End to dry spell in sight

Entire TN is expected to receive rainfall early next week. There is a chance for Chennai to end its 102 day dry spell on Monday/Tuesday.

Will Nunga be lucky to record its first rain day (>2.5mm) of the year. For Chennai chances are of isolated showers. Upto 10-12 mm is possible in few areas of Chennai.

get

851 thoughts on “End to dry spell in sight

  1. Ehsan – Will Nunga be lucky to record its first rain day (>2.5mm) of the year. This statement you could have removed and could have put 10 mm rain possible in Chennai. They wont let you down. Anyways nice to see rain topic from a dry man like you.

  2. OMG many here believe ECMWF. Many Experts here feel that ECMWF is the best. This is going to make the blog go crazy. 17th April, ECMWF is showing massive rains moving from Bay. Chennai too falls in line. This is better than NEM. If it happens.

    • I am confident about the 14-15th rains. But I am doubting this 17th Rains, Can it happen that too in April. Lets check ECMWF after next model run.

  3. The chances of El Nino, which is strongly associated with lower rainfall in India’s monsoon season, has risen to 70%, the US government’s weather forecaster said on Thursday.The latest NOAA advisory said that compared with last month, more models predict El Nino and that there was greater than 60% chance it will last through autumn.India Meteorological Department has also said its models suggest the conditions in the Pacific Ocean will reach weak El Nino level during the middle of the year.In its experimental seasonal outlook for Asia, the Met department had said there will be more than normal rainfall in India in the April-to-June season.
    livemint.com

  4. PJ,
    How much of rain r u expecting ?

    My expectation, minimum 10mm and Max 20mm for Chennai… But i feel v need more rains now so that we can handle upcoming july deficit….

  5. Guys,

    I would like to repeat my analysis given yesterday afternoon.
    I feel ECMWF giving big hype, no need to question GFS for its consistency.

    Only thins i would say is that TN has chance for TS, but Chennai only one day either by 15th or 16th, that too not 100%.

    parthasri35, Rajakilpakkam • 17 hours ago

    Rain Chances from 13th to 18th in South India.

    Heavy rain with Thunder showers over North Interior TN and Central and South AP and SI and Central KTK from 13th, as there is a collision of winds from Arabian and Bay. 13th and 14th entire South Coastal TN, Central and North Interior TN should get good rainfall. On 15th it may give a rest to TN, but Central KTK and AP will get good rainfall from 13th to 15th.

    Chennai might get its chance by 16th, as the ridge is created and pass through north Chennai, since the ridge is closer we might get some TS on 16th. Only one day Chennai might get some rain. As the ACC over Myanmar throwing its outer band run through Pulicat and Adjoining North Chennai. Hence entire Chennai has good chance.

  6. (13th April): Moderate to rather heavy rain would occur at many places over all the districts of Tamil Nadu and Puducherry.
    OUTLOOK FOR SUBSEQUENT TWO DAYS: No significant change.
    imd chennai

  7. As per Astro ( Panchangam), new Tamil year ” Manmadha”, which starts on 14.4.2015,will give good rainfall to Tamilnadu, The beginning itself looks promising, hope the year will be good in terms of Rain for T.N and especially to Chennai.

  8. As I posted heavy rain with hails lashed kodaikanal yesterday…
    கொடைக்கானலில் இடி, மின்னலுடன் ஆலங்கட்டி மழை மரக்கிளைகள் முறிந்து விழுந்ததால் போக்குவரத்து பாதிப்பு

    கொடைக்கானலில் இடி, மின்னலுடன் ஆலங்கட்டி மழை பெய்தது. பல்வேறு இடங்களில் மரக்கிளைகள் முறிந்து விழுந்ததால் போக்குவரத்து பாதிக்கப்பட்டது.

    ஆலங்கட்டி மழை

    திண்டுக்கல் மாவட்டம் கொடைக்கானலில் கடந்த 10 தினங்களாக கடும் வெயில் அடித்து வந்தது. இதனால் நகர மக்கள் கோடை வெப்பத்தை தாங்க முடியாமல் அவதிப்பட்டு வந்தனர். இந்த நிலையில் நேற்று மாலை 4.45 மணி அளவில் கருமேகங்கள் திரண்டு மழை பெய்யத் தொடங்கியது.

