If Chennai has to get rains from this system, it has to be today as the Low Pressure will be at its closest proximity to Chennai. This system has turned out to be mystery as it has baffled weather models, IMD and bloggers with its track. I hope one of the northern bands extends to Chennai. The ECMWF Precipitation Chart for Saturday night is given below.
KeaWeather Archives 
Difference between yesterday and today..
Looks Like Circulation Is Moving
Yes.. We will get rain.. NEM will help us..
Today circulation looks better defined. Vorticity increased in last 9 hours.
Yes.. Yesterday it was not like that.. If it moves towards NW .. we will get rain.. Lets hope for the best.. We can’t predict nature .. It will help us… I am having faith.
Roads and terrace are wet…it might have drizzled slightly.
We will get rain.. Nature will help.. Please hope for the best.. Mark my words..
All we can do now is hope for a good end to this month. Rather than being pessimistic about further rains this season. I welcome your post.
In 2011 Tane cyclone came on December only(Dec 23 2011).. Please don’t think negative.. 🙂
Yes, and it crossed Puducherry and adjoining North TN coast, that too in late Dec.
Kea the topic should have been Chennai’s last hope for rains in November ends! !
Yes I agree with you. Hope to see the correction soon
This is PJ’s topic
Kea sir please change chennai’s last hope for November rains ends today because new comers of blog will think no rains here after but still December rains are there! So please change sir…
This is bloggers’ request. He may agree to make correction
Yes
made the correction.
Thanks a lot PJ.
It rains or not in Chennai is nature’s will. No human can predict always correct. According to me you have put in lot of efforts. Hats off to you PJ. Keep cintnuing your marvelous work.
Yet disappointed. Not even feeling to blog. Rain has such effect on me.
Same Feeling Here…
we are with you always boss, don’t lose hope, we will definitely get our share at least next month, you know very well than me, my small thought is never write off , until it officially over.
Yes I can very much understand your feelings. We have two weeks in Dec. We can really hope for a turn around.
I feel it sills holds good for december. Even the dec 2nd week system has been removed from GFS as per kea. With no system in line we will have welcome our winter!!
May be we will have some easterlies or something if not for Pacific system. December will never be left dry. Ignore last year
Sir thane cyclone came at the end of 2011!
It will rain for sure today i have a postive side for it.
I don,t understand why people are writing off this system?? it,s still active..and it may wake up anytime ..
Yeah may wake up only to bid adieu to us
Yes that’s what I am telling…
Yes its alive, no doubt. If i’m right as per forecast its expected to weaken and drift sw under the influence of central india HPA and the chances of rains for chennai decreases when it moves SW, STN may get rains
If god wills anything can happen that Indian HPA can weaken
GENESIS POTENTIAL PARAMETER
Analysis – http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/images/NWP_CYC/gpp/gpp_00.gif
24 Hours – http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/images/NWP_CYC/gpp/gpp_24.gif
48 Hours – http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/images/NWP_CYC/gpp/gpp_48.gif
72 Hours – http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/images/NWP_CYC/gpp/gpp_72.gif
Now cuddalore and Pondicherry getting moderate rains
A quick update as of 0000UTC ( i.e. 5.30am Indian time)
CIMSS shows the system just coming out of the ICU stage.
1.850mb vorticity has regained a bit of its shape.
2.It seems to be also showing some signs of convergence and divergence
3.Vorticity seems to be hovering around the NE tip of Srilanka.
The poor guys seems to have gone through lots of shear and is entering a low shear zone.
This does not mean rains for Chennai,but my guess is Delta to Chid to cdl may still get some more rains for the next 6-12 hrs.
convergence should take place by 2-4pm..,i,m hoping few spells for Chennai today late evening..
