Upcoming system which has a chance to intensify into a Cyclone is expected to give good rains to Chennai. Will the forecasts turn true and NEM’S final system be beneficial for chennai. Things will be clearer in the next 48 hours.
Upcoming system which has a chance to intensify into a Cyclone is expected to give good rains to Chennai. Will the forecasts turn true and NEM’S final system be beneficial for chennai. Things will be clearer in the next 48 hours.
KeaWeather Archives 
@kea_weather:disqus
Aren’t the models saying no chance of rains for Chennai?
Gfs is promising for rains
Ecmwf shows no rains 😦
From when rain starts and how long it will rain?
Rains may not even materialize. So, nothing is confirmed yet. The consensus among models is that there may not be any rains at all. 😦
It looks like the chances of rain for north coastal TN are dwindling by the day.
Only south coastal TN and Sri Lanka are going to benefit from the current system.
We need to wait and watch how lucky they are with this system. I will be very happy if this system gives anything at all to S TN in the first place.
rain or no rain..enjoi christmas,new year,pongal holiday celebrations..
Rains possible during the weekend.
Oh no. What has happened? It was looking decently good last night and everything’s changed again. Nothing unusual this NEM I guess
The positive topic did the trick 🙂
Good Morning Bloggers! again there is a twist to the story!! take a look at this. It looks like that the sys in the south east bay will be taking charge and 30th it ls likely to be a cat1 (wind up to 90km is seen in the circulation) cyclone. But the movement from south central bay looks to be directly towards north. Interesting
http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/12/30/0000Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-286.79,13.13,1616
System moved sllight NNE.
This doesn’t look promising even for South TN. Sad.
Bay is clearing up fast.. Dry air is taking away whatever that gets formed. No chance a rain
Rightly said. Safe to say that NEM has ended for us
Nit like that
Usually it will look disorganize during night& early morning hrs. No need to panic..llc is present & at 25 kts
See my comment on gfs
4.9 earthquake, 150km ENE of Hachijo-jima, Japan. Dec 26 10:49 at epicenter (19m ago, depth 33km). j.mp/1B8bulU
LLC is exposed.. intensity 25knts
25 kts …system formed..
See my comment above about gfs
super ! where were you while it was showing massive towers:D ?
Yesterday I only posted the image with massive toweers
GFS is confusing very much yesterday morning forecast came that only feeble rain bands will touch chennai and yesterday evening it should cat1 cyclone coming very close to nagapattnim and chennai is getting massive Northern bands then today it is showing only feeble rain bands will touch chennai so we have to wait for another 24hrs to get correct forecast..
So wait until tomorrow
Our waits & beliefs will turn to a positive results only..
Yes
No it will come very very close to nagapattnim and take NE re curve…
May be but conditions wil change to direct to north
Hope conditions do not change
Now NAVGEM showing massive rain bands on chennai with cat 1 cyclone coming very very close to nagapattnim travelling north till chennai S AP the NE re curve….
CMC expecting massive rains in chennai
earth null shows system going away!!!
rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/products/storms/2014IO95/16KMGWVP/2014IO95_16KMGWVP_201412260030.GIF
Come on guys..don’t loose your belief..let wait for next 24 hrs ..this system will surely pound us..not sure for LF..but rains sure…
Yes i was also telling but everyone is saying no rains NEM ended…
Ameen if u r positive i belive it will surely rain☺
Pottuvil 264 mm
What do expect for LF and will it come close to TN coast to provide heavy rains to chennai? One one model is telling something and frequently changing.
Very tough to predict. Let’s see where it curves
GFS Parallel still expects rains for us!
CMC AND NAVGEM expects massive rain bands on us for about 2 days!
It should rain in n chennai it should be heavy to very heavy rains if it doesn’t rain be ready for severe water scarcity in summer.
Our system now has an MSLP of 1004 hPa. IMD still calling it a trough. What to o ? Sad 😦
They ll change after official working hours starts at 9 am
But is anyone working? It’s holiday season
Is it ? IMD officials are working round the clock with regards to a watch in Bay
Hey GTS…. How come ur blogging in the morning? 🙂
Leave at client site ,
Maatanga.. Idha epdiyo SE BOB ku maathiduvaanga
Wow Rogers and Watson gone what a miracle! Now the stage is set for another Smith ton
Ha ha
India let an out of form Watson score a 50
Aswin takes watson wicket
After he scores a 50
10 years , since Tsunami struck the shores of Indian ocean countries …
When I see some videos of it , people were so much unaware of what was in front of them , and stood witnessing it as kind of some wonder //////////////
Kids , here , no words ………
Reminder that Nature rules
Yeah,a sad day it was. Nature shook us for hours together! What a sad morning it turned out for many countries!
