548 thoughts on “Dry uncomfortable days ahead

  1. I think there are 2 back to back disturbances expected before May 10th in South Bay.

    The first one around 03rd or 04th, which will be an UAC, will move towards Arabian Sea by 05th. This may create impact over North Tamil Nadu, South will get heavy rain from 03rd.

    The next one by second week looks promising for entire state.

  2. i feel v must wait for tis one to disintegrate for a proper s.easterlies and cross equ winds to move into northern parts.

  3. I feel the first system is going to be one that will trigger thunderstorms and not bring any cyclonic rain.. Gut feel that if there is a second system it will develop into a cyclone

  4. Oh.. if we check the run thoroughly we can notice that the 2nd system develops offshore off of the trough of the 1st system.. This has to happen a bit more away from land for good rains

  5. the last time we say a cyclone striking TN coast was during 2012 NE monsoon where Nilam crossed Mahabalipuram in october.
    Hope we get something during may month! 😦

  6. If the second one becomes a Depression or DD its fine for Tamil Nadu, the Mid Level steering winds will support and drive it towards us, but if it becomes a Cyclone then it has to follow the path of Upper Level Steering Winds, which will take the system to Myanmar, which will not benefit us.

  7. Interesting days ahead to track rain starting from nex week, anyhow at last as we know chennai going to get disappointment by marginal miss

  8. I would like to thank everyone contributing in KeaWeather blog. Over the past few weeks the standard of blogging has improved by leaps and bounds. Hopefully we can maintain this and keep improving further. Happy Blogging!!!

  9. FARMERS WEATHER BULLETIN FOR TAMIL NADU AND PUDUCHERRY FOR NEXT FIVE DAYS:

    DAY 1 (28th April): Isolated light to moderate rain may occur over of Tamil Nadu and Puducherry.

    DAY 2 (29th April): Isolated light to moderate rain may occur over of Tamil Nadu and Puducherry.

    DAY 3 (30th April): Isolated light to moderate rain may occur over of Tamil Nadu and Puducherry.

    DAY 4 (01st May): Isolated light to moderate rain may occur over of Tamil Nadu and Puducherry.

    DAY 5 (02nd May): Isolated light to moderate rain may occur over of Tamil Nadu and Puducherry.

    OUTLOOK FOR SUBSEQUENT TWO DAYS: No significant change.

  10. Thats a Super Cyclonic Storm with 3-minute sustained wind speeds of 235
    km/h (145 mph)..which made the system equivalent to a category 4
    hurricane.. LF on May 9th 1990 in AP.. &
    kea’s mentioned picture is a depression which crossed S.AP on Nov 14th..1990 ..few places got rain in S.AP due to rapid weakening..

  11. Almost boiled nd fried at ahmedabad for one week with 45 deg consistently…., 39,40 deg even at 9 pm.. Came back.. Ours s far better …

  12. dark clouds over north of tirupati….i don’t know the cloud movement…is there any chance of rain guyzz??

  13. The Cyclone probability results from Atmos Albany shows marginal increase in value of some TC activity meandering around the Myanmar coast and the adjoining north Andaman Sea by around the first week of May …and an other one around the end of May.

    • This is quite opposite to our fellow bloggers expectation around S/SWBOB back to back systems before May 2nd week??

      • This one model has been expecting some activity around the usual climatology area for this time of the year. And I also guess, this gives more weightage to climatology. Other models work on more dynamics. But, anyways let us wait , as the intensity would play games around this time of the year …with movement ..

  14. Temperatures rocking in hyderabad

    Hyderabad uppal Infosys campus rocking live reading 43.8 degrees at 1: 30
    Inside office 20 degrees
    outside office 43.8 degrees
    full concrete layout and hills beside may be the reason

  15. Going by the NOAA SSTA charts , it seems that Nino regions (1+2) have higher anomaly values , especially 2

  16. Bangalore – 2:39pm, Rain started in north west of Bangalore. Getting very cool breeze. #weather instagram.com/p/2DbDHIuqlK/

    iwm

  17. Something brewing in east and south of BLR…I can feel the cool breeze and distant thunder. It was really an uncomfortable day and yesterday night the temp at 11 pm in KIA was 30 * c

  18. massive ts NW of chennai..but no use of it..where should the ts should form to get rains for chennai?

  19. Very light rains in Mahadevapura. Does not look it will hold for long. May be few minutes.Temp is clearly down from 35 *c this afternoon.

    • There were some years when it has gone by without crossing the 40 deg mark …But a system in Bay can act in two ways , one is bring down temp. drastically or by moving away from us can induce heat waves …Its a big gamble like Indian Monsoons …but days recording with 40 deg and + has more chances ………….

  20. Indian southern peninsula heading for early SWM? It looks like that. SKYMET forecast of SWM onset by MAY 27th over Kerala might become true??

    • First thing is the sunlight as these ppl say, sept though less hotter, has more sunlight. Second, earlier sea breeze and winds from E at lower levels makes it very moist and allows massive storms to develop early in the day as sea breeze sets in early. Also, low pressures will be further south in latitude which is favourable for us

  21. Highlights of Cpc forecast for week 2:
    During Week-2, the only region that can be delineated on the map is a fairly large region in the Northwest Pacific, where overall conditions seem somewhat favorable. Over the Indian Ocean near Sri Lanka, there is a low risk of formation associated with a forecast area of enhanced convection. The latest 06Z run of the GEFS indicates about a 10 to 15 percent chance of formation over the eastern Pacific basin, and the coupled CFS system suggests the first system in that basin could form as early as Week-3. This will continue to be monitored closely.

    • Secondary Cyclone Season as usual continues to put a watch on any probable convective cloud clusters , and keeps a vigil scenario

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