Some signs of rain next week

Few weather models are picking some rain for Chennai after the 15th. Entire country has received good rains except Chennai this year. Normally summer picks up after the first summer showers.

15041318_0600

539 thoughts on “Some signs of rain next week

  1. Much better morning in bengaluru today.. Minimum in city at 22.7 and hal ap at 22.5.. Becoming hot now though..

  2. Novak,GTS.. i believe tat 2014 elnino was not evident,conclusive during swm season .. it made most of the experts to go crazy. if one go by the data available for tat particular season,it’s clear tat it wasn’t matching with actual elnino conditions. most of the g experts were saying tat wen oceanic conditions indicated elnino,atmosphere was not on line with elnino.. true indeed. i hav attached an OLR map of june-aug where it was clearly showing precipitation differing from actual elnino conditions during swm. not for tat one reason ,i hav attached ONI VALUES too.even that ONI values didnt matched with elnino. shouting elnino,alarming everyone is not just by seeing warm NINO 3.4 region or some news articles ,there are many another factors that is trade winds,average cloudiness & equ SOI play a role in concluding elnino.. actual elnino evolved only after early oct wich is evident in ONI,precipitation pattern . hav attached three images below

  3. Farm distress appears to have peaked following the latest round of rain and hailstorms in north India late last week which inflicted further damage to crops already hit by unseasonal showers since mid-February, More than 5 lakh farming families, spanning more than 70% of UP’s rural population, have been affected by the unseasonal rains.
    t.o.i

  4. Y’day Max. temp in T.Nadu: Vellore- 101.84*F, Salem – 101.12*F, Trichy – 103.82*F, Madurai – 101.84*F, Karur- 103.28*F, Palayamkottai – 100.58*F, Dhramapuri- 100.76*F,

  5. Tropical Oceans signal potential change

    Sea surface temperatures in the NINO3.4 region are 0.7 °C above normal and the most recent Southern Oscillation Index value to 5 April is -12. Recent warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean has primed the Pacific for El Niño. However, history has shown El Niño does not always develop from the ocean trends currently observed.

    All international climate models monitored by the Bureau predict the tropical Pacific Ocean will reach or exceed El Niño thresholds by mid-year.

    The Indian Ocean Dipole is currently neutral and is forecast to remain neutral for the remainder of the year. While a dipole pattern across the Indian Ocean is not expected, the waters across the Indian Ocean basin are currently warmer than normal and will increase the likelihood of wet weather over western and southern Australia over the next few months.

  6. Dry conditions for northern Australia

    With active convection from the MJO over the Indian Ocean, northern Australia has seen dry conditions. Most models agree that the MJO will weaken as it moves towards the Maritime Continent region toward the end of this week. If the MJO weakens it will have little influence on northern Australia; neither suppressing nor enhancing rainfall.

    However, storms will likely return to coastal parts of the tropical north where humidity remains high. Another burst of the monsoon over Australia is unlikely, although wet conditions and tropical cyclones can develop in April without the influence of the MJO.

  7. Tropical cyclone activity increases over Indian Ocean

    This past week has seen an increase in tropical cyclone activity over the Indian Ocean as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) moved across the region.

    Tropical cyclone Ikola formed rapidly on 6 April over the southern tropical Indian Ocean near 88° E and 10° S. It is forecast to track to the southeast without impacting any land while at tropical cyclone strength, but the remnants of the storm may bring increased rainfall to southern Western Australia later this week.

    Tropical storm Joalane is currently active over the southwest Indian Ocean, about 700 km northeast of Mauritius.

    Atmospheric and oceanic conditions appear favourable for Joalane to strengthen into a severe tropical cyclone as it moves nearer Rodrigues (Mauritius) later this week.

  8. Adding to Selvan’s Point,

    ELNINO has to sustain at threshold limit of 0.8C for at least 3 consecutive times, as the ONI values for each month.

    Also if you see the cloudiness near the date line during June to September 2014 was very less and there was a absence of westerly trade winds.

    If you see now, westerly trade winds slowly picking up and cloudiness also increased drastically.

