3rd driest November in recent times ends with 183 mm

keaweather 2014, KEA Blog, NEM-2014

One of the most disappointing November’s with 183 mm. Last rainfall recorded in Chennai was 15 days back and there is no signs of any revival of monsoon for Chennai. We all need to wait patiently for any rains. Our monsoon deficit is close to 100 mm now.

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760 thoughts on “3rd driest November in recent times ends with 183 mm”

  1. Always even in the past we have seen few NEM seasons where it rains heavily up to Pondicherry and chennai is dry. Once rain stops in those regions then spotlight changes to NTN and SAP. It has happened even in 2008 NEM and 2012 NEM.1

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  4. Till such time it rains we have take a break and enjoy the good weather – atleast – monsoon will take its own course.

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  8. One blessing in disguise is that we had a decent spell in SWM this year at least for Chennai – hope the NEM will not let us down
    as we still have 25 odd days to go.

    Reply

  10. Guest11k, This is what I am telling for the past 2 days that MJO with amplitude >2 will make -QBO to +ve QBO. Which is must for BOB to host power cyclone. Fundamentally I don’t know about their interlink.

    Reply

  11. All the pulses in 2014 becoming waste due to this-ve QBO. 2005 yr also -veQBO yr, but it has neutral SOI. But 2014 suffering due to -veSOI. MJO+SOI+IOD+QBO is quadruple equation to estimate the Monsoonal rainfalls/related systems in advance.

    Reply

      • Jeetu have u seen past NEM when it rains so heavily in STN and Pondicherry chennai is dry. Post these spells some system has evolved and NTN-SAP gets rains heavily. 2012 NEM it happened during diwali time pondicherry rained , STN rained but chennai did not however when Thane formed Chennai rained but STN was pretty dry.

      • During 2008 NIsha time NTN got more rains but STN less so in NEM as per past trends either of the two regions get rain first. If one region gets the other is dry and vice versa.

      • we have to wait for next system as it has always been a trend during NEM times that post rains easing out in STN/Pondicherry a system forms hits Chennai and NTN but leaves the rest of TN dry it has happened in NEM 2012.

  20. nxt rains may b 10 dayz away somwhere by 9th probably, sucessive dry day count may easily cross 20 days by then 😦

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  22. Actually, this November is wetter than 2013 November going by IMD records because all rains on 31st October this year were accounted into November

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  25. Studies conducted just before India’s independence confirmed that a few tornadoes occurred annually in India. I don’t know if they are specially documented now.

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    • now also tornadoes occurring between Orissa and Bangladesh every year around march to may/June.

      In Hindi they called as “kalabaisakhi”. In English they called nor’esters in India. Tornadoes are embedded in these kalabaisakhis/nor’esters (not only in India, its everywhere including in USA).

      Reply

      • Yes, kal baisakhi storms or nor easters as u say and also convective supercells. They occur every year, pity they go unnoticed

      • but tornadoes are forming within these nor’esters. I think 2014 also reported tornados from these nor’sters.

      • OMG….these are very powerful systems and dangerous too. I too like the cooling part of these Nor’esters in a hot and humid day in pre-summer/summer days.

      • Oh is it..this was a possibly a milder one..it dumped huge rains in just 90mins and the entire city was under water

  26. Susa, I am working on ur comment at the moment 🙂

    ur comment:
    Just wanted to let you know that even when SOI is deeply negative, we have received
    very heavy rains..

    Examples
    ————-
    1901
    1972
    1977
    1992
    1994
    1997
    2006 NEM start

    Reply

  28. No TS as of now but early morning rains are sure for pondy,cuddalore by 5am.
    Pondy to Nagapattinam has very good chance of rains.

    Reply

  30. Check out the surface pressure graph of Tahiti
    http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=-17.650919,-149.426041&cm_ven=googleonebox

    Darwin surface pressure graph
    http://www.wunderground.com/q/zmw:00000.1.94120

    Now if we compare both the surface pressure graph, we can conclude that Tahiti pressure will be higher than Darwin beginning from day after tomorrow which means soi will consistently increase from 2nd. Increase in soi indicates strengthening of easterlies.

    This is the way we can forecast soi or strength of easterlies.

