Rains could be back as early as next week and there could be a strong system in 2nd week of December. We need to wait and see for things to develop.
Rains could be back as early as next week and there could be a strong system in 2nd week of December. We need to wait and see for things to develop.
KeaWeather Archives 
Combined storage as on 31 12 2013 was 330pm ft of chennai reservoir
Combined storage as on 31122103 was 3377 m ft of the chennai reservoir
Maybe from tomorrow I will push the new topic to noon time
You are yet to publish last week’s quiz results..
my fault, should be published soon
Hi rare susa
rare ?
Yes, you not frequent that much as you were in the earlier days
lol, yes
Not a prob. Jus wanted to know if i missed it.
what quiz?
Weekly quiz..
oh forum quiz? got it..
Chk in converse
The difference between 2005 &2014 is SOI. All other 3 components MJO+IOD+QBO are same. The difference between 1977AP cyclone and 92B is QBO all other 3 parameters are same.
What’s your take on the Parallel GFS run. Will it come true.
Unless either of SOI or QBO turns neutral we can not expect anything. QBO change is very slow phenomenon on monthly variation index. So hope SOI value will increase for future BOB pulses benefit.
What is the expected scenario in the next two weeks in case of soi, mjo , iod, qbo etc?
In general QBO will change very slowly and moreover its monthly index. But expecting QBO will be increasing from this December dut MJO’s persistent amplitude around 2. Moreover SOI forecasted to increase towards neutral values. Overall we can expect some good change in terms of rainfall from this December onwards.
But mjo is in phase 4 now .How long will it stay in phase 4?
It’s moving at very rapid pace. It won’t stay there for long time.
Which phases are good for our bay systems?
Phases 2,3,4,5 will be too good. Not this means phases 6/8 won’t support. Some pulses turned to cyclones in BOB with phase 6 or 8. But MJO phase 7 rarely supports BOB pulses.
If qbo would have been the same, we would have got the same cyclone with the same landfall?
200% guaranteed due to MJO’s powerful amplitude.
Ok fine
Current is 2869 mc ft
As of now we are getting water on alternate days – wonder what will happen if NEM fails ?
Cold is reduced in chennai, when compared with yesterday
Because today sun came out and did it’s duty.
Lol
Very much thats true, rame logging into blog after long time
Haha. Nothing like it
Overall I learned a lesson that -QBO years are little dangerous unless there is no good support from MJO+SOI+IOD.
Rao when can we expect next System or disturbance?
December 1st week not guaranteed. We can expect some change form 2nd week if SOI starts increasing.
any chances for soi to increase??
Expecting it to increase from 2nd week.
oh okay cfs model expects a strong system in bay on dec 3rd week
Oh okay So increase in SOI will be helpful for disturbance to emerge in bay?
yea pradeep.
it will help the system to stay intact and intensify.
Kea, sorry for the delay, please check ur mail
Got it
Some dry weather for next 2 days and hopefully the coming easterly wave must pound for north tamilnadu especially north of pondy as like south tamilnadu got a week ago from easterly wave.
As per AWS/ARG data none of the places still not even crossed 10mm today.
@Kea, missed one tiny info, mailed it again
Switch happens around this time and when it takes place BOB become super active. Massive easterly waves forecasted by parallel GFS around 15th Dec may be the result of switch happening.
2005 is -ve QBO, -ve IOD yr with good MJO activity like 2014. But what went wrong in 2014. It’s due to persistent -ve SOI values in 2014. But in 2005 this SOI freely oscillated between -8 to +8 (Neutral). So we can see very good tropical activity. But intrestingly all cyclones in 2005 stayed as minimal cyclones due to the -QBO. No single cyclone intensified to VSCS in 2005. 2005 BOB tropical activity:http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005_North_Indian_Ocean_cyclone_season#/image/File:2005_North_Indian_Ocean_cyclone_season_summary.jpg
Dense cloud mass over central tamilnadu and karaikal to vedaranyam getting pounded.
Here it is cloudy Mouli. It may rain later tonight.
Yes good chance of rain over south tamilnadu much of moisture and convergence taking place.
