Lets first see the postive factors
1. Dipping of Jetstreams – When a jet stream dips, it creates upper divergence and there by increasing convergence at lower levels. These rains are always intense and are associated with hails.
2. The upper trough is caught between two HPA and a valley like trough is created. The sharper the trough the more the intense the rains are.
3. CAPE – 4000 (J/kg) is available near Chennai. So we just need a TS over Chennai. The abundant energy will magnify the TS.
4. Moisture Content – No need to worry about this. You may already felt the sultry feeling. Moisture is available right from upper level to surface levels.
Negative factors.
1. All the above are assumed factors
2. The storms should not peak too early before coming to our Bermuda triangle
3. Chennai is located southern coastal part of India. This region not known to get rains in April.
I personally feel that we have more than good chance for rains in Chennai in next two days as the postive factors cannot be ignored.
Good chance of rains on Sat.
Radar shows some activuty nw of chennai
Good morning friends…
radar shows huge ts over north of Chennai. Looks like moving down towrds chennai.
Possibilities of rain well explained in the heading. Lets pray for the record breaking rainy day in April for Chennai.
I think Chennai get more rain but chidambaram fare Chance
Thanks to Sampath, for this article…..
Doppler Radar at Karaikal
According to GFS – The TS is going to stay near Chennai for a While. Exicting day ahead.
Will be monitoring 24/7 to celebrate , I wish we too have some hail storm to capture
Hail storm is not good for monsoon
Y?
Any way what we are going to get has nothing to do with monsoon , all we need to “Hail” any storm that comes in our way
ECMWF has a different view
As mentioned yesterday we will have only one view – i.e. just receive rain from tonight – rest does not matter
Hal ap 49mm as per newspaper reports. Blore City 53mm. Would be interesting to see BBMP daily report today. Looks like storm passed almost exact east to west. Even west central blore has got good numbers. Areas on fringe of storm like mine got hail lot of wind and lightning show but significantly lesser rain.
Areas like hoodi garudachapalya which got heavy rains last week hardly got anything yesterday. Around 5mm. Rammurthy nagar horamavu just 0.5mm or even 0. Kasturi nagar was comparatively luckier. 🙂
It was belting for 45 mins in JP Nagar..I crossed a road with knee level water..
This posting by RAkesh Rajan in FB -Heavy T showers forecast for Chennai, and many zones along SE India on friday evening, midnight.
Best topic .Best news.
Nice to hear a good topic… hope it materialises
very encouraging…
R u ready?
eppavo ready!
Ok ok
exam over?
Lol.April 10th. Itself
ohh ok …
Commodity prices surge on low rain forecast
http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/markets/commodities/commodity-prices-surge-on-low-rain-forecast/article7134858.ece?homepage=true
6-8 inch
Wow
gfs meteogram expects 20mm
Don’t believe that
Y? that also one of the models…
Yes.but showing only 20mm
Accuweather expects severe ts starting from today afternoon
yes TS through friday afternoon to evening
God should show mercy to all the areas unlike last time..pls.
especially nunga
Yes.that’s what I was trying to tell
More “damaging” nor’westers ahead today for Bihar, Odisha and Bengal. Take care. #iwm
Heavy T showers forecast for Chennai, and many zones along SE India on friday evening, midnight.… https://instagram.com/p/109MtguqgO/
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Gud gaming experience too
Amazing speed and my son is using Asus zenfone A400. I believed Brand Name of Asus. It clicked well.
yes..correctly said
Hope IPL match in chepauk on Saturday doesn’t get disrupted due to rains.
Yeah
I do not mind even if it gets cancelled, or washed out what we need rain and not IPL
Let it get cancelled due to deluge situation in chennai
Ameen according to your meteogram when rain will start in chennai ?
