653 thoughts on “2014 rains end with 11 cm deficit

    • Rs Rao sir iam obese only because typhoid fever occurred when i was small and doc told me i will become obese… So iam obese only my weight is 45kg…..

      • Really I don’t know this thing. But I also got typhoid fever at the age 10 yrs. I suffered for 3 months. But I never turned obese. I think obesity doesn’t relate to fevers. It’s either daily habits including food, sleep and working style or genetically problems. Moreover it’s better to avoid to eat “junk” food. Be happy with home made food. Take care.

      • Start jogging Ameen or cycling. Push ups at home every alternate day would be good too. I started taking exercise seriously only after i turned 40. I can run 10 km, and i get at least 2 hrs of intense exercise every week. But thanks to my lazy ways (asthma too) when i was young i am a bit overweight.

    • If typhoid fever occurs doctor will tell one we will become obese or we will become very lean… I became obese…..

    • The season will be over today irrespective of when the monsoon withdraws. It is the norm every year. The monsoon will ofcourse end next month. Once it withdraws, they will immediately announce it.

  1. In future, any possible radar in south tamilnadu….? Many south tamilnadu peoples wants radar… Yarukitta sollanum.. tamilnadu government or imd department..

  2. its great year lets get back some wonderful movements inn this year that is regarding rains,floods,cyclone etc..
    we will talk in evening so that all will be there..

  3. So Our season coming to an end.hereafter No more rains I guess for n.tn.. lack of instability conditions killed jangmi inspite of mjo presence .

  4. Already blog has entered dull phase. Only 36 comments till now. Looks like day by day slowly comments will keep decreasing from now onwards before picking up from April/May

  5. Title:

    The influences of ENSO on tropical cyclone activity in the Bay of Bengal during October–December

    abstract:
    The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influence on tropical cyclone (TC) activity (frequency, genesis location, and intensity) in the Bay of Bengal (BoB) during the primary TC peak season (October–December) are studied for the period of 1993–2010. The study shows that during primary TC peak season, accumulated cyclone energy in the BoB is negatively correlated with Niño3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly. Under La Niña regime number of extreme TC cases (wind speed >64 kt) increases significantly in the BoB during the primary TC peak season. The analysis further shows that negative Indian Ocean dipole year is also favorable for extreme TC activity in the BoB during the primary TC peak season. The existence of low-level cyclonic (anticyclonic) vorticity, enhanced (suppressed) convection, and high (low) tropical cyclonic heat potential (TCHP) in the BoB provides favorable (unfavorable) conditions for the TC activity under La Niña (El Niño) regimes together with weak vertical wind shear and high sea surface temperature (SST). The genesis location of TC shifts to the east (west) of 87°E in the BoB during La Niña (El Niño) regime due to the variability in convective activity. The probable reason for the intense TC during a La Niña regime is likely explained in terms of longer track for TCs over warm SST and high TCHP due to eastward shifting of genesis location together with other favorable conditions. The variability of Madden-Julian Oscillation and its influence on TC activity in the BoB during La Niña and El Niño regime are also examined.

    • Key words:

      ENSO, tropical cyclone (TC) activity, IOD, low-level cyclonic (anticyclonic) vorticity, enhanced (suppressed) convection, high (low) tropical cyclonic heat potential (TCHP), vertical wind shear, sea surface temperature (SST)

  6. @kea-weather

    Just an FYI –

    (1) Results for Quiz 7 is yet to be published.
    (2) We havent had any quiz for the past 2 weeks.

  7. 95B done deal for TN.. it will wander in the sea before taken away by steering winds . Clear skies from now on and time to enjoy winter climate..

  8. Hi All,

    This is the forecast given by TNAU on September 17th for NEM 2014.
    The dates of formation of low may be varying, but see the Long Range Forecast.
    75% said that TN will get around 438 MM, we got around 430 MM as of yesterday.
    This forecast was really close.

    by parthasri35 » Wed Sep 17, 2014 12:17 pm

    Shocking News for NEM 2014,

    55% forecast suggests successful NEM this season.

    1. NEM onset by 17th October through LPA in SW Bay..
    2. October 21st to 25th this LPA will become Cyclone..
    3. October 28th to 31st if there is no cyclone near Taiwan and Philippines, then another cyclone will form in Bay.
    4. November 04th to 07th if there is no cyclone near Taiwan and Philippines, then another cyclone will form in Bay.
    5. November 19th to 22 another LPA in SW Bay.
    6. November 26th to 30 another LPA in SW Bay.
    7. January 04th to 07 another LPA in SW Bay.

    Regarding Chennai Rainfall

    30% forecast says total NEM rainfall 868.8 MM
    50% forecast says total NEM rainfall 633.3 MM
    75% forecast says total NEM rainfall 438.6 MM

    one good thing is that, that 30% forecast given for SWM rainfall has worked out,
    that is – 30% forecast predicted 476 MM rainfall for Chennai, that worked out as we know.

    Another forecast is that there will be 13 cyclones which will disturb North Coastal TN this season till January,
    so i bet this 30% will come true.

    http://www.agritech.tnau.ac.in/pdf/2014 … st2014.pdf

  9. End of Season Report,

    This was given by me on September 24th, almost the same happened.

    NAO was neutral during end of September and by 15th October also. Whenever NAO was Positive or Negative NEM did well, if it is neutral then NEM falls short. We are also talking about SOI, which we thought that it has to be near Neutral and it should not be Strongly Negative, yes it may be useful when a system has formed in bay of bengal, but for regular precipitation we need SOI either to be strongly negative or strongly positive especially when IOD is neutral.