Very much true
Pottuvil has received 233 mm in 12 hours :@
See after two days same number chennai will reach in same 12hrs
It already reached yday ameen.. it’s just that i was dreaming
Sorry it is receive no reach
SE part of Srilanka..no surprises
12 hrs ??? Insane
Batticaloa received some rains after 5:30, need to chck 8:30 data
Seems JTWC has upgraded the grade of watch to medium
IMD has upgraded it to trough. damn
IMD is sleeping
They have always joined the party late.. But i would say off late they have become bit better..
Vela, how system is travelling till N-BOB despite dry air?http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/products/storms/2014IO95/16KMGWVP/2014IO95_16KMGWVP_201412260030.GIF
Colomba ??
Hehe 😛 LLCC exposed SE of Pottuvil 😀
v always makes weather tracking agencies to get confused.
My forecast please see and comment
Hey Ameen , try taking a screen shot using Print screen button …that would be more clear
System won’t die Ameen
But it will weaken down due to high shear, low SST, dry air effect etc
R u expecting the system to come this much closer?
Yes
That is his track, he may draw another track like it even brushes the chennai coast and then make a ne curve
Gfs run started lets see and hope
When is your next model run?
Only once in a day after 10min i will give rainfall run
What will be the windspeed
100kmph gusting to 120kmph
Oh thats really good
looking stright of north??
Yes far away from the coast, until it move NW from this frame it will be difficult to get rains..Hope it doesn’t happen
Time for curve
this is only posstive for us…
The
Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) – country’s national weather
forecaster — on Thursday launched an SMS-based alert system for general
public for dissemination of weather and disaster-related (cyclone,
floods, heavy rains) information. http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/IMD-launches-SMS-based-weather-alerts/articleshow/45644559.cms
JTWC:
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED
TO MEDIUM.
Wowooi!
looks some better
It will curve north from now
yes…deffently…
already taking n/e in this run…use loop..
taking n/e…….
strong system…
Heavy rains possible for us! A cyclone can dump rains even if it is 400km away
due to shear?
This system is only going to dump all the rain in the bay when it comes close to north coastal TN!
going——————-
come back otherwise you will killed….
Unstoppable rains in SL. Rains in mm
————————–
Pottuvil – 276
Badulla – 196
Monaragala – 146
Bandarawela – 135
Batticaloa – 124
Kurunegala – 119
Maththala – 115
Hambantota – 112
Katugastota – 97
Galle – 80
Nuwara Eliya – 77
Colombo – 68
Anuradhapura – 63
Ratmalana – 54
Puttalam – 41
Ratnapura – 40
Trincomalee – 40
Maha Illuppalama – 37
Katunayaka – 27
Vavuniya – 24
Wow…See the spatial pattern..S/SE/Central/ even NE like Vavuniya.
thats huge.!! those storms hav literally dumped the moisture like anything..
Still dumping 😦
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/soi.txt
where are the clouds/strong convection?
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/insatsector-ir.htm
This is some sort of secret cyclone. To safeguard from villains, it will act as WML and become cyclone near Chennai.
looks like that 🙂
Even cyclones are trained to survive our bay conditions
Once cyclone, they are great survivors.
So we specially trained brave cyclone to target us
ha..ha..bay effect or -ve bloggers effect???
Bay effect
Even Laila cyclone was struggling to develop but somehow reached Cat 1 and dumped huge amount of rainfall. lets wait and watch. If no rain, Lets have a new year party! 😛
.. on a dry lake!
NZ trashing SL in test match
Nz 348/4 in 63 overs. They can easily reach 500 on day 1
McCullum is going berserk
berserk???
yes rami check his score
195 of 134 balls just missed double
My Rain forecast
Cimss
@final system
r u still destined to tamilnadu waters ?
500mb vorticity still struggling 😦
500 mb vorticity: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=vor2&zoom=&time=
This is the fate of the bay systems lately!
total NEM-2014 systems struggled at 500 mb levels 😦
Chennai may get 150mm to 200mm from this system
how????
My Rain forecast
forecasts all failing 😦
150 to 200mm? OMG…
sat image update
Shear Effects
as per the image shear is increasing is it correct?
Correct : (
Then no cyclone or systems ?
No it is moving towards lower shear
Cricket is considered a great leveller and fans flock to it especially during tough times.
I am worried when I see Susa / Kea / a few discussing Ind-Aus and NZ-SL scores..looks like they have given up on 95B?!
u will get answer from susa as “lol” 🙂
That’s because of height of frustration
More than the models, that made me to worry more.
Today is boxing day. It’s a big sporting day world over. It’s not known for weather.
Yes,I am also looking forward to the evening EPL matches
o who r u supporting /??
I am always a Liverpool fan..but with the exit of Suarez,it has been a downhill
Wow, a true liverpool fan! I thought they lost supporters after Suarez left!