92B outcome: Decrease in SOI doesn’t support any BOB convection to grow into powerful cyclone. We had seen this phenomenon one more time in case of 92B. But rainfall occurred over SL/STN according to MJSOI-1 model.
There is some confidence in this topic,
Finally kea is on some positive note about rains
That is a matter of great concern
Actually
but this year lets hope kea’s positive note brings us rain
May be this time, we win
let’s hope
Surely, or else we will grab it
If any rain to come, it has to be after 9th, when mjo moves away from phase 6.
Rainfall so far in mm
———————–
Thiruvonam – 35
Pattukottai – 27.7
Madukkur – 22
Muthupettai – 18.5
Gandarvakottai – 14.5
Ponnamaravathi – 12.5
Orathanadu – 10
Kunnandarkoil – 9
Pudukottai – 9
Thiruvalankulam – 8.5
manamelkudi – 7.5
Thirumayam – 6.5
Tiruvadanai – 5.1
Arimalam – 4.5
Not Big Numbers Moderate Numbers Going Good!!!
Is Chennai’s Failures Of NEM Due To Global Warming???
PLS Reply
It’s hard to link global warming to our NEM failure without any proper research in that.
It seems only way to experience rain is to travel where it actually raining.
Or have this schedule
May to mid August -> Mawsynram
August to November -> Vietnam
November to April -> Singapore/Malaysia
or permanently settle in Indonesia to experience Typhoons
athuku Manila/Okinawa
Cyclones are rare in indonesia.Java which possibly has 70% of the Indonesian population rarely gets a cyclone.But Rains occur 8 months a year with rigor and the balance 4 months are dry with occasional TS in the evenings
Most cyclones go to Flores..close to Australia..have seen a Cyclone iggy near Bali/west java
Indonesia too. It rains very heavily especially during January . Sept to April is rainy season.
I have traveled all the three places . But Sikkim is damn beautiful esp monsoon Season . We can experience all kind of weather on there! 😀
https://in.lifestyle.yahoo.com/photos/images-monsoon-moods-in-gangtok-sikkim-slideshow/monsoon-in-gangtok-photo-1341988274.html
amazing pictures…good work!
Hey guys please see our beloved TS season i.e. SW monsoon.. When intense to very intense TS strikes chennai!!
Ameen you should have seen June 6th 2011 radar image.
I don’t have please post here what happened that day
developing typhoon hagupit meaning thrashing in Filipino 🙂 http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/sailcharts/gfs/2014/12/07/pr06_asie_00-2014120100.gif
sat image update
Please anybody tell in which year in june a cyclone dumped all the rains in chennai and went to andhra
1996
Hudhud shown regular complete west-ward track, which clearly an indication of -QBO (unlike phailin-2013, +ve QBO yr). If QBO was not there in 2014, then what could have been the final LF and intensity for Hudhud?
Sir please say in which year in june a cyclone dumped all the rains in chennai and went to andhra?? How much cm rains it dumped
less to moderate rain can expected upto 2 week of dec and after we can see some change i hope that that change will help chennai to get the rain because soi expected to increase but how far is increasing is noticeble one so we need to wait for 3 week of dec to have a change in gears of rain
Typhoon Hagupit moving in NW and then in NE direction is really good for us because it will not be able to trigger WWB which in turn result in breaking down of the el nino and making it easier for switch to happen and indirectly help in increase of soi or strengthening of easterlies. It should not move in WNW direction because then it will result in decrease of soi. So keep a eye on typhoon Hagupit track.
http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/
Yes i have track this one already.
In chennai many people are not aware of the amount of rain fall we have received and they beleive that lakes have got filled most of them feel further rainfall is determinent these are all due to the bad reporting by press by simply putting lakes and dams in TN mostly filled up and not revealing the full picture
Yes,You Are Correct!!!
Tropical storm Hagupit forecast video:
Look at the amount of dry air.
Chennai Is Just Touching Dry air Will The Dry air move
It will take some time until any disturbance forms in bay.
