Low Pressure Area forms in South West Bay, rains to commence from Friday onwards

Rainfall over South TN is expected to begin by tonight and very heavy rainfall is expected. As the system moves NW, Chennai will start to receive showers from Friday onwards. Around 100 mm can be expected for Chennai from this system.

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1,438 thoughts on “Low Pressure Area forms in South West Bay, rains to commence from Friday onwards

  1. Something wrong in weather dynamics in NEM-2014 season. Why bands are not merging around LLC in Indian ocean systems. 91B also the victim of similar double-patterns.

    But west pacific ocean, we can not see such type of double patterns. The system of west pacific looks like single system only.

    OLR: http://postimg.org/image/lcjdaml1r/

  2. Bay LPA is disorganized. Clouds to south of SL, think we are in for a big disappointment unless weather decide the other way.

      • Kea-What if it organizes again? I am technically not like u experts but system will organize,disorganize and again it will organize,etc..so whats wrong in predicting? prediction doesn’t mean its much expectation..i don’t think guys like Rami,PJ,selva,maddy,partha were expecting much instead they predict the things based on parameters..

  3. vela versus rest,
    Bloggers, This is a real test,
    we dont want another useless tempest,
    Hope we get finally rains to say the least

  4. Hey guys don’t panic clouds are there it will slowly start to organize itself today it will become WML,… at night time with the help of powerful MJO low VWS high CONVECTION WITH HELP OF MJO AND high SST may intensify into depression!! So don’t panic and MJO WILL FILL THE SYSTEM WITH FULL CLOUDS AND SEVERE CONVECTION!! IT IS NOW TOO FAR AWAY FROM COASTS IT WILL PICKUP THE CLOUDS!!! AND WILL MOVE N NW DIRECTION

  5. Why is everyone panicking about disorganization ? It is natural with every LPA and even cyclone Nilam had such phases with less convection. It will be back up, nothing to worry

  6. some models predicting rain will start form 27 and heavy rain on 28th..
    some models prediction rain only form 28th..which is correct?

    • same here in Calgary,canada..3-5 inches snowfall predicted tomm,1 inch on thu & 2 inch on Friday..
      Normally next day after snow ill be very cold..Max temp -15 and min -28 on Saturday..

      • yes true..good its very cold on week-ends and not on week-days..i will not go outside,bought all the cooking stuff last sunday..

      • This thanksgiving weekend in USA. Snowfall will be heavier in NE-USA. So people don’t like “white Friday” like “white Christmas”.

  7. While we are still waiting for rains in our wettest month, SL seems to be getting the most of it… I hope the system is not stripped out of all the rains and sent to tn high and dry

  8. System has regained its convergence and divergence.Its looking weak as the Northern rain bands have dissipated due to interaction with the eastern Srlankan landmass.As we discussed,the system will now slice through Srilanka.
    Lets wait and watch where it emerges

  9. When halo rings the moon or sun
    Rain’s approaching on the run.

    The halo is caused by high cirrostratus (ice crystal) clouds that are indicative of an approaching warm front and predict rain within 20-24 hours. The U.S. Weather Service confirms that rain follows about 75 percent of sun halos and about 65 percent of moon halos.

  10. North TN has to wait till the MJO moves to Phase 4. It will happen in next 48 hours.
    As far as it is in phase 3 the 850HPA vector winds will get disturbed, the direction of convection will be colapsed above 10N latitude.

    In next 36 to 48 hours time i am expecting the MJO to move to Phase 4, the 850HPA vector winds will be weaker upto 10N and beyond that in NTN there wont be any impact, hence NTN will get more rains.

    Since MJO in phase 3 the LOW is still below 10N and it is in ususual place over SE of lanka, normally this time of the year low will be over SE or SW bay, but this time it is in adjoining Indian Ocean, this is because of MJO in Phase 3 and moving slowly into Phase 4.

    I bet NTN is going to get more rain than STN starting after Thursday Mid Night.
    It is an open challenge.

  11. still JTWC yet to notify as any significant circulation. going by the cloud mass and its depth, they might come out with some interim report during the course of the day. now the system just spreads up to nagai coast, and it has to pick up northerly course to cover chennai, hope it will within few hours.
    ss

  12. As per latest GFS , rain may be delayed by a day.. It was yesterday showing it on 27 midnight. But i think now it would be friday evening. but the good thing is that the rainy days will be till 2 or 3rd. lets see

  13. opening batsmen did their job perfectly,( opening spell of n.e.m) , middle order is wavering, hope the coming one and the tail enders play well and gives us plenty of rains.
    i’m saying this is purely for chennai rains only

  14. united states once recorded 305 mm rain in 1 hour….will same happen to chennai? or atleast chennai is capable of witnessing such rains? not this time but atleast once in life time?

  15. The system only moved west, no movement north, and the bands are in Srilanka, So if it keeps moving West, only central TN will get maximum benefit. for Chennai nothing much.

  16. the system yet to pick up northerly track. now it is just near pamban latitude. next one day could be crucial. there is a possibility that it might move totally west and cross comrin sea. SO chennai chances are bleak. But things could turn out well, if the core system slightly moves east and cross northern srilanka to settle at Nagai latitude. Still JTWC yet to notify any significant system over bay.
    ss

  17. once it crosses northern srilanka coast, it would strengthen in open waters of bay of bengal which can produce massive spells of rain right from nagai-chennai coast – may be from tomorrow evening.
    ss

  18. It’s a sorry state of moment now… Low dumped all the rains in srilanka… I don’t think it will exist and give rains to chennai… Btw hpa also in higher side… So nothing is favourable as of now @ keaweather

  19. always the lower magnitude system would give lot of rains to srilanka and once it moves over to open waters, it would intensify. we can predict this would become a depression east of nagapattinam by tomorrow morning. high pressure ridge has moved considerably north giving way for the incoming system. already a high pressure zone previls over central india. we would certainly get our share of rains. There is a follower system emerges in to bay within 2 days, which can bring more heavy rains by middle of next week.
    ss

  20. This IMD update at 08.30AM says that system has moved north.

    ā™¦ The low pressure area over southwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining Equatorial Indian Ocean now
    lies over southwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining areas of Sri Lanka & Equatorial Indian Ocean.
    Associated upper air cyclonic circulation extending upto 2.1 km above mean sea level.

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