1,112 thoughts on “Final system hopes diminishing

    • OMG looking like depression! I have checked winds in this circulation the winds are 51kmph around the system! This will intensify into low pressure or well marked low pressure tonight!

  1. On a holiday the block seems to have gone into a deep slumber…..!!! owing to the disappointments handed out by systems on after the other? BBC predicts sunny days for the coming week. The system is expected to take a swift north east turn. This is amazing! for no system was allowed to be formed by the factors what ever they may be….now a fairly decent system runs away from the southern coast….will our think tank put on their thinking cap and come up with a plausible explanation….. please enlighten us!

    • @ganeshan

      your question:
      will our think tank put on their thinking cap and come up with a plausible explanation….. please enlighten us!

      Already given my answer earlier:
      (1) -SOI coupled with -QBO becoming deadly for mid-upper level dynamics (500 hpa-200 hpa). This worst combination not allowing any BOB-convection to grow into full pledged system in 2014-NEM.

      (2) In addition, -IOD joined in the latest unfavorable value. Especially if IOD turn in -ve values, then ONI index also has to decrease below 0.5 for better cyclogensis at BOB.

      Conclusion:
      I wonder If the forecasted new year system turns named cyclone and targets TN under the above said -ve parameters.

      Note:
      Only SOI & QBO will be savior for the forecasted system to turn at least D/DD/minimal cyclone if one of the parameter of SOI/QBO turns at least neutral/started increasing. Slowly slowly I am losing hope on this scenario. But I had still little hope on SOI value to increase from tomorrow onwards.

      • Thank you Rsrao!…..Though it sounds too technical to me….your response suggests me not to be optimistic about further rains….a conclusion supported by solid science.

  2. Chances of storm, this weekend

    If things go well, the northeast monsoon might just leave a mark over the city before wrapping up this year. Meteorologists expect a low pressure area to develop into a depression over the Bay of Bengal.

    The weather system brewing over the bay may bring down the deficit of rainfall for the city this season.

    Chennai has received 614.4 mm of rainfall, which is less by 20 per cent than the average for northeast monsoon.

    According to the meteorological department, there is a fair possibility for the system to intensify into a cyclonic storm by December 27.

    There are two troughs at present β€” one over the area south of Andaman Sea and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal, and another over equatorial Indian Ocean and adjoining Sri Lanka and southwest Bay of Bengal.

    Chennai pins its hope on what could be the final rain spell for the monsoon this year, to overcome the lack of rainfall and tackle the looming water crisis during summer next year.

    The four water bodies catering to the city’s drinking water needs have a reserve of less than 30 per cent of their total capacity. Continuous flow of Krishna water from Andhra Pradesh has helped maintain the storage at the same level.

    R. Suresh, director of the Aerodrome Meteorological Centre, Meenambakkam, said: β€œAs of now, weather models forecast chances of sporadic rains over Chennai, Puducherry and Tiruchi between December 26 and December 29. We have to wait to see how much more rains materialise, depending on the direction and intensity of the weather system.”

    Surplus

    Weather bloggers in the city, too, feel this year may end with surplus rainfall for the State. Pradeep John, a weather blogger, said northern parts of the State have a chance of good rains after Christmas.

    Chennai has witnessed cyclones during December-end in previous years, the most recent one being cyclone Thane in 2011.

    The meteorological department predicts isolated light rainfall in some areas on Thursday.

    A weather system brewing over Bay of Bengal may bring down the deficit rainfall

    http://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/tp-national/tp-tamilnadu/chances-of-storm-this-weekend/article6723995.ece

  3. @Pradeep John in The Hindu
    ===========================

    “Weather bloggers in the city, too, feel this year may end with surplus rainfall for the State. “Pradeep John, a weather blogger, “said northern parts of the State have a chance of good rains after Christmas.

    Chennai has witnessed cyclones during December-end in previous years, the most recent one being cyclone Thane in 2011.

    The meteorological department predicts isolated light rainfall in some areas on Thursday.

  4. The vortex near SL as mentioned as invest 95B..but one more conv near aceh still remains..whether both r going to merge or aceh gets weaken..we have to see in next updates..

    • looks like vortex near SL will move initially N/NE direction to re-orient into S/SC-BOB. In the mean time weaker vortex near aceh will merge with this SL-vortex.

  5. alert…expecting increase in SOI values slightly from tomorrow onwards. lets see.

    reason:
    decrease in MSLP near Darwin than Tahiti

  6. Earthnullschool
    Sri Lanka invest=59 kmph around the system
    Banda aech circulation =58kmph around the system

  7. ameenbijili,
    In most of the cases, MJO’s phase 3&4 not favorable for a BOB-system to cross at TN.
    But it is favorable to stay close to SL/GOM/STN or move towards AP/Orissa.

    Phase 2 & 5 are very favorable for a BOB-system to cross at TN that too in December.

    Note: This differentiation in MJO-phases would be brought in MJSOI-2G model

  8. System has been formed and rains are sure for the coastal tamilnadu.
    System may move NNW and then NW track will help to LF near C.TN.

  9. I guess it’s all over for us 😦
    Even NAVGEM expects it to move N/NNE after coming close to TN.
    Only lone warrior is NCMRWF which still expects TN landall.
    Let’s all hope for the best.
    and wish all bloggers a merry christmas πŸ™‚

  10. In this year we had unexpected rainfall from the system is only the GOM low which has started our NEM.
    The other system have disappointed our expectation through motivating the bloggers.

  11. low pressure near srilanka is organnsing .Intense thunderstorms are forming over the centre for past few hours but it lacks
    shape .System is under moderate easterly shear as centre convection is tilting westward.System under low-moderate shear which is marginally favorable one.It is moving eastward towards marginally favorable conditions.
    The other disturbance persists in south east bay.

  12. We are biting our nails on the next Category system in BOB…we had also discussed various category storms like Hudhud,Phailin etc…
    Let us pause for a minute to remember The “Father of Categorisation of Systems”.Dr.Simpson,who was responsible for the Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Scale passed away on 19th Dec 2014.He was 102!
    RIP,Dr.Simpson.

  13. A reminder to all, as we all know from today onwards to comment in KeaWeather registration is mandatory. Please register by mailing the following info to Keaweather@gmail.com or else your comment will get deleted.
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  14. It would be interesting to see the rainfall amount in srilanka.This year the island was affected by too many systems.

  15. why every day people posts fluctuating messages. nothing is sure once rainfall occurs. any thing can happen. no question of any upsets over any system. still there are plenty of chances.
    ss

  16. the developing system has to move little east to target north tamil nadu. otherwise it would only benefit kanyakumari & Ramnad & Tirunelveli district again.

    ss

  17. 4.4 north & 82.7 is not at all a right location to bring rains to chennai. it is too much south west and it has to move a bit east and then north west. otherwise this could as well be an useless one beyond cuddalore pocket-north.

    ss

  18. Disturbance near SL has become unexpectedly strong. As a result GFS is expecting this to dominate and come closer to TN which could give us some rains. Let’s see what next ECMWF run has

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