This year cyclones name starting with H seems to be successful ones
Cyclone are very less this year bro
what about HUDHUD it starts with H
Ur Saying In India I Thought All over the world
did i mention anywhere about india
What Happened To That Hagupit in Pacific Pls Reply???
Its not a typhoon yet. Tropical storm for the moment. Expected to strengthen to 100 knots and move NW. After 6th it may weaken and may move west towards philippines.
When it is expected to cross into the land ?
Not sure Rame… JTWC forecast track is only until 6th night.. They are expecting it to weaken before moving west.. But LF isnt projected as of now.. My feeling is that it would move towards phil by 11th as a minimal storm.
As guest11k posted below it should maintain north west track .
But jtwc is expecting a westward turn.
Better it dissipates in sea itself. No West movement.
But the track indicate nw movement
thank u
Jtwc latest REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 5.8N 150.0E.
TROPICAL STORM 22W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
011200Z IS 12 FEET.
Hi , you seemed you have changed your pic .nice pic
thankyou sir
More over this year cyclones are less and few elsewhere in the world
but last year phillipines faced cyclones after cyclones
This year is one of the hottest year in this year more people have died due to heat wave in russia
Yeah . I have seen the report about hottest year.
For Russians 30 degrees temperature may enough to die….hehe.
That 30 degree is pleasant for us .
lol
imagine what would have happened it had been 35 degree?
The Strong reason that’s why they didn’t dare to invade or colonize India…hehe
Oh may be . But British people with small population and cool climate than us dared and ruled India for more than 300 years and looted all our national resources and historic items like kohinoor diamond etc.
They made us follow their culture and language.
Great thing they did was developing hill stations in India which we are enjoying still in summer
what a pitty i feel sorry for them
How much rain we got from June 1996 cyclone?
Hi Amen .you can search it using Google or you can find with imd records
Hagupit typhoon track by jtwc
Hi i got it from Tamil nadu weather man, chennai Nugambakkam got 350 mm in 24 hrs on june 14 1996 cyclone !
Stronger easterlies are on the way….the only final hope for rains or a system…good thing is that direction of easterliesare are tilted north west..
Can easterlies extend till chennai to get rains??
Yes possible by looking at their strength and more importantly direction… Let’s wait and see..we may have strong low or a circulation.
sat image update-east coast
Guest11k,
If the forecasted Typhoon moves in NE-track (deviating from Philippines LF & S-China sea entry by W/NW track), then the present Kelvin wave won’t get any back-up kelvin wave (its already too late for this). So it will weaken. Consequently mechanism will be ready for Lanina-modoki/Lanina in 2015. Especially thinking Lanina-modoki to make both Indian ocean 9BOB) and Atlantic very active tropical season in 2015 🙂
but ECMWF expecting it to move in Westward direction whereas GFS expecting it move in N/NE after coming close to Philippines. System moving in WNW direction is not good for us.
Will West movement not send pulse to Bay of Bengal?
It can. We have to wait and see.
Still all possible
But jtwc track indicates nw .
sat image update full disck
circulation seen over srilanka, earth null also shows the same
hi guys
if the system move westwards is good for us
Australia has hottest spring on record as temperatures soar
Any connection between Australian record November and our November failure
Hi sir
Hello
I saw you in Hindu paper you were holding AWS….!
That is last year article
Yes
Post that picture here
Its good for us. Record warming in Australia will result in warming of SST around Australia which results in La nina like conditions and will help in preventing el nino like conditions which we are having currently. That’s why we may see good rainfall in second week of December. It will help in reviving of our NEM. Massive easterlies which models forecasting to happen around 18th dec is related to record warming of Australia.
Super. Good news for us
actually SST around Australia should be more than SST around Madagascar for better NEM-rains. this nothing bur sub-tropical negative IOD, which will benefit to NEM-rains indirectly.
Any how some last stage revival is possible ? Hopefully it should do it as swm did in September.
omg last seven minutes no comment
U Are Saying For 7 Mins Yesterday No Comments For more than 25mins
Once the strong easterlies reach chennai then comments rate would be around 40 comments /min!
Will It Reach???
Sure
Good!!! 1964 was a bounty golden for chennai 2cyclones,1 depression,3 LPA super la!!!