    Reply

  31. For Long,we have rued that NEM is playing truant.The Usual suspects of Shear,HPA,SST have haunted us every year.

    In one of my earlier posts,my comments were “On a serious note,I was looking at the Lake levels and the cumulative rainfall in the last 3 years.As of today,our lakes are 20% lower than the same levels last year although rains are 5% more than the same time last year.This is a clear case of the city needing more water due to expansion.Chennai today has hardly seen the real growth seen in Delhi.Mumbai or even Bangalore.So it is clear that we will have huge pressures on water every year.No point in expecting Monsoon to give us that 20% year on year increase”

    And today’s blog comments were proof that most of us have been strained due to the miserable Nov.It is time to look at a permanent and a long term solution.

    That’s when I came across this stunning article in our own Frontline of the Hindu Group.
    Its written by T.N. Krishnamurti, a world-renowned atmospheric scientist from Florida State University (FSU), United States and the article will be featured in American Meteorological Society’s Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology.He is at present working with the faculty of the Department of Civil Engineering of Anna University, Chennai to finetune the proposal.

    In Summary ,he proposes to reshape the face of Jawadhu hills to bring Orographic rains.Its an outlandish and a crazy idea.But so is the proposed train journey from Delhi to Chennai in 6 hours!As the proposer seems to be an eminent personality ( I found his bio in http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/hurricanes/bios/krishnamurti_bio.html) and the costs seem to be only 2 times of a single desalination plant,it looks to be an idea worth exploring.

    Read the proposal carefully where he has logically talked about

    a.Increasing water demands of Chennai City

    b.Historical failures of NEM

    c.Costs and environmental impacts of Desal plants

    d.Why and How Jawadhu hills can be geo-engineered

    d.Why and How Jawadhu hills can be geo-engineered

    http://www.frontline.in/environment/to-harness-monsoon/article6632701.ece

    Reply

      • But it made for an interesting read..hope there is a followthrough to chk its utility

      • The answer is given in page no. 6. Its affect can be harmful to the local surroundings.

        “Modelling rainfall itself is not the main issue,” said Ravi Nanjundiah of the Centre for Atmosphere and Oceanic Sciences (CAOS), IISc. “My concern is from a larger ecological impact that such engineered heavy local rainfall can have. For instance, what does trapping all the moisture to a localised region do to areas leeward from there? Will they become more arid? What would happen to the biodiversity of the region? And, of course, there would be local farming practices based on existing rainfall patterns, and one needs to know how they will adapt to a changing ecology. I think a much more holistic, total ecological impact assessment has to be done before any geoengineering is planned,” he added.

      • Good article to read. There were suggestion to de-congest Chennai by moving its head quarters to Trichy. But then you know life is not that easy as we think

      • how re-modeling can change the ecology is very very tough to foresee due to nature’s diversifying tactics in order to get the stability.

        Nature builts all its components by very very slowly and steady process. but human beings are all nature’s components at rapid pace for their selfish needs.

        for example:
        Uttarakhand floods in 2013, which killed in thousand within no time. This happened due to removing naturally built supporting stones on the river path in order to build a hydal project.

      • Yes, you’re right.
        Here’s the link describing mjo and qbo relationship.

        QBU stratified data (ie., 30-60 day power) show a robust tendency for sharply stronger amplitudes for November through February during the east phase and for a March through May maximum during the west phase. ENSO stratified oscillations show robust El Nino linked enhancements concentrated in 45-60 day frequencies during September to November whereas La Nina data tend to become stronger in 30-45 day frequencies during December to March.

        https://ams.confex.com/ams/25HURR/techprogram/paper_36913.htm

      • Are you sure about strong mjo resulting in decrease in qbo value. As far i know qbo is a two year process. It changes once in two years. So qbo will turn positive next year, not this year.

      • Guest11k,

        I still not understood this interlink between MJO & QBO.

        But I could not able to see for -QBO yrs consecutively for 2 back to back yrs. But I could able to see back to back neutral/+ve QBO for the below data-base since 1948. Most importantly this -ve QBO is fading out by winter time.

        So by the above analogy, I am expecting by this December QBO will start to increase dramatically from too -ve value i.e. -28.0.

        QBO-index: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data

      • During 99w, Navalur(Chennai south urban area)managed to get around 12cm where as some parts of city have received more than this. This is just example…Samething happened during this SWM that resulted in borewell dried in my apartment

    • Better change capital and water consuming industries to the central madhurai….or wherever the rains are plenty….. Instead of suffering water shartage for decades to come…… Just a possible suggestion no pun meant..

