Forecast for Chennai from the next system isn’t looking very positive at the moment. Looks like South TN will again benefit from this. Some light showers cannot be ruled out for chennai.
Forecast for Chennai from the next system isn’t looking very positive at the moment. Looks like South TN will again benefit from this. Some light showers cannot be ruled out for chennai.
KeaWeather Archives 
Let it turn towards Chennai.
Hi
Bye
Still some hopes left , wait till 26
Ok so let’s see how many bloggers are left now.
Who knows, tomorrow will see
At last I and you are alive. Don’t know what happen to poor Ameen who is eating black forest
Ha ha, he will be there
I badly want ECMWF to fail this time 😛
Sure rain tomorow?
To whom
Vortex SE of sri lanka is still dominating the other vortex.
Looks really interesting.
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-270.72,6.91,3000
OMG looking like depression! I have checked winds in this circulation the winds are 51kmph around the system! This will intensify into low pressure or well marked low pressure tonight!
no ameen…system not yet formed. Shear not favourable for the SE vortex to develop.But if it does keep dominating …then sure shot for TN.
Then hope for the best for TN…..
Clearly shows SE vortex dominating the other vortex 🙂
Sleep is not coming…
dont worry…system will come to us.
Imd gfs expecting deep depression to form on Friday day and coming close to TN on Saturday night and Re curve towards burma by sunday night
It all depends on where the system forms.
DD/cyclone is confirmed but it’s effect on chennai is still a mystery.
But recent pictures show SE vortex developing which is good for us.
so let’s see.
Sri Lanka vortex??
yes…
I think not to go with models because they are changing frequently so best to pray that NTN and chennai should get heavy rains to cover up deficit which is going on from past two years if it not rains severe water scarcity will effect chennai this summer… 😦 so please pray for heavy rains in chennai and NTN to cover up deficit
there will be another system january first week..we have to watch out for that.
Current system? u too losing hope?
nope…I’m still confident.
It’s a suicide mission if it recurves N-NNE.
It should either pound TN and chennai or vanish in open waters..
Yep.
Ok good night sweet dreams 🙂 hope tomorrow morning forecast change extremely positive for chennai……
Haha lets hope..and gn..Merry christmas 🙂
Merry
Merry Christmas to you
Still long way to go..wait till Friday eve update
Yes
Good night sweet dreams 🙂 and merry Christmas
oyi…why u r not sleeping? its not good for ur health 😦
OMG…heavy convection building over BOB
OLR: http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/olr.htm
good morning
Some ts poping up
Convection Building up.
MJO making negative loop, which is not good for the present BOB-convection. BoM-MJO: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/. MJO dynamical forecast:http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml
Know our fundamental Southern oscillation index (SOI): http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/glossary/soi.shtml
Arctic air is set to make a comeback during the final days of 2014: ow.ly/GpzuJ
On a holiday the block seems to have gone into a deep slumber…..!!! owing to the disappointments handed out by systems on after the other? BBC predicts sunny days for the coming week. The system is expected to take a swift north east turn. This is amazing! for no system was allowed to be formed by the factors what ever they may be….now a fairly decent system runs away from the southern coast….will our think tank put on their thinking cap and come up with a plausible explanation….. please enlighten us!
@ganeshan
your question:
will our think tank put on their thinking cap and come up with a plausible explanation….. please enlighten us!
Already given my answer earlier:
(1) -SOI coupled with -QBO becoming deadly for mid-upper level dynamics (500 hpa-200 hpa). This worst combination not allowing any BOB-convection to grow into full pledged system in 2014-NEM.
(2) In addition, -IOD joined in the latest unfavorable value. Especially if IOD turn in -ve values, then ONI index also has to decrease below 0.5 for better cyclogensis at BOB.
Conclusion:
I wonder If the forecasted new year system turns named cyclone and targets TN under the above said -ve parameters.
Note:
Only SOI & QBO will be savior for the forecasted system to turn at least D/DD/minimal cyclone if one of the parameter of SOI/QBO turns at least neutral/started increasing. Slowly slowly I am losing hope on this scenario. But I had still little hope on SOI value to increase from tomorrow onwards.
Thank you Rsrao!…..Though it sounds too technical to me….your response suggests me not to be optimistic about further rains….a conclusion supported by solid science.
But I had still little hope on SOI value to increase from tomorrow onwards.
