759 thoughts on “Rain could make a return on Wednesday

  1. Humidity increased to 84% and Pressure dropped to 1010 hPa today after the humidity went down to 65% and pressure increased to 1015 hPa on Friday this week in my weather station.

    Is this signs of arrival of rain showers?

  2. AWESOME weather in tiruvarur hvy moisture in f air overcast all areas inundated small rivulets in full flow everywer unable to share any fotos bad upload speed 😦

      • Last night run its weaking on 240 hrs run.let be wait for todays run…if today they stick last night run??then ee hav to wait to exactly form of circulation location.becoz location will be.crucial and system speed and run time also very impt.

    • LOL. Really funny the way you misquote me. I said MJO alone cannot explain northern propagation. In any case your research is incomplete. Out of the 100 cases studied only 80 cases have the BSISO emerging from the MJO. Other 20 cases it is purely BSISO. So given lack of historical studies better not to draw conclusions.
      Another point is my wife (one who nicknamed me nalla manasu in a mocking way) wants to know why you men in science always use king of equatorial waves(king this king that) and not queen of equatorial waves. Is there a bias ?

      • if SST is cooler then MJO can not move in north direction. This happens in winter times.
        In summer times it will have northward propagation.

        Kelvin & rossby waves are ancestry waves (queen waves) for king MJO wave ha..ha..

      • Nature’s dynamics “can never/ever be concluded in 100 % in future too” due to its diversifying ability for its long survival.

  3. Wave after wave is fizzling out without giving a drop of rain because of other unfavorable parameters…..will at least the present seemingly loaded more organised wave will dump some rain to NTN

  4. SST around Chennai / NTN/SAP slowly getting favourable.
    Pls compare the 18th and 20th Dec images below.This alone is not enough to bring us the rains,but if the steering winds do bring any system north of Pondy,SST will support it.

  5. vertical wind shear weakened srilankan system drastically.Weakened maldives system is showing increase in thunderstorm as conditon getting favorable.There is also a disturbance near Indonesia but conditons are not favorable in bay now.GFS is expecting the development of another disturbance which is expected to follow this one into a minimal tropical cyclone.We have to wait and see to what extent the system is going to develop.

  6. @rsrao

    MJO can be called as “king wave” because among all equatorial waves (kelvin/rossby/etc.,) only it has the “ability to flip walker circulation towards Elnino mode” in king pacific ocean.

  7. It’s The End Of Summer
    the sweltering heat,
    makes human sweat in the night,
    and makes the plants and trees,
    wilt even in the moonlit nights.

    The eastern wind breeze brings an eerie feeling,
    that the monsoon clouds are soon coming,
    there is a strange silence in the ears,
    the sky gets darker and darker,
    the flash of lightning illuminates the dark skies,
    the sound of thunder fills the heart with fear.

    The rain starts coming down,
    slowly at first, but heavy little later,
    the gutters and drainages suddenly fill up,
    and water starts flowing down the streets.

    Children take off their shirts,
    they shower and dance in the sprinkling rain,
    their joy and free spirit,
    fills the hearts of onlookers with joyous music,
    the little paper boats start to float down the street,
    till they drown into the swallowing streams.

    The sound and the music of rain,
    fills the lovers heart,
    with the desire to meet their beloved,
    the embrace and kiss in the humid rainy day,
    elevates the desire of getting united in one entity.

    After the pouring rain for a while,
    the clouds start to break up and scatter in the sky,
    the sun comes out playing hide and seek with the clouds,
    the sun rays form the magnificent rainbow across the skies.

  8. No DDD Or A Storm For This Year.Year Ends Badly Santa Claus Doesn’t Want To Give A Gift
    A Very Good Bye NEM14 Will See You Next Year. Preparations For SWM15 Enjoy SWM TS
    Tata Bye Bye NEM

  9. No cyclones this year for Tamil Nadu till now. Now when there is some chance people are talking of AP, Myanmar & Bangladesh.

    Only places South of Tindivanam showing reasonably filled water bodies. Why is nature against North Tamil Nadu so much?