Today evening
Lets see how accurate your meteogram is
hope so
Today morning i expected 3mm and in afternoon 4mm will it happen or not i don’t know
Ok friends lets meet in the evening. No internet in office.
soon will meet u with rains
where?
in blog thaan.Shall i come to your house.
come pj
ha ha.. if possible for you… you come.. no problem
8:58 AM -33.3 c 64%
hotday
blore imd -53.4 mm , hal ap -49mm with min temp of 17 C in a peak summer wow!! 🙂
City has a lead of ~3cm over sahakarnagar nw…. and HAL AP is ahead of us too! Hebbal-Sahakarnagar belt has been pretty unlucky this month…. Our time will come soon 🙂
My area is like a consistent performer.. Never topping but always getting some rains.. 🙂
Radakrishna ward has got 13.5mm whereas my place could be arnd 7-8mm.rains gradually increased south of my place..
heavy rains with thunderbolts effects various regions in AP & Telangana states
IST 8.30am
OMG….models accurately predicted heavy rains for CAP-NAP on 24th. Today early morning CAP districts Krishna & Guntur and Khammam, Warangal (TS) got 20-30 mm thunderous rains.
The above rain belt moving towards NAP and later it will weaken.
Due:
NTN rainfall (Chennai) on 24th is in due. I expect these rains will come form N/NE/E (by inverted trough as partha mentioned??) by today evening/tomorrow early morning.
http://www.weatheronline.in/weather/satellite/India/India/Infraredcolor.htm
Waiting for the Same
Geopotential at 500 HPA normalised anomaly supports early morning rainfall for Chennai.
Partha, I expecting rains must come from N/NE/E direction. whats ur take?
Perfect, 700 HPA going to rule.
Vela,
Your point “more hail storms and poor SWM” is a valid point.
Reason:
More the hailstroms in pre-monsoon period is the indication of strong sub-tropical jet stream pattern (related moisture coming from mid-latitude westerly winds). Elnino (Lanina) will enhance (weaken) the strength of sub-tropical jet-streams.
So when sub-tropical jet-stream patterns has more strength then Somali jet-stream (SWM-related) has to struggle get into action. If Somali-jet stream pattern is in weak position then it will result in poor SWM (in-terms of distribution of rainfall).
Do you think chennai has chance to get hail during this rains
Chennai may not get hail storm as the forecasted rains will come from BOB and adjoining SAP (differ from convectional TS).
Ok
today, dr ramanan says rain is due to VS only
VS means??
veppa salanam
OK.
hailstors are very common and usual in bangalore and central TN districts during the month of april and may
Perfect wind pattern to bring heavy rains to chennai for tonight
good explanation
By seeing positive factors by PJ…
these positive factors are all synoptic factors for rain
and all negative factors are common factors
Cloudy weather here in chennai
Alert….
Elnino-2015 (forecast) will take the “Spring bite” just similar to Elnino-2014 failed forecasts??? Earliest indications look like that.
No need to worry about NEM-2015, which will be having better rainfall prospects than NEM-2014 even if Elnino in 2015 doesn’t establish according to the earlier forecast.
Another hot day today. Can we beat yesterdays 36.8?
Clear and hot start to the day in Blore. Not even a cloud in the sky..
Lets see what happens after 3 PM 🙂
its 12:30 and still no cloud in the sky!
Yes!!..very surprising!!
Yesterdays rain has wiped the air clean.. I can see nandi hill so so clearly from my office in old madras road 🙂
Oh is it!!.. clear visibility that far!!.
Regular-Elnino-like conditions will effect SWM & NEM rains in 2015 (similar to elnino-modoki-like in 2014)???
Erode/Salem: Heavy rain accompanied by hailstorm lashed Salem bringing down the temperature while trees were uprooted in Erode district, officials said today.
The hailstorm lashed Salem around five pm yesterday, much to the relief of people sweltering under the heat.
In Erode, heavy rain accompanied by gale uprooted number of trees in Bharathy Nagar, Kollampalayam, Perundurai road and some other places, last night.
A big Banyan tree was uprooted in Perundurai causing traffic disruption for more than three hours from 8 p.M, officials said.
