Increase in temperature likely

keaweather 2015, KEA Blog, Summer15

There could be a mini heat wave on Friday/Saturday with temperature expected to touch 38. This is very unusual so early in April, lets see if it materialises.

Looks like a long summer is ahead of us.

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581 thoughts on “Increase in temperature likely”

  4. Muthupet and Kanykumari gets heavy rainfall, TN rainfall ending 8.30 am on 31.03.2015
    ============================================
    The cyclonic circulation extending upto 0.9 km a.s.l. ov er Comorin – Maldives area now lies over Lakshdweep area and neighbourhood. A wind discontinuity from the above cyclonic circulation persists from south Madhya Maharashtra across Kerala and interior Karnataka.

    in mm (min 5 mm)

    Muthupet, Tiruvarur – 98
    Melpuram, Kanyakumari – 76
    Tuticorin, Toothukudi – 34
    Thoothukudi Port, Toothukudi – 31
    Anaikadangu, Kanyakumari – 5
    Nagercoil, Kanyakumari – 19
    Mambazamthuryaru, Kanyakumari – 18
    Koliporvilai, Kanyakumari – 17
    Sivagiri, Tirunelveli – 14
    Adyamadai, Kanyakumari – 13
    Pechiparai, Kanyakumari – 12
    Chittar II, Kanyakumari – 12
    Chittar I, Kanyakumari – 11
    Tiruchendur, Toothukudi – 10
    Killiyoor, Kanyakumari – 10
    Srivaikuntam, Toothukudi – 9
    Bhoothapandy, Kanyakumari – 8
    Karunkulam, Thoothukudi – 8
    Eraniel, Kanyakumari – 7
    Ottapadiram, Toothukudi – 6
    Kovilpatti, Toothukudi – 5
    Thuckalay, Kanyakumari – 5
    Sattur, Virudhunagar – 5
    Neyoor, Kanyakumari – 5
    Perunchani, Kanyakumari – 5
    Kulasekaharam, Kanyakumari – 5
    Karuthancode, Kanyakumari – 5
    Puthen Dam, Kanyakumari – 5
    Mullanikivilai, Kanyakumari – 5

    Vagaries Rainman – http://tamilnaduweatherman.blogspot.in/p/2015-tamil-nadu-rainfall-data.html

    Tamil Nadu Weatherman – https://www.facebook.com/tamilnaduweatherman

    Kea Weather Converse – http://forum.keaweather.org/viewforum.php?f=50

    Reply

  6. LWD gives Karnataka heavy rainfall, ending 8.30 am on 31.03.2015
    ============================================
    The cyclonic circulation extending upto 0.9 km a.s.l. ov er Comorin – Maldives area now lies over Lakshdweep area and neighbourhood. A wind discontinuity from the above cyclonic circulation persists from south Madhya Maharashtra across Kerala and interior Karnataka.

    in mm (min 15 mm)

    Paduvari – 107
    Yadthare – 107
    Siddapura (U) – 74
    Nisarani – 60
    Puttige – 51
    Karopadi – 47
    Udupi – 46
    Mevundi – 45
    Meguda – 40
    Vendse – 39
    Vitla – 37
    Kuppe – 35
    Surathkal – 34
    Jayapura (C) – 31
    Ajekar – 30
    Holalu – 30
    Shigli – 29
    Chandriki – 29
    Habal – 28
    Lingampalli – 28
    Nidugunda – 28
    Sampaje – 27
    Koppa – 24
    Susgadi – 24
    Bhatkal – 19
    Chittapur – 18
    Sitanadi – 18
    Shirali – 17
    Targod – 16
    Puttur – 16
    Kerveshe – 16
    Sagar – 15
    Kuppepadavu – 15
    Mani – 15
    Nandibevur – 15

    Vagaries Rainman – http://tamilnaduweatherman.blogspot.in/p/blog-page_2.html

    Tamil Nadu Weatherman – https://www.facebook.com/tamilnaduweatherman

    Kea Weather Converse – http://forum.keaweather.org/viewforum.php?f=48

    Reply

      • Gops, the Tornado happened on 15th march. it would be nice if we get that video. But the 15th rainfall video is posted.