    பின்னர் பலத்த இடி, மின்னலுடன் ஆலங்கட்டி மழை பெய்தது. இந்த மழை சுமார் 1½ மணி நேரம் நீடித்தது. இதனால் ரோடுகளில் மழைவெள்ளம் பெருக்கெடுத்து ஓடியது. மேலும் வெள்ளி நீர்வீழ்ச்சியிலும் மழை வெள்ளம் கொட்டியது. இதை கொடைக்கானலுக்கு சுற்றுலா வந்த பயணிகள் பார்வையிட்டு மகிழ்ந்தனர். மேலும் அதன் அருகில் நின்று புகைப்படமும் எடுத்துக் கொண்டனர்.

    போக்குவரத்து பாதிப்பு

    ஆலங்கட்டி மழை பெய்த போது ஏராளமான சிறுவர்கள் ரோட்டில் விழுந்த ஐஸ்கட்டிகளை சேகரித்து மகிழ்ந்தனர். பலத்த மழை காரணமாக பல்வேறு இடங்களில் மரக்கிளைகளும் முறிந்து விழுந்தன. இதனால் அந்த பகுதிகளில் போக்குவரத்து பாதிக்கப்பட்டது. பின்னர் நகராட்சி அலுவலக ஊழியர்கள் விரைந்து வந்து மரக்கிளைகளை அப்புறப்படுத்தி போக்குவரத்தை ஒழுங்குபடுத்தினார்கள்.

    மரக்கிளைகள் முறிந்து மின்கம்பத்தில் விழுந்ததால் பல்வேறு இடங்களில் மின்தடையும் ஏற்பட்டது. பலத்த மழை காரணமாக கொடைக்கானலுக்கு குடிநீர் வழங்கும் ஏரிக்கும் தண்ணீர் வரத்து அதிகரித்துள்ளது. மேலும் தற்போது கொடைக்கானலில் பிளம்ஸ், பேரிக்காய் சீசன் காலம் ஆகும். இந்த மழையால் பிஞ்சுகள் உதிர்ந்து விடும் என்று விவசாயிகள் கவலை தெரிவித்துள்ளனர்.

  9. The Mid Level (500 HPA) Inverted Trough is the reason behind the upcoming rainfall over South India from 13th.

    The attached figure shows the inverted trough which is going to impact South India from 13th.

    Most troughs of low pressure in the mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere are characterized by decreasing atmospheric pressure from south to north. While inverted troughs are characterized by decreasing pressure from north to south.

    The situation is opposite in the Southern Hemisphere. Inverted troughs in both hemispheres move to the west from the east, while mid-latitude troughs generally move with the westerlies toward the east.

    13th, 14th and 15th will be the peak period for Central and SI KTK, Central and SAP, Western part of Maharashtra, TN and Kerala. These 3 days these places will get good rainfall.

  10. Overall a decent spell of rains could occur over Indian peninsula within 15… But chances are still grim for chennai

  11. The Mid Level (500 HPA) Inverted Trough is the reason behind the upcoming rainfall over South India from 13th.

    The attached figure shows the inverted trough which is going to impact South India from 13th.

    Most troughs of low pressure in the mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere are characterized by decreasing atmospheric pressure from south to north. While inverted troughs are characterized by decreasing pressure from north to south.

    The situation is opposite in the Southern Hemisphere. Inverted troughs in both hemispheres move to the west from the east, while mid-latitude troughs generally move with the westerlies toward the east.

    13th, 14th and 15th will be the peak period for Central and SI KTK, Central and SAP, Western part of Maharashtra, TN and Kerala. These 3 days these places will get good rainfall.

  12. Apparent position of Sun . almost right on top of us …direct insolation and Sun’s radiation would be overhead on us for the next few weeks ….
    Marks the beginning of Tamil New Year ………

  13. Coming to blog after 3 days and seeing lot of positives about rains. Hope the last 3+ months dry spell ends for chennai.

    And hope this is not just a 2 – 3 mm rain which removes any available moisture content and make the coming weeks more horrible. (but which is going to be the sad reality in all possibilities)

    • Shankar we are bound to get rains in April at some point of time. Its 2005 when we last got rains in april and it is more than 10 years now.

      • Statistics by Ehsan 10 days back …
        Kea-Weather Mod • 15 minutes ago
        2.8 mm in first 3 months of the month. This is least rainfall recorded in Nunga since 2001
        2001 – 1 mm (compensated with 84 mm in April)
        2015 – 2.8 mm
        2010 – 5.4 mm upto April (followed by 204 mm in May)
        Will something special happen in 2015 as well?
        So.. this year something special in waiting.

  14. Its raining in mullukurichi,namakkal..sday it rained…at this time of year by around 3 clouds wil form in kolli hills and rains there ..if lucky the clouds will reach namakkal by 5,5.30 and rains..mostly it will be dispersed leaving no trace in namakkal..

