570 thoughts on “NEM has officially withdrawn

  1. குறள் 9:

    கோளில் பொறியின் குணமிலவே எண்குணத்தான்
    தாளை வணங்காத் தலை.

    கலைஞர் உரை:
    உடல், கண், காது, மூக்கு, வாய் எனும் ஐம்பொறிகள் இருந்தும், அவைகள் இயங்காவிட்டால் என்ன நிலையோ அதே நிலைதான் ஈடற்ற ஆற்றலும் பண்பும் கொண்டவனை வணங்கி நடக்காதவனின் நிலையும் ஆகும்.

    மு.வ உரை:
    கேட்காதசெவி, பார்க்காத கண் போன்ற எண் குணங்களை உடைய கடவுளின் திருவடிகளை வணங்காதவரின் தலைகள் பயனற்றவைகளாம்.

    சாலமன் பாப்பையா உரை:
    எண்ணும் நல்ல குணங்களுக்கு எல்லாம் இருப்பிடமான கடவுளின் திருவடிகளை வணங்காத தலைகள், புலன்கள் இல்லாத பொறிகள்போல, இருந்தும் பயன் இல்லாதவையே.

    பரிமேலழகர் உரை:
    கோள் இல் பொறியில் குணம் இல – தத்தமக்கு ஏற்ற புலன்களைக் கொள்கை இல்லாத பொறிகள் போலப் பயன்படுதலுடைய அல்ல; எண் குணத்தான் தாளை வணங்காத் தலை – எண் வகைப்பட்ட குணங்களை உடையானது தாள்களை வணங்காத தலைகள். (எண்குணங்களாவன: தன்வயத்தன் ஆதல், தூய உடம்பினன் ஆதல், இயற்கை உணர்வினன் ஆதல், முற்றும் உணர்தல், இயல்பாகவே பாசங்களின் நீங்குதல், பேரருள் உடைமை, முடிவு இல் ஆற்றல் உடைமை, வரம்பு இல் இன்பம் உடைமை என இவை.இவ்வாறு சைவாகமத்துக் கூறப்பட்டது. ‘அணிமா’ வை முதலாக உடையன எனவும், ‘கடை இலா அறிவை’ முதலாக உடையன எனவும் உரைப்பாரும் உளர். காணாத கண் முதலியன போல வணங்காத தலைகள் பயன் இல எனத்தலைமேல் வைத்துக் கூறினார். கூறினாரேனும், இனம்பற்றி வாழ்த்தாத நாக்களும் அவ்வாறே பயன் இல என்பதூஉம் கொள்க. இவை மூன்று பாட்டானும் அவனை நினைத்தலும், வாழ்த்தலும், வணங்கலும் செய்யாவழிப் படும் குற்றம் கூறப்பட்டது.).

    மணக்குடவர் உரை:
    அறிவில்லாத பொறிகளையுடைய பாவைகள் போல, ஒரு குணமுமுடையனவல்ல; எட்டுக் குணத்தினை யுடையவன் திருவடியினை வணங்காத தலையினையுடைய உடம்புகள். உயிருண்டாகில் வணங்குமென் றிழித்து உடம்புக ளென்றார்.

    Translation:
    Before His foot, ‘the Eight-fold Excellence,’ with unbent head, Who stands, like palsied sense, is to all living functions dead.

    Explanation:
    The head that worships not the feet of Him who is possessed of eight attributes, is as useless as a sense without the power of sensation

  2. I’ve been noticing that the western suburbs of Chennai are more prone to fog than the parts of the city that’s closer to the sea.

    I just went and saw that there was a thick blanket of fog to the west while Adyar was completely clear…. And there is a noticeable drop in the night temperature as you go to the western parts of the city(For eg Avadi could be up to a degree cooler than George town during the night, which is obviously due to the lack of moisture further inland. Likewise this is the same reason why almost always Meena records a lower minimum than Nunga). but how the moisture gets there to create fog is my question.

    • The more inland the place is, the more it gets colder.. That is why interior india is more colder than coastal..

  3. NEM Withdrawal,

    the same i had said on Saturday that IMD will announce within next 48 hours, the same thing happened.
    but sad to say that NEM has withdrawn, and we have to say bye with heavy heart.
    lets wait for another 9 months.

    below WV image shows that the visibility is very clear over TN, that smoky conditions have moved down below.
    click on the image and open in new page, it will show the correct one.

