604 thoughts on “Wait continues for revival of NEM in Chennai

  1. Latest ECMWF continues to take TY Hagupit in towards Philippines , LF close to Tacloban(LF area of TY “HAIYAN” , 2013), and in the further days , shows LF on the Vietnam coast , and later the remnants are last seen close to the northern most portions of Gulf of Siam(Thailand)
    Will this TY send the much needed pulse into Bay ???
    Answer remains uncertain ……:(:(

      • Looks like that.

        But sidr-2007 happened in -QBO yr, but with SOI greater than +10. Not expecting that SOI (even IOD forecasted to go -ve) will to become too +ve during this December.

        So in conclusion we can not expect strong systems likecat.1 or above, but can expect only weak systems like minimal cyclone/D/DD.

      • Ok. Will Hagupit remnant enter BOB. As per latest ecmwf, hagupit targeting central vietnam instead of extreme south.

      • too bad. As QBO & IOD parameters fixed (we know their outcome), now SOI will influence its fate at BOB.

      • I am expecting SOI to come to the rescue of TN. Look at the strong easterlies coming from the south china sea in the diagram posted by Goku.

      • Even arctic forum expecting sudden burst in easterlies from east-pacific region.

        In that case minimal D/DD/minimal cyclone is guaranteed if the pulse survives at BOB. So hope for the best.

      • Also if Hagupit take GFS path( travelling in NNE direction). Will BOB will be able to throw a pulse on its own..?

      • Without increase in SOI, IOD or QBO (that too in the absence of MJO), we can not expect BOB to throw a pulse.

        Regular easterly rains may occur if SOI increases. Otherwise those also very difficult 😦

  2. If Hagupit sneaks into gulf of thailand n andaman sea, we can expect easterlies…no major system possible until 15th dec.

  3. NEM winds are enemy no.1 this Nov. and Dec. which spoiled our rain chances by pushing the plum easterlies towards south

  4. Let’s welcome back winter. Looks like NEM has no chance of a revival, even if a system comes we will get minimum(<50 mm) rains from it

    • There is always a NEM 15 to look forward to. But before that some dry weather, then a long summer, then a SWM.

      Still lots of things ahead for us. Only 10 more months for next NEM

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  6. Latest JTWC forecasts Hagupit to have peak intensity at around 170 knots , that is almost 315 kmph ,sustained winds …
    “Can’t imagine what Tacloban’s residents would be doing with this …..:(:(“

    • I’ve heard of some , but they haven’t got it on the recorded history ..
      The most strongest in the past have been the products of Western Pacific

      • till yesterday it was said to be Cat 4 and when nearing Philippines it will weaken to Cat 2, but today all the way long the prediction is Cat 5 till Philippines, so there is a good chance to pulp in more stronger easterlies towards bay of bengal…

      • With this rapid intensification , it is difficult to predict , and for those remnants , we may have wait for a while

    • Still ECMWF is not expecting that weakness in ridge to change steering and shift north ,,,It expects another ridge from China taking the lead role after 2 days , and that time as per ECMWF , it would be entering the SSE periphery of the new ridge , and take a westward course , but I ll wait for the latest ECMWF …
      Must not have a change I guess

      • the steering winds are forecasted to be changing to South Westerly, hence it may push the system once it nears the land towards N and then make it weaken as it has to face strong dry air and VWS around 100 knots north of STR at around 21N.

      • This would be a real competitive scenario among the models , let us see who wins this situation ,,,,
        Hope ECMWF takes it on this time too……………..

  7. GSLV Mark III faces its first experimental flight – The Hindu

    Later this month, the Geosynchronous Satellite Launch Vehicle (GSLV) Mark III is expected to lift off for the first time from India’s spaceport at Sriharikota on an experimental flight that will assess the rocket’s performance as it hurtles through the atmosphere to reach speeds many times that of sound. When operational, the GSLV Mark III will be the Indian Space Research Organisation’s most powerful rocket, capable of putting four-tonne communication satellites into orbit, almost double the capacity of the current GSLV. The Mark III will weigh about 640 tonnes at launch, about 50 per cent heavier than the GSLV.

    Should India decide to send astronauts into space, this will be the rocket that carries them. So it is perhaps appropriate that the
    forthcoming launch will also provide an early test of a crew module that is being developed….http://www.thehindu.com/sci-tech/science/gslv-mark-iii-faces-its-first-experimental-flight/article6658873.ece?homepage=true

  8. our rain chances are diminishing day by day because why i am saying is as day progress winter will strengthen which will create a tough situation for rains

  9. this is the first time where i am seeing a quite bay of bengal in my life time not even a depression in BOB favourable month november so sad to see

  10. Ther is some alteration happened ,now the ridge axis is close to the system. Ecmwf sticking with westerly track as another ridge taking over .. gfs moving it along the current influencing ridge till the end.