    This time SOI was strongly Negative and IOD was Neutral on many occasions, but the ENSO factor did not support the NE Winds to strengthen in South China Sea, couple of time there was a strong system formation in West pacific has disturbed the flow of winds into bay of bengal.

    ELNINO was too inconsistent during this season, this has also caused the NEM to fell short. This was due to weaker Kelvin Waves, this wave has formed very late in December after ENSO touching the threshold limit of NINO 3.4 to 0.8C.
    If ELNINO was formed in August and sustained till October, then this NEM would have been different, since the formation happening during NEM has spoiled.

    Couple of times MJO has disturbed NEM. As per my latest observation MJO is a villain for NTN when IOD is neutral
    during NEM. This MJO has created and pulled the convection below 10N and precipitations was limited to that zone,
    nothing was benefitted for NTN. MJO may be triggering the NEM onset, but that is during the beginning of the season,
    but later on MJO will surely wont help us when IOD is neutral. During Positive IOD years, MJO can support, we have to
    drill down on this factor.

    Hence NAO, ENSO and IOD i see these as non frequent variations, only SOI is frequently variating.
    Hence we have to take NAO and ENSO values from August to First Half of October. IOD from September to first half of October. Based on the values of the above during this period decides the NEM’s fate. When the above three factors are consistent in their values and gets settled at one value in September, we will get good rainfall. Since NAO was weak and fluctuation, also ENSO values were not developing strongly in August and continued to be moderate till October, IOD and SOI could not support NEM, even though SOI was supportive with IOD.

    Finally, if the following factors have supported in the beginning of NEM, then we would have witnessed great end to the season.

    NAO(Base) in SEP and OCT – Either negative or positive.
    ENSO(Base) in SEP and OCT – Strongly positive or neutral.
    IOD(Base) in SEP and OCT – Can be neutral or positive or negative, depends on ENSO factors.
    SOI(Oscillation) in SEP and OCT – Since IOD was neutral, SOI can be either negative or positive, but unsettled this time.

    by parthasri35 » Wed Sep 24, 2014 12:16 pm

    Flash News,

    NEM forecast official from sources, analysed by me.

    First lets see Jamstec Update.

    IOD will remain NEGATIVE in the remaining NEM 2014.
    Precipitation anomaly is on the negative side for this NEM season.
    ELNINO will reach 0.8C, the remarkable point by November End or December.

    It is globally expected that the NEM will be below or near to normal this 2014 season.

    1. In Chennai and North TN will be below or near to normal.
    2. South TN may get normal to excess rainfall this season.

    Find attached graphical representation and link below.

    So far IMD, Jamstec and ECMWF has forecasted in similar fashion.

  10. Around next Monday we can expect a fresh system and thought the 2014 has ended, still we have some rains till 16th Jan.2015. ( as per almanac predictions. let us see. For all practical purpose whatever rains during first 15 days can be reckoned as part of NEM 2014. SO there could be not less than another 10 centimeters of rainfall till Pongal for chennai

    ss

  11. Just went thro all the comments.. Looks like no jangmi for us.. Gotta be content with whateva we have got till now. Bye bye NEM 2014.. 😦

  12. guys, still easterlies is arounding in south bay……we can feel the humidity type climate now with some sweating….so nem still not withdrawn …..

    • easterlies will b seen till end april..there r some conditions to be fulfilled to say whether monsoon is alive or not..it is based on OLR, mid trop humidity and upper levelwinds

  13. 95 b completely skipped south andhra pradesh……machilli- 3mm, ongole- 2.3mm,nellore- 5.9mm……ang giving light rains to north andhra too—– vizag- 8mm, srkakulam- 7mm…….i think so 95b completely made for only CHENNAI

  14. this NEM summary

    very good for southern districts

    good for central districts

    normal for norther districts

    deficient for interior districts

    and over all tn has got its normal rainfall

  15. Hey guys it’s almost close to the off season and blog’s activity will get reduced day by day so we need to decide certain things like getting to know each other in this blog. May be we have to find a way so that ppl of the same age group can atleast mingle and we can make some friends right. That will definitely help.

  16. at last i am happy that NEM is normal.
    last 2 yrs it as below normal.i am very happy and to write exams in schools now.

  17. Guys,

    I am happy that NEM 2014 ended as per my prediction given on 24th September.

    I was predicting that NTN may witness below normal and STN may witness excess.

    Overall Normal Rainfall expected during NEM 2014, the same thing happened.
    I feel very much satisfied.

    Wishing you all very happy new year…

    by parthasri35 » Wed Sep 24, 2014 12:16 pm
    Flash News,
    NEM forecast official from sources, analysed by me.

    It is globally expected that the NEM will be below or near to normal this 2014 season.
    1. In Chennai and North TN will be below or near to normal.
    2. South TN may get normal to excess rainfall this season.

  18. Amazing blog amazing people amazing weather experts and their amazing prediction let it continue for years to come.
    Gud end to nem 2014 for Chennai until
    novakji I ll view ur report after 5th Will continue to blog as usual.
    Happy 2014 and a more happy 2015 to all dear bloggers
    regards
    gully(vijayaprabhu )

  19. government said before they will reduce all prices?
    but now they r going to increase.
    yes after new year rates of tv, fridge, washing machine, two wheelers price to hit:
    by central government of india. hands off

  20. wishing a happy and prosperous new year in advance to all the bloggers, i hope with this amount of rain we would get through the upcoming summers…all the best 🙂

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