722 thoughts on “Rains might miss yet again

  1. Oh god why gfs has reducing rainfall prediction for chennai the newyear system didn’t devolope in to a minimal cyclone???:-(

  2. Wat a bad topic today i’m very exiting to enter the blog today mrng but the topic was totally change my mind in to no rainsfor chennai and nem is over for tamilnadu

  3. But I believe my boss she is only predicting every time this time she give fulfil rainy system for the new year hope it guys still 6days to go condition was unfavourable for the new year system:-(:-(:-(:-(:-S:@

  4. Good news? New year system’s down-graded intensity (might be D/DD/minimal cyclone) can be advantageous for TN?

    Ans:
    It looks advantageous

    MJO making negative loop & SOI keep on falling make the new year system to be weaker one. This weaker system will stay long time near coastal TN.

    This scenario can give some good rainfall for whole coastal TN & SAP

    MJO: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml
    SOI: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/soi.txt

  5. Sunny start to the day and the system still not yet formed over SW bay.
    Rain chances are good as the moisture is high over north tamilnadu from 27th can expect some moderate to heavy spell.

  6. Ha ha did ODM post a farewell message yesterday? So he is not ready to reveal the 5 year old mystery. We don’t even know if he is a school going kid or a retired person.

    It’s better such people stop blogging. We don’t want any mysterious person here.

  7. Reminder for all bloggers to send their information.

    From midnight onwards bloggers who have sent the following information will be allowed to contribute in this blog.

    User ID
    Name
    Age
    Location
    Photo

    We have already received mail from 90% of bloggers. I request the balance to send the information to keaweather@gmail.com

  8. dec 25 2011 thane cirulation formed
    and intially n/wExpected but it had crossed west direction?hopely new year not this year system also behave like thane…

  9. On 25-Dec, Christmas day, this circulation is expected
    to become strong over South bay above 5th parallel..
    http://ow.ly/i/83b92
    GFS expects this system to become Depression /
    Cyclone and drift N-W upto central Tamilnadu coast
    on 28/29-Dec.. http://ow.ly/i/83bjd
    A mid,upper-level W.D trough travelling East over
    North India can make the upcoming cyclone to drift N-
    E on 29-Dec http://ow.ly/i/83btu
    NAVGEM suggests, that circulation will pop along S-E
    srilanka coast, move N-W and cross central Tamilnadu
    on 27-Dec http://ow.ly/i/83bEX
    Remember In 2011, Cyclone Thane also started as a
    circulation on 25-Dec and tracked N-W then W to hit
    central TN… http://ow.ly/Gmx7e

  10. Latest run shows that the LPA formation is delayed..NW of Aceh…therein lies the tale…its a race against time.Lets see

  11. Outflow from s.indian ocean system is wide n big..tis has disturbed the flow of upper winds nearby my area n in turn increased a wind shear. Now it’s around 20knts.so v r waiting to get tat relaxed

    • OMG pressure has dropped to 995 hpa! When it is about 350km SE of Chennai! This can produce heavy rains in outer bands also!

  12. It is likely that many of ours including myself words are slowly coming true. (NEM ended for Chennai). I am saying this with full of sorrow and not with joy. Many of us expected repeat of 2005.

    • 2005 is a very rare phenomenon which happens once in blue moon. Don’t have it has bench mark for NEM rains. Our NEM average is 800mm and we have got around 600-650mm, our deficit is 150-200mm which we are hoping for from this system although not guaranteed.

  13. I think today is going to be the last day of blogging for me in this wonderful blog based on conditions set from midnight. Will come back if at all rules are relaxed again.

  14. details:
    First of all my sincere appreciations for KEA site owner who has been doing an excellent job in analyzing the weather across india, particularly to TN

    I have been a member in this blog from 2008/2009, if i remember correct. Certainly it is interesting to interact on daily events about weather. My suggestion could be : only weather related alone can figure and all members can avoid all other messages. KEA blog members can meet at least once in 6 months before the commencement of monsoons. my details are as follows :

    User id maisuh, Name S Suresh, ( GM’s cadre in a big company)
    age 50 years. location Proper chennai. – I am writing articles to Indian express group on Astro-meterology.

    I do not have photo and i hope you can exempt for me.

    Thanks. if you need any other details, please inform me.

    Suresh.S

  15. “Ha ha did ODM post a farewell message yesterday? So he is not ready to reveal the 5 year old mystery. We don’t even know if he is a school going kid or a retired person.