    Trade winds were weaker than average over the western half of the tropical Pacific for the 5 days ending 29 March (see map). A persistent reversal of wind direction (i.e. from southeasterlies to westerlies) has been observed in parts of the western equatorial Pacific for about seven weeks now. Trade winds in the eastern half of the tropical Pacific were near average.

    ELNINO now a possibility…

  9. El Niño (La Niña) is a phenomenon in the equatorial Pacific Ocean characterized by a five consecutive 3-month running mean of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region that is above (below) the threshold of +0.5°C (-0.5°C).

    Equatorial Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures | El Nino …
    https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/enso/indicators/sst.php

    Since last September mean Elnino conditions have existed, As far as sst is concerned…..

  10. Chennai city wise temperature:
    adyar- 35.0
    perambur-34.8
    guindy-35.1
    pour-35.3
    saidapet- 35.2
    anna nagar- 34.6
    egmore-34.5
    triplicane- 34.7

  11. Nice Topic really,
    I always believed if a low or cyclcone is formed in SW Bay by april or may , it brings lot of rain with it..
    Last year south TN near Tirnuelveli and kanyakumari benefitted a lot in End of april…
    keeping my fingers crossed…Hope the models come good…

  12. Tropical storm ikola….may weaken drastically and could hit extreme sw tip of Australia after skipping Perth

  13. Big distraction is starting tomorrow. A reminder again, all non weather posts will be deleted if posted in the main weather page. All IPL posts must go in the Sports discussion page only.

  14. Diesel vehicles more than 10 years old not to be allowed in Delhi, rules green tribunal – to save weather

  15. SST increasing over West Equatorial Indian Ocean than Eastern Part will cut the chances for Tropical Storm development before SWM. Due to the heating over West will increase the chances of Lows forming near Eastern African Coast and more chances for ACC over Bay of Bengal and East Indian Ocean regions.

    Wind direction at lower level at 850 and 700 HPA levels are also from East to West over Maritime Continent and South Asia, this is another draw back.

    So chances for Tropical Storms during April and May over Bay is a question mark for now….

    • Partha, too early to say and also not tat easy to rule out pre monsoon system. Btw warming western indian ocean is a sign of advancing elnino. Elnino, +IOD is one of the well known combo.

      • ELNINO +IOD is good for SWM season, not for pre-monsoonal TS.

        As you can see that day by day the SST over West IO is increasing, also Kelvin Wave expected around 03rd Week of this month once again, there is a possibility that excess rainfall expected around East Coast of Africa.

  16. TS lined up over 200km NW of Kolkatta. Chances for Hail Strom in Some areas of Assam,Meghalaya,Bangladesh.

  17. NINO 3.4 SST since 1935.

    Average SST in NINO 3.4 during April-May has increased 0.4C in the past 80 years.
    SST was around 27.5 in 1936-1965 and 27.9C from 1981-2010 period.

    The increase is very much higher up to 0.6C during Oct-Dec months.
    SST was around 26.2C in 1936-1965 and 26.8C from 1981-2010 period.

    During 1946-1975 the SST has reduced 0.1C, other periods it was showing gradual increase.

  18. Decrease in temperatures today
    very cool in hyd when compared to last two days……temperature is just 39 today(very low humidity)
    Less temperatures in rayalaseema today
    Anantapur 41
    kurnool 40.8

  19. Very Intense TS lining up over 100km NW of Kolkatta. Intense Norwesters.
    Strom of the Year yet.

  20. World’s Significant Climate Events 2014…

    Global Highlights:
    The year 2014 was the warmest year across global land and ocean surfaces since records began in 1880. The annually-averaged temperature was 0.69°C (1.24°F) above the 20th century average of 13.9°C (57.0°F), easily breaking the previous records of 2005 and 2010 by 0.04°C (0.07°F). This also marks the 38th consecutive year (since 1977) that the yearly global temperature was above average. Including 2014, 9 of the 10 warmest years in the 135-year period of record have occurred in the 21st century. 1998 currently ranks as the fourth warmest year on record.

    The 2014 global average ocean temperature was also record high, at 0.57°C (1.03°F) above the 20th century average of 16.1°C (60.9°F), breaking the previous records of 1998 and 2003 by 0.05°C (0.09°F). Notably, ENSO-neutral conditions were present during all of 2014.