  15. Sunday Apr 12Hi: +33° Lo: +27° 7Partly cloudy, possible thunderstorms with rain
    Precip chance: 23%
    Forcea predicts rains on 12th

    • Some of the Southern Districts including Dindigul, Pollachi receiving good rains, Kodaikanal received Hailstorm as per Tamil TV Channels. Hope this bring something to cheer about for Chennai as well – some impact if not a great one

  16. Accuweather Prediction
    Apr 12 – 4 mm
    Apr 13 – 11 mm
    Apr 14 – 21 mm
    Apr 15 – 11 mm
    Apr 16 – 2 mm
    Apr 17 – 5 mm
    Apr 18 – 0 mm
    Apr 19 – 3 mm
    Total — 57 mm

  17. Guys,

    Which one will be interesting SWM OR NeM?
    SWM- heavy TS, Surprise TS, HEAVY RAINS , Mostly evening rains, temperature decreases rapidly when rains start

    NEM- continous rain, not heavy all the times, cant expect rains daily or even once,twice in week also, creating some floods, cant feel much difference in temperature

    • In SWM it is interesting to track clouds in radar and we can see 10cm in just 2 hours,Whereas
      In NEM we can track Cyclones and Predict rains on LPA i will say Both are very interesting

  18. believe me season’f first rain…as always the case you can expect decent amount…my bet 8-10 cms….

  19. Reports of hailstorm in chevella near hyderabad…………Thunder clouds developing and spreading all over

  20. Sharp Showers in Salem for about 25 minutes. Areas around Cosmopolitan club, Shankar Nagar, Ramakrishna Road, 4 roads etc.. Huge relief after a hot day.

  21. Cosmopolitan tennis club, Shankar Nagar . Tennis courts under sheets of water. This area has seen the first rains in 4 months according to my tennis coach friend . He said he badly needed this shower that would help bind the dry courts.

  22. Fire rainbows occur when the sun is above 58 degree horizon and the sun rays directly fall on cirrus clouds containing ice crystals…I usually see them during the onset of monsoon especially in may end and june

    • Dont do measurement based on this, it is not a fool proof. I still have a doubt on heavy rainfall over Chennai.

      Also i could see the convection near the Equatorial Indian Ocean Phase 2, MJO likely to come back.

      Another point is that the East Africa getting lots of rains during this time of the year is not a good sign for SWM season. This is due to ELNINO development. This will weaken somalia jet.

  23. A typical MJO still hovering near Sumatra , and is on the way towards to the Maritime continent, and is currently providing a breeding area for a bulk of active convective cloud clusters along the major equatorial southern Hemisphere , and has also been a source of genesis for Tropical systems in the Southern Indian Ocean..
    It is likely to spin up some vortices around the Australian region in the days ahead ……

  24. Wow……DAY OF 40
    today every major station in rayalaseema recorded exact 40 degree temperature…..
    source…..local temp readings……. Imd Hyderabad website……
    Anantapur 40.0
    Kurnool 40.0
    Tirupati 40.0
    Kadapa 40.0

    Other mandals in rayalaseema

    Nandikotkur 40.9
    Nandyal 40.0

  25. Dusty strong winds in kurnool…….@8 pm now
    smell of soil…
    lightening to near NW
    after a very long time…..
    Red soil dust wind making me feel as if it is a dust storm

  26. Temperature Today in Tamilnadu and Puducherry (10.04.2015)

    Tondi Tops in Min Temp – 29’C

    Madurai
    38.3
    24.3
    Vellore
    38
    26.5
    Karur Paramathi
    38
    24.5
    Trichy
    37.7
    26
    Salem
    37.6
    26.4
    Dharmapuri
    37.6
    24.5
    Palayamkottai
    36
    26.3
    Coimbatore
    35.6
    24.6
    Chennai Meenambakkam
    35
    25.4
    Pamban
    34.7
    26.5
    Adirampatnam
    34.6
    25.9
    Chennai Nungambakkam
    34.5
    27.8
    Cuddalore
    34.5
    26.2
    Tondi
    34.2
    29
    Puducherry
    33.9
    26.6
    Nagapattinam
    33.9
    26.5
    Kanyakumari
    33.6
    27
    Karaikal
    32.9
    26.2
    Thoothukudi
    32.5
    26.3
    Valparai
    27.5
    15
    Coonoor
    24.2
    16.2
    Kodaikanal
    19.6
    11.6
    Parangipettai