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      • As most of the state capitals are brimming with people…its impossible for goverments to provide the basic needs…..hence people are forced to live in undignified conditions producing unabsorbable environmental damage….hence the governments should think of having two state capitals…a possibility in the digital era…

    • grow more trees- govt – sign mono rail…
      interlink rivers – govt- run bullet train..
      take care of ghats-govt–builg huge. statue..
      hope somebody remind govts people means
      all living humans n not juz ambanis n adhanis…

      Reply

  34. @Rami,

    QBU stratified data (ie., 30-60 day power) show a robust tendency for sharply stronger amplitudes for November through February during the east phase and for a March through May maximum during the west phase. ENSO stratified oscillations show robust El Nino linked enhancements concentrated in 45-60 day frequencies during September to November whereas La Nina data tend to become stronger in 30-45 day frequencies during December to March.

    https://ams.confex.com/ams/25HURR/techprogram/paper_36913.htm

    Reply

    • I still not understood this interlink between MJO & QBO. But need to understand this QBO concept to estimate its influence on BOB-pulses.

      But I could not able to see for -QBO yrs consecutively for 2 back to back yrs. But I could able to see back to back neutral/+ve QBO for the below data-base since 1948. Most importantly this -ve QBO is fading out by winter time.

      So by the above analogy, I am expecting by this December QBO will start to increase dramatically from too -ve value i.e. -28.0.

      QBO-index: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data

      Reply

  36. Chennai has lost so much of green cover in the last few years, that I am not surprised at rains playing truant and summer temperatures hitting the roof. Sardar Patel Road right from Ashok Leyland to Adyar bus depot > Rain trees chopped in 2007-8, Kotturpuram > Gandhi Mandapam Road Rain trees chopped 2008, T Nagar Usman Road flyover, trees chopped all the way, especially those on western side of Panagal Park.

    Many of us here work in IT parks in OMR (including myself), so you might have not have failed to notice, how little trees have been planted along both sides of OMR. They have the ability to water the decorative shrubs in the median, but cannot plant any trees. I once raised it through The Hindu in 2008, but no avail. Ironically then TNRDC the contractor had a former secy. to MoEF as one of its directors. What they do best, in the medians it has planted an alien specie some palm variety from Far East.

    Coming to the latest chop, it is along the Metro lines. From Pillar to Koyambedu its chop chop chop all the way. Now that 90% of track work is over, is any planting of fresh saplings coming up…Nope.

    Now for what takes the cake! Koyambedu fly-over has a green make-over. How not by lofty local trees like Neem, Jamun, Arasu etc., but with grass. When we badly need trees to reduce dust, increase shade and ambience, our guys think we are in England where we need green Korean grass to relax in English summer at balmy 20c.

    Is anyone complaining. Nope. Govt. goes as per its agenda.

    I am not even talking of how many flats have come up in places where demolishing old houses which were typically surrounded by coconut, neem and mango trees. or about heat radiated from the gleaming glass facades of high rises.

    Reply

    • Don’t worry v will take u to mars, is what d
      world govts order..so even people don’t
      care about eco system, which is nothing
      but god..then how will god pay back..development is key word for rulers.but
      there will be no development if nature is hurt
      like this..hope more saghayams come n
      help mankind..

      Reply

    • Sir
      Do you know Who is major funding money for planting trees and encouraging forests?
      You will be surprised… !

      Reply

  37. In 1990 when Madras High Court campus was expanded and green cover lost, there was so much uproar and concern and same was in 1994 when Mount Road was expanded post Gemini to Tarapore Towers. Now things have gone so bad that even if one tree is chopped there must be a great uproar but what is happening is exactly the contrary.

    No wonder, sea breeze does not cross triplicane or Mandaveli.

    Reply

    • Oops, I have missed the chops within my beloved IIT campus, where I did my schooling. Atleast that was protested against.

      Reply

  38. I would attribute the Horrid summers of 2009 and 2012 when min was hovering around 30C for nearly a month to loss of green cover. In summers this would make a diff of 2-3 C for sure.

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  40. @Rami,

    You are right. Next two months we may see sudden increase in qbo value and the reason for it is SSW( sudden stratospheric warming). SSW results in increase in qbo value. In coming January we will be having SSW event which will result in increase in qbo value.

    Reply

    • My confidence increased about increase in QBO value (based on MJO & past winter QBO data) after seeing ur blog-reference (generally I used to follow only arctic forum only).

