Rainfall over South TN is expected to begin by tonight and very heavy rainfall is expected. As the system moves NW, Chennai will start to receive showers from Friday onwards. Around 100 mm can be expected for Chennai from this system.
Rainfall over South TN is expected to begin by tonight and very heavy rainfall is expected. As the system moves NW, Chennai will start to receive showers from Friday onwards. Around 100 mm can be expected for Chennai from this system.
KeaWeather Archives 
Yeah me first to comment.hope we get our share of rains this time
Sec come sec served
Realky want this to pound ntn..I dont want to run for water next year
True!! same here.
Oh no this is current sat pic in accuweather app… Where is the clouds gone? Is that lpa exist in bay? ???
Is this a screen shot of your phone
What app is this?
Plz give list of other good apps to follow
This is accuweather app for iPhone
Lol looks like it dissipated am on world underground site – it also shows no sign of the clouds – it is very dis-heartening
to see the sorry state – are we in for a shock this nem season ?
Something wrong in weather dynamics in NEM-2014 season. Why bands are not merging around LLC in Indian ocean systems. 91B also the victim of similar double-patterns.
But west pacific ocean, we can not see such type of double patterns. The system of west pacific looks like single system only.
OLR: http://postimg.org/image/lcjdaml1r/
Bay LPA is disorganized. Clouds to south of SL, think we are in for a big disappointment unless weather decide the other way.
Don’t it will organize it self with the strong MJO it will fill the the system with clouding!
That’s why I have been saying all along. Don’t expect much
Kea-What if it organizes again? I am technically not like u experts but system will organize,disorganize and again it will organize,etc..so whats wrong in predicting? prediction doesn’t mean its much expectation..i don’t think guys like Rami,PJ,selva,maddy,partha were expecting much instead they predict the things based on parameters..
Nice windy with breeze
What happened no clouds at srilanka and at indian.coast.lp dissappeared???
vela versus rest,
Bloggers, This is a real test,
we dont want another useless tempest,
Hope we get finally rains to say the least
Hey u hav check imd satilite pic??
Omg omg…complete dissappeared lp.no single cloud in.5:30 imd satilite image
srikka, wait man, normallly system looks disorganised during night. it will pick up in no time.
But no clouds u seen the satilite image
It is common. you see through the day.
What happening i cnt post satilite image please post anyone imd 5:30 satilote image
Who said the convection has gone down. It looks organised now. So let us not worry
Yep looking good in some images.dont worry
Hey guys don’t panic clouds are there it will slowly start to organize itself today it will become WML,… at night time with the help of powerful MJO low VWS high CONVECTION WITH HELP OF MJO AND high SST may intensify into depression!! So don’t panic and MJO WILL FILL THE SYSTEM WITH FULL CLOUDS AND SEVERE CONVECTION!! IT IS NOW TOO FAR AWAY FROM COASTS IT WILL PICKUP THE CLOUDS!!! AND WILL MOVE N NW DIRECTION
Convection slowly building up. No need to be panic.
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/satellite/Asia/India/Infraredcolor.htm
Yes sir see my post below and tell Am i correct?
yep
Sir why the clouds are suddenly dissappeard
It happens with every system
early stage systems behave like that only.
Sir tonight it can become depression Am i correct?
Ok.
yes!! that’s how all system behaves
Towers maintaining their momentum..
click on the image for updated one..
appada ! Moojee ninnu pooju. Ippo nimmathe.
Good indication:
First time 500 mb vorticity is consolidating very well. This is good indication.
500 mb vorticity (latest): http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=vor2&zoom=&time=
500 mb vorticity (24 hrs back): http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=vor2&zoom=&time=-8
Its getting organize & intensify now…
Why is everyone panicking about disorganization ? It is natural with every LPA and even cyclone Nilam had such phases with less convection. It will be back up, nothing to worry
Susa, what about fresh convection developing at SE-BOB (due to MJO)?