Yes ok bye i have Tamil test tomorrow i have to prepare
Ok All The Best!!!!!!!
All the best.
come to blog in feb, mar u will find 7 comments per day..
Why February even January we can see comments less than 50?
any chance the system move westward direction any one pls ans my question?:-P
Guest11k,
I will go with GFS’s N/NE track by looking its cross-section, which has more W/SW-winds (strong cross-equatorial winds caused by MJO) than NE-winds. This strong component in W/SW-winds will drive the typhoon in N/NE direction.
Will this help us ?
What about ECMWF forecast. It is the best performing model from past few months.
Then we can be sure of La nina modoki or la nina like conditions next year which means very active BOB.
When??
The second half of December
Oh Superb
Scroll down the below posts by guest11k
Typhoon Hagupit moving in NW and then in NE direction is really good for us because it will not be able to trigger WWB which in turn result in breaking down of the el nino and making it easier for switch to happen and indirectly helping in increase of soi or strengthening of easterlies. It should not move in WNW direction because then it will result in decrease of soi. So keep a eye on typhoon Hagupit track.
sat image update
Raining continuously for the past one hour
enjoy the rains
sat image update -west coast
The rest of the NEM rainfall forecast doesn’t look good for north TN. The easterlies would only benefit south TN and Sri Lanka.
Let us hope that the forecasts would go wrong this time too!
Enna Anna Ivlo Periya Gunda Poduringa why???
Maximum 50mm possible for Chennai
I think you have not included the possibility of switch( breaking down of el ninos during dec and jan) happening in your forecast. Whenever switch happens BOB becomes active. Also sudden stratospheric warming(SSW) will be occuring during late dec and early jan period. It triggers a strong mjo pulse. Models started to signs of it. Massive easterlies developing in BOB around 15th dec.
Not included, I need to spend time to check and analyze the same…
Atmosphere cannot remain el nino forever. Someday it has to breakdown and generally this happens during late dec and jan period. This switching of atmosphere results in active conditions in BOB.
Definetly This December will remember life long….
No Vela, This December is very Pleasant and we can expect more than 200 mm
weather quote
Everything is going according to the script:
See the massive easterlies developing around 15th December.
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=360&image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_asia_360_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=asia¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141201+12+UTC&imageSize=&ps=area
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=384&image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_asia_384_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=asia¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141201+12+UTC&imageSize=&ps=area
Nagapattinam enjoying good spell from evening..
Looks Promising:
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=384&image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_asia_384_850_vort_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=asia¶m=850_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141201+12+UTC&imageSize=&ps=area
NASA Satellites Provide Triple Coverage on Tropical Storm Sinlaku
Tropical Storm Sinlaku made landfall in east-central Vietnam bringing some moderate to heavy rainfall with it. NASA and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency’s TRMM and GPM satellites analyzed the rainfall rates occurring in Sinlaku before it made landfall while NASA’s Terra satellite spotted the storm as it came ashore in Vietnam.
Tropical Storm Sinlaku formed on November 26, 2014 over the southeastern Philippines. As a tropical depression Sinlaku caused flooding in areas of the Visayas and Mindanao…
http://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/Sinlaku-northwest-pacific/
any update from agri university forecast for december… in the last six or seven incidents they came very close in predictions. ..
I have posted today morning
they are like our vela sir… whatever the models promise stick to their own inferences and also end prove that is correct
in may the average comment in a day pls rply????
SOI
horrible to see it! 😦
Precipitation Outlook.
http://www.monsoondata.org/wx2/prec.html
Nothing much happening favouring us
Hi Jeetu..how is your MBA? 😀
Midnite bloggers association is always gud.. Lol
Yes, without rains, its going very dull
Going good, waiting for our chancellor gts entry
No Keatured comment today? 😛
U want another controversy?
lol your ramarajan fight scene should have kept as featured comment atleast by today.It explained our past 3 years NEM wonderfully.