    The 2014 global average land surface temperature was 1.00°C (1.80°F) above the 20th century average of 8.5°C (47.3°F), the fourth highest annual value on record.

    Precipitation measured at land-based stations around the globe was near average on balance for 2014, at 0.52 mm below the long-term average. However, as is typical, precipitation varied greatly from region to region. This is the third consecutive year with near-average global precipitation at land-based stations.

  21. Temperature Today in Tamilnadu and Puducherry.
    Trichy top the list for the straight 3rd day.

    Trichy
    39.6
    26.9
    Tirupathur
    39.4
    24.4
    Salem
    39.2
    26.2
    Vellore
    39
    27.2
    Karur
    39
    25.5
    Madurai AP
    38.5
    25.7
    Dharmapuri
    38.5
    24.5
    Palayamkottai
    38.1
    26.6
    Coimbatore AP
    37
    25.8
    Tondi
    36.2
    28
    Pamban
    35.5
    27
    Adirampatnam
    35.2
    27
    Chennai Meenambakkam
    35
    26.2
    Cuddalore
    34.8
    26.1
    Puducherry
    34.7
    27.2
    Nagapattinam
    34.4
    27.7
    Kanyakumari
    34.3
    25.4
    Chennai Nungambakkam
    34.1
    27.7
    Karaikal
    33.2
    27.1
    Thoothukudi
    31.8
    25.4
    Valparai
    30
    17.5
    Coonoor
    25
    15.8
    Kodaikanal
    20.5
    12.4
    Parangipettai

    26.7

  22. When going with satellite pic it looks lik some showers/heavy clouds,approaching from east.. But real time, I don c anything over sky.. Instead tdy no evng breeze no stars visible..

    • The centre of tat storm is faar away in n sl the reason why the sat pic showing those clouds nearing tn is the intensity, tat storm is centered in sl clouds r towering high intense storms in the centre imagine the same in 3d pic u ll realize

  23. Yesterday Hyderabad begampet imd recorded 6mm of rain
    Todays temperatures
    Anantapur 41.7
    kurnool 40.7
    Tirupati 40.0
    Nizamabad 40.5
    Hyderabad 37.8

  24. This Cyclone probability model shows three probable events in Western Pacific this April ….all surfacing out from central Pacific , just a short distance off the date line …..
    With regards to the Bay of Bengal , the probable area is still shown near N. Andaman Sea and Myanmar coast around the 1st week of May………….

  25. Bloggers, One small doubt

    As earth rotates from west to east…….there will be high east to west moving winds(doldrums) at the equator…..when the upper level winds at the equator travelling from east to west, why does the mjo moves in the eastern direction…..
    Is the eastern movement of the convection favoured by sst ?????

  26. i think models dint pick this rains for s tn today till yesterdays run to good extent… this rains may max last today before moving over, main pic start weekend early nxt week for s tn on d whole

  27. THE CHIEF AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL RECORDED IN
    CENTIMETERS AT 0830 HOURS IST ON
    08-04-2015
    Nagercoil (Kanyakumari Dist)
    4
    Colachel (Kanyakumari Dist)
    1

  28. StationActual Rainfall (in mm.)DistrictCOASTAL ANDHRA PRADESHNIL
    RAYALASEEMA
    RAMAGIRI
    9.2
    ANANTAPUR
    CHENNE KOTHAPALLE
    4.2
    ANANTAPUR

  29. Thunderstorms predicted in bengaluru daily from 11th till 15th… last three April’s has been poor .. forecast looks good for above normal April rains this year :)..hope it happens!!

  30. lucky South TN…massive clouding …why dont we shift chennai to south TN..fed up everytime chennai is getting a miss….

  31. Partha, did u check the moisture level. We will get atleast 5-10 mm rainfall in various parts of Chennai on 14/15. So dont rule of rains for Chennai.

  32. i expect some cloudiness in the next few days and possibility of a mild passing shower not ruled out.. looks like a massive easterly wave below SL and could push moisture upto chennai.

  33. just 2 days to go..for my public examinations to get over..after that i will be fully in this blog..

  34. Hi bloggers I am blogging here after a long time. I am expecting some good showers for Chennai!☺

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