      But u r excellent in bringing good information to our blog.

      MJO & QBO are interlinked with stratosphere, especially around tropopause (junction of starto- &trop-spheres). This tropopause is very important for any tropical pulses to grow into powerful full pledged systems.

      -ve QBO generally won’t favor for a tropical disturbance to grow into a stronger full pledged cyclone. That too in -ve SOI year.

      Reply

      • Thanks. What’s your prediction for 2015. Will we see la nina next year or do you expect it to follow 2014.

      • Actually its too late for the fresh WWB to occur to the timely onset of Elnino by the spring in next year. But anything can happen in +PDO phase (which may stay for nearly next 10 yrs starting from 2014).

        But my expectation is that 2015 can become Lanina-modki or Weak-Lanina (regular). But high expectation for Lanina-modoki like 2005 style.

        Main reason is that Atlantic hurricane season can not be in sleep mode for a 3rd consecutive yr in 2015. We know that 2013 & 2014, Atlantic hurricane season is in sleep mode. Elnino/Elnino like year in 2015 won’t support any good hurricane activity. even super Elnino like 1997 (regular Elnino) doesn’t supported good hurricane activity.

        (But come to final conclusion after analyzing the data for 1976-77, 1985-87, 1982-83, 1996-98, 2009-2010 Elnino episodes on Atlantic hurricane activity).

      • for next year to be la nina the current KW has to die otherwise it will result in conditions similar to 2014.

      • Very strong typhoon developing in WP which may result in WWB and indirectly help in strengthening of the KW.

      • Very strong typhoon developing in WP which may result in WWB and indirectly help in strengthening of the KW.

  41. Susa,

    All of the following years are not valid ur statement of strong -ve SOI years. They may be considered as Elnino yrs with persistent -ve SOI values for 3 consecutive yrs. But this Elnino conditions eased at the time of NEM-season in few of the years mentioned below (see the SOI-data mentioned by me).

    So please let me know which years to be explained by interlinking SOI-concept with good NEM-season.
    I can explain all the rears (including any cyclones) with powerful Quadruple equation ie. MJO+SOI+IOD+QBO.

    Susa:
    Just wanted to let you know that even when SOI is deeply negative, we have received
    very heavy rains..

    Examples
    ————-
    1901
    1972
    1977
    1992
    1994
    1997
    2006 NEM start

    SOI values on 1st date:
    (1) 1901:
    September: -16.0
    October:-22.1
    November:-8.6
    December:-1.9
    January (1902): +17.0

    (2) 1972:
    September:-14.8
    October:-11.1
    November: -3.4
    December:-12.1
    January (1973): -3.0

    (3) 1977:
    September: -9.4
    October: -12.9
    November:-14.6
    December:-10.6
    January (1978): -3.0

    (4) 1992:
    September: 0.8
    October: -17.2
    November:-7.3
    December:-5.5
    January (1993): -8.2

    (5) 1994:
    September:-17.2
    October:-14.1
    November:-7.3
    December:-11.6
    January (1995): -4.0

    (6) 1997:
    September:-14.8
    October:-17.8
    November:-15.2
    December:-9.1
    January (1998): -23.5

    (7) 2006:
    September:-5.1
    October:-15.3
    November:-1.4
    December:-3.0
    January (2007): -7.3

    BoM SOI-data link: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/soihtm1.shtml

    Reply

      • Susa, by seeing the following SOI-oscillation, we can understand that SOI not rigid (by considering November & January 1st SOI values) in its oscillation at staying below -10. Its too flexible and started its journey towards “0”.

        But here I am not bringing other 3 parameters MJO+QBO+IOD. Among these MJO is main component in MJSOI-coordination theory.

        Overall I am practicing the dynamics based on powerful quadruple equation: MJO+SOI+IOD+ QBO.

        November: -3.4
        December:-12.1
        January (1973): -3.0

  43. Have a look at the outflow from Hudhud at upper levels, and also watch for the ridge to the NE , that steered it

    Reply

  46. I don’t know if this model is trust worthy.
    But CFS still expects a boxing day system to happen 🙂
    I saw the same forecast about a week back and they showed this system as a big cyclone and now they are still maintaining the same thing to happen.
    Wish this happens…
    Chennai badly needs a strong system or even maybe a strong rain pounding cyclone.

