Try to push the remnants of Hagupit into our bay close to GOM as that is the ideal place from where even if we receive a shadow – we will have good rain – btw – bon voyage and enjoy ur trip.
Chennai Nungambakkam Desert, I’m expecting around 8-9 cm
Hehehe I am expecting 12cm in my house RG because last easterly wave was weak and gave 145mm in my area so this easterlies are strong so expecting more than 12cm:-)
First its better to be familiar with the key words (i.e. equatorial zonal wind, easterlies, westerlies, tropical stratosphere, tropical tropopause) involved in QBO pulled out from Wikipedia.
I think all the above keywords are interlinked with NEM/SWM related rainfall systems over Indian subcontinent/tropical global climate.
The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) (from Wikipedia):
The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is a quasiperiodic oscillation of the equatorial zonal wind between easterlies and westerlies in the tropical stratosphere with a mean period of 28 to 29 months. The alternating wind regimes develop at the top of the lower stratosphere and propagate downwards at about 1 km (0.6 mi) per month until they are dissipated at the tropical tropopause. Downward motion of the easterlies is usually more irregular than that of the westerlies. The amplitude of the easterly phase is about twice as strong as that of the westerly phase. At the top of the vertical QBO domain, easterlies dominate, while at the bottom, westerlies are more likely to be found.
Chennai is going to witness an excellent finish of NEM this year. Starting from 21st Dec to 31st Dec it will be rain dhamaka. Particularly second and third low which is expected to hit TN coast on 26th and 30th will bring bounty of rain. chears.
Had asked this last night, posting again.
How many years has seen two cyclones after December 20th. Has it ever happened? Green Bee was mentioning two cyclones possible as per models.
No. Chennai has faced the effects of many cyclonic disturbances in December. 2003 one that went to Andhra, Baaz, Fanoos, “Fake” Mala, Cyclone Ward’s outer bands, 2010 depression, Thane, Madi, etc.
Where all these systems in the second half of December Sudharshan? Madi of last year I remember happened around 10th I think.
Madi was around 10th isn’t it Sudharshan, I will try to Google the link which you have mentioned and check past cyclones. Thanks for your help.
Thanks Saikrishna
ameen,
Certain facts based comments need to be done using CPT to make others believe our concepts very well.
SOI variation depends majorly one ONI-index than MJO (yet to enter phase 4/3).
If we see latest ONI index Nino 3&4 further warmed up relatively when compared to nino1&2 indexes. So SOI started decreasing.
The Niño 3.4 region rose to 0.9 C over the last week, and is at least 0.5 C for the 9th week in a row as weak El Niño conditions continue.
situation looks good. Stage has been set for dramatic finish for this year NEM. 500 mm is over expectation. I would say 300 achievable and 400 mm will be a surprise.
captain before posting such report you should
have given statutory warning!! heart patients
n emotionally weak people please skip this
news!!! ( like that )..500 mm for nem itself
seems huge these days…in. 15 days ??!!
if this happens odm n catamaran will b d
need of d hour…
2nd day of heavy rains from WD in Himachal, ending 8.30 am on 15.12.2014
==============================
Western Disturbance (W.D.) as an upper air cyclonic circulation over Jammu & Kashmir and adjoining north Pakistan now lies over Jammu & Kashmir and neighbourhood extending upto 5.8 km above mean sea level with a trough aloft runs roughly along long. 74.0°E and to the north of lat. 25.0°N
after rain in the night, from the morning sun and clouds are playing hide and seek, waiting for how this day unfolds. now a days positive topic from captain often,which also increases the hope of this fortnight rain.
Tropical Pacific Ocean close to El Niño thresholds
The tropical Pacific remains close to El Niño thresholds, with a number of countries around the Pacific Ocean basin and further afield showing some El Nino-like impacts in recent months.
The equatorial Pacific Ocean remains warm, with surface temperatures exceeding El Niño thresholds for several weeks. Typically, after the ocean has exceeded thresholds for an extended period, an El Niño is considered to be underway. However, some atmospheric indicators, such as the trade winds, cloudiness and tropical rainfall, have not shown sustained and widespread patterns consistent with El Niño. The Southern Oscillation Index, which has remained negative for several months, has recently eased back from El Niño thresholds; this is likely to be a weather related short-term fluctuation in the index.
The Bureau’s ENSO Tracker status is currently at ALERT, indicating a greater than 70% chance that the atmosphere will start to reinforce the ocean in the coming months. Regardless of whether El Niño is declared, El Niño-like impacts are likely to continue, as shown by recent seasonal outlooks. For Australia, this means a drier and warmer summer than normal is likely for many.
All climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate little change is likely in the tropical Pacific Ocean in the coming weeks and months, with ocean temperatures forecast to either remain close to, or just above, El Niño thresholds. If the atmosphere does start to reinforce the ocean, models suggest the resulting El Niño would most likely be weak or moderate at most.
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Tracker status remains at El Niño ALERT level. Given current observations and model outlooks, there is at least a 70% chance that the atmosphere will start to reinforce the ocean in the coming months, however, an El Niño event developing at this time of year would be unusual.
Regardless of whether or not El Niño is declared, it has similar impacts for much of Australia, meaning below average rainfall and above average temperatures are likely for many in the months ahead, as shown by the Bureau’s recent Climate Outlooks.
1. I feel that there is a dry period ahead over Australia, hence once again the SOI may turn Negative after a weeks time, till that it will be negatively neutral.
2. The NINO 4 and 3 are getting hotter and NINO 3.4 remains the same for the past 3 weeks, hence emergence of ELNINO Modoki possible, if NINO4 SST increases and NINO3 decreases, there is a chance for LANINA too by the upcoming summer.
There are 2 possibilities, either MODOKI or LANINA.
Even I had similar thoughts once as nino 4 warming may help in bringing la nina , now I have realized it ..Nino 4 warming is quite common during elnino but until n unless central n east pacific shows decreasing trend in sst, elnino like conditions may persist till next summer..
There was an accident last night near Annanagar new flyover, may be the bloggers from that area might know it.
It was one of distant relative, who met with this accident last night and got hit in the barricade at the centre of the road.
His chest has hit the barricade and one of the ribs broken, he himself call the 108 and got ambulance and went to KMC and got admitted, but later on he had breathing problem and passed away early morning.
This is due to – the broken rib bone has teared the lungs inside, so started to have breathing problem and passed away.
Dont think that i am sharing my personal views here, but i have 5 accidents in the past one week, all dead on the spot.
Last Tuesday my cab met with the accident, and all my colleagues got injured and they are safe, by gods grace i was on leave on that day.
I request you people to follow the rules properly, even though there is no traffic, please follow the signal.
Expecting you to be good and disciplined citizens of India.
I was really affected by hearing and seeing these accidents for the past one week.
Yup. I know a lot about accidents. I myself broke my finger couple of months back in a bike accident. I couldnt use my left hand for a month and the experience was horrible. So i advise ppl to not overspeed even if there is no traffic. Even a running dog could distract you. Pls be safe.
R.I.P sad to hear Rules r framed only to obey must think family members r depending on every one who is riding be slow and safe riding..
people who rash drives, or disobey the rules , before to that they should think about their family, lot of family depends on single earning, any loss will jeopardize the entire family.
most of the accidents are due to those lorry driving people flouting rules by drunk and drive
especially the sand carrying lorries drives in over speed, we can see this in trunk roads, and some times in interior roads also
Really sad to hear,r.i.p,
my close friend in college died this year passed away in a similar accident to this he was hit and run by a tanker lorry while riding his bike:(
Absolutely we must follow the rules – obey the signals irrespective of police presence.Even a small country like Sri Lanka where people follow the road rules meticulously . Just cross in the pedestrian crossing all vehicle will stop automatically without police presence. We need to inculcate good habits
It was really Amazing to see the civic sense and discipline in the Sri Lankan society. Most of the places are neat and clean and people follow the rules and Q at most of the public places. Looks like India and Indians are one of the major exception to the normal human being behavior.
comparing other metros and major cities in India , chennai people are better when comes to follow the rules
That is why you find lot of europeans in their beaches – perhaps they feel relaxed and secure !
Madden–Julian Oscillation to strengthen over Indian Ocean
The moderate to strong Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) that recently moved eastwards along the equator at Australian longitudes has weakened over the western Pacific this past week. It is now so weak that it is unlikely to still be influencing tropical weather.
Model forecasts indicate a slow moving MJO will strengthen in the tropical central or eastern Indian Ocean this week. While there is some uncertainty concerning its strength and speed, some models indicate a weak MJO will be over Australian longitudes during the last week of December moving eastwards into the west Pacific Ocean in early January.
When the MJO is located over the Indian Ocean at this time of year, as some models are indicating will be the case for the next fortnight, it increases the risk of tropical cyclone development in the region. Likewise, as the active MJO moves over Australian longitudes, it increases the chance of monsoonal rainfall over northern Australia as well as tropical cyclone development across the Australian region.
Northern Australia heats up
This past week has seen a rise in temperatures across northern Australia. A heat-low, an area of low pressure that forms over very warm land surfaces, has formed over central Australia. This weather pattern has increased westerly wind flow and temperatures across northern Australia and caused some rainfall over the Kimberley region. High temperatures are expected to continue for most of this week.