  8. Micronesia’s Caroline Islands have been taking a beating today from Category 5 Super Typhoon Maysak.

    As of 2 p.m. today EDT (morning on Wednesday in Micronesia), the Joint Typhoon Warning Center pegged Maysak’s strongest sustained winds at 160 miles per hour, with gusts to 195 mph.

    This makes Maysak “one of only three Category 5 storms ever observed in the Northwestern Pacific prior to April,” according to Jeff Masters of Weather Underground.

    http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/imageo/2015/03/31/super-typhoon-maysak/#.VRtrE8JuuSw

    Reply

  19. 1st big Norwestor of the season hits Bengal and Odisha, Rainfall ending. 8.30 am on 31.03.2015
    =====================================
    The upper air trough from Sub Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim to Chattisgarh now lies from Sub Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim to north Bay of Bengal at 0.9 km above sea level.

    in mm (min 10 mm)

    West Bengal
    =============
    Mahua Tea Estate – 68
    Santiniketan ­ 60
    Gheropara – 55
    Murti – 54
    Salt Lake – 49
    Barrackpore – 43
    Katwa – 41
    Malbazar ­ 41
    Malda – 39
    Sekhampur – 34
    Pedong ­ 32
    Kolkata AP – 32
    Panagarh – 29
    Darjeeling – 25
    Bagdogra – 23
    Kolkata – 23
    Aasanol – 23
    Itahar – 21
    Kalimpong – 19
    Balurghat – 17
    Jalpaiguri – 16
    Chopra – 16
    Magra – 15
    Diamond Harbour – 15
    Basirhat – 13
    Kalyani – 13
    Berhampure – 11
    Krishnanagar – 11
    Contai – 10
    Kharagpur – 10
    Uluberia – 10

    Odisha
    =======
    Rairangpur – 60
    Daspalla – 39
    Samakhunta – 30
    Bissem – 30
    Similiguda – 24
    Muniguda – 22
    Kaptipada – 21
    Kotraguda – 21
    Nawana – 20
    Jaipur – 20
    Sorada – 19
    Baripada – 18
    Balasore – 15
    Gania – 13
    Koraput – 11
    Joshipur – 10
    Nilgiri – 10

    Vagaries Rainman – http://tamilnaduweatherman.blogspot.in/p/blog-page_2.html

    Tamil Nadu Weatherman – https://www.facebook.com/tamilnaduweatherman

    Kea Weather Converse – http://forum.keaweather.org/viewforum.php?f=48

    Reply

  22. STY MAYSAK showing a superb outflow ,evenly spread all around but poleward outflow channel is more evident

    Reply

  25. Selvan,

    Isn’t the 588 decameter guiding the system towards NW direction??
    also helping at the moment to build outflow..


    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=wpac&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2015040100&fh=12
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=wpac&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2015040100&fh=24
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=wpac&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2015040100&fh=36
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=wpac&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2015040100&fh=48
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=wpac&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2015040100&fh=60
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=wpac&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2015040100&fh=72

    Reply

    • partha, checkout cimss mean layer winds for w.pacific, u will get some idea on steering..tis is being a super typhoon ,driven by a deep layer ridge,so the maximum weightage maybe given for the 200-400MB layer.

      Reply

  34. Very hot here with some clouds developing. IMD expects rain at many places in kerala and isolated in TN today.

    Reply

  36. Some one has sent me the personal message stating not to post – world weather in this blog….. and requested me to follow the same….. he told me to post only local weather….

    But today & yesterday it seems more post regarding world weather, will that person control himself to avoid posting world weather or this rule is only applicable for me……………..

    Crazy people’s………….. (Don’t ask the person name…., i am not interested to reveal the same… )

    Reply

  37. last few days strong easterlies providing comfort during eve particularly another pleasant evening

    Reply

  39. seems like a low pressure in making in south central bay of bengal.did any body observe that one in the latest satellite image?