Then start talking about aliens
Saw in news that price of ur fuel has got decreased 😀
Does this mean somethin to jeetu? 😉
Big issue, blog will erupt from no where
Haha…. 😉
Ask a hint from odm
Then, I might have more litres in store
Ayayo..ellarum odunga
I have kept it for aliens, waiting for your signal
Hi Partners :):)
Hi Gts
Hi buddy 🙂
Welcome bro
Thank u bro …
Gts… I wil b in manila from 12-14… I am badly in need of a super typhoon 😉
Is it ??
Ingadhan onnum varala.. Angayavadhu poyi parkalame…
ha ha ,,,,I ll join u next year
Gts are you going to manila next year
lol ….I ll try to go Okinawa
Why just tour ah?
Super typhoon research
Must be true
Manila is famous for dog meat
Ji… I am veggie ;(
So try some bajji ;;;;
Kedacha try panlam
I said the truth, its ok
Super 🙂
He will
12-14 means
3 days this month jeetu
Only for 3 days? Fine
One day official work… 2 days vacation..
Periya aalunga neenga
Ada ponga boss… Meeting 3 hrs.. Travel to and fro 22 hrs…
Is it, then if you have odm by side, then you won’t feel any stress
Odm peraya solla maataru.. Apram enga side la nerla ellam varadhu?
Anand’nu vechukonga 😀
I know its not an and 100%, are you working in pwd department
PLM project Jeetu
dash workin in IT company ah?
Porur Lake Maintenance project
Hmm ithu PJ anna oda vela mari iruke
He is done adyar park project and now doing Some other projects with state government
Nalla vela, Dash PJ anna my junior in this project nu sollala 😛
Got it
Then you might know PJ very well, you both are sailing in a same boat
Opening nalla iruku boss aana finishing seri illaye
Wait he will organise a cricket match in the upcoming kea meet
Inga irundhe vc’la pannidalam 😀
Million dollar transactions might happen, so he has to sign
Doller ah? 30 rs kudutha 3 days kan muzhuchi vela parpen.. 😉
Just kidding bro
Lol i know 😉
Parraaaa….. 😀
It is very cold , clear skies , starry night, calm ..brings back the memory of windless and ghostly silent out there …………
Hello Paraman…. 🙂
Avaro poloman ivaru paraman 🙂
why the name polomon for selayya?
Solomon pappaiya…. Polomon sellaiya..
LOL Solomon pappaiya ean pa inga ezukaringa, avare paavam 80 years la inniku naalaiku nu irukaru
Ellam dash seyal
Something should be similar with him and selva
Yeah Hello dashman ……!!! sorry partner …
He he, unseasonal cold this time
January type silent in air ……..
Yes, normally its should happen around 20th
Hmm…. enjoy preponded winter bro ………Early thought of extending monsoon ..:(
It is not good for our nem right?
Not like that ,,,Thane came after a similar calm …this is common
But chances are getting tight from now on
Trust In GOD !!!
Keatured comment illama oru maadhri iruku partner..wat do u feel? 😀
I am seeing this word keatured from yesterday……..nakals ???
I have bn using it from last week partner
Oh ok ok , noticed it very recently
Can u guess y it’s cald Keatured 😛
Sathiyama ennaku puriyala pa…
‘kea’tured…. He made his post featured by himself… So it became keatured..:)
Rightly said, it hast to be named as keatured comment
We ll have one only after 2 weeks
well nice topic.. Just now entering!!
Soo dry for blog ntng to worry.sweet pain in waiting..T_T.
Waiting for ecmwf next run coming shrtly..hoply they show wml…
When
12:30
I didn’t ask about update timing, i am asking about next system
Jeetu expecting our self only sinlanku remmants
Will it sustain
Noo nthng favourble
Iam saying hope just not a cnfrm
Ecmwf 72 hours..
Ecmwf 96 hrs
Liittle hope in this.but bob only take it itself and manage.pacfic system send pulse.bob only can do intense this..wait what will happens
Let’s wait and see then, what do you think
All time hero !!!!!!!
