Hopes raised from final system

Upcoming system which has a chance to intensify into a Cyclone is expected to give good rains to Chennai.  Will the forecasts turn true and NEM’S final system be beneficial for chennai. Things will be clearer in the next 48 hours.

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1,315 thoughts on “Hopes raised from final system

    • Rains may not even materialize. So, nothing is confirmed yet. The consensus among models is that there may not be any rains at all. 😦

  1. It looks like the chances of rain for north coastal TN are dwindling by the day.

    Only south coastal TN and Sri Lanka are going to benefit from the current system.

    • We need to wait and watch how lucky they are with this system. I will be very happy if this system gives anything at all to S TN in the first place.

  2. Oh no. What has happened? It was looking decently good last night and everything’s changed again. Nothing unusual this NEM I guess

  3. GFS is confusing very much yesterday morning forecast came that only feeble rain bands will touch chennai and yesterday evening it should cat1 cyclone coming very close to nagapattnim and chennai is getting massive Northern bands then today it is showing only feeble rain bands will touch chennai so we have to wait for another 24hrs to get correct forecast..
    So wait until tomorrow

  4. Now NAVGEM showing massive rain bands on chennai with cat 1 cyclone coming very very close to nagapattnim travelling north till chennai S AP the NE re curve….

  5. Come on guys..don’t loose your belief..let wait for next 24 hrs ..this system will surely pound us..not sure for LF..but rains sure…

  6. It should rain in n chennai it should be heavy to very heavy rains if it doesn’t rain be ready for severe water scarcity in summer.

  7. 10 years , since Tsunami struck the shores of Indian ocean countries …

    When I see some videos of it , people were so much unaware of what was in front of them , and stood witnessing it as kind of some wonder //////////////

    Kids , here , no words ………

  8. JTWC:
    THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED
    TO MEDIUM.

    Wowooi!

  9. Unstoppable rains in SL. Rains in mm
    ————————–
    Pottuvil – 276
    Badulla – 196
    Monaragala – 146
    Bandarawela – 135
    Batticaloa – 124
    Kurunegala – 119
    Maththala – 115
    Hambantota – 112
    Katugastota – 97
    Galle – 80
    Nuwara Eliya – 77
    Colombo – 68
    Anuradhapura – 63
    Ratmalana – 54
    Puttalam – 41
    Ratnapura – 40
    Trincomalee – 40
    Maha Illuppalama – 37
    Katunayaka – 27
    Vavuniya – 24

  10. Cricket is considered a great leveller and fans flock to it especially during tough times.
    I am worried when I see Susa / Kea / a few discussing Ind-Aus and NZ-SL scores..looks like they have given up on 95B?!

  11. Friends,

    I am replacing the existing MJSOI-1G model with its fine tuned version (still its not MJSOI-2G) with in short time.

    stay tuned πŸ™‚

  12. Rami I have a HUGE doubt in SOI monthly calculation, anyone would have this. To consider monthly average for a particular day, would we consider the previous 30 days or the following 30 days ?

  13. McCullum missed his 4th double century of the year by 5 runs. His first 2 double tons (224 & 302) came against India.

  14. Latest NAVGEM expects a minimal cat-1 cyclone moving parallel to chennai coast and making landfall in N.AP.
    They have avoided the NE track.

  15. system not even crossed srilanka boarder. it has to relocate with the other disturbance over south east bay. otherwise not much chances for chennai. next one day could be crucial. very heavy rains reported at srilanka coastal towns particularly south srilanka. slowly it moves to north srilanka also.

    ss

    • Some of the bloggers said exactly the opposite thing couple of days back. They wanted SL system to strengthen and swallow the SE disturbance so that TN landfall is certain

  16. Guys when SOI is negative the models tend to struggle! We saw that last month!… These forecasts can be erroneous so watch out!

  17. GEM as usual with its humongous predictions.
    Expects a massive cyclone moving NE going to bangla lol πŸ˜›

  18. The models are more confused than us. We have watch it out with hope. No point in thinking about models, which change colors like chameleon.

  19. There is one good sign though. The heat has increased drastically today. I was unusually sweating on my way to office. It might have increased by 2 Degrees. That will definitely wipe out the dry air away from chennai latitude. So the system can very well sustain if it decides to move N instead of NE..

  20. Rami, can you please explain these 2 cyclones using MJSOI 2G model ?

    Here are the SOI values for those months.
    April = 8.6
    May = -5.1
    June = -2.3

    Bijli in mid April (Ameen Bijli cyclone :D) hit Chittagong.

    Aila in May hit WB east of Sagar island

  21. The system slowly shifting itself to the coast of northern srilanka and from there it would merge with other disturbance over bay and by this evening this could again intensity in to depression status east of pamban. tomorrow morning this would move towards NTN coast. let us see.

    ss

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