  10. few December Bangladesh cyclones:

    (1) 14–15 December 1965: A strong cyclone hit the coast near Cox’s Bazar and Patuakhali. The storm surge rose up to 4.7-6.1 m. The windspeed was up to 210 km/h in Cox’s Bazar. Casualty” 873 people. Damage: 40,000 salt beds destroyed.

    (2) 6–9 December 1973: The coastal areas near the Sundarbans were hit by a cyclone, accompanied by storm surge. Coastal areas near Patuakhali and nearby islands were submerged under the tidal bore.

  11. Cyclone can be forecast a week in advance, says top IMD official

    There has been a significant improvement in cyclone forecast and, presently, the IMD is giving a seven-day window, Laxman Singh Rathore, Director General of Meteorology, IMD, has said. Interacting with reporters at GITAM University, he said, while a 24-hour forecast was given in 2009, it went up to three days in 2012, and a week, including pre-genesis of the formation of the system, in 2014.

    New models developed were able to give projections on a cyclone intensifying and weakening, he said.
    β€œPhailin had rapidly intensified in 24 hours and we were able to give pointed forecast, though there was controversy about the U.S. stating that the IMD was underestimating,” Dr. Rathore said.

    http://www.thehindu.com/news/cities/Visakhapatnam/cyclone-can-be-forecast-a-week-in-advance-says-top-imd-official/article6708594.ece

    • OMG..270 kmph.

      On IMD reporting 210 kmph wind speed during Hudhud and 270 kmph
      reportedly recorded elsewhere, he said, β€œWhere and how it was recorded
      matters.”

  12. it has become bright and sunny with winds in delta dists vegetation is astounding everywhere green n water bodies fabulous like gods own country πŸ™‚

  13. NCMWRF expecting system to hit TN.

    System will be driven by 500 hpa winds. Around 216 hrs they are turning in N/NE direction but if the system comes close to TN around 192 hrs then it will hit TN but after 216 hrs it will go in N/NE. So timing of system formation is important here.

  14. Surprise surprise. GFS meteogram showing rains for us starting 27th or 28th. Will the final system of the year really happen?

  15. Today is December 21st. Shortest day of the year for Northern Hemisphere. First day of winter ( evev though enough snow has fallen on the ground) in the N Hemisphere.
    Well the question here is does it do anything for the systems in BOB.

  16. GFS has stopped its irritating path of nudging the system towards SL.Now it looks better and also converging with ECMWF to atleast push the system towards TN..now we need to hope that the system does not get steered by the NE ridge

  17. THE TROUGH OF LOW AT MEAN SEA LEVEL LAY OVER EQUTORIAL INDIAN

    REGTION AND ADJOINING SOUTH WEST BAY OF BENGAL OFF SRILANKA COAST

    PERSISTS

      • We in North TN, expect a system above your so called 17 knots anticlockwise rotation. Can you give a guarantee, that, you will visit us only.

      • Please rotate well so that the howling shear can be battled well to give some droplets to starving north TamilNadu people.

      • @Final System–May the Force be with you.And May you be Christened as ” the saviour of Chennai NEM 2014″

      • only two things can drive us.one is north northeast of my point and another one is too far by 3000kms in nw direction

      • System will be driven by 500 hpa winds. Around 216 hrs they are turning in N/NE direction( ECMWF this scenario) but if the system comes close to TN around 192 hrs( GFS expecting this scenario) then it will hit TN but after 216 hrs it will go in N/NE. So timing of system formation is important here.

      • oh..tats good. models hav decided my path already?. still i need to talk with them regarding my point of formation.so these r early forecast. may or maynot b true

      • your point of formation is still an issue. GFS expecting it to take place near SC BOB around 96 hrs whereas ECMWF expecting it to be near SE bay around 144 hrs.

      • Got your point. In simple terms, you are saying that your path is decided by external factors? And not by your willingness?

  18. Again ECMWF & GFS predictions vary..its happening frequently this NEM year..i don’t why ?ecmwf to bangla & gfs to nagai coast

    • In old tamil movies, when two brothers meet long time after being separated in their young age, there comes the family song viz “nalai namathae” “oru kootu kuyilaga” etc

      • Ehsan, sing a song familiar to you and odm. He will be coming in slow motion as seen in tamil movies.

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