1,090 thoughts on “Rain chances diminishing for Chennai

  1. ECMWF looks to be our only well wisher..bringing the LPA exactly east of Chennai by 29th Dec.
    We need to closely watch their next updates.

  2. Mitchell Johnson on his way to having his second Gabba day. But this time with the ball. Thanks to Rohit Sharma, “veliyela pora onnan ippa madiyile”

  3. The system is forming good, but the climate looks not conducive for rains in Chennai, We may know in the coming days.
    Isolated rains could start from tomorrow for NTN.

  4. Things are going to change from now on as I see a dramatic fall in the wind speed and change in the wind pattern!….this will make the conditions favourable here.

  5. Ecmwf brings the system close to n.tn.. tis is good as it has gained a decent latitude nearing n.tn. But I have a bit of fear inside me as there is a possibility of moving northeast as per ridge forecast on tat day given by gfs…hope the upper level winds stays best as possible ..cfs has already shown recurving the system from tis point .. btw gops ,referring to ur post, it is not a lpa. Difference in isobar is 4 which is a cyclone .if it is 2, it is a depression..

    • Winds flow from hpa to lpa.so both carries the importance in weather. 850 ,925hpa layers r the important boundary layers where the ocean and atmosphere condition interaction happens.

      • The actual pressure at this level (atmospheric level) that is 825/900 hpa (Hectopascal….am I right?) influences the whether system formation. We look at changes that take place here to analyse the whether….right?

      • of course! he is the first one to respond!! Each one of your core team is resourceful and must be congratulated for bringing whether close to common sense. The day is not far off when we will see this team emerging as a professional meteorologists. Being a non-science guy I get a lot of sense from your discussions. I have been following you for quiet some time now and also been making some observations but nothing based on science. But I hope to learn things based on science from you guys…..thanks

      • Do pressure and altitude have an inverse relationship…..as we go up atmospheric pressure comes down……vice versa?

      • Do pressure and altitude have an inverse relationship…..as we go up atmospheric pressure comes down……vice versa?

    • Every layer is important. As sel says lower levels are the most important (ones with higher hPa values), but as you go deeper and deeper into weather you’ll find that mid and upper levels are also fundamental

  6. As expected a circulation has developed very close to SL, to its SE. We might see some rain reaching S TN and Delta districts tonight/tomorrow morning and Sri Lanka is going to get pounded again

  7. With the STR dipping with time we’ll find systems that have better organization and outflow the deeper we go into NEM.. sadly, latitude becomes a problem. If they are in the right zone between dry air and shear and lower latitudes they could intensify rapidly

  8. why in 2014 walker circulation has not flipped towards regular Elnino (NEM-friendly)? Instead severe unstable oscillatory walker circulation caused Elnino-modoki type conditions in 2014 😦

  9. “india are leading by 127 runs. Can india perform a miracle like Kapil
    and Ghavri did in the Melbourne Test – where Gavaskar walked off.”

      • GFS Parallel has turned to be more consistent and doesn’t vary greatly with each run unlike GFS.. It was also more accurate in forecasting systems especially 99W and November end system

  10. Delta dist to get pounded probably again by tomorrow could have more than 50-100mm+ even.
    Giant continues to be Giant and Dry continues to be Dry.

  11. 10 Days To Go Then Blog Will Not Even Touch 100 Comments For A Topic So Enjoy Now After Jan To May Blog Will Be Hybernation Mod Then Boost Up From Sep to Dec Slow Pace Expected To Start From Jan 2
    Hope Not Comes True

  12. PJ!!! Almost Season Is Gonna Be Over Everyone One Knows GB Is U Come With Your ORIGINAL ID No Chance Of Rain If U Say Only Rain Comes U Will Come Then U Can Only Come Next June 2015 Or Oct 2015

  13. Good morning guys..

    A mini Kea meet (North Chennai Chapter) is tentatively planned for tomorrow at Jeetu’s Fort, Perambur.

    Jeetu…after reaching Perambur Barackks Road, i will call you..after buying the paper bundles, we can meet at Reliance Trends / Spectrum / MM Park (below flyover)..Okva? 😀

    All are welcome!!!

  14. Ha ha ODM planning à mini meet? Has anyone seen him before? Does anyone know his real name? Is he Jon? Or is it me as everyone thinks it is. Interesting Sunday ahead.

  15. my friends were asking that any rain possible..i told that there is a system comming so heavy rain possible i told…
    but now i gonna tell that no rain possible…
    am correct?guys..
    ur answer..

