1,038 thoughts on “Deficit likely to decrease as rains possible during weekend

  1. In the US, a white snowy christmas is a much cherished wish. White christmas is a routine in latitudes which are about 100 miles north of New York. For the rest it is often a case of a near miss. Wishing PJ and the kea bloggers a rainy christmas and new years eve. We might send 2014 with a downpour

  2. Very wide stretch of waters with lot of buoys around.. lot of research vessel, fishing boats around. I don’t think they have warned yet.

  3. I have a Christmas gift for all.

    As we have noticed there are a lots of new names. Many are new names for same people. KeaWeather cannot continue like this. We as bloggers need to know who who is. We cannot continue with names like guest, guest 11, ODM, final system etc. All need to reveal their identity. I request all bloggers to send email to keaweather@gmail.com with the following information
    Disqus ID:
    Any other id’s used previously:

    Without the above information no one will be allowed to post comments from 25th December onwards. I am sorry I am being harsh here, I would rather close this blog than continue like this.

  4. kea i have sent my details to your email id, my personal request to you pl. never shut this
    wonderful, informative, interactive blog for what ever reason.

  5. Interesting!! Now v told s.bay vortices to come near 87E, and 8N ,88E may b the point of genesis , s.ind ocean disturbance formation area is not clear

  6. X Mas and New Year Gift..
    Meanwhile, the Met has set up a watch for a low-pressure area/depression developing off the Sri Lankan coast by the weekend. It suspects that the system may move north and run in towards south-east Tamil Nadu coast across Palk Strait eyeing the coast from Ramanathapuram to Nagapattinam.

    Rain for south

    The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts too maintains this forecast but takes the system across the Bay of Bengal towards Kolkata. In doing so, the system will careen along the Tamil Nadu coast setting off bringing to bear a surprisingly wet and stormy end to the year for the State.

    India Met has said that rain and thundershowers could linger over parts of south peninsula until Saturday and increase thereafter.

    Extended forecasts indicate that another system might take shape over the South China Sea bang with the dawn of the New Year and set a track to enter the Bay of Bengal.


  7. Note the point Your Honour—

    The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts too maintains this forecast but takes the system across the Bay of Bengal towards Kolkata. In doing so, the system will careen along the Tamil Nadu coast setting off bringing to bear a surprisingly wet and stormy end to the year for the State.

    Extended forecasts indicate that another system might take shape over the South China Sea bang with the dawn of the New Year and set a track to enter the Bay of Bengal.

    Wet and stormy end to the year for the state..Sounds so good..

  8. @Prabha Karan,

    There is no arrogance in asking bloggers to reveal their identity. Those who don’t want to reveal their identity can happily stay away from posting in the blog and be silent spectators.

  9. stop this fight for sometime. i think we need to go by what kea says and thats it , let me give you something new to think,Any body interested in playing cricket match with cricket ball T20 sunday only . Please do let me know

  10. it will intensifie in to d/d near ap coast and then it will weaken same at n.ap coast then it will recurve to n/e direction

  11. Near El Niño conditions persist in tropical Pacific Ocean

    The tropical Pacific Ocean continues to border on El Niño thresholds, with rainfall patterns around the Pacific Ocean basin, and at times further afield, displaying El Niño-like patterns over recent months.

    Indicators remain broadly consistent with borderline El Niño conditions. Sea surface temperatures have exceeded thresholds for a number of weeks, and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has generally been negative for the past few months. Trade winds have been near-average along the equator, but weaker in the broader tropical belt. Together, these indicate some weak coupling of the atmosphere and ocean may be occurring.

    Climate models expect little change over the next two to three months, with most predicting a persistence of the current warm sea surface temperatures. If current conditions do persist or strengthen into next year, 2014–15 is likely to be considered a weak El Niño. As a result, the Bureau’s ENSO Tracker status remains at ALERT.

    Regardless of El Niño status, El Niño-like impacts are likely to continue, as shown by recent seasonal outlooks. For Australia, this means drier and warmer than average weather is likely in many areas.

  12. Madden–Julian Oscillation and the north Australian Monsoon
    The north Australian Monsoon usually begins over the far north coast of Australia in late December, then typically progresses inland over the tropical north. History shows a large amount of variability in monsoon onset dates at Darwin, ranging from late November to late January. El Niño tends to delay the onset date; however, the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) provides the greatest source of variability to Australia’s monsoon.

    Over the past week an active MJO pulse has developed and strengthened over the tropical eastern Indian Ocean, enhancing tropical activity in the region. Much of South-East Asia—including Singapore, Sumatra and western Java—has also experienced active tropical weather and heavy rainfall over the past week. When the MJO is located over the Indian Ocean at this time of year it increases the risk of tropical cyclone development in the southern tropical Indian Ocean, including the waters to the west of Australia.