Hudhud ah
yes
Super
Super…
BREAKING NEWS:
Just now POAMA( long range model of BOM which has been performing exceptionally well from past two years) latest output came out and it confirms of switch happening next year( Rami was expecting it to happen). So el nino like conditions will start to break down and la nina like conditions will start to develop in coming months.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/poama2.4/poama.shtml
Models( Parallel GFS and GFS) consistently showing massive easterly wave building in BOB around 15th December and this may be because of the switch happening( breaking down of el ninos). It makes BOB super active.
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=gfs25&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=276&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=
NEM will extend to January because of this switching phenomena and may give good rainfall to TN.
Congratulations Rami for getting it right.
Guest 11k, is there any much difference between parallel gfs vs gfs
Parallel GFS will become the official GFS from December.
Is it, then no more gfs
It will be there. We can say that parallel gfs is the updated version of gfs.
Fine
Great news
Rami congrats, you are spot on this time
Great rami but plz explain how this will help north TN/south AP when ridges comes down by around dec 3rd week
Ridge will move northward due to increase in both SOI and QBO values.
Yes. Both GFS and ECMWF showing ridge moving northwards in coming weeks.
thats great news then..intha christmas/newyear/pongal monsoon treat thaan
Absolutely good news
Yes good question
So next year we will have la nina like conditions which means super active bay.
2008 is la nina condition right when cyclone nisha hit TN..but whats the la nina value when nisha crossed TN and what will be the value by dec 3rd week
January 2005 has 2 tropical systems, though not crossed the coast anywhere. Hope BOB will throw 2 more systems before NEM-2014 winds completely sign-off from the peninsula
Look at this massive easterly wave developing in bay around 15th dec. This indicates switch has begun.
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=gfs25&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=324&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=
Yes ridge is also moved little north
Looks scary.
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=gfs25&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=336&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=
Looks good.
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=gfs25&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=360&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=gfs25&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=
guest11k – posting very positive news which will enthu bloggers here..let see what vela says who predicted 50mm..
Vela told me that he has not considered switching( breaking down of el ninos during dec and jan period) in his forecast.
one fear gone..:) another fear kea predicted 25mm
Ridge will move northwards.
Pacific system close to gulf of thailand
I hope its sends a pulse to our bay
This year totaly for watching into bobT_T
Rao/Guest11k-2008 is la nina condition right when cyclone nisha hit TN..but whats the la nina value when nisha crossed TN and what will be the value by dec 3rd week during switch over
Nisha type cyclone not possible in 2014 as SOI is too +ve around +10 at that time.
ok..fine..thanks
ECMWF looks good ….
What’s your thoughts on the switch phenomena( breaking down of el nino during dec and jan) which may happen in coming weeks.
I haven’t looked into it , I ll look into that and give my views
Ok.
So, good to see a lot of positive comments towards revival of NEM this week end. Hope to have a good end as the start to this NEM.
any system confirmed for next week
Synoptic Chart
http://www.tmd.go.th/programs/uploads/maps/2014-12-02_TopChart_01.jpg
Cola
Satellite image
Latest GFS Parallel has removed all the rains for CHENNAI…. Check both the image and find 7 differences…
this is for dec 6th no problem..not expecting rain until 2nd week of dec but expecting good rains from 3rd week
Climate change poses deadly threat to elderly thkpr.gs/3597687
1,400 flood defence projects in England to receive funding bit.ly/1vdYpY9
3days back….. Temperatures in Canada hit minus 41 F at Old Crow, Yukon, and at Deadman Valley and Lindberg Landing, N.W.T.
yes true last week-end very horrible..Canada govt advised people to have full protection to avoid frostbite..today its fine in Calgary ,down to -12 minimum..by Thursday max 3,min -6..good
Just watched this video and amazed how la nina conditions affects the great barrier reef and its influence for severe thunderstorms to cross great divide range to produce heavy rainfall thereby changing the victoria desert-look to sea-look in great artesian basin..
AccuWeather predicting rains form 9th…..
@guest11k:disqus
I was seeing the Poama model and it still forecasts mild Elnino for dec and Jan.Kindly share other forecasts which show Lanina.
What is looking better is the IOD which came down to 0.07 by 23rd Nov and is now at 0.15..but this is much better than an average of 0.5 which was in Nov.
gud mrng guys
gud morning..
in december 2nd week howmany member wants cyclone or afull filled rainy system is low or a depression ?