  4. Rao Sir, what are the values of SOI,MJO and others durings this sleep mode of BOB Jan-Apr…
    and when do we have the web session (SOI,MJO etc) hope most of them are available now from vacation

  5. Telangana gets 1st spell of rains of 2015, ending 8.30 am on 04.01.2015
    ============================================
    The cyclonic circulation over north coastal Odisha and adjoining areas of northwest Bay of Bengal and Gangetic West Bengal now lies over Bangla Desh and neighbourho od and extends upto 1.5 kms a.s.l.

    in mm (30 mm)

    Kaleswaram – 72
    Adavi Somanpalli – 65
    Karimnagar – 64
    Ramagundam – 63
    Manthani – 62
    Nathinoipalle – 62
    Kandikatkoor – 60
    Shivampet – 59
    Gollapalle – 57
    Asifabad – 56
    Bahupet – 52
    Ginnedari – 51
    Rebbana – 51
    Pargi – 49
    Arjunagutta – 48
    Mahadevpur – 45
    Velgatoor – 45
    Basanth Nagar – 45
    Yelgodu – 44
    Argonda – 44
    Thatikonda – 43
    Manal – 43
    Kondapur – 42
    Kathlapur – 42
    Arnakonda – 42
    Janakapur – 41
    Ryali – 41
    Kannepalli – 41
    Nallapalli – 41
    Islampur – 40
    Durshed – 39
    Shanigaram – 38
    Tukkapur – 38
    Borampalle – 37
    Nerella – 37
    Jaina – 37
    Vadi – 36
    Jillella – 36
    Sangareddy – 35
    Dandepalle – 35
    Begumpeta – 33
    Peddalingapuram – 33
    Kolvai – 32
    Jaipur – 32
    Kosgi – 31
    Gannaram – 31
    Mirdoddi – 31
    Ailapur – 30
    Okulam – 30
    Ramagundam – 30
    Gandipalle – 30
    Sirpur – 30
    Rajapet – 30

  6. based on the available data received weather was the triggering factor behind the accident of air asia plane. icing likely causing engine damage, can be a reason- indonesia’s meteorological agency

  7. 5 more months to go for any probability of a May System and add 1 more month to that we will have our first SWM rainfall.. 🙂

  8. Before announcing the withdrawal,Imd normally wait for 3 or 4 days to ensure the decrease in rainfall along the coastal stations and also observe the 3 day average OLR ,moisture content at certain levels of atmosphere,and also synoptic disturbances. all the above conditions have met already so they have announced.

  9. Jamstec Forecast for early 2015

    ENSO forecast:
    The SINTEX-F model prediction shows that a warmer-than-normal condition over the tropical Pacific will continue until the early next year and then turn into El Niño Modoki with the SST anomalies peaking in the central tropical Pacific.
    In consideration of the actual societal impacts, our tentative definition of ENSO (or Modoki) is based on the overall tropical structure and its influences, and is not based only on the single criterion of the Niño 3.4 index scalar variable.
    We believe that this new approach must be elaborated more in a quantitative way.

    Indian Ocean forecast:
    Basin-wide warming will continue to develop in the Indian Ocean in response to the Pacific El Niño/El Niño Modoki until the next boreal summer. Regional forecast: In this boreal winter, as a seasonally averaged view, most parts of western Europe, Africa, Middle East, eastern/western Russia, India, China, Southeast Asia, South American Continent, Canada, western U.S. and the Far East including Japan will experience a warmer-than-normal condition. On the other hand, U.K., southern Russia, and eastern U.S. in particular will be in a colder-than-normal condition.

    The forecasts of seasonally averaged rainfall in this boreal winter show that most parts of Southeast Asia, northern Australia, southern Africa, and Brazil will experience a drier-than-normal condition. This may be partly related to the present weak El Niño and subsequent development of an El Niño Modoki. A wetter-than-normal condition will be expected in U.S., in particular the western U.S., partly due to the warmer-than-normal SST associated with persistence of the newly identified regional phenomenon

    ————————————————————————————————————————————————————-

    Based on the above, the IOD will remain negatively neutral, also ELNINO Modoki is expected by summer, hence SWM season may be on the risk in 2015 if this prediction stays till May.

  10. the below normal rainfall in kanchi dt, affected the arrival of the birds from foreign countries in vedanthankal bird sanctuary this year.