36.6 c now. We could cross 37 or even 38 today
peaking in temperature is the early indication of coming trough related rains 🙂
hope its not another miss for Nunga
expecting rains will come from SAP adjoing BOB side only similar to NEM-style. So Nunga won’t miss by any chance.
pls answer my question below
Now reduced to 34 c
now showing 36.9*
omg 37*
34 °C
Scattered clouds.34 °C and possibilities of TS in the afternoon
see top of this page wdget it now showing 36.9
Check other sites
see this and other sites as well
ok
Regions just n of Chennai has even brighter chance to start with
Heavy rain in kakinada…Tuni…
hailstorms in araku and paderu
Lammasingi recording 8 degree temperature with dense fog and heavy rain
8 deg?? 0_0
Andhra ooty lammasingi
this year least on january 4 with unofficial reading -2
kashmir of AP. Another name for this Lambasingi village is Korra Bayalu. Korra means ´stick´, Bayalu
means ‘outside’, in the local language this means “if some one stays
outside the house in the open they will freeze like a stick”
Partha we can expect rains much before morning.
Today evening… ok ts will come from which direction to chennai
New thunderstorms extending towards the southern areas of west central bay of bengal…soon ongole prakasam nellore chennai may get favourable conditions.
Though at present surface winds at 1000hpa are not favourable the winds at 700 hpa may dip down.
large amount of energy available at nellore chennai belt…
moisture content also favourable….
needs close monitoring
This is what I am trying to say in my earlier comments today SAP & adjoining NTN will have NEM-style rains by today night to tomorrow early morning
Let us hope for the best…..
Yesterday Salem IMD Rain Report – 58.3 mm..
min temperature 19°C..
very late night Friday rains or very early mor rains too start..Chennai to rock in next 12 hrs, but some evening showers cannot be ruled out today..
today temp may see 38.c in Chennai..
Chennai now Scattered clouds.34 °C and there is every possibility of TS in the afternoon
Palani (Dindigul Dist)
7
Perundurai (Erode Dist), Salem (Salem Dist)
6 each
Dharmapuri pto (Dharmapuri Dist)
4
Hogenekal (Dharmapuri Dist), Coimbatore south (Coimbatore Dist), Virinjipuram AWS (Vellore Dist)
3
what about rains in pondicherry? It is very sultry outside
IST 11.30am
sat img update
Blore hail storm.this video looks awesome
is it hailstorm or cyclonic storm?? It must be supercell thunderstorm.
yes it was a crazy storm.. winds and hails were very heavy for some time over East Blore areas..
The last hailstorm in n.blore (or sahakarnagar to be specific) happened 8-10 years back i think…. i vaguely remember it was a very heavy 15-20 min rain and the lawn in my house was painted white with hailstones 🙂
On may 24th or 25th 2011 there was hail storm in my place.I remember it well.. I even collected it in my hands.but very small hails only though and also in April 2010 there was hail storm :)..In May 2013 many parts of Blore reported hail storms for twice..even imd reported once.. but there wasn’t in our areas.
Oh don’t remember these 😦 It may have been May 24th 2011 as from my RG archives i have written down that 37mm was recorded on that day…. And it was a working day, so high chances that I might have missed it….
oh ok!!..It rained very very heavily for 30 mins that day arnd 5.30 pm
for one second KEA widget showed 37* and now in down ward trend, i think this is the highest temp. so far this month.
something wrong , all other sites are showing less
kea to clarify
this is meena
imd official today high 35.3
going down 34.7 now
we are always saying, imd rain recordings show less qty than actual, why can’t it be also for temp?
Veppa salanama Shankaran. Why dont u ask Ramanan sir. Why there was no rain yesterday. Veppam was there la.
Without dipping of trough, we wont get rains.
But chances appearing very very bright this afternoon itself
veppa salanam is a trade mark word
veppam was there y.day. but no salanam
Does dipping of trough alone is sufficient enough to produce rains… We need moisture too.
i think IMD chennai is lazy enough to explain the scientific reason for rains they simply term it as veppasalanam
thy term all summer rain as vs rains except oct n nov
Only 10-20% people are eager to understand what they are saying….. Think about other 80-90% of people
unless they say how will anyone learn.
