513 thoughts on “Dry end to February highly likely

    • because the WD will pick moisture from Arabian Sea. the coast may get light rains. But the interior will get the bulk of it.

      • I have never seen Gujarat and Mumbai coast receive rains in March. This will be rare event.

  1. Astronauts aboard the International Space Station took these midwinter panoramas of the St. Lawrence River in eastern Canada. The seaway crosses the scene from lower left to top right in the daytime photograph. Clouds mask the river’s full width where it widens into the Gulf of St. Lawrence (top right). This major river connecting the Great Lakes to the Atlantic Ocean is practically invisible in the night image, with only two lines of small town lights to indicate its shorelines.

    The night image does show the city of Montreal as a major cluster of lights. Night lights also make it clear that the provincial capital, Quebec City (population 770,000), is smaller than the Montreal metropolitan area (population 3.8 million). Neither city stands out visually in the daytime photograph.

  2. Visibility is really great , with Spring sunshine, High Pressure right from the lower layers extending till 500 hPa . The best colors of visible spectrum seems making vision beautiful here in Chennai ………….
    Even making clear visibility to small sharp cliff sides of hill ranges facing Sun …

  3. IMD Rainfall Forecast from 27th to 04th.

    The form of ACC near Myanmar and Adjoining North Bay of Bengal and Cyclonic Circulation over North India from 28th or 01st March 2015.

    Also Negative OLR is at its peak.

    Meeting of two different air masses expected next week, dry air from east and moist air from west.
    This will bring up rain over Deccan Plateau, places like Central and North AP, KTK, SI Maharashtra, South MP, Chattisgarh.
    The date between 01st and 05th of March.

    Humidity will be less till 05th over chennai.

    This is the time for change over of lower level wind direction. Once it changes from first week then day and night temp will increase over chennai.

    • An avalanche (also called a snowslide or snowslip) is a rapid flow of snow (a crystalline form of H2O) down a sloping surface. Avalanches are typically triggered in a starting zone from a mechanical failure in the snowpack (slab avalanche) when the forces on the snow exceed its strength but sometimes only with gradually widening (loose snow avalanche). After initiation, avalanches usually accelerate rapidly and grow in mass and volume as they entrain more snow. If the avalanche moves fast enough some of the snow may mix with the air forming a powder snow avalanche, which is a type of gravity current.

  4. Induced LPA strengthens as Western Depression gives Himachal rains, ending 8.30 am on 25.02.2015
    ====================================
    The Western Disturbance over North Pakistan and neighbourhood persists and the associated upper air cyclonic circulation extends upto mid­ tropospheric levels. The induced low pressure area is now seen as a Western Depression over central Pakistan and adjoining Punjab & north Rajasthan.

    in mm (10 mm)

    Kalatop – 62
    Dalhousie – 62
    Bhandal – 60
    Chamba – 45
    Udaipur – 45
    Saloni – 44
    Kheri – 35
    Kasol – 31
    Seobagh – 30
    Manali – 25
    Karsog – 25
    Banjar – 24
    Bijahi – 24
    Dehra Gopipur – 23
    Bhuntar – 19
    Jubbarhatti – 19
    Mashobra – 19
    Bajura – 18
    Shimla – 16
    Chail – 16
    Chelsea – 15
    Manikaran – 14
    Dharmashala – 13
    Solan – 13
    Hipa – 13
    Nauni – 12
    Kausali – 11
    Kangra – 11
    Sarhan – 11
    Kandaghat – 11
    Rohru – 11
    Annu – 10
    Reckon – 10
    Nahan – 10
    Palampur – 10
    Mandi – 10

    Vagaries Rainman – http://tamilnaduweatherman.blogspot.in/p/blog-page_2.html

    Tamil Nadu Weatherman – https://www.facebook.com/tamilnaduweatherman

    Kea Weather Converse – http://forum.keaweather.org/viewforum.php?f=48

  5. Induced Western Depression lashes Kashmir, Rainfall ending 8.30 am on 25.02.2015
    ====================================
    The Western Disturbance over North Pakistan and neighbourhood persists and the associated upper air cyclonic circulation extends upto mid­ tropospheric levels. The induced low pressure area is now seen as a Western Depression over central Pakistan and adjoining Punjab & north Rajasthan.

    in mm (10 mm)

    Banihal – 81
    Kupwara – 69
    Govindapura – 58
    Baramulla – 55
    Pahalgam – 52
    Bhaderwah – 50
    Kukernag – 49
    Batote – 48
    Srinagar – 45
    Malangapura – 43
    Khudwani – 41
    Quazigund – 40
    Gulmarg – 38
    Zainapura – 29
    Katra – 20
    Jammu – 18
    Chatha – 11

    Vagaries Rainman – http://tamilnaduweatherman.blogspot.in/p/blog-page_2.html

    Tamil Nadu Weatherman – https://www.facebook.com/tamilnaduweatherman

    Kea Weather Converse – http://forum.keaweather.org/viewforum.php?f=48

  6. (1) I was little surprised by Elnino-forecast in 2015. I expect Elnino (moderate-strong) may not form 2015. At the maximam ENSO-neutral state (if not mild Lanina) will prevail in 2015 including both SWM & NEM seasons.

