Heavy rain lashes Chennai, Nunga misses out

keaweather 2015, KEA Blog, Summer15

Many areas in Chennai recorded heavy rain and south Chennai recorded 100+ mm yesterday. As usual Nunga missed out terrible. Some showers can be expected today, but it will be mostly dry.

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777 thoughts on “Heavy rain lashes Chennai, Nunga misses out”

  5. Sun has peeped out of dark low clouds here in Thalambur. What is the chance of any more rains today?

    I feel there might be isolated showers to moderate rains in some place of Chennai as moisture is not that much good like yesterday. Thalambur have recorded.0.6mm from the passing shower earlier this morning

    Reply

  13. No stopping of heavy rains in Andhra, ending 8.30 am on 15.04.2015
    ===============================
    The cyclonic circulation over south Madhya Pradesh and neighbourhood now lies over central parts of Madhya Pradesh & neighbourhood and extends between 3.1 and 7.6 kms a.s.l. with a trough from this cyclonic circulation to Lakshadweep area.

    in mm (min 30 mm)

    Chinnamandem – 117
    Rapur – 110
    Nambulipulikunta – 101
    Dakkali – 78
    Kothagunta – 70
    Sambepalle – 66
    Gajulavari Palle – 62
    Podili 59
    Darsigunta Peta – 56
    Konakanamitla – 54
    Pothegunta – 52
    Duttalur – 51
    Madhavaram – 49
    Nuzvid – 46
    Vemanapuram- 46
    Chinnapuram – 45
    Bhavadevarapalle – 44
    Indukur – 42
    Gotur – 42
    Thambalapalle – 40
    Varikuntapadu – 39
    Utukuru – 38
    Chintukommandene – 37
    Letapalle – 36
    Kotavooru – 35
    Macherla – 34
    Darsi – 33
    Sullurpeta – 33
    Ganjivaripalle – 33
    Podili – 32
    Vemula – 32
    Gurramkonda – 31
    Ghantasala – 31
    Thipaipalem – 31
    Chillakur – 31
    Chakrayapet – 30
    Moolavanka – 30
    Seethampeta – 30
    Pantapalem Epuru – 30
    Tada – 30
    Uppalur – 30
    Devapatla – 30
    Obuladevaracheruvu – 30
    Donabanda – 30
    Pulivendla – 30
    Veldurthi – 30
    Kamalapuram – 30
    Obulakkapalli – 30
    Musunuru – 30
    Nyamaddala – 30

    Vagaries Rainman – http://tamilnaduweatherman.blogspot.in/p/blog-page_2.html

    Tamil Nadu Weatherman – https://www.facebook.com/tamilnaduweatherman

    Kea Weather Converse – http://forum.keaweather.org/viewforum.php?f=48

    Reply

  16. Moisture is good today but not consistent. Dont be surprised by a sharp showers here and there. BoB trough of low system at lower levels and UAC at higher levels.

    Reply

    • Weather bloggers like Pradeep John point out that the interaction of the cyclonic circulation with another system over Bay of Bengal and constant moisture incursion had brought heavy downpour over the city in April.

      K. Ehsan Ahmed who operates a private weather website said in the last 15 years, rainfall over the city crossed 20 mm only twice in April. In, 2001 and 2005, Nungambakkam recorded 83 mm and 60 mm in April.

      Reply

      • wished they atleast put the correct figures. it was 83 mm for both 2001 and 2005

      • Congratulations kea…..Your name is published in The Hindu………Hats Off to your dedication & passion.

      • That is okay, referring your name itself speaks volume about your Blog. Well done

    • Sir, it was by our luck and determination the rains happened. that too from sea. Who would have thought rains in april from sea. 5 of us were hopeful of something special and we were awake the entire night. Sriram, Asad, Rainman etc and we got for what we deserved. When others went to sleep. The radar was super active from 2.00 am.