    Reply

  40. STY maysak, Convergence is getting concentrated more twrds southern Quadrant.. and also system has weakened a bit .. intensity down to 130 from 140knts

    Reply

  44. Western Ghats of Tamilnadu battering from Heavy TS. Another 100mm may be expected from Nilgris Dist.

    Reply

  51. Watch out for increase in Maximum Temperature in Chennai and TN.

    925 & 850 HPA wind will change its direction in next 48 hours over South India.

    So far this level winds were from SSE, in next 2 days the wind direction will change to Westerly. This is due to a development of ACC near KTK Coast.

    We might experience increase in Day time temperature in the next 48 hours.

    Reply

  52. Temperature Today in Tamilnadu & Puducherry.

    Trichy
    38.2
    26.2
    Salem
    37.2
    26.1
    Karur Paramathi
    37.2
    24.5
    Madurai
    36.9
    26
    Vellore
    36.5
    26.1
    Dharmapuri
    36.4
    23.7
    Coimbatore
    35.7
    25.9
    Pamban
    35.3
    26.4
    Adirampatnam
    34.9
    25.9

    Tondi
    34.4
    27.8 ( Highest Min)

    Chennai Nungambakkam
    34
    27.2
    Cuddalore
    34
    26.1
    Chennai Meenambakkam
    34
    26
    Palayamkottai
    34
    25.1
    Nagapattinam
    33.6
    26.6
    Puducherry
    33.6
    26.4
    Karaikal
    32.8
    25.6
    Kanyakumari
    32.5
    22.6
    Thoothukudi
    30.6
    26.9
    Valparai
    29
    15.5
    Coonoor
    22.2
    15.6
    Kodaikanal
    19.1
    11.5
    Parangipettai
    –
    26.5

    Reply

  53. Tamilnadu Rainfall ending 8.30AM Today in Centimeters.

    Coonoor pto (Nilgiris Dist) – 13

    Coonoor (Nilgiris Dist) – 12

    Muthupet (Tiruvarur Dist) – 4

    Kothagiri (Nilgiris Dist), Thuraiyur (Trichy Dist) – 3

    Bodinayakanur arg (Theni Dist), Bodinaickanur (Theni Dist), Sivagiri (Tirunelveli Dist), Thenkasi (Tirunelveli Dist), Rajapalayam (Virudhunagar Dist), Palayamkottai (Tirunelveli Dist) – 2

    Nagercoil (Kanyakumari Dist), Srivilliputhur (Virudhunagar Dist) – 1

    Reply

  56. Rains likely to continue till Friday, don’t panic: J&K Met

    After 32 years, Jammu & Kashmir has witnessed its highest rainfall in March and the rains are likely to continue up to Friday.

    The intensity of the rainfall in the coming days is expected to be less than what the state has received in the last week of March.

    Director of Meteorology Sonum Lotus told The Indian Express that Jammu and Kashmir has witnessed around 300 mm rains in the month of March. “This year March was the wettest month in last 32 years,” he said, adding that in 1983 the state had witnessed around 365 mm rains.

    “There are many reasons for the consecutive spells of the rainfall in the Valley,” he said.

    Lotus said that rainfall in last September, which triggered massive floods in the Valley, was much higher than what we are witnessing now. “Fresh cycle of rainfall started on Wednesday and the next 24 hours will be crucial. The Valley will witness more rains tonight and after Friday the intensity will be less,” he said.

    He said that people should not panic, but should remain cautious. “This time many rumours about the intensity of rainfall in the Valley are doing rounds on various social networking sites, people should not pay heed to them.”

    Reply

  58. The Muthupet rain video is a clear indication that it wasn’t a proper tornado 😛 That is clearly not supercell rain

    Reply

  66. Todays temperatures of andhra and telangana
    nizamabad 40
    medak 40
    kothagudem 40
    kadapa 40
    nizamabad 39.4
    kurnool 39.1
    anantapur 39.1
    tirupati 37.8
    Hyderabad 37.8