      • Till 08th it has very good chance to match haiyan speed…
        It has strong steering winds, which will also increase the speed of the movement..
        If the moving speed increases, then hagupit can reach Philippines before scheduled date and then it can cross the coast with high intensity.

  11. ACC from 21N shifts down from 07th onwards, this will influence the movement of Hagupit, this may be the hindrance for Hagupit to cross the coast of Philippines.

    When nearing the coast this could make the system move north for a small time.

  12. GSAT16 to be launched from French Guiana http:

    http://www.thehindu.com/sci-tech/technology/gsat16-to-be-launched-from-french-guiana/article6659758.ece

    GSAT-16, the communications satellite being put in orbit for ISRO from French Guiana in the wee hours of Friday, December 5, will significantly improve the national space capacity with 48 transponders. The addition is important as GSAT-16 comes 11 months after the last Indian communication satellite GSAT-14 was flown in January this year. In fact, this launch was advanced by
    about six months to meet user needs, ISRO Chairman, K.Radhakrishnan, noted ahead of the launch.

    This is also the highest number of transponders packed into an Indian spacecraft so far.

  13. GTS,

    I was hinting this early LF of system just 40 minutes back to selvan, if it is early landfall then it is good to the system and also for us in Bay. If it has delayed till 09th, then the ACC would have started dominating the space over west pacific and spoiled the system.

    The suddend change in early LF, is due to strengthening of steering winds, so this is going to benefit us in Bay also.
    This system may make another LF over Gulf of Thailand by 11th.

    parthasri35, Rajakilpakkam Selvan Fun • 39 minutes ago
    Till 08th it has very good chance to match haiyan speed…
    It has strong steering winds, which will also increase the speed of the movement..
    If the moving speed increases, then hagupit can reach Philippines before scheduled date and then it can cross the coast with high intensity.

  14. I will surely visit Philippines in the coming years, especially to see monster typhoon, I am not kidding, gts you too can join

  15. IMD declares a low pressure with an upper air cyclonic circulation at 5.1 KMS prevails over south andaman sea. looks like moving west and start impacting TN coast within 2 days.
    ss

  16. I think hagupit wil make landfal in phil and enter the bob and intensify the cat2 cyclone and make landfall near chennai it bcms true the cyclone name is ash or kom or chap????:-P

    • lol many not sure even about the LF area in Philippines but you are thinking it will enter BOB and hit chennai.

  17. This hurricane at Phillipines actually gives a great breathing for bay to develop easterlies soon as already a low is taking place in south andaman sea. There will be 2 systems in bay of bengal back and forth within few days.

    by saturday chennai & pockets of tamil nadu we can see a total change in weather conditions. we can expect a long wet spell.

    ss

  18. well this could be true. I see that NUllSchool perdiction also show good easterlies by weekend and the influence of the dry air from North is getting reduced. Lets hope for some good period after that

    • GTS it is between GFS and ECMWF.

      GFS update at 06.00AM will confirm on Hagupit latest trend, whether GFS follows ECMWF or it has its own prediction.
      GFS were saying that there is no LF and showing as fast weakening when nearing the coast on 09th, that created doubt in my mind, but ECMWF was saying LF by 07th itself and crossing the coast, hence i feel that GFS will update in line with ECMWF today afternoon.

  19. The trough of low at mean sea level over Gulf of Siam now lies over south Andaman Sea and adjoining

    Tenasserim coast. Associate upper air cyclonic circulation extends upto 5.8 km above mean sea level.

    source..imd

  20. Observation:

    TN has another chance after 18th, there is going to be a system formation in west pacific by 14th or 15th, this will move towards bay of bengal by 19th, we might has precipitation chance from 20th, will it develop into a cyclone, that is the question as of now.
    Lets wait and see…

  21. Excellent poleward and near radial outflow , along with VWS at just 10 knots ….

    Can never get better than this ………..

  22. oru nambikaila solita manithukolungal arputhamana seithi enavenral oru kuraintha katralutha thalvu nilai then andhaman aruge nilai kondulatham idhanal varugira natkalil mazhai puliumam adhu unmaiya guru deva??:-P

    • its just a trough of low so its chances for developing into LPA is less only but wait for next week some action is awaiting just like your vijay style “i am waiting” says ashoba a very severe cyclonic storm

  23. back to back system in pacific ocean lets see which gets materialize in bay i think hagupit going to enhance the easterlies there by creating a platform for the system to develop in bay lets see what happens

  24. Lower level convergence max. around 60 in the SE quadrant …
    Upper divergence max. at 30 covering the entire western quadrant …..

  25. Hoping the Typhoon near philipines steer the easterlies and trough of low to TN coast in the next few days.. We need a big spell for dec.. Dry air is still a concern

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