El Niño–Southern Oscillation nears El Niño thresholds
Oceanic indicators of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are hovering near El Niño thresholds; however, atmospheric indicators such as trade winds, cloudiness and rainfall have either remained near average or only temporarily approached thresholds. The latest NINO3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly is +0.9 °C. The latest Southern Oscillation Index value up to 14 December is –5.1.
Regardless of whether El Niño is declared, El Niño-like impacts are likely to continue. For Australia, this means a drier and warmer summer than normal is likely for many.
he himself said y’day, “it is time for me to come in my original name”, i think when chennai receives heavy rainfall he will re emerge in his original name.
There are many more to come out in their real original name
Earth on track for hottest year
——————————————————-
The world is still heading for the hottest year on record although last month was only the seventh warmest November since 1880, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said on Monday.
The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces during November tied with 2008 as the seventh highest for the month, at 0.65 degrees Celcius above the 20th century average, the NOAA said in its monthly report, according to Xinhua.
This ends a streak of three consecutive months with a record warm monthly global temperature, but the average temperatures for September-November as well as the first 11 months were still both the highest on record for such periods, it said.
earlier it was thought like tat but interestingly new agcm,ogcm models stimulation shows decrease in frequency of tropical cyclones all around the globe from 2020 to 2050.but the intensity is highly getting doubled.
agree, if we see in the recent typhoon activities in u.s and elsewhere the impact were high than all the previously known,
frequency may decline or rapidly rise. nature has to decide
This is the third consecutive day the market has fallen – incl. friday. – tough to predict – currency hedging also has
taken a beating – what about your silver portfolio have you made anything or on the negative ?
I already hinted a dip is there in December, but another dip in silver is around 20 Feb onwards
I know it is off track – but how do you say the date feb.20 ? Is it due to budget or otherwise? But
people who are in the market will not walk out – or give up it is an addiction like this blog .
Means final week of Feb onwards, dip meanings a plunging low from the recent highs, but 2015 will be a zig zag will no more top highs
an article in today’s dinamalar says around 15 tmc water wasted from papanasam dam, on one hand we have to be at the mercy of raingod, and neighbor states for water, and in other hand we waste the same, will authorities build new dams to store precious water?
the geographical place of t.n, has made that we have to depend on others, though as per constitution all rivers are for all people of india, it is not the reality one.
forget tn wb etc . migrate to a place where it rains
Before building new dams the priority should be to desilt the existing ones. We had a chance when most of them were dry a couple of years back.
interlinking of rivers with in the state can also a be a solution, though it costs more, this way we can avoid wastage, like veeranam lake connected with chennai.
Kurudamannil records surprise heavy rains, Kerala rainfall ending 8.30 am on 15.12.2014
===========================================
The trough at mean sea level from southeast Arabian Sea to southwest Madhya Pradesh now runs from southeast Arabian Sea to north Madhya Maharashtra.
Papanasam records 400 mm from this easterlies spell, TN rainfall ending 8.30 am on 15.12.2014
===========================================
The trough at mean sea level from southeast Arabian Sea to southwest Madhya Pradesh now runs from southeast Arabian Sea to north Madhya Maharashtra.
People cannot figure out what that means. I find when I go for morning walks wearing that tshirt everybody wants to know what that means. A great way to make friends especially the pretty ones 😉
Hi on travel to singapore be back on 21 will bring back remnants of hsgupit from siuth china sea
Try to push the remnants of Hagupit into our bay close to GOM as that is the ideal place from where even if we receive a shadow – we will have good rain – btw – bon voyage and enjoy ur trip.
Sat pic lot of clouding in bob will it hit tn coast
Hvy rain for the last 15 mins
I was about to comment – it has started to drizzle – which area rainman?
Adyr – dtizzled for 10 mins now hvy for 15 mins with winds
Strms lining up nicely…it shud easily be 10mm so far
But nunga is struggling – it is not much here though – enjoy btw
Nunga 0.4 mm so far,,will get more soon
It has subsided – how about in ur area – thiruporur?
Not a bad start at all…20mm and more on the way , shud be close to 40mm by morning
Do you have a RG?
It is now steady light rain
Storms forming near our coast
raining in kodambakkam..
Smashing rains in pallikaranai.
Only passing clouds at Pursawakkam
Moderate rains for 10 mins here.
Most parts of city will have good showers today.
GFS continues to forecast severe rains for Chennai
Super
Light rains expected tonight and hopefully by tomorrow some heavy spells will come our way.
Let’s see if CND can notch up decent figures
What is CND? and how much cm you expect from this spell to chennai?