IST 8.30am – Satellite Image
Cloud Temperature
Partha sri would have been the most dissapointed person …bad luck man..horrible system….infact everyone is dissapointed
According to me the all time horrible system is Cyclone Jal and Nilam. Nilam, more so on the day of landfall. This system is not all that bad. It is still alive and anything can happen.
if anybody noticed today morning it was quite heavy wind gust than last four days..it seems the lpa may develop into D soon,
U still believe in this system to become a D???
you keep faith till last movement, ..it,s still out their and giving rains to our STN as of now, its only matter of time ..hope u agree..
Ya Agree Even if it becomes a D Models say it will move south west what benefit us???
you cannot predict exact wind direction during nem, it can keep changing…so lets wait for few more updates..
Where is PA Group? Without Susa, Ameen blog is not active……I think, they would have gone to school…………
Ameen told school is holiday
Then he would have been sleeping…………
Yes
Here
Hats off To Vela Sir He Told In The First That We May Not Be Getting Rains…. It Has Come True!!!
If it does not rain till tomorrow. We have to appreciate him. He stood all alone. Then Ehsan too who joined him after seeing cola 0 mm
I Dont think it will rain hopes lost….
Be positive……..nature has some own calculations and we have to digest it……PJ is always accurate and let us hope, we should expect rain this time too……….still time is left………….If God is willing, then we will get rains…………
PJ,
I tooo need the rain….. But if v see the reality, there is no hope / no support for rains….
when depression will form? this current system have any chances?
50/50
No chance for Depression
16th day of dry spell can’t we see the dry spell end
Something like 2008 nisha is needed to bail out this Nem
Think what will be there about LPA in all India weather bulletin today morning?
Navy NRL , RAMMB Cyclone pages have removed our system from their sites
Look at CIMSS 00UTC…shape is encouraging..need to see whether there are steering winds at all
Oh ok , I ll look into it ..
Can you also chk the HPA..am worried with the cool winds in chennai
Yeah I ll chk that too
if this system is fighting for survival, lets help to buit it up buy giving positive vibes. Adding to that its still active and producing rains below pondy hope all agree..
Still it has the capacity to push the northern bands towards us..its in open water only..while nearing the nagai coast & to GOM..the bands will move to North TN..by seeing the old & new sat images..the bands have extended from south TN to North TN & east side of chennai also…
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/nwp/48hgfs_850wind.htm
This is our last hope from this lpa ..
All is not lost. I still hope one band will fall over Chennai
i too confident on that..
They dissipate in an instant whenever they try to come close.. has cool winds in chennai got anything to do with it??
Please wait till today before calling it completely.
i request to all bloggers never lose hope, until it offically over
Vela the system moved NW and thats the biggest victory. It was a difficult system to predict. Sad thing it did not extend into Chennai
I too watching the same ….
everyone said we are into a wet december??? what is the status of it??
Hope!! !!
May start to rain from 2nd week..
Let all of us believe it will rain..not depending on models..
so Chennai should get its quota soon..IMD.. The chief amounts of rainfall recorded in centimetres are:
