimbatore Dist), Krishnagiri (Krishnagiri Dist), Denkanikottai (Krishnagiri Dist), Devala (Nilgiris Dist), Avinasi (Tiruppur Dist), Naduvattam (Nilgiris Dist)

    1 each

  11. +200,300 hrs forecasts are way toooo long to track spend time n comment then get disappointed,anything beyond 7 days for that matter…worth just keeping an eye once a day preferably morning run…

  12. keep praying for this system…i need this system badly…chennai reservoirs need it badly…collective prayer helps…

  13. Hailstones at a few places in the city

    For the second time in less than a week, parts of Bengaluru were greeted with a barrage of hailstones on Wednesday.

    With most of the day being warm and sultry, the thick build-up of clouds and gusts of winds came as a relief to citizens here. By 6 p.m., a few parts of Bengaluru – mainly in the outskirts to the south of the city – reported a short duration of hail along with rain.

    The India Metrological Department (IMD) notes that on average, hail falls in the city once in five years during April. This year has already seen hail twice. On April 23, large amounts of hail were reported in most parts of the city, pictures of which flooded social media sites. With some parts of the city receiving 3.8 mm of rain on Wednesday, the IMD predicts rains and thunderstorms in some areas for the next two days.

    On an average, hail falls in Bengaluru once in five years during April, according to the Met Department
    http://www.thehindu.com/news/cities/bangalore/hailstones-at-a-few-places-in-the-city/article7156130.ece?w=city

  14. This precipitation forecast anomaly of the CFS is ruling out chances of excess precipitation across the Myanmar coast …,for May – July ….probably could include any rainfalls associated to TC activity and early Monsoon rains being subdued

  15. Until the Genesis happens none of the models are going to predict exact path… It will change with every run especially GFS is always the best in this.

    Let’s wait for the Genesis to happen and analyse the possibility of the benefit for TN out of the yet to form system

  16. Currently a moderate magnitude Kelvin wave is seen propagating eastwards and inducing shallow to moderate convective cloud clusters near the equator south of the Lakshadweep islands …

      • @raijinweather, if Japan has poor rainfall season (unlike last year), then can we expect bountiful SWM rains??

      • I am not sure about the correlation of NWP precipitation and our SWM but few study shows that there is positive correlation between NWP precipitation and SCS precipitation and our Indian monsoon season

      • This year it’s quite calm compared to last year in Japan and I am yet to see to huge rainfall figures like last year and some private weather agencies feel that the rainy season which is just a week away to start as per average onset date still not showing any signs of onset process

      • Yeah Raijin , this ensemble map does not imply about the intensity of any system shown here , rather it says about the % level of confidence of an event occurring…. So from this map one can infer that the event occurrence in west Pacific is given more weightage ….

  17. Kolkata radar looks calm as of now! πŸ™‚
    Things looking good for a full match to take place.

  18. Cyclones usually are observed to show less movement towards Cb free sector ….Should check this criteria if we have a strong system. May cyclones are best to observe this ….

  19. Hottest months for chennai for past three year:
    2012- May , june, september
    2013- April, May, September
    2014- May , June, september
    2015- ????????

    • Ya if Kea comes to Blore. .He ll stay in South Blore .. so all rains then will come towards north Blore πŸ™‚

  20. think monsoon will fail in banglore.. Because of catastrophic summer rains in banglore ߘ°ߘݺ-P

  21. has anyone remembered Bangalore summer rainfall pattern in 2014? I mean which part (south or north) of Bangalore got good summer rains?
    if remember please tell me the pattern for 2009 also

  22. April month topper of Andhrapradesh is
    chinnamandem…cuddapah
    chinnamandem received 246 mm rain in april month alone…
    All time high

  23. Roads are completely wet as I cross Kudlu gate on my way to Madiwala. Drizzling and cool. West looks completely dark.

  24. Just 2mm recorded in my RG in sahakarnagar n.blore.. yet another miss.. this has been the everyday story last 10 days..

  25. hi! has anyone remembered Bangalore summer rainfall pattern in 2014? I mean which part (south or north) of Bangalore got good summer rains?
    if remember please tell me the pattern for 2009 also

  26. Drainage canal near Silk board is completely flooded. Even some TV reporters are covering the same. Roads are completely covered by fallen leaves and flowers.

  27. I don’t know the real correlation. But Elnino-modoki & -ve IOD are real killers of SWM-rains for AP & TS states. In these years both regions becoming severe drought years.