    Reply

  69. Only in Haiyan, i have seen perfect pink symmetry and it is an once in decadal storm.

    Infrared VIIRS images of some of the strongest Pacific tropical cyclones of the past year at their peak intensity. The colors tell us he temperature of the cloud tops. The colder the cloud tops, the higher they are, indicating stronger updrafts and thus a more vigorous tropical cyclone. The white colors are temperatures of -80°C (-112°F), and the pink colors (only seen in Haiyan) are still colder, about -85°C (-121°F). This is the temperature at the very top of the troposphere (base of the stratosphere), about 50,000 feet high. Haiyan (195 mph winds) stands out as being much more intense than the other super storms
    (Rammasun: 155 mph winds; Genevieve: 160 mph winds; Vongfong: 180 mph winds. – TWC



    Reply

  70. Again heavy rain in my native palce in Melpuram, Kanykumari near Thiruparappu / Thiruvattur belt.

    76 mm on 31.03.2015
    22 mm on 01.04.2015 (till today morning 8.30 am)
    46 mm in evening alone.

    Reply

  71. 2nd day of heavy rains in Karnataka, ending 8.30 am on 01.04.2015
    ================================
    The cyclonic circulation over Lakshdweep area and neighbourhood persists and now extends upto 1.5 kms a.s.l.

    in mm (min 20 mm)

    Aithoor – 83
    Bilinele – 83
    Kadaba – 79
    Sulya – 66
    Chitturu – 55
    Kallambalu – 55
    Chitradurga – 55
    Dandeli – 54
    Chikknavangala – 49
    Bantenahalli – 49
    Yamasandi – 49
    Belur – 45
    Konanjageri – 44
    Kikkeri – 43
    Kota – 36
    Bukkambudi – 32
    Horakeredevarpur HD – 32
    Koila – 31
    Ankasandra – 29
    Nagamangala – 29
    Jinnur – 28
    Napoklu – 28
    Albadi – 27
    Londa – 26
    Alur (H) – 26
    Sukravarsanthe – 25
    Ankasandra – 24
    Taraka – 23
    Sunkasal – 22
    Kairakunda – 22
    Gonibeedu – 21
    Koppa – 20
    Kokkada – 20
    Rabakavi – 20
    Channahally – 20
    Amparu – 20
    Shanthahalli – 20
    Sringeri – 20
    Harti – 20
    Asangi – 20
    Mandya PTO – 20

    Vagaries Rainman – http://tamilnaduweatherman.blogspot.in/p/blog-page_2.html

    Tamil Nadu Weatherman – https://www.facebook.com/tamilnaduweatherman

    Kea Weather Converse – http://forum.keaweather.org/viewforum.php?f=48

    Reply

  73. Alert…..
    We need to focus on trend in SST-anomalies next 2 months (before completion of spring) at area 1 (A1) & area 2 (A2) in order to break the “spring hurdle” for the forecasted Elnino-2015 to establish firmly.

    The SST-anomalies must cool down at A1 &A2 for forecasted Elnino-2015 to establish firmly. Especially A2 must cool down.

    Note: A1&A2 SST variations versus regular Elnino/Elnino-modoki/ENSO-neutral type conditions will be discussed later.

    SST-anomalies:http://s12.postimg.org/s115bhyt9/sst.gif

    Reply

    • but rami, in contrast the NINO 1&2 is getting hotter and the forecast suggests that east pacific will be hotter in the next couple of months and west pacific SST will reduce in the coming days.

      also central equatorial pacific is going to remain hot, hence can we say that ELNINO will strongly emerge during the onset of SWM?

      unless A1 cools down, we might see a threat to SWM 2015.

      Reply

  74. Uncomforatable days are here. Nights are getting uncomfortable and Cloud Cover in Nights making temp to reduce in less degrees.