TAMIL NADU: Vedaranyam (Nagapattinam Dist) 13, Rameswaram (Ramanathapuram Dist) 10, Tiruchendur (Toothukudi Dist) 9, Pamban (Ramanathapuram Dist) 8, Nanguneri (Tirunelveli Dist), Tondi (Ramanathapuram Dist) 7 each, Tuticorin (Toothukudi Dist), Ramanathapuram (Ramanathapuram Dist), Thoothukudi port AWS (Toothukudi Dist), Kadaladi (Ramanathapuram Dist), Vilathikulam (Toothukudi Dist), Kamudhi (Ramanathapuram Dist), Ramnad nicra (Ramanathapuram Dist), Satankulam (Toothukudi Dist), Tiruvadanai (Ramanathapuram Dist) 5 each, Pattukottai (Thanjavur Dist), Srivaikuntam (Toothukudi Dist), Adirampatnam (Thanjavur Dist), Papanasam (Tirunelveli Dist), R.s.mangalam (Ramanathapuram Dist), Manamelkudi (Pudukkottai Dist) 4 each, Mudukulatur (Ramanathapuram Dist), Kayathar arg (Toothukudi Dist), Illayangudi (Sivaganga Dist), Ayikudi (Tirunelveli Dist), Sivaganga (Sivaganga Dist), Palayamkottai (Tirunelveli Dist), Radhapuram (Tirunelveli Dist), Ottapadiram (Toothukudi Dist), Arantangi (Pudukkottai Dist), Kamudhi arg (Ramanathapuram Dist), Manamadurai (Sivaganga Dist), Devakottai (Sivaganga Dist), Kovilpatti (Toothukudi Dist) 3 each, Paramakudi (Ramanathapuram Dist), Ambasamudram (Tirunelveli Dist), Karaikudi (Sivaganga Dist), Cheranmahadevi (Tirunelveli Dist), Maniyachi (Toothukudi Dist), Manimutharu (Tirunelveli Dist), Nagapattinam (Nagapattinam Dist), Tirupuvanam (Sivaganga Dist), Pechiparai (Kanyakumari Dist), Surangudi (Toothukudi Dist), Kovilpatti AWS (Toothukudi Dist), Kuzhithurai (Kanyakumari Dist), Madurai south (Madurai Dist), Peravurani (Thanjavur Dist), Tirupathur (Sivaganga Dist), Sankarankoil (Tirunelveli Dist), Kalugumalai (Toothukudi Dist), Karaikal (Karaikal Dist) 2 each, Thenkasi (Tirunelveli Dist), Peraiyur (Madurai Dist), Aruppukottai (Virudhunagar Dist), Lower kothaiyar arg (Kanyakumari Dist), Kovilankulam (Virudhunagar Dist), Madukkur (Thanjavur Dist), Airport Madurai (Madurai Dist), Sattur (Virudhunagar Dist), Melur (Madurai Dist), Muthupet (Tiruvarur Dist), Tirumayam (Pudukkottai Dist), Arimalam (Pudukkottai Dist), Virudhunagar (Virudhunagar Dist), Tirumangalam (Madurai Dist), Sivakasi (Virudhunagar Dist), Chittampatti (Madurai Dist), Thiruthuraipoondi (Tiruvarur Dist), Nagercoil (Kanyakumari Dist), Sivagiri (Tirunelveli Dist), Pudukottai (Pudukkottai Dist), Srivilliputhur (Virudhunagar Dist), Periyar (Theni Dist), Perungalur (Pudukkottai Dist), Trangambadi(or)tranqueb (Nagapattinam Dist), Alangudi (Pudukkottai Dist), Rajapalayam (Virudhunagar Dist), Kanyakumari (Kanyakumari Dist) 1 each
Nice to see delta regions get rains..its very imp for our agriculture..
What ever, i am going to stick to my 190mm from this system….! For chennai
One thing to note is that we can say conditions are favorable for rain today. But it is always difficult to predict the quantity of the rain. Even IMD predicted very heavy rain in coastal yesterday. But not much rains. Another factor is that we know how much our NEM is unpredictable.
Hows is the weather now in madurai?
Cloudy and hazy. No sun shine.
Friends, BBC is more hopeful than most of the bloggers, as I said yesterday, one or two Kea bloggers are working overtime in UKMO to squeeze something out this system. It’s forecast says rains right through the evening and night till tomorrow morning. If anyone wants to thrash me for posting this image n promise, can do do so in in forum page.
DAY 2 (29th November): Moderate to rather heavy rain would occur at most places overChennai, Kancheepuram, Tiruvallur, Cuddalore, Villupuram, Thanjavur, Tiruvarur, Nagapattinam, Pudukottai, Ramanathapuram, Tirunelveli, Tuticorin, Kanyakumari, Sivagangai, Virudhunagar districts of Coastal Tamil Nadu and Puducherry and at many places over the remaining districts of Tamil Nadu.