      Reply

      • I know very well that you would not have gone to bed on that day having committed to enthusiastic bloggers to wait till next morning, that is exactly happened , as far as record breaking show – it was only a gift from the sky for your confidence . Keep it up

  21. OMG. Historic rains in Madurai. Many 100 mms reported. MAdurai should be marooned by now.

    Reply

  22. Again much moisture content in the tropospheric levels over west central telangana……
    Today very favourable for thunderstorm development……

    Reply

  25. Times Group NDTV Flipcart, etc commits to withdraw from internet.org; appeals to fellow publishers to follow suit and support net neutrality

    Reply

  29. Rainfall data till 7.30am today.

    Taramani – 116mm
    Devakottai – 100mm
    Periakulam – 100mm
    Dharapuram – 75mm
    Andipatti – 63mm
    Kolapakkam – 57mm
    Anna University – 53mm
    Dindugal – 45mm
    Kollimalai- 44mm
    Manimuthar Dam – 43mm
    Vedasandur – 37mm
    Manamadurai – 35mm
    Kamudhi- 34mm
    Rajapalayam -34mm
    Chembarambakkam – 32mm
    Kangeyam – 31mm
    Tirunelveli – 24mm
    Sathyabama University- 20mm
    Nilakottai – 17mm
    Kovilpatti – 16mm
    Veppanthattai – 15mm
    Thoothukudi Port – 13mm
    Chidambaram – 12mm
    Poonamallee – 12mm
    Madavaram – 11mm
    Tirumayam – 11mm

    Reply

  30. Cloud getting darker and there is likely another show today – probably it is left over of yesterday

    Reply

  32. Today Circulation is slightly more defined @850 in se bay now will pass through s of SL ,tn under its itsinfluence..

    Reply

  38. Congrats PJ And Eshan for again coming up in News.
    It’s has become very regular nowadays that PJ name comes in the newspaper often.
    He deserves a lot for his own way of interpreting rains and his failures are very rare when comes for rainfall prediction.

    Reply

  39. Congrats to PJ and EA.

    But i doubt there were 2 systems?

    Yesterday morning trough chart update shown that there was a cyclonic circulation near GOM and ACC over Myanmar and Adjoining Thailand was fueling this CC over GOM. This has strengthened the easterly winds and ridge was placed at 15N.

    Hence we could get TS from SE due the Ridge running from SE to NW though South Bay-SW Bay-West Central Bay, Central Coast of AP.

    Reply

  40. Its turning out to be a dream APRIL 2015 here… temperature below 25 now with steady drizzles, consistent rains past few days ….

    Reply

  42. Bengaluru city 19mm HAL AP 16.5mm
    Doddenakundi in bengaluru east records max of 31mm
    Beniganahalli 16.5mm

    Reply

      • Yeah.. Looking at first spell the storm did not look to be strong enough to sustain but then there was a second spell.. North blore has got lot.. east blore getting its due now 🙂

      • My house (Sahakaranagar) wasnt so lucky in this spell…. My RG recorded totally 74mm in the last 5 days (i think 1 or 2mm less than city IMD)…. Its the other n.blore areas like GKVK, Vidyaranyapura and Yelahanka which have got atleast 12-14cm in last 5 days….

      • Benniganahalli has got 71mm from this spell.. I am no longer trusting banaswadi numbers..

      • Actually city recorded only 11mm till 11.30 pm yesterday..There was another spell after 11.30 it looks like which added another 8 mm..

      • Oh is it…. I had seen the radar animation at arnd 4am today and didnt see any storm arnd bangalore the past few hours…. May be it was a small one or IMD didnt update the 11:30pm reading correctly….

      • There might have been another spell.. there was light rain and drizzles here well into the night..

      • Yes, Shankar and you are right. There seems to have been some spell in south bangalore and city areas between 12:30 to 1:30am…. Girinagar AWS has recorded ~7mm between 12:30 to 1:30am, so city might have got its additional 8mm from this one….

  43. Trough off tn coast by Friday before dipping into gom during weekend but gfs not expecting any major rain for us..mid shear levels not bad..but still no big cloud development..

    Reply

  48. Moderate chances for rain in Chennai by 17th night to 18th.

    Upper and lower level wind and negative anomalies are favouring. It may not be heavy like yesterday, light to moderate rain is possible. The pic enclosed below shows the similarity at 500 HPA of yesterday morning and 18th morning.

    Also the UAC will be very close to NTN coast, hence interior and south tamil nadu will get heavy rain for the next 48 hours.