    Reply

  76. Bordoichila continues to hit Assam and Arunachal, Rainfall ending 8.30 am on 01.04.2015
    ================================
    The trough from SubHimalayan West Bengal & Sikkim to north Bay of Bengal now lies as a cyclonic circulation extending upto 2.1 kms a.s.l. over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim and neighbourhood

    in mm (min 10 mm)

    Arunachal
    ==========
    Tuting – 70
    Arzoo – 65
    Etalin – 56
    Bordumsa – 50
    Anini – 49
    Khupa – 39
    Tezu – 39
    Pasighat – 33
    Namsai – 30
    Wakra – 30
    Miao – 28
    Tirap – 26
    Itanagar – 14
    Geku – 11
    Basar – 10
    Changlang – 10

    Assam
    =========
    Gharmura – 110
    Margherita – 50
    Beki Mathanguri – 30
    Tinsukia – 21,
    Kakipather – 21
    Lakhipur – 20
    Dholai – 20
    Dhollabazar – 20
    Harinagar – 17
    Golaghat – 16
    Chouldhowaghat – 15
    Kherunighat – 14
    Kampur – 14
    Lumding – 14
    Matijuri – 14
    Silchar – 13
    Bihpuria – 12
    Udalguri – 11
    Amraghat – 10
    Morang – 10
    Nazira – 10

    Vagaries Rainman – http://tamilnaduweatherman.blogspot.in/p/blog-page_2.html

    Tamil Nadu Weatherman – https://www.facebook.com/tamilnaduweatherman

    Kea Weather Converse – http://forum.keaweather.org/viewforum.php?f=48

    Reply

  78. MJO in phase 3, South Indian Ocean up to 10S is getting most benefitted.

    1. Parts of STN getting some convective activity, rainfall possible today.
    2. Coastal and Interior parts of Kerala will get good rainfall in the next 48 hours.

    Reply

  80. @jon_adam:disqus

    The weakening of Maysak, is due to 2 reasons.

    1. Strengthening of Wind Shear up to 80 knots.

    2. The main reason is that the MJO is in phase 3 and expected to move towards Phase 4 in next few days. This MJO is pushing all 200 HPA steering winds towards East, that is from Bay to South China Sea. Since our Bay and Andaman Sea will have low pressures, the HPA area is getting pushed towards South China Sea, hence an ACC formed over that place. Maysak is moving in opposite direction towards this ACC (dry air region). Since this MJO is strongly pushing the 200 HPA winds, maysak is expected to weaken.

    Reply

  81. While tornadoes can be spawned any time of year the volatile mix of climatological ingredients exist, April is a particularly dangerous month for tornadoes in parts of the U.S.
    Over the past 10 years, April comes in only behind May for average U.S. tornado counts. That average is admittedly skewed by April 2011, in which 758 U.S. tornadoes set a record for any month.
    Of the 59 tornadoes strong enough to be rated F/EF5 from 1950-2014, just over one-third of those – 20 tornadoes – occurred in April. These include four EF5 tornadoes in the April 2011 Superoutbreak and seven F5 tornadoes in the April 1974 Superoutbreak.

    Reply

  82. Coonoor records 4th 100 mm rainfall of 2015, Tamil Nadu Rainfall ending 8.30 am on 01.04.2015
    ================================
    The cyclonic circulation over Lakshdweep area and neighbourhood persists and now extends upto 1.5 kms a.s.l.

    Why is Coonoor getting Heavy Rainfall ?
    ————————–
    Coonoor gets its 4th 100 mm rainfall this year. No other place has even come close to Coonoor’s spell this year even Kashmir or Himachal. Whys is it Coonoor getting such heavy spells. As you all know why Cherrapunji gets heavy rainfall, the moisture laden South West Monsoon winds gets trapped in the Khasi hills valley and thereby getting legendry rains.

    Coonoor as you know is one of wettest place in India during North East Monsoon. The valley is placed such that winds can come into the valley only from east and gets locked. For the past one month, the UAC’s are moving from Comrin Sea into Arabian Sea. while they move into Arabian Sea the wind is from east and its moisture gets locked in the Coonoor valley there by creating heavy rains, these rains last only for 1-3 hours. In this short span of it pours with very heavy intensity. The super spells in Coonoor in 2015. In all the 4 cases, it was a UAC moving into Arabian Sea from Comrin Sea.