DAY 3 (30th November): Moderate to rather heavy rain would occur at many places over all the districts of Tamil Nadu and Puducherry.
this is what i.m.d expects even now, let us wait and hope some thing miracle happen
1st india vs Australia test most likely to be rescheduled
I thought the entire tour itself could get rescheduled ..
bloggers please don’t be in despair. we bloggers can surely drag the system towards us. keep your positive thoughts on. All is well. How long will Chennai be dry? Surely wet spell is very very soon. All we need is Patience. PJ and NOVak, You are the positive pillars of the blog.Hats off
What non sense is this? How can a bunch of bloggers pull a system towards us.
Of course we can’t pull the System. I accept the reality but just to change the blog’s energy level, I typed like that. Hope i didn’t do anything wrong.
Nothing Wrong in that…
Instead u can try to find out the reason why this system has not given rains to Chennai, so that u can also start learn about the nature…
It is easy to gather results for the failure of the system, but to predict it before,is the toughest thing
Once u start collected, for the next system u can apply the same and check before predicting
Thanks for the idea
Bunch certainly not needed, you single handedly can do it..
As a weather blogger one has to be realistic rather than just being positive
I think he didn’t mean it literally. He should have meant to be positive and hopeful for good things to happen. Positive energy can bring positive things, that’s what he is trying to say.
2 pillars won’t withstand, so count me in
3 kooda pathathu, add me. but i wl fell first
I know some one will join as the fourth, you did it
Me too joining thala tony stark!!!!
Omg
To add, none of the models which ruled out rains for Chennai picked up rains for Marakanam to Nagai stretch. Even for Nagai to Ramnad stretch the amount of rains they precited are way too low. Their forecast of nil to low rains clicked for chennai, but failed for many coastal areas. Our forecast failed (until now, not to be completely written off) only for Chennai. Still we are better than models that way
Latest GFS forecast is out …and forecasts the LOW to stay in the same location off shore central TN coast and dumps most of the rain in open waters ….With only Pondicherry and Cuddalore surroundings seeing to get the benefit …And the forecast for tonight and into tomorrow sees some spill over effect on Chennai ….
Later from tomorrow the centre seems to be losing latitude and slipping down , again most benefit to Cuddalore surroundings
Unless HPA paves way, rains for chennai is a huge ask:-(
HPA is strongly settling over our region. . .
Yes…It won’t allow the storms to reach us…Either system should intensify rapidly or HPA lose its strength
kea is taunting all the over confident or confident bloggers today.
Don’t worry. Let’s hope for the best.
Northerly winds are very strong. That should give way to NE winds.
I believe none of the models which ruled out rains for Chennai picked up rains for Marakanam to Nagai stretch. Even for Nagai to Ramnad stretch the amount of rains they precited are way too low. Their forecast of nil to low rains clicked for chennai, but failed for many coastal areas. Our forecast failed (until now, not to be completely written off) only for Chennai but other coastal areas got fair amount. Still we are better than models that way
Yes, 100% Correct… The system has given some moderate to heavy rains to South TN.
Even for North coastal TN up to Marakanam. Only our region has missed out so far.
Ayya, please leave that marakanam marakanam story/puraanam, thanking you,
Yours truly
Jeetender
Fact pa, how can you say that it rained only in South TN. Pondy is well n truly North Tn.
That’s true
That’s what I was trying to repeat.
U r correct Shiva,
I failed in my prediction… Now its ok for u
Finally, proved, thala thala thaan
25% chance is still swings gts for chennai
Interior Western districts sill not receiving rainfall the total November rainfall is 26mm only.
Its has not rained in cbe in november sir 😦
I agree and I know, I was pointing the rainfall at my farm 70kms South East to CBE.
yeah. but i was referring only to the coastal areas. haven’t checked interiors data
@disqus_stdfSn8HSG:disqus
Lower convergence and upper divergence seems to be good at only close to the center..This would help the system to stay at that location for the next 12 – 24 hrs …
The main disturbing factor is that it hasn’t got that enough convection to support it’s skeleton and simultaneously it seems to face the strong outflows from the HPA located in North India …
This would be stressing up a constant pressure on the trough associated with this low ….