Then change frm tat red to manu red…
But Tsunami hit on this day
was never really interested in 95B for Chennai to be honest, still not expecting anything major but I always follow cricket
So Rami decreasing SOI is good for SL rains ?
Already you have posted SL rains figures….
No Vela I want clarification
Yes, at present SOI decreased towards SL-favorable conditions. So rains are so heavy due to favorable MJO-condition too.
IMD GFS – Animation
http://202.54.31.51/bias/animategfs.php
marsh out
Friends,
I am replacing the existing MJSOI-1G model with its fine tuned version (still its not MJSOI-2G) with in short time.
stay tuned 🙂
marsh out
As minimum temperature begin to fall in chennai i think the begining of end to NEM for chennai has started
Rami I have a HUGE doubt in SOI monthly calculation, anyone would have this. To consider monthly average for a particular day, would we consider the previous 30 days or the following 30 days ?
Susa, its previous 30 days.
u will get answer from the following link.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/glossary/soi.shtml
Hi Sudarshan, what prospects for Chennai?
McCullum missed his 4th double century of the year by 5 runs. His first 2 double tons (224 & 302) came against India.
Neesham also missed century
llc is exposed, convection hav displaced twrds n-nw as shear penetrating from s-s,east
Latest NAVGEM expects a minimal cat-1 cyclone moving parallel to chennai coast and making landfall in N.AP.
They have avoided the NE track.
Like laila
cat.1???? did they defined as cat.1?
Minimal cat-1*
Hi ramichetty srinivasa rao sir
ja burns out
Foreca predicts heavy rain on 29th.
Huge towers only on that day.
almost 40mm predicted.
system not even crossed srilanka boarder. it has to relocate with the other disturbance over south east bay. otherwise not much chances for chennai. next one day could be crucial. very heavy rains reported at srilanka coastal towns particularly south srilanka. slowly it moves to north srilanka also.
ss
Some of the bloggers said exactly the opposite thing couple of days back. They wanted SL system to strengthen and swallow the SE disturbance so that TN landfall is certain
Still it is a possibility and I think that is what is happening. Not expected so high VWS though.
Guys when SOI is negative the models tend to struggle! We saw that last month!… These forecasts can be erroneous so watch out!
Same thing happened to cyclone Ward…
GEM as usual with its humongous predictions.
Expects a massive cyclone moving NE going to bangla lol 😛
Its not at all likely
LOL yea 😛
It is encouraging bit of news. GEM may be wrong about the LF, but it indicates the potential of development in to a strong cyclone which we should not miss.
Well its only very unlikely. The moment the system crosses STN latitude it will interact with dry air and weaken gradually. There is no chance for such a powerful system. Even a layman can tell that!
kate is going strong in s.eastern ind ocean ..it has exposed a very thin hole eye.
Good morning final system
Models have struggled big time for Nilofer, 91B and 92B due to negative SOI!
good morning jupi… i feel the delay was bit unexpected .. outflow from tc kate has created the increase in shear.. lets wait for the shear to get relaxed.. nevertheless surface convergence is increasing n making a strong hold
Were will you end up.. Dissipate in open waters???!!!
i may fizzle out near tn waters if i was forced to move northeast
But at least give us heavy rains and die 😛
hopefully
The models are more confused than us. We have watch it out with hope. No point in thinking about models, which change colors like chameleon.
that’s why I used to stay away from models.
Then how are you going to forecast Rami?
SOI MJO QBO IOD!!!
like the following hudhud track.
MJO & SOI probabilities always gives 2 probable areas. however based on MJO & SOI values one area will be more favorable to other area.
Hudhud-2014 MJSOI-1G track: http://s29.postimg.org/4rspa6q7r/huhud_MJSOI.gif
But Rami you still haven’t explained those examples
need to introduce corrected SOI values in Elnino years. Its not a big deal.
No not those ones, I posted other examples of Myanmar cyclones
Myanmar cyclones?
Yes I’ll post again
What do u expect from this system vorti??
Will it move towards us?
or move NE?
or Vanish away in open waters?
Your opinion…
It’ll smash SL /GOM again
ok..what about our rain?
It’ll also give good rainfall for us 🙂
Noo……..,.,,,……:-(
My wish is direct hit. My opinion is that it will become a strong cyclone of CAT 1. About LF, no opinion so far.
models only to keep us entertain and to make the blog move
That job is done much better by our Ameen
yes ofcourse i mean they have not predicted any meaniningful rain
This system should give rain to Chennai – otherwise very difficult year ahead, what with population explosion and so on.
Cyclone Ward was forecast to move NE by most of the models… Did it happen?
i remember tat was an ultimate shock for the forecasters.
Yeah ultimate shock!
history will repeat?