    Reply

  51. Periyakulam (Theni Dist)
    15

    Taramani arg (Kancheepuram Dist)
    12

    Dharapuram (Tiruppur Dist), Mulanur (Tiruppur Dist), Aranmanaipudur (Theni Dist)
    11 each

    Chennai AP (Kancheepuram Dist), Tirumangalam (Madurai Dist), Devakottai (Sivaganga Dist), Periyakulam AWS (Theni Dist), Erode (Erode Dist)
    10 each

    Kumarapalayam (Namakkal Dist), Bhavani (Erode Dist), Kamatchipuram (Dindigul Dist)

    9 each

    R.s.mangalam (Ramanathapuram Dist), Palani (Dindigul Dist), Aravakurichi (Karur Dist), Thenkasi (Tirunelveli Dist)

    8 each

    Anna University (Chennai Dist), Manamelkudi (Pudukkottai Dist), Pennagaram (Dharmapuri Dist), Andipatti (Theni Dist)

    7 each…….

    Reply

  53. IMD yesterdays very heavy rainfall zones..

    Periyakulam (Theni Dist) 15

    Taramani arg (Kancheepuram Dist) 12

    Dharapuram (Tiruppur Dist), Mulanur (Tiruppur Dist),
    Aranmanaipudur (Theni Dist) 11 each

    Chennai AP (Kancheepuram Dist), Tirumangalam (Madurai
    Dist), Devakottai (Sivaganga Dist), Periyakulam AWS (Theni Dist),
    Erode (Erode Dist) 10 each

    Kumarapalayam (Namakkal Dist), Bhavani (Erode Dist),
    Kamatchipuram (Dindigul Dist) 9 each

    R.s.mangalam (Ramanathapuram Dist), Palani (Dindigul
    Dist), Aravakurichi (Karur Dist), Thenkasi (Tirunelveli Dist) 8 each

    Reply

  55. Bright sunshine in dindigul after night’s rain…clouds over kodai hills and sirumalai…

    Reply

  56. Partha, with only 850 hpa chart how can u say there was no two systems. Even IMD has stated there is two systems. 850 hpa itself a UAC level. We should not call it as trough chart.

    Reply

    • PJ,

      I missed to attach, even i saw in 850 HPA and 700 HPA wind chart, it was visible, there was a circulation at GOM and SE Bay yesterday morning as per the synoptic chart, whereas in GFS wind map it was missing, only SE bay circulation was visible, that is why i raised this question of 2 systems.

      Reply

    • Check the animation and wind pattern, the winds will be from NW from now on till 18th over coastal TN.
      since a low is forming over SE bay and Adjoining North Indian Ocean, this will trigger the change in wind pattern for next couple of days.

      Low over GOM is weakening.

      Hence watch out for TS over NW, if any..

      Reply

  58. bay getting ready for evening showers for Chennai??? watch out some ts entering in 50km already.. radar…

    Reply

  60. how to login into weather report kea weather blog with this new phone asus zenfone 5?

    Reply

  61. I will be happy if it rains next week ( 19th-25) in karaikkudi & tirunelveli..a func .Since the present trough moves thru Gom..expecting rains over there next week..Will attach pics from there..

    Reply

    • i think present low is moving into west central bay of bengal instead of GOM and this is by seeing the present satellite image

      Reply

  66. Yesterday seems to be rainiest day for TN so far this year.
    17.8mm average rainfall.

    Overall the it exceeded 107% than normal rainfall

    Reply

  75. Yesterday rain came from sea, but now it looks as though we will get rain from land but city might miss again

    Reply

      • Rain is required in the main city Nunga,T Nagar,Kodambakkam,Anna Nagar,Mogappair dint get rains

      • parrys, mylapore,alwarpet, adyar,gundy,saidapet got heavy rains. Even perambur got decent rains. Are these not part of city ?
        there seems a problem with the location of IMD. Nunga should no longer represent city.

      • Not problem with location of IMD….it should be problem with the size of the city rain clouds unable to extend whole of chennai

  77. Chennai beat bangalore the rainfall figures…….
    but bangalore got rains mostly everyday with 78mm till now
    chennai got only one cloud burst with 100+mm

    Reply

  78. Kea, one doubt..when checking the wind pattern, for UAC/trough of low , should we check the winds at 10hpa/50 hpa & for WD/tropical cyclones, should we check at 500hpa?