Chennai Nungambakkam Desert, I’m expecting around 8-9 cm
Hehehe I am expecting 12cm in my house RG because last easterly wave was weak and gave 145mm in my area so this easterlies are strong so expecting more than 12cm:-)
Sorry It’s not 155mm it is 145mm:-)
Till year end is it?
nop, from this spell
Look at that convection in ARB
finally rains confirmed:-D
Nothing is confirmed until it’s over. That’s the state of this NEM
But is it all over?
yes its look like a powerful one?????
First its better to be familiar with the key words (i.e. equatorial zonal wind, easterlies, westerlies, tropical stratosphere, tropical tropopause) involved in QBO pulled out from Wikipedia.
I think all the above keywords are interlinked with NEM/SWM related rainfall systems over Indian subcontinent/tropical global climate.
The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) (from Wikipedia):
The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is a quasiperiodic oscillation of the equatorial zonal wind between easterlies and westerlies in the tropical stratosphere with a mean period of 28 to 29 months. The alternating wind regimes develop at the top of the lower stratosphere and propagate downwards at about 1 km (0.6 mi) per month until they are dissipated at the tropical tropopause. Downward motion of the easterlies is usually more irregular than that of the westerlies. The amplitude of the easterly phase is about twice as strong as that of the westerly phase. At the top of the vertical QBO domain, easterlies dominate, while at the bottom, westerlies are more likely to be found.
QBO wiki: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quasi-biennial_oscillation
CPT AH?
CPT???
Copy paste technique 😉
Pre/post monsoons and its related systems can be independent of the following key words related to QBO?
QBO-key words:
equatorial zonal wind, easterlies, westerlies, tropical stratosphere, tropical tropopause
Chennai is going to witness an excellent finish of NEM this year. Starting from 21st Dec to 31st Dec it will be rain dhamaka. Particularly second and third low which is expected to hit TN coast on 26th and 30th will bring bounty of rain. chears.
One thing is clear.. BOB is going to get super active in 3-4 days time
To bid farewell to NEM?
Nah, that would be coinciding farewell to 2014
Paradip radar itself is not yet open to public. How will Karaikal radar be operational this Jan then?
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/bhubaneswar/IMD-Doppler-radar-at-Paradip-by-Oct/articleshow/38041086.cms
Had asked this last night, posting again.
How many years has seen two cyclones after December 20th. Has it ever happened? Green Bee was mentioning two cyclones possible as per models.
Not even 1 is possible
So do we go by models or bloggers judgment?
There have been many cases of systems after December 20th and in Jan and even in Feb.. Cyclones have occurred in December end, but I’m not sure of 2
Has 2 cyclones happened ever in the second half of December.
yes
Which year Sudharshan if I may ask. Is there a way to find these historical data.
Yes, you can find in weather unisys. It happened in 2005, last year too, with 1 cyclone in Jan and Madi in december
post 2000 Chennai Has Witnessed Only 1 December Cyclone[Thane]
No. Chennai has faced the effects of many cyclonic disturbances in December. 2003 one that went to Andhra, Baaz, Fanoos, “Fake” Mala, Cyclone Ward’s outer bands, 2010 depression, Thane, Madi, etc.
Where all these systems in the second half of December Sudharshan? Madi of last year I remember happened around 10th I think.
Madi was around 10th isn’t it Sudharshan, I will try to Google the link which you have mentioned and check past cyclones. Thanks for your help.
Thanks Saikrishna
ameen,
Certain facts based comments need to be done using CPT to make others believe our concepts very well.
Just i was joking
why sorry? 🙂
Sorry
ha..ha…
I am sorry
OMG…what’s happening over BOB.
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/olr.htm
Easterlies 🙂
Guest11k/Vela,
SOI variation depends majorly one ONI-index than MJO (yet to enter phase 4/3).
If we see latest ONI index Nino 3&4 further warmed up relatively when compared to nino1&2 indexes. So SOI started decreasing.
The Niño 3.4 region rose to 0.9 C over the last week, and is at least 0.5 C for the 9th week in a row as weak El Niño conditions continue.
Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4
Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA
05NOV2014 21.9 0.5 25.8 0.9 27.4 0.8 29.5 0.9
12NOV2014 22.4 0.9 25.8 0.9 27.5 0.8 29.5 0.9
19NOV2014 22.6 0.8 26.0 1.0 27.5 0.9 29.5 0.9
26NOV2014 22.4 0.4 25.9 0.9 27.6 1.0 29.5 0.9
03DEC2014 22.3 0.0 25.8 0.7 27.4 0.8 29.4 0.9
10DEC2014 22.8 0.2 26.0 0.9 27.5 0.9 29.4 0.9
MJO: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml
Synoptic Chart
Vela sir i am registered in Dundee sat images they have sent password in e mail if i try it is telling error
you still have not put up your profile pic
I don’t know how to upload
Give ur id and pwd to ehsan. He will do it for u.