  11. This is summer monsoon forecast from June to August 2015.
    Coastal AP, NE States and Central India are going to get Normal to Excess Rainfall, deficits possible in other areas.
    Another point is that IOD forecast to be negative till April and then slowly coming back to Neutral by July.

    Negative IOD coupled with ELNINO-Modoki may suppress SWM 2015.

    Hence late pick up of SWM in entire country from August is possible.

  12. sat image update
    i think indonesia philipines belt having cloud cover from 0ct 2014 to till now? what may be the reason?

    • I lived in Indonesia for about 6 years during the 90s.
      there are only 2 seasons there one is a rainy season ( musim hujan) which is generally between September to April and a dry season ( musim kemarau) which is between May and August.

      Maximum rainfall happens generally during January there. I have witnessed floods during Jan or Feb.

  13. ELNINO MODOKI & SWM

    The same scenario of Central Pacific heating up was happened in 1986-88, 1992, 1995, 2003, 2005 and 2010.

    Chennai Average Rainfall During SWM-MODOKI
    In 1986, 228 MM
    In 1987, 279 MM
    In 1992, 300 MM
    In 1995, 355 MM
    In 2005, 324 MM
    In 2010, 568 MM, excess.

    2010 was and exception, because the heat over central pacific has drastically cool down by april itself, then in May ENSO became neutral and by June strong LANINA formed, hence SWM was excess.

    ENSO Values in 2010:
    Feb 2010, 1.0
    March 2010, 0.6
    April 2010, 0.1
    May 2010, 0.4
    June 2010, -0.9

  14. IMD daily report says an upper air cyclonic circulation over south west bay. though IMD says NEM has ceased, but rainfall can continue. normally we will have minimum temperatures of 20 & less, but still chennai has not even touched 22 less now a days signalling the fact easterlies are still strong. Under what conditions, IMD declares the end of monsoon is a great wonder.

    SS

    • Hi vela sir, if u post comments for the mentioned pictures..we will come to know what u say about it..& many new bloggers will understand it..some images u posting r with blank comments..

  15. Now cash is accepted for payment of electric bills up to Rs. 5000 as against the limit of Rs. 2000 before. –(TANGEDCO) .For bills above Rs. 5000,cheque or demand draft will be accepted as before.

  16. Nice information,

    1964 dhanushkodi cyclone has favoured much for STN in terms of rainfall, nothing for NTN.
    That year was a Weak LANINA year, the december ENSO values was -0.6, Oct and Nov it was -0.8.
    IOD was strongly Negative – Oct -1.7, Nov -1.55 & Dec -1.24.

    Chennai recorded just 17.01MM throughout that December.

  17. Partha, 2005 doesn’t stay completely as ELnino-Modoki. Till June last week 2005 was in that mode coupled with -ve IOD. So whole country suffered badly with poor SWM. But from mid July onwards this Elnino-Modoki turned Lanina-modoki (with -ve IOD). So remaining 2005 turned very active monsoon conditions including SWM & NEM. Most places india received flooded rains from mid-July till December.

  18. Partha. I will go with “neutral IOD” for November & December in 1964. Reason based on nature of Rameswaram cyclone. It is cat.5 super cyclone. There is high probability go a super cyclone with “dead neutral IOD” ( refer separate thread in weather technical under IOD on BOB cyclones) at that time ( or just prior/before). So I will go with near neutral IOD during November & December in 1964.

  19. The Kashmir Valley is currently under the grip of ‘Chillai-Kalan’ – the 40-day harshest winter period, which begins on December 21. The chances of snowfall are maximum and most frequent during this period and the weather remains cold as the day temperature also dips drastically, freezing most of the water bodies including the famous Dal Lake.

  20. Severe weather warning issued for Canada..yesterday its -32 here in Calgary and now its -22..
    Meanwhile enjoi foggy weather with pongal holidays..

  21. Cold nights expected for next 2 days min temp remain 20.5 to 22.5.
    Chance of showers is pretty much less but can expect good cloud cover atleast to enjoy.

  22. January is one of the very few better months of the year for chennai. Enjoy guys while it lasts..From Jan 14th ( After Shankranthi – Pongal ) the Sun will become visibly stronger..Though the heat wont be felt much…

  23. -28C here in milwaukee. Nose started to burn in just a 30 sec walk from car parking to office 😦 Chennai guys lucky to stay warm 🙂

  24. this pongal might turn into a drizzle day , because there is a possibility of some rain on pongal day for us so until enjoy foggy conditions , my thinking is until this jan we can see some isolated showers and after that complete dry spell can occur in feb

    • Look at the Lifted index nosediving steadily… clear sign that winter and atmospheric stability Is here.