Hope ur word comes true:-)
No it will rewite!!
Noooookkkokkkkkkkkk
wat happ to the Xmas deadline. ODM vanthara illaya
ODM varlenna ID ban aiyirukkum!
500 traget by kea is not possible
500mm?
Lol
500cm
Ada
5000cm
500 by New Zealand.. !!
Aus-229-5
They have always found a way to comeback in this series so not expecting anything till the departure of last wicket.
There is one good sign though. The heat has increased drastically today. I was unusually sweating on my way to office. It might have increased by 2 Degrees. That will definitely wipe out the dry air away from chennai latitude. So the system can very well sustain if it decides to move N instead of NE..
Sure yes.
again convection strengthening along north-nw of llc..
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/dwr/dynamic/doppler-caz.htm
What is this line, Lakman rekha?
clean slate except lakman rekha or laxman rekha?
Who will clean it
at 12.5N
Our system will cross Laxman rekha like Sita
meanwhile coamps track http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/coamps_docs/codta/2014/tc/95B/2014122518/2014122518.000_track_g1.gif
This is somewhat logical
this is the ideal track and could be a little up. Also this doesn’t looks to become a cyclone status.
40-50knts is a cyclone Ameen. Always see the color code!
Super track Northern bands will pound us like anything!
I do not think it will strengthen as a cyclone. Lets wait and see.
Extended ward-2009 track 🙂
Aana coamps a namba mudiyathe
D:
yes.. bit convincing for us though
Wow!
This was your prediction
Hahaha lol
If this system wants to maintain dignity it has to follow this track otherwise it will face the same fate of nilofer if it moves NE
🙂 get dignity or get lost.
Looks better.
N.bands should give us some rain if this happens.
I am unable to digest system moving NE during december, if it’s summer cyclone atleast we can accept, we have only one system for this NEM and if this also moves then we will have to wait for next year to witness the same.
Dont worry. It wont go NE. Whatever happens its fate will end near TN only.
Very realistic reply
Ideal
We like your loyalty towards TN..but hope you will walk the talk
Hi jees
Rami, can you please explain these 2 cyclones using MJSOI 2G model ?
Here are the SOI values for those months.
April = 8.6
May = -5.1
June = -2.3
Bijli in mid April (Ameen Bijli cyclone :D) hit Chittagong.
Aila in May hit WB east of Sagar island
😀
SOI is not a digital machine in a petrol pump/ATM machine to stop accurately 🙂 Even our motor vehicle we can not stop suddenly.
Bijili:
MJO is around amplitude 2 in phase 5. MJO with amplitude 2 that too in pre-monsoon can trigger a powerful cyclone.
But SOI reached on April 1st till 8.6 (approx. close to 10) before gliding down. This slight MJO & SOI mismatch condition made Bijili a weak cyclone.
Call me ah? Bijli
Yep, cyclone bijli
Bijji
But you haven’t exactly stated MJO values regarding landfall in the 2G version
Its not complete general diagram. moreover its MJSOI-1G (-ve) diagram only. typed wrong 🙂
Ward-2009 extended track is more appropriate track
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-277.50,0.00,786
sat image update
i think it may move towards NE or towards Kate?
Kate?
What’s Kate?
cyclone
Tis is image of cyclone kate
And this is the image track of cyclone
Not towards Kate
you estimating will go to downgrade?down lattitude?
nooo
Noooooo…………………….:-P
Cyclone will form East of SL as per this:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/Basin_NIndian.html
Mjo lle kude 2G 3G irukka? Susu sollitu irunda ne
lol
lol
2G 3G irukka?
See this he is mentioned 2G
But you haven’t exactly stated MJO values regarding landfall in the 2G version
This is KATE
The system slowly shifting itself to the coast of northern srilanka and from there it would merge with other disturbance over bay and by this evening this could again intensity in to depression status east of pamban. tomorrow morning this would move towards NTN coast. let us see.
ss
Apdiya?:-P
So soon? Rapid movement
Mjo lle kude 2G 3G irukka? Susu sollitu irunda ne?
4g is coming soon
ha…he…ha..lol
New research and innovation can bring a updated version
lol…lol…
Other disturbance is almost non existent
Tomo morn?? What do you mean. Pamban express from SL to NTN in 1 day??
may be with flight..
At brahmos speed, that’s our Novak’s ultimate vehicle
ha ha..
I like @final system’s spirited effort in showcasing the only model which is favourable for us — Coamps!
ha..ha…
ada po pa..
still n/e…
going n/w direction??
thane 2 is on the way
ecmwf latest run showing slight n/w direction..
final result n/e…
no rains???
No final result should be nw??:-P
Final system tracking final system ? Super!!!!!!
LLCC clearly seen SE of lanka in the image and new storms forming around the center.