    Reply

  80. Moderate rain in telangana and rayalaseema

    govindaraopet 64.2 mm
    nagari 56.4 mm
    mominpet 42.0 mm
    kollapur 34.2 mm
    kalakada 24.6 mm
    chodavaram 23.2 mm
    satyavedu 22.2 mm
    mandapalle 22.0 mm
    metpalle 20.0 mm
    yedapalle 18.2 mm
    muthole 16.8 mm
    puttur 14.8 mm
    jukkal 13.6 mm
    rayachoti 13.6 mm

    Reply

  81. Sid, Did you get a response for ur mail to ksndmc? I got a reply now 🙂

    “It is right that the two rain gauges are locted with in 2 km. It is very much valid in an urban area that the rainfall can vary within these two locations The main fundamental of installing such a dense network of TRG in Bangalore is to study such variations. As we

    often expirience that it is raining in one plce and the nearby area has not received rain eg:Mekhri circle it is raining and there is no rain in RT Nagar.

    Anyways our technicians will check for the working of the TRG. thanks for the concern”

    Let us check if they check it..

    Reply

      • There are 2 TRGs within 2kms of each other – banaswadi and beniganahalli.. One always reports considerably lesser than other 90% of time which is kind of hard to believe… I have been observing it since last year. So far one has recorded 97mm for the year and other 130mm for the year… the difference only increases over the year ending up in a difference of 10cm or so at end of the year..

  82. it is surprising Tambaram which also received heavy rainfall y’day, missing from Imd chennai rainfall update

    Reply

  83. thunderstorm struggling to move beyond ponnmalle. but there are chances by late evening. this time, it has to cover chennai city. at least to get a few centimeters though not 10, for consolation.
    ss

    Reply

  84. SWM and NEM Rainfall in Chennai during ELNINO coupled with IOD Years.

    1. South West Monsoon:

    During 14 ELNINO Years, SWM failed 9 times and succeeded 5 times.

    We all know SWM will fail during ELNINO years; it has succeeded 5 times 1957, 1965, 1982, 1991 & 2004.

    A. In 1957 & 1965 ELNINO developed before March itself,hence SWM was not affected much. In 1982, 1991 & 2004
    ELNINO were weak and ENSO values around 0.7 and 0.8 hence not affected the SWM rainfall in Chennai.

    B. SWM Failed in 1951, 1953, 1969, 1972, 1987, 1997, 2002 & 2009.
    ·
    Except 1972, 1987 & 1997, all other years ELNINO was at developing stage like 2014, these unsettled condition impacted SWM performance. These years there was a strong ELNINO developed before May itself, even though 1972 was positive IOD year could not help SWM.

    2. North East Monsoon:

    During 14 ELNINO years, NEM failed 8 times and succeeded 6 times.

    A. The success was in 1969, 1972, 1987, 1997, 2002 & 2009. ELNINO were strong. All years IOD & ELNINO were settled
    by August or September and continued with same value till the onset of NEM.

    B. The failure years 1951, 1953, 1957, 1963, 1965, 1982, 1991 & 2004. These years IOD were inconsistent and Neutral during August and September, hence NEM failed. Except 1982 all other years IOD was neutral. In 1982 ELNINO formed in July itself.

    To Summarise SWM:
    1. If ELNINO developed before SWM and Positive IODdevelops after onset then SWM will succeed
    (E.G. 1963, 1982, 1991), Positive IOD should set in between Jun-July,not early or late, even if it sets in August
    will derail SWM performance, (E.G.1987).
    2. If ELNINO developing during SWM then Positive IOD developed after onset can support SWM.
    3. If ELNINO and Positive IOD both developed before onset of SWM, then SWM will fail.

    To Summarise NEM:
    1. If ELNINO & Positive IOD formed before August and continued till NEM, then NEM does not succeed.
    (E.G. 1963, 1982 & 1991)
    2. If ELNINO formed earlier and Positive IOD gets settled by September, then we will get good NEM.
    (E.G. 1972, 1987, 1997 & 2002).
    3. If ELNINO formed in August and settled in September, then even if IOD is neutral till September, then also NEM successful. (E.G.1969 & 2009).