U know better about the protocols in Govt Organizations…. It is not with Ramanan, its beyond his control
80-90% people dont believe them bcos they tell exactly the opposite
Thats the problem with media…. Shooting at 1 time and telecasting the same for next 24-36 hours, how u expect the forecast should be remain same
that is the valid reason, but they can atleast update informations in website when it is rainy season
It is updated in their Daily forecast… issued from Delhi
Delhi giving the whole india report every day 4 times, i know, but i’m talking about Chennai
it has to come from Delhi with approval, how come v people expect the same from them ?
on one hand they going to spend 400 cr for understanding weather ,and how to improve the prediction, on the other hand we lack information about daily updates stating protocol,
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/ALLINDIA_MAIN.HTM
sorry sir,you are telling this for the last 3 years. dont blame media. imd shd update every 2 hrs. using protocol is not right
Don’t blame media ????
They are following the correct way of telecasting the information… y they are using the same footage for next 1-2 days ????
Go and check the http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/ALLINDIA_MAIN.HTM
They are updating
According to u is the media is correct ?
they will surround you if you are giving press meet. wat will they do, if imd giving once in 2 days
First u need to visit IMD, how they are treating Press People… They are welcoming Press people at any time… there is no time restrictions
all those things are other part, what we want to say is atleast they can send msgs of updates to media, leave out press conference, lot of ordinary people depends on media only, and visual media runs for 24 hrs round the clock .
OMG shankaran sir telling negative about IMD, I thought u were ramanan fan. sorry to say with due respect, he has become joker of TN when comes weather in every household.
when experts here explains the reasons, why can’t they?
Out of total population, how many are interested here for weather ?
of course, atleast they can avoid stereo type reports,
yes accepted, but will media’s are ready to do that….
Here our KEA WEATHER experts analyse the weather what ever resources they got BUT IMD is got all arms and ammunition but not using them is a waste of public money let them publish the scientific reasons let those who want to learn read it
There are so many protocols has to pass before giving anything…. It has to come from IMD Delhi…. It is not only from Dr. Ramanan…. This is what i am trying to tell…
@bhaskaran19:disqus Why don’t you believe what you see? Yesterday Kea recorded 35.8, IMD AWS recorded 35.3 only. But official IMD reading was 35.8 only.
Today Kea recorded 37.0, where as IMD AWS recorded max of 35.3 only. This is still way above the 34 you are mentioning. I think official IMD reading will be around 36.5. Lets wait and see.
It is not the question of believing , there could be some error possibilities becoz I have checked couple of other sites as well. Incidentally I did not check IMD nor I will ever check also
sites like?
http://www.timeanddate.com/weather/india/chennai/hourly
There other site http://www.accuweather.com/en/in/chennai/206671/weather-forecast/206671
https://www.google.co.in/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=chennai+weather+now
Electronic’s Readings and Thermometer Reading will differ always…
the pic u posted below is for Meenambakkam
See the Humdidity in pondy during evenning, it is 80%. It is going to be sultery this aft/ eve. Any comments on this
rains on cards for pondy..
power cut in pondy which makes condition worse
today temp may be with 35-34 only but kea mentioning 37…………….something going wrong with nungambakkam
how do you know its only 34-35? Do you have an instrument to measure?
May be differences in humidity may have made u feel like that.
Yes vela sir
100% people interested only to enjoy rains
50% people interested to observe how it rains
20% people interested to investigate when and where it rains( but only in rainy season)
10% people do it in all seasons
Only 2% of the people like us always interested on climate and changes in weather in all seasons irrespective of places
vizag radar looks aweome long time after hudhud
Gowri how you are telling that it will rain in pondy. By radar or sat imagas
gfs..
Friday night
Doppler radar in Karaikal by May-end
The Doppler Weather Radar Station located at Karaikal will be commissioned by May-end.
It will be a state-of-the-art facility featuring the most sophisticated technology in Tamil Nadu and Puduchery region, said P.S.Biju, station director.
It will be an-all weather radar and can register data on rainfall, cyclone detection, velocity of wind and it will track cyclone movement. It will gauge upper air wind, an important data input for flights operating from the Tiruchi airport and the airport to be set up at Karaikal
I always believed imd had all the equipment to do forecasting … infact they have everything in their daily weather reports ….but for some reason they never take it to common man may be media is not supportive to do a weather report like cnn or bbc or al jazeera… fact is also 80 prrcent of the v population don’t want it. ..ramanan sir my request would be improvise the weather reprint take it to next level to the common man
why not a weather channel for india for free..??