  25. Our system took W NW direction and weakens according to the GEM model…. But one more monster forming near Madagascar

    • Data collected and analysed by the Bureau of Meteorology show that 2014 was Australia’s third-warmest year on record while rainfall was near average nationally.

      Another year of persistent warmth; spring was the warmest on record nationally, with autumn the third-warmest on record
      Overall, 2014 was Australia’s third-warmest year on record: the annual national mean temperature was +0.91 °C above average
      All States, except the Northern Territory, ranked in the four warmest years on record
      National rainfall was near average for the year, with 478 mm (1961–1990 average 465 mm)
      Rainfall was above average for far north Queensland, much of the Northern Territory, inland Western Australia and parts of South Australia
      Rainfall was below average along the western coast of Western Australia and over much of the eastern States

  26. Sometimes, it’s easier to write or draw something than to type. Some tablets, including Microsoft’s Surface and Samsung’s Note
    series come with styluses to do just that, but that means having an extra item to carry around and potentially lose.

    Now you can write on a tablet screen with just an ordinary pen or pencil. Lenovo introduced a technology called AnyPen in its new 8-inch Yoga Tablet 2. Lenovo said the pen or pencil will even make touchscreen navigation easier than using a finger. The tablet is built to withstand normal pressure, but don’t press too hard, or you might scratch the surface.

  27. Coming in for a close-up
    Ask any wildlife photographer and they’ll tell you that one of the most difficult things to photograph is birds in flight. Getting a bird in your sights, tracking it with your lens as it flies, and maintaining focus is a true test of reflexes and predicting behavior. What is even more difficult is getting into a position where you can photograph a bird coming straight toward you. But that’s just what photographer Larry Keller was able to pull off with this fantastic shot of a northern harrier.

    Keller tells the story behind the shot:

    “I love photographing northern harriers. It can be very challenging and frustrating as they hunt close to the ground and tall grass. They dip and dive as they see a mouse or vole on the ground, making it difficult to get and maintain focus. Their body is the same color as the background making them very difficult to track and focus on.

    Courtesy: Photo: Larry Keller/MNN Flickr Group

    “This particular northern harrier, a female, has been hunting in the same field in South Central Pennsylvania for about 3 weeks. I watched her and photographed her almost every day during that time. Northern harriers hunt grass fields in a pattern or route, and I watched her and took notice to the pattern she was using. Sometimes the route may be a half-mile square area or more, and may take an hour or more to complete the pattern back to the start point. Harriers always hunt into the wind with a 10 to 15 mile per hour wind being best. I positioned myself along her hunting route with my back to the wind so she would be hunting in my direction.

    “Photographers must stay hidden. If you’re seen, the harriers will not come close [and] they will change the route they are using. On this day, a some what overcast cloudy day, as she hunted in my direction I snapped eight shots with good focus and seven or eight more that were not. It was only a few seconds until she was so close I couldn’t get a good focus on her, a very frantic few seconds as I tried to maintain focus as she dipped and dived in the wind. You can see in her eyes that she knew something was there, but she passed by me not more that 20 feet away and six or eight feet in the air.”

    Read more: http://www.mnn.com/earth-matters/animals/blogs/photographer-has-an-amazing-eye-to-eye-with-a-flying-raptor#ixzz3O0lzsrcJ

  28. Looks like Positive iod completely terminated.. Now it will b interesting to monitor enso mechanism with no feedback in Indian ocean.. negative iod may surface soon by early summer atm.

      • i feel it is time for sehwag, harbajan , zaheer to hang their boots, though personally i love to watch sehwag again in the team,

      • He have scored back to back ton in last two ranji matches. Still he remains not out with 147runs vs haryana

      • Tats true.dhoni expects consistency from him which is not possible with his approach n style of batting.. But any day batsman like sehwag will always be a nightmare for any kind of bowlers.

      • then. yuvi who scored hatric centuries also have a claim for a spot, but i think the selectors won’t tinker with current odi team to the most

  29. Tropical Pacific waters show signs of cooling

    El Niño-like conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean weakened over the past fortnight, after being close to or exceeding El Niño thresholds for several weeks. Despite this easing, the Bureau’s ENSO Tracker status remains at El Niño ALERT.

