1,869 thoughts on “Final system rains postponed to 30th now

  1. 1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.6N 83.2E
    IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.7N 84.6E, APPROXIMATELY 515 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
    OF CHENNAI, INDIA

  2. I really doubt if this system will move North East to Bangladesh or for that matter even to orissa.It might from near srilanka and move west or WNW and give rains to South T.N. At the max it can move up to Pondy.
    Just wait and watch

    • I second your thoughts. Looking at its stubborn movement, it may not survive if it manages to move in that direction. In any case, rain chances look bleak for Chennai for now.

  3. South Tamil Nadu is sure to get rains from this….upto pondy , rains r confirm.chennai’ chances will be decided tomorrow. lets see

  4. As of 00:00 UTC (6.30am ist)Dec 27, 2014:

    Location: 6.8°N 85.2°E

    Maximum Winds: 25 kt

    Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 mb

    • Sir will Chennai get rains from this system? AccuWeather and other all weather forecasts predicting heavy rains from Sunday night till Tuesday morning….

  5. மழை வரும் ஆனா வராது!!
    From vagaries http://www.vagaries.in/
    A Low has formed in the Southern Bay estimated at around 5.5N and 84.4E. In the 700 hpa trough now, expected to deepen from the current status and embed another Low (BB-15) in the 500 hpa trough by Sunday.
    Upper Jet Streams indicate a core around the TN coast. Meanwhile, in the Pakistan/NW India region, the 200 hpa jet streams are expected to get a Southward dip due to rushing in of Northern cool winds pushing in.
    Resultantly:
    1a). The core in the jet streams of the Sub Tropical Ridge situated off the TN Coast will “move” Eastwards. The core, or the clockwise winds at 200 hpa, will circulate clockwise off the TN/AP coast.
    2b). The dipping of the jet streams Southwards, will take a “plunge” upto Sindh/Gujarat regions.
    Hence, due to 1a): The Low, BB-15, will strengthen, but will as a depression at around 998 mb, just miss and skirt along the TN coast and AP coast. Rainfall will be more concentrated in the waters. Chennai and TN coast will get rainfall from 30th.
    BB-15 will skirt the coast and move N/NE along the track.Odisha can expect showers on Tuesday 30th.

    • Sir will Chennai get rains from this system? AccuWeather and other all weather forecasts predicting heavy rains from Sunday night till Tuesday morning….

  6. Most of these models fail when it comes to Bay of Bengal and especially a late December system. History has proved time and again that Late december hardly move North

  7. (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.6N 83.2E
    IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.7N 84.6E, APPROXIMATELY 515 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
    OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
    A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
    (LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC. A RECENT
    SCATTEROMETER IMAGE REVEALS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 25
    KNOT WINDS. A 261611Z METOP-B 89 GHZ IMAGE INDICATES FRAGMENTED
    CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING LOOSELY AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A BROAD
    LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
    WITH MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
    SHEAR OFFSET BY DIFFLUENT FLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
    ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
    TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
    SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM

  8. It has been moving in a NE direction in the last 12 hrs whereas most models assumed a E/SE movement.As BBC weather forecaster commented over TV,most forecasters are spooked by this late-season system and so expect every run to bring in a new element.

    • yes..december system is always un-predictable & that too in end of days is very unimaginable one to predict its path..example: Thane

  9. It has been a second half of november and December of totally absurd predictions and forecasts for chennai, I cant remember a single forecast materializing.

  10. THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.6N 83.2E
    IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.7N 84.6E, APPROXIMATELY 515 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
    OF CHENNAI, remains medium

  11. Heavy rain to continue in TN

    Chennai, Dec 26, 2014, DHNS:

    After few days of respite from the downpour, formation of a new low pressure area over Bay of Bengal, under the influence of North East monsoon, is expected to bring heavy rain in Tamil Nadu from Tuesday.

    “A new low pressure area over Southwest Bay of Bengal and Srilanka coast has became well marked low pressure area. Due to this heavy rain is expected to occur entire Tamil Nadu from Saturday morning”, a senior weather official said on Friday.

    The official also said that the low pressure might turn into a depression depends upon its movement.

      • B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
        (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.6N 83.2E
        IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.7N 84.6E, APPROXIMATELY 515 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
        OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
        A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
        (LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC. A RECENT
        SCATTEROMETER IMAGE REVEALS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 25
        KNOT WINDS. A 261611Z METOP-B 89 GHZ IMAGE INDICATES FRAGMENTED
        CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING LOOSELY AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A BROAD
        LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
        WITH MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
        SHEAR OFFSET BY DIFFLUENT FLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
        ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
        TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
        SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

  12. susa, i was waiting for u.. wat is the record for minimum eye size seen in the history of tropical cyclones? i hav seen 7NM,8NM eye in w.pac and even our nilofer exposed 9NM EYE// any idea? NOW kate has exposed 5NM EYE

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