Those one just seem to be like the bands of this one rami
so this convection will wrap into the system slowly . if so we can see good intensification š
Incase anyone wants to view, this vortex is expected to give us our rains. One more building up at SE BOB
http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/11/29/0000Z/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-275.01,9.98,1980
vorticies developing at all levels at SE-BOB, this is not expected by the models.
GFS did expect
Oh…ok
Don’t u think a resultant system of SW & SE BOB will emerge out of these 2 systems?
I think the next one would be an easterly wave like the one that gave heavy rains to S TN a few days back
OK, looks like that.
Yes I have seen circulation started in SE bay.
Slowly convention and clouds started to build up š
what no rains expected a ?
today topic is positive but blog is negative…
oo no….
no organization…
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/olr.htm
sudden clouds over there….system is getting organised..
Our king ECMWF expects system to intensify now and weaken slightly as it caresses past SL east coast into SW BOB..
so?the rain is expected to increase or decrease?
Increase
10 day precipitation outlook…
http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec6.html
LPA expected in SC BOB by Dec first week mid
some models predicting rain will start form 27 and heavy rain on 28th..
some models prediction rain only form 28th..which is correct?
Rain started at 27 th midnight or 28 th early morning.
started?
Bye bye iam going school
rains are coming, no holidays? š
Hi Ameen, are you related to the Bijilis of Pulimankulam?
4-8 inches snowfall forecasted for us by tomorrow :):(
same here in Calgary,canada..3-5 inches snowfall predicted tomm,1 inch on thu & 2 inch on Friday..
Normally next day after snow ill be very cold..Max temp -15 and min -28 on Saturday..
for that cooling only getting chill fever, heavy snowfall can be enjoyed.
yes true..good its very cold on week-ends and not on week-days..i will not go outside,bought all the cooking stuff last sunday..
This thanksgiving weekend in USA. Snowfall will be heavier in NE-USA. So people don’t like “white Friday” like “white Christmas”.
Our Sri’s forecast
Nice representative forecast.
Its similar to vela forecast I guess
PJ is there any reason for this track from sri?
Sri’s forecasted track:
What is the reason he says that lpa will move in this direction. Whereas model prediction is different
might be due to hpa/ridge orientation. I don’t know the exact reason.
Ok. Hope his prediction is not correct
Yes. u have to read his blog.
Good work
Last night gfs update remains same and also ecmwf http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/gfs_asia_072_precip_p24.gif
Foreca is increasing its towers 120 mm till November 30
http://www.foreca.com/India/State_of_Tamil_Nadu/Chennai
Foreca is an unstable builder
West-pacific system intensifying. This is our future’s BOB-system.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=westpac&sat=wgms&prod=ir&zoom=&time=
Hope it wont be like Durian! š
When it will be enter in.to our bob??
December 1st week
I think it will enter by higher lattitudevright??will go to n.ap??
Looks like everyone here is ready to welcome back the rains
Not ready but desperate, given the water problems…
Will chennai get rains from this system…
While we are still waiting for rains in our wettest month, SL seems to be getting the most of it… I hope the system is not stripped out of all the rains and sent to tn high and dry
System has regained its convergence and divergence.Its looking weak as the Northern rain bands have dissipated due to interaction with the eastern Srlankan landmass.As we discussed,the system will now slice through Srilanka.
Lets wait and watch where it emerges
IST 8.30am
IST 8.30am – Cloud Temperature
Very typical day ahead to determine the intensity and the amount of rain from the upcoming system
850mb Vorticity – http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/indian/winds/wm5vor.GIF
SOI Trend seems to fall further …
https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/
https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/
but rami mentiioned
”
1977 AP-super cyclone also don’t have any SOI support. When MJO bubbling at amplitude 2, then no need to think of SOI.
Interestingly IOD also neutral. So system will behave on its own.”
But MJO downed to amplitude 1.5. Need to whether MJO will further weaken or stay at same amplitude during next 2-3 days.
MJO: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/
That time other factor of QBO is Positive, but now its from Negative
ohh..adhu veraiyaa..
