881 thoughts on “Hope remains

  1. GFS expecting a 40kt system will skirting the coast from nagapattnim till NAP heavy to very heavy rains will start in these places including chennai! And squally winds possible!

  2. Lambasingi shivers as mercury dips to zero

    The much awaited day of the season arrived in Lambasingi. Temperature dropped to Zero degree Celsius on Sunday.

    For the past few years, Lambasingi in Chintapalli mandal of Visakha Agency areas, about 110 km from here, started attracting tourists during winter thanks to the zero degree temperature recorded for a few days during most of the winters.

    Temperature was steadily dropping for the last couple of years at Lambasingi, located more than 3,000 feet above sea level, and and all over Visakha Agency. From seven degrees Celsius minimum temperature on Friday at Lambasingi, it dropped to two degrees on Saturday and zero degree on Sunday. Minimum temperature at Chintapalliwas 10 degrees on Friday, six degrees on Saturday and three on Sunday.

    http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/andhra-pradesh/lambasingi-shivers-as-mercury-dips-to-zero/article6713319.ece

  3. Half-a-century ago, Dhanushkodi was a flourishing town till a cyclone destroyed it on the night ofDecember 22, 1964. The storm wiped out almost all traces of human settlements. From then on, it resembles a ghost town.

    A pillar stands in memory of those who had lost their lives. And, as if it was a witness, the pillar tells the tragic story of how 115 people on a passenger train and more than 200 in the coastal town were swallowed by monstrous waves.

    http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/tamil-nadu/remnants-of-a-ghost-town/article6710686.ece

    • Novakji,

      Thanks for reminding the horror of Dhanuskodi cyclone.

      I read the article

      β€œThere was no advance information from the Meteorological Department. Otherwise, we would have evacuated people from Dhanushkodi. The passenger train would not have been operated.

      This really hurts us and makes a clear point that we are gifted people with latest technologies and kea blog to alert the people.

      But still people were careless enough to lose their lives.

    • GFS expecting a 40kt system will skirting the coast from nagapattnim till NAP heavy to very heavy rains will start in these places including chennai! And squally winds possible!

  4. hudhud cyclone track explanation by MJSOI model:
    Hudhud-2014 (October 6-12) has strengthened to cat.4 due MJO & SOI ‘s favorable (matching) condition. The landfall at Vizag can be explained with MJSOI-2G model with (-ve) phase diagram.

    Track A & Track B are the “ONLY 2 possible tracks” according to MJO & SOI probabilities (see general MJSOI-diagram). But only track B is possible for Hudhud to cross the coast at Vizag as a cyclone.

    Moreover this MJO & SOI favorable condition along with neutral IOD & pre-NEM energetic conditions fuelled Hudhud to grow into cat.4 cyclone.

    MJSOI- model general phase diagram: http://s15.postimg.org/fa0j0jagb/Page_1_MJSOI_1_model_05_16_2014.jpg

    Hudhud-MJSOI-2G (-ve) phase diagram:

  5. V got a flash news few hrs back ..v were told to get ready as shear is relaxing.. v may flow towards west n merge with s.bay vortices..

  6. Topic reminds me of the movie ‘The Shawshank Redemption’. One of the best movie ever made and hope the system deliver the best rains before end of December.

  7. Lot of positive vibes in here now, surely rain can’t miss Chennai this time around isn’t it friends?

    One small doubt. Can some one clarify what does Kea Weather refer by putting “need to watch closely” everyday. I think he is using some code language.

  8. Whenever the system recurves it will stay at some point for long time..so coastal tamilnadu/South AP will get moderate to heavy rains for long period from this system I believe

  9. Looks like it rained mildly at few places overnight. I could notice roads were wet from porur all the way to gunidy, saidapet and T.nagar.