    (2) It looks there is some error point in the computer guided model forecasts (as we had seen in 2014-Elnino forecast).

    (3) Expecting early SWM-onset in 2015, if there is no WIDE-SPREAD heavy rains over peninsular India (with/without pre-monsoon BOB-disturbances) in pre-monsoon months like April & May.

  7. The following GWO-prediction about most active Atlantic-hurricane season clearly tells that 2015 can not become a Elnino year. As we know the Elnino’s immediate effect will reflect in suppressed hurricane-activity (due to increase in wind-shear by more southerly dip jet stream patterns).

    so overall I am expecting at least ENSO-neutral will prevail (if not Lanina-modoki) in 2015.

    GWO-2015 hurricane prediction:
    Global Weather Oscillations Inc. (GWO), a leading hurricane cycle prediction company, says the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season will be the most active and dangerous in at least 3 years.
    http://www.prweb.com/releases/2015/01/prweb12423279.htm

    • Very surprisingly northern states to Florida & Texas (especially north/south Carolina) forecasted to receive 8-10″ snowfall. Its very rare phenomenon.

  8. SL lost to England in Jayasuriya’s 400th ODI;
    India lost to Australia in Tendulkar’s 400th ODI; SL lost to India on
    Jayawardane’s 400th ODI. Today is Sanga’s 400th ODI

  9. on occassion of science day celebrations on feb 28th ,all imd chennai functionaries is kept open for general public including doppler weather radar which is in the 10th floor of port trust building .

  10. Kashmir valley has recorded heavy snowfall for the month breaking many previous records. While Banihal received 80.7mm of snow, Srinagar broke last 8 year’s record and received 45mm of precipitation in just 24 hours. Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand also received light to moderate rain in a span of 24 hours.
    The intensity of rainfall will recede after 24 hours. However, north India won’t practically have any break from rainy days till the end of this month.
    t.o.i

  11. Per IMD ” A fresh Western Disturbance would affect Western Himalayan region from 28th night onwards and is likely to interact with an high amplitude easterly wave.” Does easterly wave still exist and if so, any impacts on TN coast?

  12. In a Cyclone, the primary rain band is almost fixed in the vortex rotational frame of reference, whereas , the distant rain bands and secondary rain bands are not so , and move at varying directions.
    The secondary rain band in most cases moves outward in a region radially inward of the primary rain band …………….

  13. Rsrao sir am worried about lanina in 2015…… if it turns into extreme lanina chennai will face super drought

    • It’s easy concept. No need to understand QBO in theory wise. But its application interms of tropics/subtropics activity can be understand very easily.

  14. Ameen there is 50:50 probabity for a super cyclone formation wrt ENSO (in Lanina vs mild-moderate Elnino years) if we see the past records for BOB in 1977,1964, 1990, 2007, 1999 BOB super cyones. But only difference is that in Lanina years super cyclones crossing the coast above 15N (or above AP). In ELnino years super cyclones crossing the coast below 15N (or below AP)

  15. every time it happens
    this is the scenario for TN from 2012

    when a cyclone decides to come to TN on its way one snake

  16. Climate outlook for Australia…..

    1) Likely to be wetter than normal over central parts of Western Australia and central Australia.

    2) Warmer than normal days and nights likely over much of the country, particularly the southeast.

    3) Climate influences include warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in the western tropical Pacific Ocean and to the south and west of Australia.

  17. Rsrao sir
    I love to write weather bulletin so i wrote a funny weather bulletin today please read fully

  18. Here’s a quick recap of all major announcements made by Railway Minister Suresh Prabhu.

    The key themes of the Budget were in line with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s initiatives – Swachch Bharat Mission, Make in India and Digital India.

    1 The most-expected part about this year’s Railway Budget – there is no increase in passsenger rail fares.

    2 Rs.8.5 lakh crore will be invested in Railways in next 5 years.

    3 ‘Operation 5 mins’, wherein passengers travellling unreserved can purchase a ticket in 5 minutes.