Is the California drought squashing hopes for holiday pies?
climaterealityproject.org/holiday-food-risk
TN agri forecast…
can.tnau.ac.in/fcast/rain.png
Synoptic Chart
very worst due to decrease in SOI 😦
850hpa upper winds
need elevation in NW-dirction
Good News : 95B formed in bob…Now we can track it..
15 kts, 82.6E, 4.6N …
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=IO952014
500 mb vorticity still struggling.
without any improvement in this vorticity, 95B can not strengthen too much.
500 mb vorticity: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=vor2&zoom=&time=
LOW pressure area formed ah?
are u sleeping or not???
Rao – you shud also sleep properly, worrie abt u
for me 2hrs good sleep between 2 AM-4 AM enough 🙂
low pressure formed ah? Please answer
Wait for IMD update
Need to wait till IMD update. But RAMMB started tracking as 95B
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=IO952014
Change your name to birdman then see how rains pounds NTN and chennai 😛
Only two hours…. Very tensed about this system because if it misses TN the NTN and chennai will have its one of the worst drought in April ever and severe water scarcity will effect chennai
You shud sleep well and study well
No studying now only exams over aukulla studying ah?
Winds are coming in from e and popups at 80km e…chance of mild shwers
5.3 earthquake, 108km SW of Chirovanga, Solomon Islands. Dec 25 10:48 at epicenter (20m ago, depth 10km). j.mp/1JQSjmw
Chances of storm, this weekend
If things go well, the northeast monsoon might just leave a mark over the city before wrapping up this year. Meteorologists expect a low pressure area to develop into a depression over the Bay of Bengal.
The weather system brewing over the bay may bring down the deficit of rainfall for the city this season.
Chennai has received 614.4 mm of rainfall, which is less by 20 per cent than the average for northeast monsoon.
According to the meteorological department, there is a fair possibility for the system to intensify into a cyclonic storm by December 27.
There are two troughs at present — one over the area south of Andaman Sea and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal, and another over equatorial Indian Ocean and adjoining Sri Lanka and southwest Bay of Bengal.
Chennai pins its hope on what could be the final rain spell for the monsoon this year, to overcome the lack of rainfall and tackle the looming water crisis during summer next year.
The four water bodies catering to the city’s drinking water needs have a reserve of less than 30 per cent of their total capacity. Continuous flow of Krishna water from Andhra Pradesh has helped maintain the storage at the same level.
R. Suresh, director of the Aerodrome Meteorological Centre, Meenambakkam, said: “As of now, weather models forecast chances of sporadic rains over Chennai, Puducherry and Tiruchi between December 26 and December 29. We have to wait to see how much more rains materialise, depending on the direction and intensity of the weather system.”
Surplus
Weather bloggers in the city, too, feel this year may end with surplus rainfall for the State. Pradeep John, a weather blogger, said northern parts of the State have a chance of good rains after Christmas.
Chennai has witnessed cyclones during December-end in previous years, the most recent one being cyclone Thane in 2011.
The meteorological department predicts isolated light rainfall in some areas on Thursday.
A weather system brewing over Bay of Bengal may bring down the deficit rainfall
http://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/tp-national/tp-tamilnadu/chances-of-storm-this-weekend/article6723995.ece
Wow PJ .. super ..
@Pradeep John in The Hindu
===========================
“Weather bloggers in the city, too, feel this year may end with surplus rainfall for the State. “Pradeep John, a weather blogger, “said northern parts of the State have a chance of good rains after Christmas.
Chennai has witnessed cyclones during December-end in previous years, the most recent one being cyclone Thane in 2011.
The meteorological department predicts isolated light rainfall in some areas on Thursday.
Its really nice
Current location of LOW will not support the NW movement towards TN….
Why???
it has to re-organize towards S/SC-BOB & will do
It is already south of SL… How can v expect to teach TN. by NW movement
what will happen if the aceh conv gets merge with invest..
Burst into super cyclone
no way for super cyclone 😦
Haha
I dont think so, sir, December systems should not go anywhere except TN.
Its not fundamental point 😦
Not so fundamental, but thats the norm?