Good one but no sponsors ha ha ha
It is time we take masses to next level on weather by the way how many noticed in sun tv news when they report on weather during rainy days they show old satellite picture completely irrelevant to current weather systems
SKY Very Light Blue in Colour, Low level Dark Cumulus around, Smoky Visibility of the SKY.
So the sky is getting ready for grand gala…
7 cms ?
from the day i follow cyclone and rain updates through radio, when t.v was not popular, the functioning of Imd remains same, only late updates, those days technology boom is not their, but today?
kalakara chandru
No that’s because they don’t coordinate with media or vice versa … They have all the forecasts with them
what is the use, using crores of money, and less information to common man?
Media is also highly irresponsible 50 50
imd has com a looong way since then! jst an example wat we all crave for every ten min update?? RADAR …no doubt imd is more sophisticated now but the prob lies with the country n infra….most ppl hav better things to do n survive every day than concern abt weather…
n media is not at all intrested to cover their seminars workshops etc, its oly durin the cyclone time they scurry to report tat too for competing with other media agencies who gets first.. pathetic ppl
Media runs on all directions, for them weather a part of news,
Accumulated Precipitation shows heavy rain till tomorrow morning.
Whether the clouds to the NE of chennai will come to pondy or come from western direction
sir, please wait. today is chennai’s turn
Pondy will get its share sir
hmm adha apparama kodukalam
Then naanka chennai ku etha 10 cms vitte kodukurom
now rains almost certain ..what will be the quantum..any guess. ??FROM Friday late night to sat noon..
7 cms
Looking at the humidity levels . Boy extremely humid day summer storms with a help of a weather system I always tale chances
10 cms for pondy
may come true..then embrace for rains soon..
Watch out for an UAC forming by tomorrow evening near North Coastal Tamil Nadu, During easterlies when UAC forms over East of North Tamil Nadu Coast then it will hamper our chances, but this the winds are going to come from North and NNE on Saturday, so more rain expected on Saturday night.
it will pound chennai and NTN
as expected cloud bands weakening over CAP-NAP adjoining West-central BOB, from there it will dip-down and gain again strength over SAP/NTN by today night/tomorrow morning.
http://www.weatheronline.in/weather/satellite/India/India/Infraredcolor.htm
overall fresh rain-bands will form along SAP-NTN by tomorrow morning…
Chennai going to see severe rain in tonight
Paul the Octopus prediction(forecast ) is it
Ya
This Paul predicted World Cup foot ball matches perfectly. Google and find out
Yepp thanks 🙂
as per radar heavy rain lashing karaikal surroundings…
Since IMD has confirmed today tat radar at karaikal will b in action from may end its raining
see vizag radar now…
Radar Animation shows that TS moving from West to East direction, VVP Chennai also shows winds from WSW to ENE, it has to change first to get TS tonight.
which area your staying in rajkilpakkam?
Ranga Colony…
near KV School or signal ?
not that side, it is near Signal, Indian Bank Street
oh k k im staying in madambakkam
I think three wizards are staying in and around Madambakkam correct
You me and GTS are staying close…
What was scenario last week rain – is it not the same?
Will that wind direction change ? What’s your idea on this?
Partha,
AP & Telangana states going to receive normal/above normal SWM-rains as against JAMSTEC-forecast (even IMD’s monthly rainfall forecasts indicate this good rainfall scenario for AP&TS).
coming conclusion based on past SST-anomalies data
Radar
Sir today any possible rain in chiambaram
Chances are there..
OK wait for happy rain
The following 3 factors are not in favor for Elnino-evolution in 2015 (though its early). One has keep an eye on the following 3 factors before end of spring (till may 31st) or at least end of June to see how forecasted elnino-2015 unfolds.
(1) the SST-anomalies started warming again at A-box after slight cooling trend.
(2) SOI oscillating around -4. It must show decreasing trend and stay at least below -5 before spring.