As per GFS, Chennai can get another 500 mm in final 15 days of this month. Will it happen?
Surely it will happen because when gfs removed all the rains for chennai on November 27th it happened when LPA was there in bob
situation looks good. Stage has been set for dramatic finish for this year NEM. 500 mm is over expectation. I would say 300 achievable and 400 mm will be a surprise.
captain before posting such report you should
have given statutory warning!! heart patients
n emotionally weak people please skip this
news!!! ( like that )..500 mm for nem itself
seems huge these days…in. 15 days ??!!
if this happens odm n catamaran will b d
need of d hour…
Gfs
Gfs dec 30
2nd day of heavy rains from WD in Himachal, ending 8.30 am on 15.12.2014
==============================
Western Disturbance (W.D.) as an upper air cyclonic circulation over Jammu & Kashmir and adjoining north Pakistan now lies over Jammu & Kashmir and neighbourhood extending upto 5.8 km above mean sea level with a trough aloft runs roughly along long. 74.0°E and to the north of lat. 25.0°N
in mm (min 15 mm)
Arki – 90
Nahan – 63
Gohar – 51
Sundernagar – 48
Rajgarh – 44
Mandi – 42
Jogindernagar – 39
Bhoranj – 38
Hamirpur – 38
Baldwara – 38
Sarahan – 37
Sunnibajji – 37
Kasaol – 37
Pandoh – 36
Kahu – 35
Kasauli – 33
Solan – 33
Kothipura – 30
Palampur – 28
Malraun – 25
Kandaghat – 21
Dharmashala – 18
Barsar – 17
Bajura – 15
Bhuntar – 15
Bhandal – 15
Majhouli – 15
Beneficial rain and snow for drought-stricken California this week. go.usa.gov/RRX
Snow is coming to the eastern US late this week and into the weekend
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/satellite/Asia/India/Infraredcolor.htm
wow…unbelievable low wind shear at BOB and Arabian oceans that too at mid-dcember.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=shr&zoom=&time=
41 cm out of 44 for tn. http://www.maalaimalar.com/2014/12/16080422/received-91-percent-of-northea.html
after rain in the night, from the morning sun and clouds are playing hide and seek, waiting for how this day unfolds. now a days positive topic from captain often,which also increases the hope of this fortnight rain.
Looks like a furious Santa claus rally is on the cards. Almost resembles 1983 December.This NEM is almost close to 1983 in terms of rainfall pattern.
After a good early morning shower, things looking good for tonight also
Not only tonight for next 15 days its going to be a Rain Blast in chennai.
Let’s see, but once again naked eye observations are worthy one
Ohh great..Rained well in Perambur??
Tropical Pacific Ocean close to El Niño thresholds
The tropical Pacific remains close to El Niño thresholds, with a number of countries around the Pacific Ocean basin and further afield showing some El Nino-like impacts in recent months.
The equatorial Pacific Ocean remains warm, with surface temperatures exceeding El Niño thresholds for several weeks. Typically, after the ocean has exceeded thresholds for an extended period, an El Niño is considered to be underway. However, some atmospheric indicators, such as the trade winds, cloudiness and tropical rainfall, have not shown sustained and widespread patterns consistent with El Niño. The Southern Oscillation Index, which has remained negative for several months, has recently eased back from El Niño thresholds; this is likely to be a weather related short-term fluctuation in the index.
The Bureau’s ENSO Tracker status is currently at ALERT, indicating a greater than 70% chance that the atmosphere will start to reinforce the ocean in the coming months. Regardless of whether El Niño is declared, El Niño-like impacts are likely to continue, as shown by recent seasonal outlooks. For Australia, this means a drier and warmer summer than normal is likely for many.
All climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate little change is likely in the tropical Pacific Ocean in the coming weeks and months, with ocean temperatures forecast to either remain close to, or just above, El Niño thresholds. If the atmosphere does start to reinforce the ocean, models suggest the resulting El Niño would most likely be weak or moderate at most.
Weather Outlook from 18th December 2014 to 22nd December 2014
♦ Rain/thundershowers would occur at a few places over south peninsular India and Andaman & Nicobar Islands and at isolated places over Lakshadweep.
♦ A fresh western disturbance would affect western Himalayan region from 21st December.
♦ Weather would be dry over rest of the country.
source: imd delhi report
Understanding ENSO – Bureau of Meteorology
pondy and cuddalore currently moderate to heavy rain
just for fun
Why Nicaragua’s canal could spell environmental disaster, and possibly revolution
Construction is about to begin on a massive, Chinese-built canal through the heart of Nicaragua — but there are many people who want to stop it.