There are lot of factors involved in Nature Predictions
this is the main villan for 2014.
I have worried, that why models are not picking up this as a one of the conditions
But expecting QBO value to increase by 10 points by next update. So in next update expecting QBO to come around -15 to -10 from present -28.
1) Will the 97S dominate the system near SW BOB ?
2) 97S is started affecting by Shear – http://s25.postimg.org/co1n2e4dr/97_S.jpg
Central east of srilanka Polonnaruwa recorded high with 37.6mm,next Batticaloa where currently system is slicing recorded 32.3mm ending 8.30 hrs today..
http://www.meteo.gov.lk/
Check this image… Lots of Dry Air (Grey Colored) is entering in to Moisture’s Cloud, how can we expect the heavy rainfall
Vela,
Have you checked the image since yesterday?
I doubt, those dry air is pushed to northern side.
Yes, North and North eastern part – I am closely following…
Severe TS front across Florida.
http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/lutz-fl/33558/weather-radar/14604_pc
Hope, You are enjoying the rains
Yes, it poured all day today.
can someone pls post something?
lol..
Testing
After furious sessions yesterday, it’s time to relax
When halo rings the moon or sun
Rain’s approaching on the run.
The halo is caused by high cirrostratus (ice crystal) clouds that are indicative of an approaching warm front and predict rain within 20-24 hours. The U.S. Weather Service confirms that rain follows about 75 percent of sun halos and about 65 percent of moon halos.
500mb Vorticity – http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/indian/winds/wm5vor2.GIF
Vela is confident our NEM is 99% finished
North TN – NEM is over, Pending is 50mm before 31st Dec.
South TN will have continuous rains
Has it ever happened. You are going to be so wrong Velaji.
If I fail in my prediction
I will be happy
this is what captain maintaning for the last 2weeks or so, but he expect this till may 2015
Vela whats going to happen between Jan 1st and may 31st?
going by models, and experts views, we can expect much more than this, and this is what will be a good situation in facing the upcoming summer
For this i will post on 15th Dec, Need more time to look for different parameters
Vela n.tn nem over??
It is vela sir prediction. Lets hope it is wrong
Vela is burst with high pressure bomb on n.tn…
typo… 50 mm before 30th nov. š
Its 31st DEC only
NEM is erratic so no-one prediction is judgemental,so I am going with average NEM quota and according to that 200mm is left and we will get it..
Wont happen this…
Hope we will get a clearer picture today about the system and its formation / movement.
its starts from now on.
Cola will do what its best at
Yes it will increase its towers so much that you will never sleep for next 5 days
Chennai chances for rains increasing/ many here needs rain at any cost
Tidbits site is expected to be back along with chennai rains…on Friday !
again it will crash down due to our rush :):(
I was just about to post this!!! š
difference btween these two convection is high and distinct at mid to upper level
What is ur view Sel how much Chennai can expect. Vela is saying system is gone for Chennai.
sorry pj i never been into the game of predicting rains… but had a few interact with imd people, one well known identity is expecting 13cm rainfall on 29th and the other one expects 8cm on one of the day in this 4 day spell
so there will be a 4 day spell then š
and a 130 mm day
Sel, more than the quantum, I really appreciate your 1st part of the reply. “Never been into game of predicting rains”….
love your answer.sounds more matured to me
Slicing through a system ……..
Foreca reduced towers drastically..BBC taking heavy rains away….OVER..OVER…
is it. It shows how ur decoding foreca wrongly. They have increased. See the right hand side quantum.
It was 30 before…en kittaye Foreca’va pathi pesreengala??? š
no more comments. It was 80 yesterday. Today total is 120 mm.
Chennaikaaaaaaa?
they have increased the quantity, not reduced,
ODM dont argue with pradeep john he is a better expert than you
Arguing with someone doesn’t mean im comparing myself with that person or underestimating him!!! lol
North TN has to wait till the MJO moves to Phase 4. It will happen in next 48 hours.