    Reply

  85. convectional area in western arb sea designated as 90A by navy nrl but conditions r very bad , it wont survive no longer.. dry air killing the system.

    Reply

  86. Updated – SWM and NEM Rainfall in Chennai during ELNINO coupled with IOD Years.

    1. South West Monsoon:

    During 14 ELNINO Years, SWM failed 9 times and succeeded 5 times.

    We all know SWM will fail during ELNINO years; it has succeeded 5 times 1957, 1965, 1982, 1991 & 2004.

    A. In 1957 & 1965 ELNINO developed before March itself,hence SWM was not affected much. In 1982, 1991 & 2004
    ELNINO were weak and ENSO values around 0.7 and 0.8 hence not affected the SWM rainfall in Chennai.

    B. SWM Failed in 1951, 1953, 1969, 1972, 1987, 1997, 2002 & 2009.
    ·
    Except 1972, 1987 & 1997, all other years ELNINO was at developing stage like 2014, these unsettled condition impacted SWM performance. These years there was a strong ELNINO developed before May itself, even though 1972 was positive IOD year could not help SWM.

    2. North East Monsoon:

    During 14 ELNINO years, NEM failed 8 times and succeeded 6 times.

    A. The success was in 1969, 1972, 1987, 1997, 2002 & 2009. ELNINO were strong. All years IOD & ELNINO were settled
    by August or September and continued with same value till the onset of NEM.

    B. The failure years 1951, 1953, 1957, 1963, 1965, 1982, 1991 & 2004. These years IOD were inconsistent and Neutral during August and September, hence NEM failed. Except 1982 all other years IOD was neutral. In 1982 ELNINO formed in July itself.

    To Summarise SWM:
    1. If ELNINO developed before SWM and Positive IODdevelops after onset then SWM will succeed
    (E.G. 1963, 1982, 1991), Positive IOD should set in between Jun-July,not early or late, even if it sets in August
    will derail SWM performance, (E.G.1987).
    2. If ELNINO developing during SWM then Positive IOD developed after onset can support SWM.
    3. If ELNINO and Positive IOD both developed before onset of SWM, then SWM will fail.

    To Summarise NEM:
    1. If ELNINO & Positive IOD formed before August and continued till NEM, then NEM does not succeed.
    (E.G. 1963, 1982 & 1991)
    2. If ELNINO formed earlier and Positive IOD gets settled by September, then we will get good NEM.
    (E.G. 1972, 1987, 1997 & 2002).
    3. If ELNINO formed in August and settled in September, then even if IOD is neutral till September, then also NEM successful. (E.G.1969 & 2009).

    Reply

  87. south indian ocean stays calm for last few days..hopefully tat marks the end of their cyclone season. its time for ITCZ line to climb up north

    Reply

    • hi selvan,already summer onset happened in north indian ocean,i donno why ITCZ is still in south indian ocean,anyways,where is ITCZ exactly now?

      Reply

      • it is not seen clearly but am sure it wont be in s.hemisphere.. it shld b somewhere near equator by tis time(seasonal position).. in next 15 days of time it will b seen in south bay

      • then selvan i think we can expect a cyclone taking birth from ITCZ,is there any chance of LAILA like cyclone in April or May to bring rain to TN,AP?

      • its quite normal to expect lp system forming by early may around the low latitudes of bay.. as far as tn/ap is concerned, system shld form very close to the coast or southwest bay.

  88. ecmwf long range forecast for swm considering the april conditions are out, and tis forecast carries very high importance.. highlights of the forecast

    1.elnino threat remains same for swm .

    2.n.tamilnadu, south ap, gujarat and most nw parts of india r likely to see below average rains

    Reply

  89. cfs expecting above normal ssta in s.indian ocean and below normal sst along most parts of n.indian ocean during core swm months,,tis is too bad. tis kind of conditions had led to monsoon failure in past years

    Reply

  93. Pacific may be primed for powerful El Nino

    https://img.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=https://img.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/files/2015/04/cfs-klotz.jpg&w=1484
    https://img.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=https://img.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/files/2015/04/heat-content.jpg&w=1484

    El Nino is officially here and forecasters say it could grow substantially stronger in the coming months.

