856 thoughts on “Some hope for Chennai this December

  1. The difference between 2005 &2014 is SOI. All other 3 components MJO+IOD+QBO are same. The difference between 1977AP cyclone and 92B is QBO all other 3 parameters are same.

  2. Some dry weather for next 2 days and hopefully the coming easterly wave must pound for north tamilnadu especially north of pondy as like south tamilnadu got a week ago from easterly wave.

  3. Switch happens around this time and when it takes place BOB become super active. Massive easterly waves forecasted by parallel GFS around 15th Dec may be the result of switch happening.

  4. 2005 is -ve QBO, -ve IOD yr with good MJO activity like 2014. But what went wrong in 2014. It’s due to persistent -ve SOI values in 2014. But in 2005 this SOI freely oscillated between -8 to +8 (Neutral). So we can see very good tropical activity. But intrestingly all cyclones in 2005 stayed as minimal cyclones due to the -QBO. No single cyclone intensified to VSCS in 2005. 2005 BOB tropical activity:http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005_North_Indian_Ocean_cyclone_season#/image/File:2005_North_Indian_Ocean_cyclone_season_summary.jpg

  5. 92B outcome: Decrease in SOI doesn’t support any BOB convection to grow into powerful cyclone. We had seen this phenomenon one more time in case of 92B. But rainfall occurred over SL/STN according to MJSOI-1 model.

  6. Rainfall so far in mm

    ———————–
    Thiruvonam – 35
    Pattukottai – 27.7
    Madukkur – 22
    Muthupettai – 18.5
    Gandarvakottai – 14.5
    Ponnamaravathi – 12.5
    Orathanadu – 10
    Kunnandarkoil – 9
    Pudukottai – 9
    Thiruvalankulam – 8.5
    manamelkudi – 7.5
    Thirumayam – 6.5
    Tiruvadanai – 5.1
    Arimalam – 4.5

  7. Hey guys please see our beloved TS season i.e. SW monsoon.. When intense to very intense TS strikes chennai!!

  8. Please anybody tell in which year in june a cyclone dumped all the rains in chennai and went to andhra

  9. Hudhud shown regular complete west-ward track, which clearly an indication of -QBO (unlike phailin-2013, +ve QBO yr). If QBO was not there in 2014, then what could have been the final LF and intensity for Hudhud?

    • Sir please say in which year in june a cyclone dumped all the rains in chennai and went to andhra?? How much cm rains it dumped

  10. less to moderate rain can expected upto 2 week of dec and after we can see some change i hope that that change will help chennai to get the rain because soi expected to increase but how far is increasing is noticeble one so we need to wait for 3 week of dec to have a change in gears of rain

  11. Typhoon Hagupit moving in NW and then in NE direction is really good for us because it will not be able to trigger WWB which in turn result in breaking down of the el nino and making it easier for switch to happen and indirectly help in increase of soi or strengthening of easterlies. It should not move in WNW direction because then it will result in decrease of soi. So keep a eye on typhoon Hagupit track.

    http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/

  12. In chennai many people are not aware of the amount of rain fall we have received and they beleive that lakes have got filled most of them feel further rainfall is determinent these are all due to the bad reporting by press by simply putting lakes and dams in TN mostly filled up and not revealing the full picture

  13. Hi i got it from Tamil nadu weather man, chennai Nugambakkam got 350 mm in 24 hrs on june 14 1996 cyclone !

  14. Stronger easterlies are on the way….the only final hope for rains or a system…good thing is that direction of easterliesare are tilted north west..

  15. Guest11k,

    If the forecasted Typhoon moves in NE-track (deviating from Philippines LF & S-China sea entry by W/NW track), then the present Kelvin wave won’t get any back-up kelvin wave (its already too late for this). So it will weaken. Consequently mechanism will be ready for Lanina-modoki/Lanina in 2015. Especially thinking Lanina-modoki to make both Indian ocean 9BOB) and Atlantic very active tropical season in 2015 🙂

  16. Australia has hottest spring on record as temperatures soar

    Any connection between Australian record November and our November failure

  17. Guest11k,

    I will go with GFS’s N/NE track by looking its cross-section, which has more W/SW-winds (strong cross-equatorial winds caused by MJO) than NE-winds. This strong component in W/SW-winds will drive the typhoon in N/NE direction.

  18. The rest of the NEM rainfall forecast doesn’t look good for north TN. The easterlies would only benefit south TN and Sri Lanka.

    Let us hope that the forecasts would go wrong this time too!

      • I think you have not included the possibility of switch( breaking down of el ninos during dec and jan) happening in your forecast. Whenever switch happens BOB becomes active. Also sudden stratospheric warming(SSW) will be occuring during late dec and early jan period. It triggers a strong mjo pulse. Models started to signs of it. Massive easterlies developing in BOB around 15th dec.

      • Atmosphere cannot remain el nino forever. Someday it has to breakdown and generally this happens during late dec and jan period. This switching of atmosphere results in active conditions in BOB.