Record dry conditions in Australia might b attributed to prevailing elnino like conditions and positive iod..these two often brings down the rainfall in and around Australia. And tis image clearly depicts the current conditions where south tn falling under above average rainfall and dry conditions in Australia http://ccafs.cgiar.org/sites/default/files/images/el%20nino(2).png
NZ bowled 1135 balls in 3rd
test match , Not even a single
bouncer
–>Took all 20 wickets , Did not even celebrate a single wicket
–> Williamson didn’t celebrate his 50,100 & 150
–> Mccullum didn’t celebrate
his 50,100,150 & 200
–> Mccullum Dedicated his
double ton to Hughes
–> Played with jersey written ‘P.H’ on it This Team has won million hearts as well as Test match Everybody should respect this
wonderful team!
wonderful..
Respect
NZ is always a Great Team, In terms of giving respect to Players….
NZ bowled bouncers..Pakistan ‘s shafiq hit one of the bouncers by fast bowler boult for a six..
They actually bowled 2 bouncers… But its 0.001% of the total balls bowled.. So it is negligible.. And ofcourse a splendid gesture..
@guest11k warming waters around Australia never brings lanina conditions.. I saw your posts saying some turn around happening bcos of Australian waters warming .. warming western Pacific and so subsequent warming around s.east Indian ocean adjoining equatorial waters,Timor sea is the sign of lanina conditions.. Australian waters warming is normal as they go through monsoon phase from December .I don’t think it could help in bringing lanina as the vice versa helps.. if there is any interesting link between them, pls do let me know
Australian summers if I am right is getting hotter and hotter year on year.
Yeah exactly,each n every year we hear tat story..
@Selva– Yes,Poama also supports the continuance of Mild Elnino in Dec and Jan
Gopal,
Already kelvin wave is present at the sub-surface level around the central pacific ocean near date line. It may take 2-3 months for it completely surfacing at east-pacific ocean.
Elnino/Elnino-like phenomenon won’t subside immediately. Its very slow process.
As low pressure takes hold over the Australia because of the record warming, this will make SOI commence its positive stretch, and lead to massive easterlies in coming weeks.( Parallel GFS and GFS showing massive easterlies around 15th dec). So record warming of Australia indirectly helped in reviving of our NEM. It also gives sign that next year will not be el nino. It will either be neutral or weak la nina.
Easterlies r always part of nem..Infact v had strong easterlies during mid November lashing most parts of s.tn irrespective of the climate around Australia…
Yes easterlies were there then why NTN did not get meaningful rainfall in Nov it is because easterlies were weak in strength( 92B could not able to intensify because of weak easterlies). So record warming of Australia will lead to increase in sst around it. This will make soi to increase which means strengthening of easterlies in coming weeks. Also increase in sst around north Australia gives a sign that el nino will not develop next year and neutral or weak la nina will commence next year.
Any pulse coming with band??? 🙂
Band has become pulse..
You will get a chance to say band coming band coming
IST 8.30am
Snow and ice is forecast to develop in Virginia on Tuesday and to spread northward at night. http://ow.ly/Fc4Xc
Scenario 1:
Forecasted west-pacific “super typhoon Hagupit” will follow any one of the following 2 tracks of 2004’s late season’s super typhoons? Both GFS & ECMWF showing different tracks.
Scenario 2:
or will it weaken after coming close to Philippines and transfer its energy to s-china pulse, which further grow into big system that can travel directly towards BOB?
Lets wait and see.
(1) Typhoon Muifa (Unding) [November 14-26, 2004]: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Pacific_typhoon_season#mediaviewer/File:Muifa_2004_track.png
(2) super typhoon Nanmadol (Yoyong) [November 28-december 4]: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/01/Nanmadol_2004_track.png
Oil price crash proves renewables are future – UN climate chief: NEWS: Volatility of crude prices demonstrates… http://bit.ly/1yEtYLt
Vela, oil/gold price crash is temporary phenomenon, it can’t be for long run.
It may be the start of Renewable Energy…