Read more: http://www.mnn.com/earth-matters/wilderness-resources/stories/why-nicaraguas-canal-could-spell-environmental-disaster#ixzz3M259OF00
Rain has started to mix over to snow in Minneapolis
http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/minneapolis-mn/55415/weather-forecast/348794
Hurricane force winds sustained along northern coast of Hokkaido likely … pressure 958 mb as low retrogrades
El Niño tracker status remains at ALERT Level
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Tracker status remains at El Niño ALERT level. Given current observations and model outlooks, there is at least a 70% chance that the atmosphere will start to reinforce the ocean in the coming months, however, an El Niño event developing at this time of year would be unusual.
Regardless of whether or not El Niño is declared, it has similar impacts for much of Australia, meaning below average rainfall and above average temperatures are likely for many in the months ahead, as shown by the Bureau’s recent Climate Outlooks.
Rami,
Based on the latest info on ENSO,
1. I feel that there is a dry period ahead over Australia, hence once again the SOI may turn Negative after a weeks time, till that it will be negatively neutral.
2. The NINO 4 and 3 are getting hotter and NINO 3.4 remains the same for the past 3 weeks, hence emergence of ELNINO Modoki possible, if NINO4 SST increases and NINO3 decreases, there is a chance for LANINA too by the upcoming summer.
There are 2 possibilities, either MODOKI or LANINA.
Correct me if i am wrong…
Any chance of heavy rain tonight?
Heavy rain in pondy since morning
enjoy
Japan will see very powerful version of Nor’easter.
MSLP to drop from 1006 mb to 949 mb in 24/hrs
8.30am
Even I had similar thoughts once as nino 4 warming may help in bringing la nina , now I have realized it ..Nino 4 warming is quite common during elnino but until n unless central n east pacific shows decreasing trend in sst, elnino like conditions may persist till next summer..
Synoptic Charts
Better rains should start from late evening or night.
Upper Winds at 850 hPa
Precipitation Outlook for India
4.7 earthquake, 137km ESE of Iquique, Chile. Dec 16 01:43 at epicenter (depth 97km). http://j.mp/1wUMkJS
Cola Prediction
TN Agri Forecast
Surface Winds
up to 8.30 am monday rainfall:
thirukovilur – 9cm, kelambakkam,poondi -7cm, thiruvalankadu- 6cm, polur, sankarapuram, papanasam( tirunelveli), vandavasi, seyyur(kanchidt), manimutharu- 5cm.
source: imd chennai
A batch of rain is approaching the Los Angeles area
http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/southern-california/weather-radar
Easterlies ready to hit tonight.
for chennai when will easterlies affect
That’s for Chennai. Expecting it tonight.
Guys,
There was an accident last night near Annanagar new flyover, may be the bloggers from that area might know it.
It was one of distant relative, who met with this accident last night and got hit in the barricade at the centre of the road.
His chest has hit the barricade and one of the ribs broken, he himself call the 108 and got ambulance and went to KMC and got admitted, but later on he had breathing problem and passed away early morning.
This is due to – the broken rib bone has teared the lungs inside, so started to have breathing problem and passed away.
Dont think that i am sharing my personal views here, but i have 5 accidents in the past one week, all dead on the spot.
Last Tuesday my cab met with the accident, and all my colleagues got injured and they are safe, by gods grace i was on leave on that day.
I request you people to follow the rules properly, even though there is no traffic, please follow the signal.
Expecting you to be good and disciplined citizens of India.
I was really affected by hearing and seeing these accidents for the past one week.
Please take care guys…
Sorry to hear.
very sad to hear. Oh god
Yup. I know a lot about accidents. I myself broke my finger couple of months back in a bike accident. I couldnt use my left hand for a month and the experience was horrible. So i advise ppl to not overspeed even if there is no traffic. Even a running dog could distract you. Pls be safe.
sad to hear this, r.i.p,
it is better people follow rules which benefits not only them, but also their family members
R.I.P sad to hear Rules r framed only to obey must think family members r depending on every one who is riding be slow and safe riding..
people who rash drives, or disobey the rules , before to that they should think about their family, lot of family depends on single earning, any loss will jeopardize the entire family.
most of the accidents are due to those lorry driving people flouting rules by drunk and drive
especially the sand carrying lorries drives in over speed, we can see this in trunk roads, and some times in interior roads also
Really sad to hear,r.i.p,
my close friend in college died this year passed away in a similar accident to this he was hit and run by a tanker lorry while riding his bike:(
Absolutely we must follow the rules – obey the signals irrespective of police presence.Even a small country like Sri Lanka where people follow the road rules meticulously . Just cross in the pedestrian crossing all vehicle will stop automatically without police presence. We need to inculcate good habits
It was really Amazing to see the civic sense and discipline in the Sri Lankan society. Most of the places are neat and clean and people follow the rules and Q at most of the public places. Looks like India and Indians are one of the major exception to the normal human being behavior.
comparing other metros and major cities in India , chennai people are better when comes to follow the rules
That is why you find lot of europeans in their beaches – perhaps they feel relaxed and secure !
sorry to hear! RIP..