  28. SST-anomalies over A-region not showing any decreasing trend. If this warm SST-anomalies continue till the May-end (at max. June end), then forecasted Elnino won’t materialize.

    Instead Elnino like (similar to 2014 pattern) conditions will stay till the decay of oceanic kelvin wave already existed beneath the surface of dateline.

  29. City imd -5mm , intl ap -34mm ,hal -0.6mm till 17.30..so not much rains in central Blore also..only south was lucky

  30. Current conditions (Thursday, April 30, 2015 at 17:53 hour of Asia / Kolkata)

    Temperature: 25 Β° C
    Weather: rain with thunder; cumulonimbus
    Skies: overcast
    Humidity: 83%
    Wind: 34 km / h gusting to 61 km / h; variable direction
    Pressure: 1016
    Dew Point: 22 Β° C

    Intl ap now !!..It already got 34mm

  31. JUPI,

    The region at A cools well before the surfacing the Kelvin wave” then that Elnino will become very stronger one.

    But the present kelvin wave already surfacing before the cooling down of A-region. SO the forecasted Elnino will be weaker (if it establishes).

    But the fate of Elnino will be decided by JUNE-end.

    But we don’t need to be panicked by taking the establishment of Elnino-like conditions in 2014. Similar Elnino-like phenomenon will happen till the surfacing of kelvin wave in 2015 also.

  32. Storm looks ominous on radar! N Bangalore guys looks like you might make up for ur misses if this maintains intensity πŸ˜›

  33. Temperature Today in Tamilnadu and Puducherry (30.04.2015)

    Chennai Nungambakkam Tops in Min Temp – 28.5

    Vellore
    38.6
    25.2
    Trichy
    38.3
    26.8
    Karur Paramathi
    38.2
    23.4
    Madurai
    37.3
    27.3
    Chennai Meenambakkam
    37.1
    27.1
    Palayamkottai
    37.1
    26.5
    Cuddalore
    36.8
    26.8
    Chennai Nungambakkam
    36.6
    28.5
    Dharmapuri
    36.6
    21.5
    Tirupathur
    36.4
    24
    Nagapattinam
    36
    26.5
    Salem
    36
    24.5
    Puducherry
    35.9
    27.1
    Karaikal
    35.8
    26.4
    Coimbatore
    35.2
    24.6
    Pamban
    35
    28.4
    Adirampatnam
    34.1
    27
    Tondi
    34
    27.6
    Kanyakumari
    33.2
    26.4
    Thoothukudi
    32.5
    25.6
    Parangipettai

    27

    Valparai
    28.5
    16.5
    Coonoor
    23.8
    13.4
    Kodaikanal
    21.7
    11.8

  34. Tamilnadu Rainfall ending 8.30am Today (30.04.2015) in Centimeters. Krishnagiri & Dharmapuri Dist got Battered.

    Thali (Krishnagiri Dist) – 8

    Shoolagiri (Krishnagiri Dist) – 6

    Rayakottah (Krishnagiri Dist), Marandahalli (Dharmapuri Dist) – 4

    Pappireddipatti (Dharmapuri Dist) – 3

    Hosur (Krishnagiri Dist), Melalathur (Vellore Dist), Palacode (Dharmapuri Dist), Tirupattur (Vellore Dist), Tirupathur pto (Vellore Dist) – 2

    Hogenekal (Dharmapuri Dist), Mettupalayam (Coimbatore Dist), Krishnagiri (Krishnagiri Dist), Denkanikottai (Krishnagiri Dist), Devala (Nilgiris Dist), Avinasi (Tiruppur Dist), Naduvattam (Nilgiris Dist) – 1

  35. Only 4 days to go for “KATHIRI” Still Chennai Temperature haven’t crossed 38.5 its the one of the advantage of this year.
    At Present Sea Breeze is our Saviour Let it be as like.

    • We have not even crossed 36 so far if I am right , added to today around 2 pm heavy wind and now cool breeze

  36. Hot Andhra and Telangana

    Adilabad – 43.6 degrees
    Nizamabad – 43.0 degrees
    Medak – 43.0 degrees
    Karimnagar – 43.0 degrees
    Jadcherla – 42.7 degrees
    Kurnool – 41.7 degrees
    kadapa – 41.6 degrees
    Tirupati – 41.1 degrees
    Anantapur – 40.1 degrees
    Hyderabad – 40.1 degrees

    yesterday rainfall data

    chinnamandem – 48.6 mm
    Tirumala – 48 mm
    Tirupati – 47 mm

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