I still feel the conditions are not that favorable but hope it improves in the coming days.
if it moves NE..then it will die in open waters in central bob..or as per models if it moves ..then it should attain a cat2 status…so that it can break the cold front over there..& move to bengal coast
The vortex near SL as mentioned as invest 95B..but one more conv near aceh still remains..whether both r going to merge or aceh gets weaken..we have to see in next updates..
looks like vortex near SL will move initially N/NE direction to re-orient into S/SC-BOB. In the mean time weaker vortex near aceh will merge with this SL-vortex.
Animation…
rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/loop.asp?product=4kmirimg&storm_identifier=IO952014&starting_image=2014IO95_4KMIRIMG_201412242030.GIF
I have changed from rainman to birdman, coz jeetu/ameen believe it will rain….anything for chennai rains…:)
Thanks
Rsrao sir what do you think
Current system can make landfall in Tamil nadu??
any system can make landfall anywhere. but intensity and rainfall matters.
What do you think models are showing NE track will we get rains? Or we have to fight with drought situation in summer? In my house also water is coming 2hrs on we badly need rains 😦
lets hope for the best 🙂
alert…expecting increase in SOI values slightly from tomorrow onwards. lets see.
reason:
decrease in MSLP near Darwin than Tahiti
hmm I thought I could see all young faces today in their profile , but like our NEM it is disappointing
Earthnullschool
Sri Lanka invest=59 kmph around the system
Banda aech circulation =58kmph around the system
ameen, time to release you next video commentary? 🙂
Nope
ameenbijili,
In most of the cases, MJO’s phase 3&4 not favorable for a BOB-system to cross at TN.
But it is favorable to stay close to SL/GOM/STN or move towards AP/Orissa.
Phase 2 & 5 are very favorable for a BOB-system to cross at TN that too in December.
Note: This differentiation in MJO-phases would be brought in MJSOI-2G model
will it go it phase 5 anytime soon??
that’s hectic task as MJO (at phase 3) is far way from phase 5.
Time is not sufficient, so it may not go to phase 5 by this new year system.
Oh, when thane formed which phase was MJO and all forecasters told thane will go NE direction but it landed in Tamil nadu….
Thane formed in MJO-phase 5
Oh
this time also..all models predicting the same NE..why can’t this system cross us..anything can happen..as Nature has its own way…
Yes absolutely right
December Systems in BOB
2000 Srilankan cyclone dec 23-28
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000_Sri_Lanka_cyclone
Cyclone Thane
dec 25-31
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Thane
System has been formed and rains are sure for the coastal tamilnadu.
System may move NNW and then NW track will help to LF near C.TN.
I guess it’s all over for us 😦
Even NAVGEM expects it to move N/NNE after coming close to TN.
Only lone warrior is NCMRWF which still expects TN landall.
Let’s all hope for the best.
and wish all bloggers a merry christmas 🙂
In this year we had unexpected rainfall from the system is only the GOM low which has started our NEM.
The other system have disappointed our expectation through motivating the bloggers.
It looks radar has some rain sparkles, may be the effects of the two systems clashing one other 🙂
ameen,
Thane-2011’s MJO phase 5 diagram.
Merry Christmas And A Good mrng any good news???
Sri lankan vortex deepening.
Full disc….
NCMRWF expects heavy rainfall for Coastal TN along with chennai.
low pressure near srilanka is organnsing .Intense thunderstorms are forming over the centre for past few hours but it lacks
shape .System is under moderate easterly shear as centre convection is tilting westward.System under low-moderate shear which is marginally favorable one.It is moving eastward towards marginally favorable conditions.
The other disturbance persists in south east bay.
it could organize into a depression with any slight improvment in conditons.
It is moving eastward?
yes it was moving eastward yesterday.currently it is stationary .
it is expected to move eastward
East to West going to Arabian sea or west to east coming to South Central bay of bengal????
towards bay of bengal
What do u expect in terms of Movement…
i think both the vortex is influencing the movement.After some time there will be one vortex , going by current trend it will be the srilankan vortex . its expected to move eastward and develop into a cyclone.I still believe we have a chance but models are saying different story.we have to wait and see.
steering pattern favouring westward movement of srilankan low but it is moving eastward due to the influence of other system in south east bay.Both of them influencing each other.
Merry Christmas to all.
Monsoon displaces over 62,000 people in Malaysia
Torrential downpours and high tides have created chaos in Malaysia’s northeastern states of Kelantan, Terengganu, and Pahang, displacing around 62,000 people.
http://www.presstv.ir/detail/2014/12/24/391706/monsoon-displaces-62k-in-malaysia/
I think my comment is deleted. Is the rule getting implemented.