Sorry to hear.
Madden–Julian Oscillation to strengthen over Indian Ocean
The moderate to strong Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) that recently moved eastwards along the equator at Australian longitudes has weakened over the western Pacific this past week. It is now so weak that it is unlikely to still be influencing tropical weather.
Model forecasts indicate a slow moving MJO will strengthen in the tropical central or eastern Indian Ocean this week. While there is some uncertainty concerning its strength and speed, some models indicate a weak MJO will be over Australian longitudes during the last week of December moving eastwards into the west Pacific Ocean in early January.
When the MJO is located over the Indian Ocean at this time of year, as some models are indicating will be the case for the next fortnight, it increases the risk of tropical cyclone development in the region. Likewise, as the active MJO moves over Australian longitudes, it increases the chance of monsoonal rainfall over northern Australia as well as tropical cyclone development across the Australian region.
Northern Australia heats up
This past week has seen a rise in temperatures across northern Australia. A heat-low, an area of low pressure that forms over very warm land surfaces, has formed over central Australia. This weather pattern has increased westerly wind flow and temperatures across northern Australia and caused some rainfall over the Kimberley region. High temperatures are expected to continue for most of this week.
El Niño–Southern Oscillation nears El Niño thresholds
Oceanic indicators of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are hovering near El Niño thresholds; however, atmospheric indicators such as trade winds, cloudiness and rainfall have either remained near average or only temporarily approached thresholds. The latest NINO3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly is +0.9 °C. The latest Southern Oscillation Index value up to 14 December is –5.1.
Regardless of whether El Niño is declared, El Niño-like impacts are likely to continue. For Australia, this means a drier and warmer summer than normal is likely for many.
We have got green signals from GreenBee abd optimisticGreen for the rains…. here we go and expect GreenBee to come back to his original avatar…:)
Waiting eagerly!!
he himself said y’day, “it is time for me to come in my original name”, i think when chennai receives heavy rainfall he will re emerge in his original name.
There are many more to come out in their real original name
Earth on track for hottest year
——————————————————-
The world is still heading for the hottest year on record although last month was only the seventh warmest November since 1880, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said on Monday.
The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces during November tied with 2008 as the seventh highest for the month, at 0.65 degrees Celcius above the 20th century average, the NOAA said in its monthly report, according to Xinhua.
This ends a streak of three consecutive months with a record warm monthly global temperature, but the average temperatures for September-November as well as the first 11 months were still both the highest on record for such periods, it said.
If December is at least 0.42 degrees Celcius warmer than the 20th century average, 2014 will be the hottest year on record, the NOAA said.
http://www.thehindu.com/sci-tech/energy-and-environment/earth-on-track-for-hottest-year/article6696992.ece?homepage=true
The previous three warmest years on record are 2010, 2005 and 1998.
with more and more warm conditions, it increases the cyclone activity around the world and in turn more destructions.
earlier it was thought like tat but interestingly new agcm,ogcm models stimulation shows decrease in frequency of tropical cyclones all around the globe from 2020 to 2050.but the intensity is highly getting doubled.
agree, if we see in the recent typhoon activities in u.s and elsewhere the impact were high than all the previously known,
frequency may decline or rapidly rise. nature has to decide
Sat image update
Can we expect decent rains in Central Chennai tonight?
Looks promising.. I am even going to the extent of hoping for 100mm rain this time!!
it is very windy outside, any reasons?
@ kea
What happen about quiz contest, its Tuesday
Kaatta Durai ke kattam maaa
active equatorial waters with twin convergence zone on either sides of equ .. mjo may be arriving soon
Yep some Exciting days ahead
So according to you kumari kandam is a tropical wet zone
Who is Kumari? Your friend?
Kumari kandam means lost ancient part of tn
ok.. So then it is thannila kandam for kumari..lol!
Oh Looks very unusual in December ! It might become more prevalent in short distant future…
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navm.html?model=gem®ion=ind&pkg=mslp_uv850&runtime=2014121600&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=0
Cmc
http://m.moneycontrol.com/news/local-markets/sensex-breaks-27000-bank-nifty-down-450-pts-it-outperforms_1253706.html
This is the third consecutive day the market has fallen – incl. friday. – tough to predict – currency hedging also has
taken a beating – what about your silver portfolio have you made anything or on the negative ?