    El Nino refers to the episodic warming of ocean temperatures in central and eastern tropical Pacific, which has ripple effects in weather systems around the globe. For example, its presence tends to decrease Atlantic hurricane activity, but increase fall and winter rains in California.

    Forecasting the present El Nino has proven to be a humbling experience. Last spring, the National Weather Service assigned favorable odds for its arrival by the fall, which never happened. A lack of sustained westerly winds, required to transport warm water from western to eastern tropical Pacific, was one reason.

    But now that El Nino conditions are firmly established, forecasters are somewhat more confident the stage is set for intensification.

    Phil Klotzbach, a climate researcher at Colorado State University who studies the effects of El Nino on Atlantic hurricane activity, points to several indicators suggesting El Nino will strengthen, and perhaps substantially.

    In March, Klotzbach says, a burst of westerly winds – the strongest since 1997 – ripped across the tropical Pacific. Although a similar burst – almost as strong – occurred in the 2014, the winds did not persist. “This year’s westerly wind burst was longer-lasting and more intense than last year’s event,” Klotzbach says.

    Klotzbach adds the tropical atmosphere and ocean is much better conditioned for El Nino compared to last year. “The upper ocean heat content is higher,” he says. “This means that there is more fuel for the El Nino to develop. In addition, upper and lower-level winds are more El Nino-like, especially when you look at the longer-term average..

    El Nino conditions have fluorished in recent weeks says Paul Roundy, a professor of atmospheric sciences at the University at Albany. “[B]uoy observations suggest that the growth rate of El Niño conditions over the last few weeks is larger than any past event at this time of the year, even larger than the big event of 1997,” Roundy says. “[T]he present amplitude, when compared with signals at the same time of year, for growing events, is the largest in the historical record going back to 1980.”

    Roundy calls for an 80 percent that strong El Nino conditions will develop this June and July and continue into next winter.

    Reply

  96. El Nino risks rising in India this year, to hurt food inflation: Nomura

    NEW DELHI: The El Nino risks for this year is rising in India and it could result in sub-par rains, hurting rural demand and food inflation in the country, says a report.

    According to the Japanese brokerage firm Nomura, the possibility of El Nino conditions is developing this year and this could possibly push food inflation temporarily higher.

    El Nino conditions often, although not always, result in below-normal rains and hence suggest risk of sub-par rainfall during the monsoon season (June-September).

    The Australian Commonwealth Bureau of Meteorology’s Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) dropped to -11.2 in March from 0.6 in February. A sustained SOI reading below -8 indicates El Nino conditions.

    The bureau has raised the possibility of El Nino conditions developing this year to “at least 70 per cent” from 50 per cent earlier, Nomura said.

    India’s agriculture economy is already reeling under the pressure of consecutive bad kharif (summer) and rabi (winter) seasons.

    Reply

  98. Temperature Today in Tamilnadu & Puducherry (16.04.2015)

    Trichy
    35
    24.6
    Tirupathur
    34.8
    24
    Kanyakumari
    34.1
    24.7
    Palayamkottai
    34
    24
    Vellore
    33.8
    23.9
    Karur Paramathi
    33.8
    20
    Chennai Nungambakkam
    33.7
    25.4
    Madurai
    33.6
    22.9
    Cuddalore
    33.3
    24.7
    Salem
    33.2
    23.1
    Puducherry
    32.6
    24.4
    Chennai Meenambakkam
    32.6
    24
    Coimbatore
    32.5
    22.6
    Dharmapuri
    32.4
    21
    Adirampatnam
    32.1
    24.2
    Pamban
    31.3
    23.7
    Tondi
    30.8
    24
    Karaikal
    30.7
    25.2
    Nagapattinam
    30.3
    25.5
    Thoothukudi
    30.1
    22.1
    Parangipettai
    –
    25

    Valparai
    25.5
    15.5
    Coonoor
    20.2
    14.2
    Kodaikanal
    18.1
    11.8

    Reply