    4 Bio toilets and airplane-type vaccum toilets in trains.

    5 Surveillance cameras in select coaches and ladies compartments for women’s safety without compromising on privacy.

    6 Rail tickets can now be booked 120 days in advance.

    7 Speed on nine railway corridors to go up to 200 km per hour.

    8 Wi-Fi in more stations, mobile phone charging facilities in all train compartments.

    9 Facility of online booking of wheelchair for senior citizens.

    10 Satellite railway terminals in major cities.

    11 Centrally managed Rail Display Network is expected to be introduced in over 2K stations over the next 2 years.

    12 All india 24/7 helpline – 138 from March 2015 ; Toll free No.182 for security.

    13 917 road under-bridges and over-bridges to be constructed to replace 3,438 railway crossings; at a cost of Rs. 6,581 crore.

    14 Four Railway Research Centres to start in four universities.

    15 Details about new trains and increased frequency will be announced later in this session of Parliament after review.

    What is the investment plan?
    The Railway Budget envisages an investment of Rs. 8.5 lakh crore in next five years.

    How is it going to be mobilized?
    The Minister suggested that the money could be raised from multiple sources – from multilateral development banks to pension funds.

    What is the action plan in the sphere fund raising?
    Go in for partnership with key stakeholders – States, PSUs, partner with multilateral and bi-lateral organizations other governments to gain access to long-term financing. Also, get technology from overseas. The private sector could be roped in to improve last-mile connectivity, expand fleet of rolling stock and modernize station infrastructure.

    What is the thrust?
    The thrust will be on revamping management practices, systems, processes, and re-tooling of human resources.

    What is the proposal on capacity augmentation?
    1. De-congesting networks with basket of traffic-generating projects will be the priority

    2. Priority to last-mile connectivity projects

    3. Fast-track sanctioned works on 7,000 kms of double/third/fourth lines

    4. Commissioning 1200 km in 2015-16 at an investment of Rs. 8,686 crore, 84% higher Y-O-Y.

    5. Commissioning 800 km of gauge conversion targeted in current fiscal.

    6. 77 projects covering 9,400 km of doubling/tripling/quadrupling works along with electrification, covering almost all States, at a cost of Rs. 96,182 crore, which is over 2700% higher in terms of amount sanctioned.

    7. Traffic facility work is a top priority with an outlay of Rs. 2374 crore .

    8. Award of 750 km of civil contracts and 1300 km of system contracts in 2015-16 on Dedicated

    9. Freight Corridor (DFC); 55 km section of Eastern DFC to be completed in the current year.

    10. Preliminary engineering-cum-traffic survey (PETS) for four other DFCs in progress.

    11. Acceleration of pace of Railway electrification: 6,608 route kilometers sanctioned for 2015-16, an increase of 1330% over the previous year.

    • wi-fi and other things are good to read in paper, let them first upgrade basic amenities in Railway stations, most stations lack even proper toilet, and water facilities.for example, if you see suburban stations, almost all stations lack these amenities, every time they say increasing the fare to give better amenities, but nothing seen in real.

  19. East and NE India may experience severe thunder storms in the first week of March.
    Negative OLR forecast suggests to be at the peak over these regions.

    West and NW India too likely to experience these kind of storms from 27th to 03rd.

    NE States, WB and Jharkhand especially will get more TS activity.

  20. still heavy thunderstorms are continuing in my phone
    last 24 hrs total rains observed in my phone is 630MM

  21. So the first chance of rains for Interior /South TN and Kerala should start by tomorrow afternoon/evening. Tuticorin once again has a good chance.

  22. How aerosols affect tropical rainfall(Stalagmites contain reliable records of past rainfall.)

    ——————————-

    Cooling of the atmosphere results in less rainfall and dry conditions while warming leads to evaporation, convection and rainfall. The study found that since 1900 there has been a steady increase in rainfall in the southern tropics, in contrast to a steady decrease in the northern tropics.

    The researchers analysed a stalagmite found in a cave in Belize (a Central American nation) to construct a record of rainfall patterns in the region over the past 450 years. This site is near the northernmost extent of the ITCZ, a remarkably sensitive location for reconstructing even minor variations in ITCZ position. The team measured Carbon-13 isotope levels over this period in the various layers of the stalagmite. Carbon isotope serves as a good proxy for rainfall as recorded in the stalagmite over the thousands of years of its formation. Stalagmites grow incrementally as drops of water seep through the overlying rock.

    http://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/tp-features/tp-sci-tech-and-agri/how-aerosols-affect-tropical-rainfall/article6934607.ece

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