As far as it is in phase 3 the 850HPA vector winds will get disturbed, the direction of convection will be colapsed above 10N latitude.
In next 36 to 48 hours time i am expecting the MJO to move to Phase 4, the 850HPA vector winds will be weaker upto 10N and beyond that in NTN there wont be any impact, hence NTN will get more rains.
Since MJO in phase 3 the LOW is still below 10N and it is in ususual place over SE of lanka, normally this time of the year low will be over SE or SW bay, but this time it is in adjoining Indian Ocean, this is because of MJO in Phase 3 and moving slowly into Phase 4.
I bet NTN is going to get more rain than STN starting after Thursday Mid Night.
It is an open challenge.
Good great news Partha
Awesome confidence partha. I am also with you
Alone Warrior for n.tn against experts
Jiee unga vaaila sugar podanum
Sugar vendam bad for health vellam podalam
karuppatti ( palm jaggery) is more healthy
Only a Harry Potter’s Elder Wand can bring a Band hereafter to Chennai !!! :O
no school today?
still JTWC yet to notify as any significant circulation. going by the cloud mass and its depth, they might come out with some interim report during the course of the day. now the system just spreads up to nagai coast, and it has to pick up northerly course to cover chennai, hope it will within few hours.
ss
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghazards/images/gth_full.png
As per latest GFS , rain may be delayed by a day.. It was yesterday showing it on 27 midnight. But i think now it would be friday evening. but the good thing is that the rainy days will be till 2 or 3rd. lets see
itcz line has moved north significantly, roughly near chennai latitude
that is due to intense divergence, which has pushed dry air since yesterday from CTN to NTN-AP border.
Part of circulation s under land interaction atm
opening batsmen did their job perfectly,( opening spell of n.e.m) , middle order is wavering, hope the coming one and the tail enders play well and gives us plenty of rains.
i’m saying this is purely for chennai rains only
There have been matches where tail enders won the game..:)
that’s what my expectation and hope,
Day 2: Entire Srilanka is under such huge Cloud mass…
Nothing more can we do, just wait for a day, we all know what will happen after that
mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_asia_096_precip_p36.gif
recent gfs shows a significant low.. only doubt is tat whether it is a actual low or any other vortex out from northern band
Precipitation forecast from 25th to 30th, more promising for NTN
partha appo chennai is in for a treat
Bapu, already 25 and 26 the gone
united states once recorded 305 mm rain in 1 hour….will same happen to chennai? or atleast chennai is capable of witnessing such rains? not this time but atleast once in life time?
the calmness going on in the blog. seems like calm before storm, ( storm in the sense rain, and comments)
navgem also changed its track for the system ..before it was a track moving below lanka into arb sea.
If this track comes true, NTN and SAP will be benefited..
The system only moved west, no movement north, and the bands are in Srilanka, So if it keeps moving West, only central TN will get maximum benefit. for Chennai nothing much.
NNW MOVEMENT IS HIGHLY POSSIBLE
It doesnt look like moving North and what do you think will be its path. GOM or East Srilanka?
LOL.
I hope they are wrong
???
I hope they’re right.;..
this is worse that yesterday. It was starting on 28th. Now its pushed to 29th.
R u happy with it?
I don’t mind as long as rains come…We have waited this patiently..Waiting for a couple of days more would not hurt…What will hurt is if these vanish…
I don’t know what all thing, but this is a very bad sign.
Let’s see š
Ehsan, remember our chat, pushing was expected.
Rains are unlikely to start before Saturday morning. Then how come holiday will be declared?
I hope i am correct
its better not to go behind the rainfall prediction numbers..they change it frequently
who knows for a change may be right!!
As per this the circulation center available in 81.7. How do we expect that it will cross TN? Even if it moves north, it will lose strength while cross SL.. Can some on clarify???? http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-277.50,0.00,550
One basic lesson i’ve learnt it ..never always go by nullschool. They have got 99B location terribly wrong.