Even lower level RH seems to be making a feeble presence over N TN coast ……
Overall, we have some rain chances , but the probability would decrease post 24 hrs …
agreed…HPA has been a killer this time.
The System is able to build a reasonable band in the open seas,but unable to sustain it over the coast.
HPA will not allow the system to enter the landmass to provide the rains near chennai coast. The rains are possible only for C.TN coastal areas.
Despite this established fact, i believe there will be some rains for chennai from Sunday morning till early hours of Monday morning. My prediction is 50 mm of rainfall during this 24 hour period.
If the current satellite picture is of any indiacation, chennai should get rains. It exactly replicates our blog image. Have nt we got rains earlier with clouds perched like in this satellite image.
One big comedy is some experts expected pull effect rains, he he
We are now witnessing the All new push effect!! chennai is pushing the system away..
Smoking effect of chennai
Minute drizzles started in urapakkam
Good!!!
Latest 850 mb vorticity shows the system is in process of sliding down south west. I hope its not correct.
CIMSS 0300UTC shows the 850mb vorticity moving or sinking SW into the Srilankan landmass..thats not good news
Chennai might probably miss out on the rains due to the dry air around.
Hey guys just saw all India weather bulletin morning still they are expecting to become a well marked low pressure!
Guys!! Can U Help Me Whenever I Login After Some time When I Post A Comment It Say In Red Box Provide authenticate Provide email What Is It
current satellite image looks promising. Ignore my earlier image which was not I intended.
It must be drizzling close to Tambaram :-))
time pass – This is how Rainfall looks – A view from flight …
awesome
Great Pic!!!
I didn’t expect this much turn around from you, ha ha
imd gfs model will come out soon..
Gfs expansion and its significance?
Som mod rain can’t b ruled out we r @ closest of receiving som
oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MTP/PRODUCTS/MPE/SOUTHERNASIA/IMAGESDisplay/w4Bdshekxq0Wn
drizzle started in east of tambaram and madambakkam
first time clouds in radar crossed 13 degree bermuda latitude. I still hope we should get 5 CM from this system as the circulation is still intact in bay which looks better than earlier circulations. Hope the Hysteric pressure area from north india goes away
light drizzle… at last….
me too madambakkam where u stayed
Greater Kailash Nagar near to the lake…
im in als nagar opp of pillyar kovil
on the main road ???
yes………
o podu, whistle podu.
how is it that SWM never fails to give its quota to chennai unlike NEM. Any explanations from experts??
SWM quota is only 448 and we have 4 full months to achieve that. Where as NEM quota is 857 and less than 2 months to get it in
kea what a coincidence in our comments which I never expected.
Some times it happens
SWM takes 4 months to give 60 CM (which is only for last three years), whereas NEM has taken 25 days to give 60 CM. I feel whenever SWM is good for chennai, NEM is taking rest that year. Hereafter I will not prefer good SWM for chennai. SWM rains should be under 30 CM for good NEM of over and above 100 cm (my theory)
we need both rains to keep the ground water level charged.
we need it I agree. But a good SWM doesnt always result in good NEM. Only a few years has given good NEM when SWM was better.
may be, it is not for all years
But ground water table improves drastically only with NEM rains as it is otherwise called as winter monsoon. Less evaporation during NEM season.
agree, but to bridge the gap from the water used from n.e.m to the summer, we always need good s.w.m. which is we are having now a days plenty.
Yes, rains during any season is most welcome for water table needs n may not be for the farming community as I’ll timed rains may damage crops.
there are two types of farming going on in t.n and also all over india, you know it,
Honestly, no idea about it. I’ve heard farmers say that ill timed rains have damaged crops. Used to wonder , problems are there if it rains or if it doesn’t..
i’m not also a expert , but just now i saw a website and it says in t.n we grow rice around the year with sowing and harvesting done, for different types of rice , in different times of the year,
SWM is the foundation over which NEM constructs its palace so both r equally important i guess!!