  19. NASA Satellites Provide Triple Coverage on Tropical Storm Sinlaku
    Tropical Storm Sinlaku made landfall in east-central Vietnam bringing some moderate to heavy rainfall with it. NASA and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency’s TRMM and GPM satellites analyzed the rainfall rates occurring in Sinlaku before it made landfall while NASA’s Terra satellite spotted the storm as it came ashore in Vietnam.
    Tropical Storm Sinlaku formed on November 26, 2014 over the southeastern Philippines. As a tropical depression Sinlaku caused flooding in areas of the Visayas and Mindanao…
    http://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/Sinlaku-northwest-pacific/

  20. any update from agri university forecast for december… in the last six or seven incidents they came very close in predictions. ..

  21. they are like our vela sir… whatever the models promise stick to their own inferences and also end prove that is correct

  22. It is very cold , clear skies , starry night, calm ..brings back the memory of windless and ghostly silent out there …………

  23. BREAKING NEWS:

    Just now POAMA( long range model of BOM which has been performing exceptionally well from past two years) latest output came out and it confirms of switch happening next year( Rami was expecting it to happen). So el nino like conditions will start to break down and la nina like conditions will start to develop in coming months.

    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/poama2.4/poama.shtml

    Models( Parallel GFS and GFS) consistently showing massive easterly wave building in BOB around 15th December and this may be because of the switch happening( breaking down of el ninos). It makes BOB super active.

    http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=gfs25&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=276&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

    NEM will extend to January because of this switching phenomena and may give good rainfall to TN.

    Congratulations Rami for getting it right.

  24. Rao/Guest11k-2008 is la nina condition right when cyclone nisha hit TN..but whats the la nina value when nisha crossed TN and what will be the value by dec 3rd week during switch over

    • this is for dec 6th no problem..not expecting rain until 2nd week of dec but expecting good rains from 3rd week

    • yes true last week-end very horrible..Canada govt advised people to have full protection to avoid frostbite..today its fine in Calgary ,down to -12 minimum..by Thursday max 3,min -6..good

  25. Just watched this video and amazed how la nina conditions affects the great barrier reef and its influence for severe thunderstorms to cross great divide range to produce heavy rainfall thereby changing the victoria desert-look to sea-look in great artesian basin..

  26. @guest11k:disqus
    I was seeing the Poama model and it still forecasts mild Elnino for dec and Jan.Kindly share other forecasts which show Lanina.
    What is looking better is the IOD which came down to 0.07 by 23rd Nov and is now at 0.15..but this is much better than an average of 0.5 which was in Nov.

  27. NZ bowled 1135 balls in 3rd
    test match , Not even a single
    bouncer
    –>Took all 20 wickets , Did not even celebrate a single wicket
    –> Williamson didn’t celebrate his 50,100 & 150
    –> Mccullum didn’t celebrate
    his 50,100,150 & 200
    –> Mccullum Dedicated his
    double ton to Hughes
    –> Played with jersey written ‘P.H’ on it This Team has won million hearts as well as Test match Everybody should respect this
    wonderful team!

  28. @guest11k warming waters around Australia never brings lanina conditions.. I saw your posts saying some turn around happening bcos of Australian waters warming .. warming western Pacific and so subsequent warming around s.east Indian ocean adjoining equatorial waters,Timor sea is the sign of lanina conditions.. Australian waters warming is normal as they go through monsoon phase from December .I don’t think it could help in bringing lanina as the vice versa helps.. if there is any interesting link between them, pls do let me know

      • Gopal,
        Already kelvin wave is present at the sub-surface level around the central pacific ocean near date line. It may take 2-3 months for it completely surfacing at east-pacific ocean.

        Elnino/Elnino-like phenomenon won’t subside immediately. Its very slow process.

    • As low pressure takes hold over the Australia because of the record warming, this will make SOI commence its positive stretch, and lead to massive easterlies in coming weeks.( Parallel GFS and GFS showing massive easterlies around 15th dec). So record warming of Australia indirectly helped in reviving of our NEM. It also gives sign that next year will not be el nino. It will either be neutral or weak la nina.

      • Easterlies r always part of nem..Infact v had strong easterlies during mid November lashing most parts of s.tn irrespective of the climate around Australia…

      • Yes easterlies were there then why NTN did not get meaningful rainfall in Nov it is because easterlies were weak in strength( 92B could not able to intensify because of weak easterlies). So record warming of Australia will lead to increase in sst around it. This will make soi to increase which means strengthening of easterlies in coming weeks. Also increase in sst around north Australia gives a sign that el nino will not develop next year and neutral or weak la nina will commence next year.

  29. Scenario 1:
    Forecasted west-pacific “super typhoon Hagupit” will follow any one of the following 2 tracks of 2004’s late season’s super typhoons? Both GFS & ECMWF showing different tracks.

    Scenario 2:
    or will it weaken after coming close to Philippines and transfer its energy to s-china pulse, which further grow into big system that can travel directly towards BOB?

    Lets wait and see.

    (1) Typhoon Muifa (Unding) [November 14-26, 2004]: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Pacific_typhoon_season#mediaviewer/File:Muifa_2004_track.png

    (2) super typhoon Nanmadol (Yoyong) [November 28-december 4]: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/01/Nanmadol_2004_track.png

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