    Several indicators have moved back from El Niño thresholds over the past fortnight. Sea surface temperature anomalies have notably cooled by around 0.4 °C in the key NINO regions of the central to eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, although temperatures still remain above average along much of the equator. Beneath the surface, temperatures have also eased closer to average in many areas. The Southern Oscillation Index remains negative, but is not currently at El Niño thresholds as occurred during spring.

    Despite the general step back from El Niño levels, trade winds look likely to weaken once again in coming weeks, which in turn may bring some renewed warming of sea surface temperatures. Climate models generally indicate little significant change over the next two to three months, with warmer than average sea surface temperatures persisting in the tropical Pacific Ocean.

  30. Tropical Pacific Ocean likely to remain near El Niño thresholds over summer

    The tropical Pacific Ocean remains warm, with surface temperatures exceeding El Niño thresholds for several weeks now. However atmospheric indicators of El Niño, such as the trade winds, cloudiness and tropical rainfall, are yet to show widespread and sustained patterns consistent with El Niño.

    Most of the surveyed models forecast tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures to remain near, or just above, El Niño thresholds in January. Most models indicate NINO3.4 will peak at its maximum temperature in the coming months and then begin to cool. However, all models predict NINO3.4 will still be on the warm side of neutral in May 2015.

    Two models indicate El Niño thresholds will continue to be exceeded in May 2015. Model forecasts spanning the autumn months tend to have reduced accuracy than at other times of the year and should therefore be treated with caution.

    The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has no observed impact on Australian climate from December to April due to the natural position of the monsoon trough at this time of year.

  31. First monsoonal burst for the season in northern Australia

    The North Australian Monsoon first set in over Darwin overnight on 31 December 2014. At 9.00 am on 1 January 2015, Darwin Airport had recorded a 24 hour rainfall total of 118 mm. The monsoon trough gradually moved south over the following days. Currently, the monsoon trough stretches from the Indian Ocean over northern Australia to the Coral Sea, with a monsoonal low over Australia’s Kimberley region. The monsoon trough is forecast to remain over the Top End, Gulf of Carpentaria and Coral Sea for the remainder of this week. Another trough over central Australia will continue to cause showers and storms over central and southern Australia. The risk of tropical cyclone development will remain elevated over Australia’s northern waters while the monsoon trough remains active in the region.

    The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a strong driver of variability in the North Australian Monsoon. A moderate strength MJO is currently located over Australian longitudes and is enhancing monsoonal activity across southern Indonesia and northern Australia. The MJO is expected to move slowly eastwards over the western Pacific Ocean over the coming week. Some models indicate it may weaken in strength over the western Pacific, while others indicate it to maintain strength and continue to influence tropical weather. As the MJO progresses into the West Pacific it may suppress monsoon activity over Australia for a short time.

  32. Slight cooling of tropical Pacific waters

    The El Niño-like conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean have weakened somewhat over the past fortnight. However, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) system still remains in a near-El Niño state. The latest NINO3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly is +0.5 °C, almost half a degree less than it was only two months ago. The 30-day SOI value to 4 January is –6.1.

  33. As of now only ECMWF and NASA says that ENSO going to stay beyond the ELNINO threshold limit of 0.8C till May 2015.
    Other forecasters say that ENSO values will reduce to below 0.6C, if this happens SWM 2015 will escape, otherwise if ENSO follows the route of ECMWF and NASA, then SWM 2015 will be pathetic.

  34. A few models are indicating a small system in the Arabian sea off the ktaka Coast sometime this week.One model shows that system travelling eastwards inland

    • equatorial soi… difference in pressure between eq.eastern pacific and eq. eastern indian ocean.. tis one is the key than that one as far as our weather is concerned

  35. A guy has posted this question in climate.gov blog, but there are no answers. Can someone answer this please:

    If El Nino is a difference between average ocean temperatures and the SST at particular place/time, then as ocean temperatures rise in response to global warming the absolute temperature/ heat content bar for calling an El Nino must rise. And, a moderate El Nino of today reflects more ocean basin heat than a moderate El Nino of 40 years ago?

    • good question.. climatological data is the necessary one to track the anomalous change .. In early 2000, most climatology data was the average of 1960-1980 but now its 1981-2005 .so more or less climatological data getting adjusted with global warming scenario

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