NO, SWM is not a foundation for NEM.
Yes very much in terms of water table maintenance. Lake levels or water levels starts stabilising after a harsh summer during Swm season only to improve during NEM.
Yes. Thats exactly what i am talking about. SWM takes the dry season out of the equation and thus makes it easy for NEM!!
Moreover SWM rains for our region is by and large is isolated and not widespread like NEM rains. 90 % of SWM rains for us are convectional rains and storms by large dumps rains in select areas and it’s very difficult give a definitive forecast few days ahead as thunder storms develop due to convection in most cases and aided by the westerly, south westerly wind flow and onset of sea breeze and other local factors play a role there.NEM are mostly system driven rains and to an extent forecast or areas where it can rain can be given few days ahead as it will be widespread.
agree, but depending mainly on system for n.e.m, now a days seems to be suicidal.
No other go, got to live with it forever.
with last 3 years we witnessing some what not enough rains in nem it is swm which act as the saviour for the needs of chennai
If SWM Fails Of Course NEM Is Gonna Be Excess U See In This year’s SWM We Had Many Cloudy Days Without Rains So That Prevented Evaporation
Rain may start anytime from now, it is just getting delayed, the parameters i have seen since yesterday cannot fail, i am sure on that aspect. Only thing is that divergence is weak at 20 knots, it will gain once it becomes WML.
Dont miss to watch out for Western Disturbance, this has move towards NE kashmir, the influence will reduce from now on.
ACC over west coast now is impacting and stopping the divergence to develop. It will move today eastwards to Bay of Bengal to get the WML to come into good shape.
Some covections are developing over ENE of Chennai, will reach by afternoon…
500MB vorticity has moved north since yesterday.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=vor2&zoom=&time=
oh you also cheated by wrong image. Just now I posted the current satellite image
so again chances to intense?
Will it gain Depression status and what will be the movement after it gain WML status will it Hit C TN coast?
ameen less chances to depression…
partha you done live the system till in our log..wake up with your predictions keep it up..
Spoke to my father,,its drizzling in thiruporur….Welcome rains..
Criticism, like rain, should be gentle enough to nourish a man’s growth without destroying his roots.
superb comment calgary man.
I am not Calgary man,i am always a Chennai man..came to Calgary for professional growth & for some money..after coming here feel totally disconnected from nature..cant open the windows,sit in balcony because of freezing cold..always in closed doors..what a hell?in Chennai I will sit for hours in open balcony..
only for two months you have to suffer. After february you will enjoy calgary and canada weather. YOu can see all the five seasons in canada.
ya that’s true..let see
Nature waited for black Friday to get over for bright Saturday or sunday to Chennai/TN..:)
Synoptic Charts
Sir one question what is the meaning of two rings of LPA in SW BOB yesterday it had only one ring please explain what is the meaning of two rings?
850hpa – winds
According to this chart HPA has shifted its line from chennai to south Andhra rite sir??
as time goes, HPA will start to come down…
Why murugaa??
same pinch, i usually call everybody murugaa and vice versa. how u too
ha ha..2 things..my friend used to call everytime so I used to it & another reason vela is muruga..
Hope you go wrong
OMG, see the circualtion in bay through earth null. It has become intense. WML is on the cards soon.
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-279.62,10.44,1046
I am expecting decent rain numbers for Pondy.
once again wml started?
Today chennai, fully air conditioned free of cost, courtesy:NEM
correction: Courtesy HPA.. Not NEM!!
When HPA will move?
Plese look into the above Post from Vela sir. It has already shown signs of movement!!