95 b.
4.6 L-82.6 longtitude-
Good moring sir
what your mind rain or cyclone come to TN coast or Not
S.tn get god rains for current system,cyclone not guarantee for tn but can not ruled out intial stage wait for tomorrow we will get answer..
We are biting our nails on the next Category system in BOB…we had also discussed various category storms like Hudhud,Phailin etc…
Let us pause for a minute to remember The “Father of Categorisation of Systems”.Dr.Simpson,who was responsible for the Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Scale passed away on 19th Dec 2014.He was 102!
RIP,Dr.Simpson.
Bob Simpson (seated) with (from left to right) NHC hurricane specialists Dan Brown, John Cangialosi, Eric Blake, Todd Kimberlain; hurricane scientist Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State; and former NHC director Max Mayfield. Photo taken by Bill Thorson in April 2012 at the 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology of the American Meteorological Society in Ponte Verda Beach, Florida.
Read more at http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2882
Ohh, sorry to hear that..RIP Dr. Simpson.
finally what conclusion?
will it come to chennai ?
By tomorrow evening we will get clear picture
that it will not rain ah???
http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/12/29/0900Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-280.61,8.96,2048
see this moving NNW AND moving east to reach Chennai..if it is also not coming we will get the outer bands..system is for us ..landfall?
Shear tendency looks good in bay
its marginally favorable only.Low shear value near the srilankan low and south east bay
A reminder to all, as we all know from today onwards to comment in KeaWeather registration is mandatory. Please register by mailing the following info to Keaweather@gmail.com or else your comment will get deleted.
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I sent you my photo yesterday did you get it?
Mobile number has added in list today 😛
yes, should have done it earlier. But forgot. Henceforth for ne registrations we require it
So for us no need?
kea, why you need the photo and mobile number?
dear KEA; I feel u can safely announce Dec rain contest winners today itself, nothing dramatic coming days for sure. No false hopes.
Kea max members are mailed to you.but how can they confrimed to reach you sent or not sent??do one please give reply to all who was sent details..
Kea,my no do u need mobile number or house telephone number
Biting cold seen entering Gujarat as storm watch in Bay continues
http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/industry-and-economy/agri-biz/biting-cold-seen-entering-gujarat-as-storm-watch-in-bay-continues/article6719793.ece
IMD will be upgrading lankan low into to a WML
http://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/tp-national/tp-tamilnadu/chances-of-storm-this-weekend/article6723995.ece
Pradeep John gets a mention..
IMD would be upgrading lankan low into to a WML .its a well defined low pressure
Why my comments are not accepted
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navm.html?model=gfs®ion=ind&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2014122500&fh=72&xpos=228&ypos=204
Gfs….
It would be interesting to see the rainfall amount in srilanka.This year the island was affected by too many systems.
They compensated for last year
last year where they deficit?
Good morning all and happy XMAS. Feel NEM rains are over for good. Nothing dramatic coming days.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navm.html?model=gfs®ion=ind&pkg=z850_vort&runtime=2014122500&fh=72&xpos=0&ypos=0
http://www.weatheronline.in/weather/satellite/India.htm
irregular deep convection over the centre
Blog is filtered I guess
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navm.html?model=gfs®ion=ind&pkg=z850_vort&runtime=2014122500&fh=90&xpos=0&ypos=0
Omg gfs taking close to srilanka…?
Novak is a school going kid?
yeah, fourth standard kid
Some shocking news are get to known by Kea’s brilliant move
yes. i never thought he will be this young
and vinodh is back to his fb login
i normally use this login ,sometimes i go with the other one.
Yes it is better “Trade Mark” for Vinodh
Fb?
Yep, a lot younger than susa
He is youngest blogger. maybe we should call his parents and get their permission
yes
Yes novak/Susa/ameen
I also see a young Jeetu in the pro pic..
But you are a 12 year old kid
No yet to be born
He will take this also
Then who is Shiva sir?
Ask novak itself
By Tomorrow we should conclude this nem 2014 officially
No no. not until Jan end
no
I mean for 2014
we have a cyclone, anything can happen
Where is cyclone?
i mean it will develop into a cyclone soon.Currently it is a well marked low pressure near lanka
What if it doesn’t develop?
if it doesnt develop then it may affect TN as a weak disturbance.
oh your views kindle the lost confidence of the Bloggers
Somehere near phillipines maybe! Our people may forecast it to move towards us, whole of Dec it has been happening.