Kelvin wave in Phase 4 already, expecting it to move to Phase 5 in a day…
good news…
if it enter phase 5..we will got how much benifit from this system?
OMG. Humidity is dropped to 50% ! :O What is happening? Is it due to HPA? or system is pulling moisture from Land!?
on course for thu night friday early morning start….
where r u going?
y r u so obsessed wit cola n foreca nos?? its jst the rain forecast we want , none can predict absolute nos
I think he has some important work this weekend. So he doesn’t want rains
The latest one – Seems it might get delayed further as its been foretasted to stay around Lanka by 29th
delaying is better now for us..its will push the dry air out ..& clouds gets more moisture ..
Heavy rains on fri & saturday for chennai.. check the intensity..
forcea predicts rains by thur very late night or Friday morn..
need to wait till today evening update to confirm..thur day night rains..but seems rains will start by Friday eve..
Kea if rains start on saturday and last for four days then Monday will be holiday. So dont worry about holiday
the system yet to pick up northerly track. now it is just near pamban latitude. next one day could be crucial. there is a possibility that it might move totally west and cross comrin sea. SO chennai chances are bleak. But things could turn out well, if the core system slightly moves east and cross northern srilanka to settle at Nagai latitude. Still JTWC yet to notify any significant system over bay.
ss
system may move nnw-nw soon..lets see..
IST 11.30am Update – Lot of Dry Air is started to Accumulate over North East Side of the System
so when is rain starting? Friday or Saturday or even earlier?
It should start Saturday so pa group get holiday on Monday
Looks like the system is moving NNE…
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/indo/main.html
NNE? LOL
Why not? Check it out!
so its going away from India?
No its initial movement
Do you want saudi visa . You can stay there as rains are very less there
Listen. I am not here to give any false information. What I write is what I see. Different ppl see things differently. Maybe I am missing something. Maybe I will be wrong.
okay kea what do you say about this system?
So I know I understood this is just your prediction. Sorry I thought you are just giving negative comments to everyone who predict rains
Last few frames
depression directly hitting cuddalore
once it crosses northern srilanka coast, it would strengthen in open waters of bay of bengal which can produce massive spells of rain right from nagai-chennai coast – may be from tomorrow evening.
ss
I thought showers were expected from today evening itself.
in chennai ah
if it has to cross northern srilankan coast, MJO should move into Phase 4 by today.
that is the challenge the system has, if MJO stays in Phase 3 even for 2 more days, then the system will go directly to GOM and Arabian sea..
plenty of chances to get some showers from this evening. it has to move bit north which looks like positive.
ss
Give this reply to kea
suddenly system changed its movement from west to north and also slightly nne dirction….why????
any link to track the co-ordinates and movement of the system?
It’s a sorry state of moment now… Low dumped all the rains in srilanka… I don’t think it will exist and give rains to chennai… Btw hpa also in higher side… So nothing is favourable as of now @ keaweather
we will get some leftovers dont worry.
5-10mm as your prediction… I agree with u.. Haha
no no more than that
if we go by the today topic at max, captain expects that we may get 10cm, which is good
Good genuine reply
really if you say then definitely it is going to pour
Pahh! š whatte word ! š
Dry air pushed above 14N as per latest WV insat.
then where it will be cross partha?
always the lower magnitude system would give lot of rains to srilanka and once it moves over to open waters, it would intensify. we can predict this would become a depression east of nagapattinam by tomorrow morning. high pressure ridge has moved considerably north giving way for the incoming system. already a high pressure zone previls over central india. we would certainly get our share of rains. There is a follower system emerges in to bay within 2 days, which can bring more heavy rains by middle of next week.
ss
This IMD update at 08.30AM says that system has moved north.
ā¦ The low pressure area over southwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining Equatorial Indian Ocean now
lies over southwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining areas of Sri Lanka & Equatorial Indian Ocean.
Associated upper air cyclonic circulation extending upto 2.1 km above mean sea level.
it it extends above 3.5 km only ..we can expect wml