Can hpa induce the same during summer this kind of enjoyable weather’ not possible without cloud cover in chennai
Rain Update from Low Pressure Area in Bay of Bengal – Mr. Srikanth
https://chennairains.files.wordpress.com/2014/11/slide19.png?w=225&h=300
https://chennairains.files.wordpress.com/2014/11/slide45.png?w=225&h=300
https://chennairains.files.wordpress.com/2014/11/slide29.png?w=225&h=300
The billion dollar question is will Chennai get rains? Going by forecasts by various weather models the outlook is pretty bleak, but there is a cause for optimism If one observes the Wind chart the HPA is showing some signs of elongation to the east which could be an effect of the Low Pressure Area slowly organizing itself.
While it is not a case of sure shot rains on the cards, the chance of rains are roughly the same as what it was when we first predicted rains for Chennai. North Tamil Nadu has got rains until little North of Pondy, Chennai is not far away lets have some more patience.
https://chennairains.files.wordpress.com/2014/11/slide52.png?w=225&h=300
Met predicts 100 hours of fog from mid-December in ND
Started drizzling in Perumbakkam
Nice to see posts of drizzles around Chennai.
Really a nice, but need some good rains… expecting for it
Will we get good rains?
Everyone looking for rains… Let it happens.. v will enjoy all together
agree, but from 0 it moves to trace, hope it moves further.
what about system intense?
Bay circulation ,would have become a D definitely, if not for the Big circulation in southern hemisphere.. Inspite of MJO support and agrreeable SST, this is sucking the moisture from Bay’s southern bands..
http://earth.nullschool.net/
ACC extending till 13N is the villain now, hope it moves north once Low intensifies into WML..
Area of convection intensifying over ENE of Chennai…
Just a revisit to enlighten our spirits
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005_North_Indian_Ocean_cyclone_season#Cyclonic_Storm_Baaz
♦ The low pressure area over Sri Lanka and adjoining areas of Gulf of Mannar & southwest Bay of Bengal persists Associated upper air cyclonic circulation extends upto 3.1 km above mean sea level. It may become well marked low pressure area during next 24 hours.
Weather Warning during next 3 days *
29 November (Day 1): ♦ Heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur at isolated places over coastal
Tamilnadu and heavy at isolated places over interior Tamilnadu.
♦ Fishermen are advised to be cautious while venturing into the sea along and off Tamilnadu coast.
30 November (Day 2):♦ Heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur at a few places over coastal
Tamilnadu and heavy at isolated places over interior Tamilnadu.
♦ Fishermen are advised to be cautious while venturing into the sea along and off Tamilnadu coast.
01 December (Day 3): ♦ Heavy rainfall would occur at isolated places over Tamilnadu.
Weather Outlook for subsequent 4 days from 2nd December 2014 to 05th December 2014
♦ Rain/thundershowers would occur at many places over south peninsular India.
source : imd delhi morning report , let us wait and hope some good thing happens to chennai.
Light Drizzles In Tiruvutriyur
Kalpakkam,Thirukazhukundram getting good rains..
Since morning upto 10:30 cheyyur 4mm
What a twist Cola shows towers for Chennai. Ehsan might change his heart now
Yes Pradeep, Vela had posted this few hours back…Still lot of suspense left one should say..Not yet over by any means..
I badly want the rains to cross Ehsan’s 15 mm mark by 1st December.
Shall we pour some water into his Davis pro when he goes for his morning run tomorrow morning..He will be doubly happy seeing some 45 mm in his aws and declare -This system has lived upto its expectations..
lol
Kodavasal 6, muthupet 5, pattukottai 4 taragambadi 3cm till 8:30
Kodavasal records highest rainfall of 6CM in the past 24 hours…
http://www.imdchennai.gov.in/rf_daily.htm
The System has smartly built up its E/NE quadrant..If it pushes up a bit NW,Chennai has good chances.Even if it moves west,we are fine.What we do not want is a SW movement
System and HPA are fighting it out now
Low started intensifying….