    Reply

      • Even one strong system can wipe out all our deficits. .
        All we need is a system good for chennai.

  47. Slowly models are coming in line and showing good rainfall for TN from second half of December. ( mjo may enter IO during second half of dec, soi will oscillate between 0 to -5, qbo will increase in value and iod will be neutral).

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=336&image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_asia_336_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=asia&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141130+12+UTC&imageSize=&ps=area

    Reply

  48. Guest11k,

    Not worried about present Kelvin wave. Even in 2005 a kelvin wave surfaced during pre-SWM month that is in May. For Lanina-modoki to occur, Nino 1+2 SST has to stay as warm only. If Nino 1+2 SST cools down it will become 2010 type regular lanina.

    2005-May’s kelvin wave surfacing:

    Reply

  52. Many times in the past whenever it has been heavy rains for STN during NEM NTN has been dry that doesnt mean NEM has ended for NTN/Chennai. NTN/Chennai have received rains in the latter period after rain stops in STN. For example in 2008 during Nisha cyclone time prior to that cyclone heavy rains were reported in STN NTN was dry then suddenly we had Nisha rains. During 2012 NEM on 23rd Oct day before diwali heavy showers after which Chennai was dry and during dry times Pondicherry there was rains during diwali deluge happened. In November 2012 less rains for Chennai for few days then one fine christmas we had deluge due to Thane cyclone. So lets not write off NEM december can be deluge month or cyclone month whatever but trend of NEM over the years has been if it rains first in STN then later NTN’s turn comes and vice versa.

    Reply

  54. Guest11k,

    have u come across in any blog regarding this west-African SST anomalies interlinking ENSO-concept?

    I never seen this discussion in arctic forum too.

    Reply

  55. Please note this NEM in Chennai is not bad..so far we recieved 603mm and if we receive150mm in dec then total comes around 750 and we will end up with only 11% deficit this NEM and 7% deficit overall.. Not bad at all as we think only November month is a disappointment..

    Reply

  59. Jeetu ,

    In western Pacific , usually the names are given by JMA RSMC ,,,Tokyo
    But the Philippines weather agency have a right and choice granted by the RSMC to give names in their local language .
    This is because , the avg storms in a year for Philippines is around 20 ….most vulnerable region of that basin ..
    So, to make people feel the seriousness of the storms , this country gives names in their vernacular to make it more effective and reaches people ….This is the reason that was given by Robert Speta

    Reply

  61. Paddock site says SOI is at -8.0 jeteender does this figure also apply for India. RS Rao Sir how do i check SOI and SST updates for India please guide me.

    Reply

  70. Let’s see if the start of new month brings any change to the weather. The dry phase is currently at 16 and this is already one of the longest during NEM

    Reply

    • Some rains around coastal areas of delta dist nearby vedaranyam,Tirupoondi.
      Sat image shows well

      Reply

  72. Interior tamilnadu is having already a delicious winter and rains were very very less over tiruvannamalai,kanchipuram,Tiruvallur dist interior,vellore,trichy.

    Reply

  74. Circulation weakened much rainfall to reduce over Tamilnadu.
    There is some chance of isolated moderate showers over coastal tamilnadu.

    Reply

  75. Strange weather today. Upto 5:45 am the minimum temp was 26 c, then suddenly it started dropping to around 24

    Reply

  79. november month ended in a sorry note for chennai. hope and despair has become a routine for chennai rains in the recent years. as the topic shows in receent years this november was the second worst. as a tamil proverb says ” mazhai varuvathum, makkat pirappum mahesan kaiyil” meaning the rain, and birth of a child is in the hand of god, we have to anticipate,the nature will pave way for good rains. but as per models a near by start to this month seems to be mirage.
    i pray along with the bloggers for this month rain, and end this year n.e.m in a positive note.

    Reply

  81. guys the intensity of the lpa in the northwest pacific has become high…..i reckon it will turn into a deadly cyclone

    Reply

  82. Light rain dark clouds heavy chill winds.. Hill station effect… May b last rain day from the present system…

    Reply

  96. During 30 Nov – 1 Dec, tropical storm “SINLAKU” to make landfall over lower Vietnam and trends to lose its strength. More rain is expected over the lower Northeast, the East, the lower Central and the upper South. During 1 – 5 Dec another active low pressure cell over the middle South China Sea is expected to move to lower Vietnam.

    Reply