(3) MJO avoiding date-line presence, which is not a good indication for keeping continuous WWB
SST-anomalies: http://s11.postimg.org/cwuq1dpab/anomnight_4_23_2015.gif
Till now Krishna, Guntur, Prakasam, anathapur, Warangal, Khammam districts recorded heavy rainfalls today morning.
North Coastal AP has more chances in the next 2 days, watch out for very heavy downpour.
Areas from Vijayawada to Rajahmundry will have high velocity.
Partha,
I am thinking JAMSTEC forecast will become wrong in 2015 just like in 2014. what’s ur view.
In general i am saying
1. The forecast of SWM failure will happen if ELNINO emerges by June.
2. SWM will succeed when IOD become Positive before July even though ELNINO emerges.
Partha,
I am thinking jamstec forecast will become wrong for SWM-2015 (unlike SWM-2014).
can we estimate the energy (related moisture) for present rain-wave over AP & TS states coming from recent weakened CC over Arabian ocean that originated from Comarin area (initiated by MJO)??
http://www.weatheronline.in/weather/satellite/India/India/Infraredcolor.htm
cold-wave (chilled) gripping northern USA even at the end of April, which is the indication of Elnino/Elnino-like conditions.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=ir&zoom=&time=
one can get idea after seeing the below satellite picture, how splitted sub-tropical jet stream patterns effecting USA-weather, which is indicative of Elnino/Elnino like conditions.
this may continue even after spring. For this reason Hurricane forecasters reduced (due to increase in VWS) the hurricane-2015 season to 30 year record low.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=eastpac&sat=wg9&prod=ir&zoom=&time=
a low lvl circulation near comrin area is causing som ts developments for south and coastal tn near kkl n surroundings,
looks a busy day for south too models again failed to pick..
will it rain in Bangalore today evening ?
may not 😦
😦 I was planning to leave early to avoid traffic and rain
Very good chance to rain
any specific time frames from the forcast
Not really… But my guess if so it rain after 6
Thanks, i will plan to leave office by 5:30 then 🙂
Models look good..but sky condition doesn’t look that good..Not a cumulus cloud in the sky 😦
yes, i can only see clear blue sky
Cumulus visible towards nw from 2pm, in chn
Ya correct it has started to appear..how did u know..u r in chennai right ?
Oh in chennai ah ..ok ok
Entire stretch has some activity from bng to chn
just now checked, its all up there 🙂
Still there is plenty of moisture distribution in the interior districts to cause thunder storm like yesterday….. Should see today’s evening developments
MJO reluctant to enter west-pacific/date line. This will spoil the chances of generation of powerful westerly wind bursts, which generally fuel the Elnino-evolution process.
Whatever the WWB-related kelvin developed near date-line is by PDO coupled with last active MJO-phase.
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml
Perfect wind direction from north to south to cause storms in chennai
Synoptic Chart & 850hpa Winds
whether the countdown started for today’s show in Chennai ?
Already Started… 10 hours to go
From todays Blore IMD report:
A squall has been reported at 18:07 hrs IST speed gusting 106 kmph from Easterly
direction in Bangalore HAL Airport on 23.04.2015.
😮
:o..Hailstorm Report: On 23.04.2015: Bangalore city & neighbourhood experienced hailstorm measuring approximately 0.5 cm to 2 cm in diameter between 18:30 to 19:00 hrs IST..
😮 106 kmph, i thought wind was around ~70 kmph
What is the chance for today show?.. till now it look bleak…
seems around 6 we will have rain
Sat Image Update
chennai imd- wind direction changes, so u can expect rains in chennai for next 2 days
Today south TN may expect some storms
we can see a line of ts frm w to e probably along the n-s trough line dipping upto chennai lat on radar anim
also winds in vskp n machili radar is strong nw for us its starting to change now in upper lvls.. taking perfect 700 route
yes, it is from nw now
PJ
Great and a simple explanation on Jet Stream troughs above.Very well articulated and explained.Take a bow!
But let us go slow on IMD comments…Let us progress with all.
Its almost an Anvil over the West from Sholinganallur, but it is very weak for the formation.
popup nw starting usual place
Will it rain? Will the fire lit in blog or in our bloggers stomach? Dhik… Dhik…
all eyes on night skys today..of course for rains..