Very Good Chances Of D???
very close to chennai coast the pressure zone does not favour. that is the reason the rain bearing clouds never moves within 50 KMS radius. it get struck at Markkanam & Kalpakkam pocket for more than few hours. Looks like the system is rebuilding near cuddalore latitude. we can have a look of 11.30 AM daundee satellite which can give better picture. But the sky is thickly overcast which signfies still the system is fighting with HPA near south andhra ,chennai coast.
ss
You are absolutely right..Battle is on
Who will be the winner?
Very light drizzle in Uthiramerur past one hour .
if the system moves little east to further open waters, chances of becoming a depression before this evening. let us see.
ss
was macro dirizzels near gunidy..a hour back..
Clouds Seen In 50km Away From Chennai
when hpa will move?
As Soon as low approaches chennai
Glad to see posts about rains and drizzle
it will speak for itself..see the mov..nw..as per 10.30..
No red spot. Thats wy it will only be moderate showers even if it nears coast. Chances of Intensification looks bleak
intensification will take place by eve..lets see how it turns up,if I,am not wrong..
No change ecm latest run I better turn off my alarm remainders for model runs 😦
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014112900/ecmwf_uv850_vort_ind_3.png
some thing wrong in this model..imd radar catches some TS..now..near Chennai L..
imd radar..
11.30 AM satellite picture shows lot of positive sign. this system would become depression and cross close to chennai coast by tomorrow evening. certainly chennai would get useful rains from evening. south tamil nadu down nagai, sunshine is totally back, as no clouds seen below nagai latitude.
ss
This system is coming nowhere close to Chennai coast.
R we talking of this system or next one? I am a bit confused
this system
Is there any next system KEA?? Lol
Cool winds are still blowing..HPA is on us..we need this to be pushed North
Its jst comin frm n as per charts
System position, please?
but how it will be pushed horth
We Will Push It
lol
No pressure is decreasing as per my AWS!!! 🙂
blood pressure increasing
Fight is going on. Who will win? High pressure or system
In all films in last hero won’s the fight surely our going to be winner 🙂 because it has started intensifying into WML as per partha sir..
What happened to D or DD as per Mr. RAMANAN?
He never said it would become a D or DD..Who told this to you?
WML?
Gnayana paarvai
Yes sir. I dont see any big rains from this sytem anywhere anymore. Satelite images suggests that the circulation is relly weak too. HPA should move away for this system to get organized. Or else there won’t be any meaningful rains from this sytem!! HPA is the real killer!! Do you atleast expect this to move away by Dec 1st week so that it paves way for next sytem?
latest LOW position, see the north band, which is weakening whene nearing the coast today morning.
the saturation was weak, when raising above MSLP.
HPA dominating 13N so far.
21 hours to go
In less than 21 hours the 3rd worst November in this century will come to an end.
Pressure rising trend
@ kea, what happen to weekly quiz results
KEA wins!!
not yet finished..
Poor response. Everyone was busy with this system. Thinking what to do about it
May be many avoided due to very tough questions,
One more reason for the poor response is, you called all experts to take participate, he he
Skip it, will see next week then
but results may be announced to encourage the participants.
Did you participate?
yes
Only few answered, its just for fun sake, but many thinking it’s prestige issue if they went wrong, so I think it might be the cause for low participants, in fact experts have to step in to encourage newbies/beginners, I have been telling this from the beginning itself
Waiting for right answers from Susa
okay
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/dwr/dynamic/doppler-caz.htm
Some ts entering 50km radius around chennai
All r dissipating
Ayya sami, atleast let us to have little fun
Lol. No chance of survival then
IST 11.30am
Everyone will be thinking it’s raining heavily in Chennai
why this kola very..we r in Chennai only..kea..
Just think from Outsider’s perspective!!
yes people are running Helter Skelter
It is the best climate to roam entire chennai, especially vandaloor zoo
From KEA Station
Current Pressure 1012.5 hPa, Trend: -1.4 hPa/hr
Max Pressure Recorded : 1014.8 hPa(10:10am)
Min Pressure Recorded : 1011.1 hPa (2:20am)