    Most climate models indicate that the MJO will move slowly eastward along the equator over the coming fortnight, maintaining its strength. Most models put the MJO in a location favourable to monsoon onset over northern Australia during the last days of December and first week of January. The risk of tropical cyclone development will be elevated in the waters to the north of Australia if the MJO remains active as it moves through Australian longitudes.

  13. Near-El Niño conditions persist
    The tropical Pacific Ocean continues to border on El Niño. Sea surface temperatures have marginally exceeded El Niño thresholds for several weeks. The latest NINO3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly is +0.9 °C (a sustained temperature anomaly of greater than +0.8 is one indicator of El Niño). The latest 30-day SOI value (to 21 December) is –6.1. The SOI has been negative since June with sustained periods below −7 (sustained SOI below –7 can indicate an El Niño event is underway).

  14. Hi Kea and all, i am aged 39, residing in Srinivasa Nagar Madipakkam, Into IT, doing my own business. Will upload photo soon as profile picture. Just coming here since Interested in nature and weather.

  15. Nowadays Kea is confusing with his comments. Freedom of speech is getting curtailed with lot of rules and regulations. Sorry to say this.

      • Tightly knit or widely split, enjoyment in blogging is getting reduced with lot of rules and regulations.

      • Just don’t think of either way, by doing so, all bloggers gets to know each other, and everyone like that, don’t you? You wanna still be hidden

      • some people may be not be comfortable with revealing their details in a open forum, privacy should be respected, i’m not against collecting details by kea,

      • I mean like insurance and public sector companys hold 51%stake like that kea had planned, at the other hand many don’t like to chat just like that vs strangers too, even school kids are revealing , so I don’t find anything wrong, its purely my view

      • it is up to the people, whether they want to talk to known persons only, still now we have replied to unknown people also

      • But he is trying to restrict somehow, remember he can even said it is causing problems that, he might close the blog itself,so you take that?

      • friend, i think passionate about weather/ rain only has made him to open a forum like this, and since we also passionate about the same here we are, to know about one’s identity who are all part of that, is the absolute right of a owner of a forum/ blog, i don’t deny that. but remember in any social forum they say what are ever details collected are privy.

      • in the mean time i have sent my details including photo to kea morning itself,i am just against using my photo in a open forum, that way some other people may have reservations in telling some other details in a open forum, that’s all

      • Revealing to owner or world. We are passionate towards weather. Thats it. I dont find any issues in this.

  16. Asking identity of users may be the right for website owner.i don’t want to argue on this.
    ”I have a Christmas gift for all”. The meaning of this sentence shows little bit arrogance of kea.

    • we cannot rely on models…
      they said we will get rain last wek of last month….but nothing…
      like that if they are saying it is for Burma and then its for us…

  17. Guys…hope u all are going to get a surprise as per my yday’s Spoiler Alert…infact earlier than expected… 😀

  18. Next 4 day shear looks like absolute plum for me to intensify.. some areas likely to b seen with 5 n below 5knts.more or less thane like shear conditions..

  19. The name Final system shows that bloggers passion twrds cyclone/system…Can you name a baby ‘final system’? No you cant…that is the beauty of virtual world…
    same with the name ODM…dont ask for explnation…i dont have one…:)

  20. Guys iam very happy and very emotional that my holidays have started and first time in my life iam gonna track cyclone! Coming very close to NTN and going to burma but I am happy that we will get heavy rains ans bussss bussss Wowooii Wowooi winds!
    See this image

  21. @originaldashman:disqus – you are the oldest KEA blogger whose identity is still unknown. So may I ask how you will fit in the ‘Open’ era of KEA blog ?

    • what I am saying is people will know who you are. You are the Phantom Ghost Who Walks Clark Kent /Superman Spiderman/Peter Parker. Are your ready to come out in the open ?

  22. I think, this blog is going to entertain only tightly knit friends and bloggers. I think no room for people who dont want reveal their identity unnecessarily. At least I hope KEA wont block outsiders to just view what is going on.

      • Good question. But considering the fact so many bloggers have met me in real it is not really interesting to answer who I am.

      • see friend, I have not changed my blog ID since I joined this blog. If that is the case, what is the problem. It is a problem only when known and senior bloggers suddenly change their IDS without prior info which only creates doubt in the minds of fellow bloggers. That should have been avoided seriously.

      • But there was no rule before of changing IDs. Besides in the internet most people prefer to stay anonymous.

      • How do you know ? I have been here since Oct 2010. So far KEA has not asked me to quit coming here. He may do it now but yet to happen so far.

      • that’s an old misconception. There was one Ashwinds who was also from Besant Nagar who did not like Chennai weather. I was ashwin12 or some such id on the wordpress site. I think the ashwinds who was your good friend relocated to Hyderabad or is silently watching now. Even Gopal had the same doubt. All these issues were resolved when we met earlier this year.It could be some people still associate with him but his style of writing and mine are totally different.

  23. @sunspot2014:disqus – if a new rule is brought in we are glad to follow. but you cant blame people for not following a rule that does not exist. Internet etiquette does not punish anonymity or change of id.

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