    27

  27. Tamilnadu Rainfall ending 8.30am on 10.04.2015 in Centimeters.

    Kodaikanal (Dindigul Dist) – 5

    Pollachi (Coimbatore Dist), Valparai taluk office (Coimbatore Dist) – 4

    Mulanur (Tiruppur Dist) – 3

    Pandavaiyar head (Tiruvarur Dist) – 2

    Peraiyur (Madurai Dist), Chinnakalar (Coimbatore Dist), Udumalpet (Tiruppur Dist), Kayathar arg (Toothukudi Dist), Sattur (Virudhunagar Dist), Ketti (Nilgiris Dist), Kothagiri (Nilgiris Dist), Needamangalam (Tiruvarur Dist), Kollimalai arg (Namakkal Dist), Thalavadi (Erode Dist) – 1

  28. Yes.. the circulation that is going to help TN with relief showers is in India.. Near Rajasthan Gujarat border NNW of Ahmedabad..

    It will dip down with time

  29. BBC News weather presenter makes a special attention for the upcoming rains …
    He says a kink in the Jet Streams, dipping down far south is likely to cause some severe weather for much of the central Indian region extending down south , and along with it, he mentions that , though rains are quite common for central India at around this time of the year, but widespread and extending this south is quite unseasonal ……….
    Shows heavy rain shower for Chennai on Monday

    Click on the video

    http://www.bbc.com/weather/1275339

  30. Severe thunderstorms containing hail can exhibit a characteristic green coloration….
    green clouds are likely when thunderstorm with heavy rain are strongly illuminated from behind by reddish sunlight, such as at sunset.
    The high water content of the cloud absorbs red light, resulting in a green colouration.
    blue-green cloud for larger rain drops,
    and yellow-green cloud for smaller drops,

  31. In a first, state plans 2000 weather stations

    A mid the agrarian crisis intensified by spells of drought, hailstorm and unseasonal rain, the Maharashtra government is working on an ambitious plan to install over 2,000 weather stations, one each for small clusters of about 20-30 villages, to make detailed micro-level weather forecasts available.

    The automatic weather stations will have sensors to record several weather parameters important for agriculture such as temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and direction, rainfall, solar radiation, leaf wetness, soil moisture and temperature and atmospheric pressure. The sensors will also give details on evapotranspiration – theprocess by which water is transferred from the land to the atmosphere by evaporation of soil and other surfaces. Information on most factors will be available every 10 minutes.

    State government officials say that while other states and private companies too have automatic weather stations, this would be the first time in the country that this kind of exhaustive weather data will be made available at the level of every revenue circle. Two companies have qualified on technical grounds to set up the 2,065 automatic weather stations on a public-private partnership.

    A senior official from the state agriculturedepartment said, “Currently, this kind of localizeddata is not available anywhere for the governmentto plan. The machinery of the two companies that have technically qualified is currently being actually tested on field. After that, we will open financialbids. The project is total expected to cost Rs 220 crore, of which the government will provide about Rs 100 crore in installments.”

    He, however, did not disclose the names of the companies that have been technically qualified for the project. A total of seven firms, namely Skymet Pvt Ltd, SPAInstruments, Sutron Corporation, TCS, Atra Microwave Ltd, Obel Pvt Ltd and NCML, had evinced interest in the project and had attended the pre-bid conference.

    The private company, which will be responsible for financing, procurement of thetechnology, installation, operation and its maintenance for a concession agreement of 10 years will be bound to provide the weather data collected to the state governmentfree of cost. To earn revenue and cover operational expenses, the private company can sell the weather data and trends to third parties.

    A senior executive from a company that had evinced interest in the project said, “Other states too have automatic weather stations but this kind of multi-dimensional local datawill probably be available in India for the very first time with this project. The revenue model of selling the data to other parties is very much feasible. There are many entities other than the government who would be interested such as manufacturers of pesticides and fertilizers, insurers for their crop insurance schemes, consultants, powercompanies and so on.”

  32. Kelvin Wave was seen dominating along with MRG wave , and were a source of rains for S.TN and Sri Lanka 3 – 4 days back …..

  33. Valparai pto (Coimbatore Dist)

    7

    Eraniel (Kanyakumari Dist)

    3

    Ayikudi (Tirunelveli Dist), Pechiparai (Kanyakumari Dist), G Bazar (Nilgiris Dist), Bodinayakanur arg (Theni Dist)

    2 each

  34. Small circulation in SSE Bob at 500 main one in central india descending sw over parts of Maha n ktk in coming days

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