  16. 3rd day of rains from the trough of low, TN rainfall ending 8.30 am on 19.12.2014
    The trough of low at mean sea level over Comorin area and neighbourhood now lies over Comorin – Maldives area and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea.

    in mm (min 15 mm)

    Upper Kodayar – 75
    Lalapet – 60
    Kattumannarkoil – 50
    Vedaranyam – 42
    Venbavur – 33
    Vadakadu – 32
    Papanasam Dam – 32
    Palandurai – 28
    Veppanthatai – 28
    Tondi – 27
    Sendurai – 27
    Lakkur – 26
    Andimadam – 26
    Kolli Dam – 25
    Chettikulam – 24
    Kamudhi – 23
    Mangalur – 23
    Sivaganga – 22
    Samayapuram – 20
    Kodavasal – 20
    Tozhudur – 19
    Viralimalai – 19
    Perambalur – 18
    Srimushnam – 18
    Avudayarkoil – 18
    Lower Papanasam Dam – 17
    Ramanathapuram – 17
    Servalar – 16
    Muthupet – 16
    Kodaikanal – 16
    Uppiliyapuram – 16
    Budalur – 16
    Viralimalai – 15
    Palani – 15
    Kadavur – 15
    Papansam T – 15
    Natham – 15
    M.Mathur – 15

  17. Sri Lanka gets dream NEM spell. Rainfall ending 8:30 am in mm
    Hurulu Wewa – 221
    Maha Illupallama – 180
    Anuradhapura – 163
    Pollanaruwa – 149
    Batticaloa – 148
    Puttalam – 75
    Monaragala – 65
    Trincomalee – 56

  18. Tamilnadu Rainfall till 8.30am today.

    Adirampatnam – 46mm
    Pudukottai – 36mm
    Tirumayam – 30mm
    Tondi – 26mm
    Karaikal – 25mm
    Muthupet – 23mm
    Lower Kothaiyar – 16mm

  19. NOAA is experiencing a large data outage that is affecting all American models including the GFS, NAM, GEFS, and GEPS. The ECMWF should plot fine, as should the CMC. I will update as things change.

    Courtesy: Williamette from The weatherforum

  20. Peravurani (Thanjavur Dist) 8 each

    Pattukottai (Thanjavur Dist), Kodavasal (Tiruvarur Dist), Adirampatnam (Thanjavur Dist), Madukkur (Thanjavur Dist) 5 each

    Alangudi (Pudukkottai Dist), Papanasam (Tirunelveli Dist), Pudukottai (Pudukkottai Dist)
    4 each

    Needamangalam (Tiruvarur Dist), Manimutharu (Tirunelveli Dist), Muthupet (Tiruvarur Dist), Manamelkudi (Pudukkottai Dist), Arimalam (Pudukkottai Dist), Ramanathapuram (Ramanathapuram Dist), Nannilam (Tiruvarur Dist), Tirumayam (Pudukkottai Dist), Trangambadi(or)tranqueb (Nagapattinam Dist), Arantangi (Pudukkottai Dist), Ramnad nicra (Ramanathapuram Dist), Tondi (Ramanathapuram Dist), Tiruvarur (Tiruvarur Dist), Karaikal (Karaikal Dist), Mannargudi (Tiruvarur Dist) 3 each

    • No rains. Chillness has gone down considerably (18-19)is the minimum being recorded for the past week. The humidity is in 60s and Dew point in the range of 16 to 19. So there is moisture in the air.

  21. Most of the places in Rainfall Data are from delta dist eventhough much convection is placed on South Tamilnadu yesterday.

  22. Unfortunately we are in a very degraded state on the backup server that we couldn’t anticipate until going through the 12Z cycle. In order to mitigate the strain on the backup server it has been decided to turn off all parallel feeds at this time. That includes:

    Global and Hurricane Waves
    Great Lakes Wave
    Air Quality

    It is still going to be possible that data will be delayed and we will have to address that situation if it comes to that. The expectation is that this data will be unavailable for the entire weekend. We will extend the evaluation periods of the models currently in their 30-day accordingly. We deeply apologize for this inconvenience and once the issue with the primary server is resolved we will resume all data flow to normal. A message will be sent out at that time to update users.

    Carissa Klemmer
    NCEP Central Operations
    Production Management Branch Dataflow Team

    GFS weekend run may get affected.

  23. currently nothing supporting rains for TN as whole, thing will turn around after Friday..one good system will erase all our deficit and that would be somewhere btw 26evening -30th dec..

  24. Given the tendency of the Bay to generate less number of TCs this year the question whether the factors that inhibit TC formation/intensification have been removed or not ?

  25. oly Chennai gonna end up in deficit it seems even tanjore which was lagging behind is getting som rains overall good NEM for TN

    • Yes Jon, Tanjore got decent rains this week. Must be close to 10cms. But its still having 8cm deficit. Hoping for one final showdown of NEM before it signs off early Jan. Between, did u reach Delta?

  26. IF any strong system can appear near central tamilnadu before this month end then,
    chennai will on normal
    delta and south will be on above normal

  27. Some promising light rains/drizzles possible on 24th as per GFS. Lets see if these light rains surprises us with some isolated showers

  28. i think system slowly consolidating east of srilanka.may most probabaly move towards south TN and adjoining srilanka as a Low pressure area.what r ur thoughts?

      • but on the other hand i think system is trying to intensify and move perfectly NW to make landfall in south AP,yes exactly depicting 1990 AP super cyclone track

      • yeah that is new year system…..still not clear about both intensity and movement:
        ecmwf showing strong dd 100km se of chennai on 29 dec….

      • yes.but cyclone landfall in SOUTH AP is always benefit for both TN,AP.for example LAILA which smashed chennai with heavy rains in peak summer.LAILA cyclone was wonderful gift for chennai,AP

      • Not every cyclone…it is based on bands……from helen cyclone we got only light drizzles…..the cyclone which may cross in th belt of cuddalore- pondichery will be the gift for chennai and north tamilnadu

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