    It’s better such people stop blogging. We don’t want any mysterious person here”

    Arrogance at its peak heh! u did not hav the gut to say this 5 years ago when there were hardly 10 users in d blog regularly remember, its a shame u ve changed alot

  16. Hi KEA,
    There is one thing i would like to say. It would be nice if you send any acknowledgement mail to all those who have sent their details so that we will know that our details have reached you.

  17. NAVGEM still expects a C.TN landfall.
    This systems movement totally depends on where the system forms….
    lets see.

  18. After seeing the lastest update for new year system

    “வடக்குபட்டி ராமசாமிக்‌கு ஊஊஊஊ”

  19. intense thunderstorm seen to the south and south east of srilanka associated with the circulation .There is also another circulation to the south east bay.shear Conditions are not favorable for srilankan circulation to organise.Models are expecting the other circulation in south east bay to become more dominant and develop into a cyclone.

  20. My model… 😛 still expecting it to re curve after coming close to NTN and chennai but it will pound us!

  21. guys stop the negative comments…
    first the system forms …don’t create a bad news in this blog..at least we will enjoy the movement of this system..
    but i will still that the system is for us..

  22. Easterlies continue to affect E,S-E Srilanka … a mini circulation is seen over S-S-E Bay just above 5N.

    On 25-Dec, Christmas day, this circulation is expected to become strong over South bay above 5th parallel.. http://ow.ly/i/83b92
    GFS expects this system to become Depression / Cyclone and drift N-W upto central Tamilnadu coast on 28/29-Dec.. http://ow.ly/i/83bjd

    A mid,upper-level W.D trough travelling East over North India can make the upcoming cyclone to drift N-E on 29-Dec http://ow.ly/i/83btu

    NAVGEM suggests, that circulation will pop along S-E srilanka coast, move N-W and cross central Tamilnadu on 27-Dec http://ow.ly/i/83bEX

    Remember In 2011, Cyclone Thane also started as a circulation on 25-Dec and tracked N-W then W to hit central TN… http://ow.ly/Gmx7e

    indianweatherman.blogspot.in

  23. I still remember CFS was spot on fr this boxing day system..a month back…
    and it did expect the system to move N/NE after coming close to TN coast.
    Let’s see.
    But I’m happy they were bang on target for this boxing day system 🙂

  24. Cyclone confirmed.
    But will it strike us or atleast give us much needed rains before travelling NE?
    mystery continues..

  25. Rain/thundershower would occur at many places over Coastal Andhra Pradesh & coastal Odisha and at a few
    places over coastal Tamilnadu from 28th onwards

  26. navgem is expecting cyclone to hit TN on 28 dec itself but gfs expecting cyclone to form and come close to sri lanka only on 28 dec so again time is important as earlier as possible the system want to reach us otherwise it want to be a depression

  27. Warm waters over bay supports the system to develop, but cold waters in central bay doesn’t allow the system to move further to north east ..as per ecmwf if it moves also..it will gradually weaken & moves back as Madi done.. So,No chance for this system to go burma or bengal coast & even to North Ap coast.. huge drop in temperatures are occuring in North india ..this will allow the models to change their forecast..

  28. Meteogram expects a circulation SSE of sri lanka.
    Even NAVGEM expected this and they took it to C.TN.
    Place of System formation is crucial here.

  29. as said earlier sunday late night or mon early morning stn and Chennai will get showers..wait for Friday eve update till then..

  30. If the system recurves in NE direction then the system may even dissipate in sea itself due to cool waters around central BOB

  31. Rainy Christmas due to cold front, northeast monsoon

    Many parts of the country including the capital region will
    experience light to moderate rains this Christmas, the state weather agency said. In a 5 a.m. advisory on Wednesday, the Philippine Atmospheric,
    Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) noted the trailing end of a cold front affecting Southern Luzon.
    The northeast monsoon, meanwhile, will continue to affect Northern and Central Luzon in the next 24 hours.

    http://www.philstar.com/nation/2014/12/24/1406205/rainy-christmas-due-cold-front-northeast-monsoon

  32. imd mid day report:
    Weather Outlook for subsequent 4 days
    from 27th December 2014 to 31st December 2014

    A low pressure area would develop over southeast Bay of Bengal.

    Rain/thundershowers would occur at many places over Andaman & Nicobar Islands.

    Rain/thundershowers would occur at isolated places over extreme south peninsular India and Lakshadweep on 27th.

    Rain/thundershower would occur at many places over Coastal Andhra Pradesh & coastal Odisha and at a few places over
    coastal Tamilnadu from 28th onwards.

    Weather would be dry over rest of the country

  33. VWS is favorable near TN which will support the system to move near TN coast..from central AP..vws is higher which will disturb the circulation..

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