    01.04.2015 – Coonoor PTO – 131 mm
    16.03.2015 – Coonoor PTO – 123 mm
    08.03.2015 – Coonoor PTO – 125 mm
    06.03.2015 – Coonoor PTO – 113 mm

    in mm (min 5 mm)

    Coonoor PTO, Nilgiris – 131
    Coonoor, Nilgiris – 121
    Coonoor Agro, Nilgiris – 108
    Muthupet, Tiruvarur – 40
    Kothagiri, Nilgiris – 32
    Thuraiyur, Trichy – 26
    Bodinaickanur, Theni – 22
    Melpuram, Kanyakuamri – 22
    Sivagiri, Tirunelveli – 20
    Thenkasi, Tirunelveli – 20
    Rajapalayam, Virudhunagar – 20
    Narikudi, Virudhunagar – 20
    Palayamkottai, Tirunelveli – 19
    Manjalar, Theni – 18
    Vembakottai, Virudhunagar – 17
    Tirunelveli, Tirunelveli – 17
    Kallikudi, Madurai – 16
    Glenmorgan, Nilgiris – 5
    Pillur, Coimbatore – 14
    Nagercoil, Kanyakumari – 10
    Kulasekaharam, Kanyakumari – 10
    Sothupparai, Theni – 9
    Kariapatti, Virudhunagar – 9
    Srivilliputhur, Virudhunagar – 8
    Kovilankulam, Virudhunagar – 7
    Kanyakumari, Kanyakumari – 7
    Periyakulam, Theni – 7
    Thuckalay, Kanyakumari – 6
    Uthagamandalam, Nilgiris – 6
    Pattukottai, Thanjavur – 5
    Perunchani, Kanyakumari – 5
    Keelapavoor, Tirunelveli – 5
    Kayattar,Thoothukudi – 5
    Pegumbahallah, Coimbatore – 5
    Emerland, Nilgiris – 5

    Vagaries Rainman – http://tamilnaduweatherman.blogspot.in/p/2015-tamil-nadu-rainfall-data.html

    Tamil Nadu Weatherman – https://www.facebook.com/tamilnaduweatherman

    Kea Weather Converse – http://forum.keaweather.org/viewforum.php?f=50

    Reply

  83. Rainfall on 2.4.2015

    Sholavandan (Madurai Dist) 6

    Natham (Dindigul Dist), Usilampatti (Madurai Dist), Tirumangalam (Madurai Dist), Vadipatti (Madurai Dist) 5 each

    Kuzhithurai (Kanyakumari Dist), Peraiyur (Madurai Dist) 4 each

    Kalugumalai (Toothukudi Dist), Airport Madurai (Madurai Dist) 3 each.

    Reply

  89. If you see outside, clouds moving in from west to east as i said yesterday evening.

    parthasri35, Rajakilpakkam • 18 hours ago

    Watch out for increase in Maximum Temperature in Chennai and TN.
    925 & 850 HPA wind will change its direction in next 48 hours over South India.

    So far this level winds were from SSE, in next 2 days the wind direction will change to Westerly. This is due to a development of ACC near KTK Coast.

    We might experience increase in Day time temperature in the next 48 hours.

    Reply

  90. Many parts of Andhra is expected to get more rainfall, as there is huge amount of wind discontinuity.
    Northern and Western part will get more rainfall in next 24 hours.

    These rain will extend to South AP in next 48 hours and to Central and SI KTK during the same period.
    Rain will continue until April 06th over these regions.

    There is some chances for NTN also from 04th to 07th.

    Reply

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    We at KeaWeather have created a KeaWeather League(thanks to Selvafun) in IPL Fantasy website. Those interest can create your fantasy team and join the league and compete against the fellow bloggers

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    League code: 23426

    Reply

  93. I am in Kuwait it was interesting yesterday I was experience a small sand storm in the city, I came to know that Saudi had severe sand strom yesterday. Being my first experience I have enjoyed little bit and feared more

    Reply

  99. Just in about a month’s time “Agni Nakshatram”, will be here , guess this year max. temp. could be some 43 or 44 deg C , in Chennai.
    It has been quite some time , we saw 43 + deg C temps. ……

    Reply

  100. IMD Weather Outlook From 07th April 2015 to 09th April 2015:
    Scattered rain/thundershowers would occur over extreme south peninsular India

    Reply

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