By tomorrow night we get to know clear picture
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navm.html?model=gfs®ion=ind&pkg=z850_vort&runtime=2014122500&fh=120&xpos=0&ypos=0
New year system changing direction from here close to tn..
sat image update
why every day people posts fluctuating messages. nothing is sure once rainfall occurs. any thing can happen. no question of any upsets over any system. still there are plenty of chances.
ss
dear maisuh, time to move on this NEM, nothing left for now.
Yes nothing more than a few drizzles
I appreciate and I support this time
Vinod is my partner now on, he is just 125 metres from my home
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navm.html?model=gfs®ion=ind&pkg=z850_vort&runtime=2014122500&fh=96&xpos=210&ypos=580
Almost hitting..
Intense rain bands in chennai
In this run chennai will get rains.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navm.html?model=gfs®ion=ind&pkg=z850_vort&runtime=2014122500&fh=138&xpos=0&ypos=70
why messages are not updated??
ss
Why anything missing?
Hi did you get my photo?
First you upload it
I don’t know how to upload… I have sent to kea sir in e mail
Fine
yes
Yes messages are not updated only if refreshed new messages are shown
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navm.html?model=gfs®ion=ind&pkg=z850_vort&runtime=2014122500&fh=138&xpos=0&ypos=70
System looking wide spread —–
Whenever i open it in new tab.It shows US region instead of our region. So its better to post screenshot.
Oh really sorryfor that i will do..
U can select the region Indian ocean and select the play option. U can see the complete animation.
Yes. I know that. But I am not able to coordinate his perspective with the animation.
I mean “Not able”
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navm.html?model=gfs®ion=ind&pkg=z850_vort&runtime=2014122500&fh=162&xpos=0&ypos=70
Gfs stick n/e…
KEA.
Sorry. i have not notice properly. it is working fine. thanks
ss
IMD gfs prediction
the developing system has to move little east to target north tamil nadu. otherwise it would only benefit kanyakumari & Ramnad & Tirunelveli district again.
ss
New year or near sl system??
SL one
Srilanka system which looks like stronger. a clear picture would emerge in another 24 hours.
ss
4.4 north & 82.7 is not at all a right location to bring rains to chennai. it is too much south west and it has to move a bit east and then north west. otherwise this could as well be an useless one beyond cuddalore pocket-north.
ss
Varying weather evolving for north and south to mark year-end
http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/industry-and-economy/agri-biz/varying-weather-evolving-for-north-and-south-to-mark-yearend/article6712946.ece
GFS changed expecting rains for us again
2 pics, Clicked today early morning http://s8.postimg.org/dusw70ut1/P_20141225_075705_BF.jpg
coco rg placed well..
I guess its a Marina Beach. We can see Coconut husk in there only..
no..bessy
Bessy?Come on..you should have called me?
came with frnz..anyhow i thought of calling u then realized u might hav scheduled already for daily fitness
We need you to be fit as you approach our coast!Hope your friends include Low shear and NW Steering winds?
reports from my buoys stg,alaht says sst is too cool near tn coast.. SO i m not going to intensify after 12N
Hmm..ok,then start cultivating 850hpa steering winds and ask them to guide you towards Pondy so that your northern bands can give us the much needed respite
If v go by the models, s.bay lanka vortex is temporary. S.east bay vortex will b developing in next 36hrs
Seems like you are struggling
i m fixed for tn.. heard very cool waters near tn coast
Disturbance near SL has become unexpectedly strong. As a result GFS is expecting this to dominate and come closer to TN which could give us some rains. Let’s see what next ECMWF run has
oh is it? i din c updated run
Yep, check the above image, they r bringing it THAT close to Lanka
The one close to SL will head towards GOM I feel.
ECMWF was actually expecting this intensification 1 day back
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/archive/data/stettner/Hagupit/Hag-2-ZMVis.html
Moderate to high shear in Western BOB.Models are expecting it to come down
How Low can the fight go?
Two Lows fighting it out.TMD shows both at 1010!
lankan vortex named as 95B.. http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/products/storms/2014IO95/4KMSRBDC/2014IO95_4KMSRBDC_201412250430.jpg
The Tracking starts!
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=IO952014