  10. satellite picture shows promise as we could see cloud mass in bay up to 14 north. this could be the last chance for getting some useful heavy rains for longer duration to chennai.. if it moves slowly north, and cross coast with reasonable strength, probably we can get longer duration of rains. the minimum temperature still reveals easterlies are quite strong, as they did not go below 22 for the past one week. it is a good sign. throughout chennai, there were some drizzling also.
    ss

  11. how many of u believe that final system is made for tamilnadu??…btw i hav stepped into warm bay waters.. now moving twrds lanka to merge with lanka disturbance..a distance of 1000kms

  12. historic last week dec cyclones r 1964 dhanuskodi cyclone and 2011 thane cyclone.. both the years wer under lanina regime where v get entire bay waters for lease to perform our dance show.

  13. Wow, a cyclone on the end of December is always an Dangerous one.

    Dont believe ECMWF which is taking the cyclone to Burma. This one is for TN

  14. 1964 Dhanushkodi, 2000 Srilanka Cyclone and 2011 Cyclone Thane – These 3 cyclones in the last 65 years have formed between December 24-31 and have been the most dangerous one to come to TN

    • Oneway it is good that models are not showing a strong system for TN initially. Whenever they show a system in long time forecast , they change it just before two or three days away. Now they may zero in on NTN by 27th or 28th. : )

      • I am 54! I was 4 years old that time. Because of the intensity and the damage it did I could remember. Don’t assume that I was caught in center of the eye etc. It is difficult to believe that the ferocity and the destructive force with which it hit Gingee, so far away from the cyclone path. Houses got damaged completely, Big trees are thrown out of their roots and the bridge connecting to Chennai got washed away completely.

      • the famous boat mail train operated between chennai and srilanka (operated up to dhanushkodi,from where people went to srilanka through ship), for more than 50 years also stopped after that

      • thanks for sharing..my father used to tell me everytime and during thane as well that he has seen most destructive cyclone before 1970 but he cant remember the date..he has said that’s the worst cyclone he has witnessed in his lifetime in neyveli..thane next to that..
        After thane only I explored and thought it must be 1964 rameshwaram cyclone

  15. A comparison of December Cyclones from 1950 – Just see the ones in Yellow and add Cyclone Thane to it. This shows that whenever a cyclone forms in last week of December it has created lot damages and intensified than all other December cyclones.

  16. Today is the last day in blog for me in 2014 as i am going to my native place near Chitaral Mountains in Kanayakumari near Arumanai. Hope to post more on the system positively before i sign off. I may not blog when the system actually takes shape.

    Hope i will try to find some internet centre there.

  17. the latest satellite picture reveals a strong circulation developing just east of Srilanka and it is likely to move north further. it is just about 500 KMS east of jaffna. an ideal location to cover north, central Tn & South AP. looks interesting.
    ss

  18. present generation may not aware a super system crossed near chennai on 14th Jan.2015 where with in hour 215.4 Millimters of rains were recorded at Chennai. I.e. on bhogi & pongal day. Only our grandfathers know that.

    ss

  19. pj,
    ennaku oru doubt..
    all the models are showing different tracks..but nothing favoring Chennai..
    will Chennai turn out to be lucky this time?

  20. Today is the winter solstice; the day of the year when the sun stays the lowest in the sky in the northern hemisphere. The earth’s tilt of 23 1/2 degrees will be maximum with respect to the sun today.

  21. Hello Pradeep , GB, Dataman, Boosterman, Rain bank, Agumbe Anna…Merry X Mas..Have a good break and push some rains from KK to North coastal TN, TV Malai, Katpadi n nearby areas,South AP areas which is lagging behind.

  22. Pulmudai-Yan Oya in Srilanka NE corner has recorded close to 180mm in the last 24hrs..its just north of Trinco

  23. god has special send this new year system becoz of our bloggers
    and also we did not have direct system hitting TN..

  24. PJ, December last week cyclones will be only in 2 categories 1) struggled systems 2) strong systems. Reason so simple “firm alignment of the ridge in more southerly”. So December last week systems fight to combat this strong ridge only to succumb or to emerge out of this ridge as strong systems.

    • Have a look at the satellite pic. Its pulling moisture from Central Arabian sea. I am getting a feeling it may become a strong system. Whats your take on this.

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