I already hinted a dip is there in December, but another dip in silver is around 20 Feb onwards
I know it is off track – but how do you say the date feb.20 ? Is it due to budget or otherwise? But
people who are in the market will not walk out – or give up it is an addiction like this blog .
Means final week of Feb onwards, dip meanings a plunging low from the recent highs, but 2015 will be a zig zag will no more top highs
Where is Birdman?
Track the rain falling across California: http://ow.ly/FXs9f
http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/12/20/2100Z/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-278.00,8.32,2048
earth null school shows 2 circulations..
Earth on track for hottest year – http://www.thehindu.com/sci-tech/energy-and-environment/earth-on-track-for-hottest-year/article6696992.ece?homepage=true
an article in today’s dinamalar says around 15 tmc water wasted from papanasam dam, on one hand we have to be at the mercy of raingod, and neighbor states for water, and in other hand we waste the same, will authorities build new dams to store precious water?
Migrate. Dont be at their mercy. you can dictate then
the geographical place of t.n, has made that we have to depend on others, though as per constitution all rivers are for all people of india, it is not the reality one.
forget tn wb etc . migrate to a place where it rains
Before building new dams the priority should be to desilt the existing ones. We had a chance when most of them were dry a couple of years back.
interlinking of rivers with in the state can also a be a solution, though it costs more, this way we can avoid wastage, like veeranam lake connected with chennai.
Kurudamannil records surprise heavy rains, Kerala rainfall ending 8.30 am on 15.12.2014
===========================================
The trough at mean sea level from southeast Arabian Sea to southwest Madhya Pradesh now runs from southeast Arabian Sea to north Madhya Maharashtra.
in mm (min 10 mm)
Kurudamannil – 111
Chengannur – 46
Mavelikkara – 39
Kollam – 36
Mananthavady – 35
Ambalavayal – 31
Vythiri – 29
Idamalayar – 17
Haripad – 15
Kuppady – 11
Kanjirappally – 10
Kozha – 10
Thariode – 10
Arabian sea system could ruin our BOB system heavily !
That is already moving west.. Probably it will move further away from us.. So do you think it can still damage our chances?
IMD predicts chances of thunderstorm for today and light rains for 17th & 18th. Thereafter partly cloudy,
Not very encouraging.
Had intermittent showers in the morning in periyapalayam. It’s now windy
Papanasam records 400 mm from this easterlies spell, TN rainfall ending 8.30 am on 15.12.2014
===========================================
The trough at mean sea level from southeast Arabian Sea to southwest Madhya Pradesh now runs from southeast Arabian Sea to north Madhya Maharashtra.
in mm (min 5 mm)
Papanasam Dam – 66
Lower Papanasam – 50
Ambasamudram – 27
Servalar – 25
Kannadiyan – 24
Ottapadiram – 23
Pandavaiyar Head – 23
Erode – 20
Needamangalam – 20
Sholayar Dam – 18
Parsons Valley – 17
Sathanur Dam – 15
Palayamkottai – 15
Mettur – 13
Ponnamaravathi – 13
Gudalur Bazar – 12
Kovilpatti – 12
Palladam – 12
Erumaipatti – 12
Arantangi – 10
Kayathar – 9
Nallur – 9
Tiruppatur (S) – 9
Lalgudi – 8
Dindigul – 8
Kodaikanal – 7
Veppanthattai – 7
Tirunelveli – 6
Manimutharu – 6
Alangulam – 6
Paramathi – 6
Upper Kodayar – 6
Tattayyangarpettai – 5
Eravangalar – 5
Polur – 5
Uttukkuli – 5
Kangayam – 5
Manachanallur – 5
Netherlands Becomes the First Country To Open A Solar Road For Public Use
http://auto.ndtv.com/news/netherlands-becomes-the-first-country-to-open-a-solar-road-for-public-use-713225?pfrom=home-auto
ECMWF latest run showing big circulation developing in SC BOB around 26th Dec.
the westerly burst along equator looks impressive.
ecmwf confirms s.bay system… it must intensify to gain latitude
gain latitude means where it will be cross?
v must wait for tat.. most december systems maintain lower latitude.
i have a t shirt that reads ECMWRF better than GFS.
lol
People cannot figure out what that means. I find when I go for morning walks wearing that tshirt everybody wants to know what that means. A great way to make friends especially the pretty ones 😉
pop ups in radar
Latest satellite picture…
active northeast surge in december!!similar kind of event hav already happened during dec 2006 elnino
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2008GL033429/abstract
When is it expected to rain today friends.
from today midnight…
Thanks Parthasri.
rain may be expected in coastal areas, and interiors for next 24 hrs, low has formed in s.w bob,
imd chennai mid day update to media
y.day sydney, today pak