LP is expected to form in the next 2 days and will affect south TN. Showers can be expected for Chennai as well. We need to wait for some more time to find out our chances from this system.
LP is expected to form in the next 2 days and will affect south TN. Showers can be expected for Chennai as well. We need to wait for some more time to find out our chances from this system.
KeaWeather Archives 
Am waiting
BBC. still maintaining the same forecast.
The 2 vortices of 97S merged and better organized to one vorticity especially at 850 & 500 hpa levels. Still 500 hpa vorticity has to consolidate for 97S to intensify to a cyclone.
At present 97S is displaying well defined innermost divergent and convergence lines. So based on 2D-ABG-Model, I have drawn the final destination for 97S. If 97S intensifies to a cyclone, then it will travel in SE(more)/E(less) direction towards the new pink circle.
2D-ABG-map model track for 97S:
However chance of 97S to become cyclone is still low according to JTWC.
This system was located at 8.8S 72.4E 2330 IST 24/11.
Anything between 50 to 80mm for chennai will be a huge task accomplished…Again Central TN will be the topmost beneficiary
Noo 190mm to 230 mm easily we will get
I guess chennai will be benefited from northern band and it will extend till SAP.
Hi sir
Yes . tel me
Gfs brings it to our doorsteps
From the convection building up just to the east and SE of SriLanka, it looks like Chennai would add nearly 100mm to its NEM tally.
Noo easily we can achive 190mm to 230 mm because it is a low pressure!
Good morning, why only showers are expected for chennai? 😦
Good rains expected 190mm to 230 mm easily we will achieve!
Why posting the same for all…Very high expectation from you…
We can’t expect much until it moves NW.
NAVGEM completely dilutes the rainfall scenario as the Low moves NW. Other forecasts maintain considerable rainfall upto NTN/SAP.
MJO & SOI forecast:
MJO: During next 2-3 days, it will maintain zig-zag pattern. After 2-3 days, MJO will maintain its linear pattern. This forecast is based on ECMF along with all major dynamical MJO forecasts.
SOI: It was forecasted to decrease after 2 days, i.e from Wednesday due to passage of low-pressure area over Tahiti.
MJO-SOI phase diagram:
Sir can you do me a favour… That can u point in map where LPA is now and what is the movement WNW OR NW? where it will hit?
Still lot of confusion about LPA’s position due to double vortices. Today IMD will be going to announce LPA formation. Based on LPA’s position, its final target/LF depends.
Ok
Last nite gfs update http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/gfs_asia_096_precip_p24.gif
OMG..deluge situation. But it is going to target CAP-LF 😦 I could able to recollect 1977-November super cyclone based on its track (may not be that much intensity). But coastal TN will get good rainfalls.
Looks like ridge will be pushing hard in northerly direction.
What is this..hitting s.ap??
OMG LATEST GFS TRACK!!
OMG…Deluge situation 🙂
Bye iam going to school
Susa,
Don’t u think STR be pushing hard in northerly direction. This is possible if the system gains in intensity.
Yep, however it seems to close to land to intensify
But after 2 days, MJO will be making very straight line/linear path according to the most of the dynamical forecasts.
This MJO’s linear/straight path clearly indicates the support to be given to the system by direct attachment.
So if MJO attaches to the system, then it will become cyclone even on the land.
MJO-dynamical forecasts: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml
LPA set to move towards north TN which is really a good sign for chennai
Selva remember this from yday ? GFS predicts system in C BOB!!
Yeah.. another one.
Yeah.. another one.
why kea mentions only showers?
no heavy rain?
This system track is very unusaul. 1996 December 6th Cyclone, Ogni, Nilam, Madi and now this system. All others were cyclone. Lets see how this system turns out. Looks like its getting better and better of Chennai.
PJ, think without intensifying to a cyclone, this track is not possible.
Rao, can it intensify ? The system is partly in comrin sea / SW bay and moving towards north TN
It has to move through landmass.
PJ, But after 2 days, MJO will be making very straight line/linear path according to the most of the dynamical forecasts.
This MJO’s linear/straight path clearly indicates the support to be given to the system by direct attachment.
So if MJO attaches to the system, then it will become cyclone even on the land.
MJO-dynamical forecasts: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml
It will be a weird cyclone if it happens. I doubt whether it can form into a cyclone. Lets see. Depression may happen.
Huge towers shown on 28th by GFS meteogram. Just waiting for 28th.
OMG..what is this? GFS track shows LF close to Chennai. But no rainfalls 😦 how this is possible?
older run rami, wait for next update
It will come out in 1 hr, the neext GFS update
This meteogram will get updated only after the next run (9.00 am) is complete around 10.00 am. Cola around 10.45 am or 11.00 am.
Not older run maddy its 18 gmt run only.
Rao, In this meteogram 25 mm cap is there. Hope u missed maddy’ long post on how to interpret towers. This shows heavy rains for sure but dont quantify.
What is this new chart everyone talking about? Any links?
Here comes the person who is fond of towers. Ehsan, today cola towers will be very high.
They haven’t changed it in 3 days. Maybe some glitch
They will change it today. mark my words.
They are famous to only decrease it. Let’s see
I remember ur words they will reduce as days close by. This time they will increase it
ECMFW expected system to enter SW BOB
To be honest. UKMET / BBC got this track. Now ECMWF, GFS has followed this track.
I have a feeling the end result will be a dissapointment
You always run out of patience. This is the best run models are showing in this NEM. It cant go wrong. The system track has changed. Previously i too expected 100 mm in 2 days. Now seeing the track we may get more from this system.
True!! This time we got what we expected..may be the quantum is not approximate..it started with oct17 and then oct31-nov1, nov18..everytime the blog experts got it right..
PJ,
I am also having doubt b’cos SOI forecasted to decrease from Wednesday onwards due to passage of LPA over Tahiti.
In general most of the cyclones (99% cyclones) show the increase in trend in SOI. But very very rarely SOI will decrease at the time of a system to intensify to a cyclone (trade wind indicator).
For example 1977-AP super cyclone has decrease in SOI value. Surprisingly this cyclone initially targeted Chennai only, but later changed its track towards CAP due to combined Fujiwhara effect/abnormal northerly shift in the ridge.
1977-AP super cyclone: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1977_Andhra_Pradesh_cyclone
Why can’t this happen again? Luckily it is going to form very close in SW-BOB to target TN (unlike 1977-AP cyclone)?
This system is too close to landmass unlike 1977. It wont intensify.
Yes PJ. But IMD expecting LPA over SE-BOB? Is it right?
Is this SWM or NEM. 2nd time for this season, GFS is showing formation of offshore trough in west coast. They already got one similar trough in november when goa got over 500 mm.
The steering ridge, it shows why the system cant go beyond NTN/SAP and why they show remnant in Arabian Sea
arb sea system may be different one
Pressure may be rapidly falling as divergence is increased in tat particular area.. it will b great if llc starts from there.
IMD expecting a LPA to form today.
Hi all.
I could see some comments like “hype”.
Hype is created only when forecast is done without or unknowing the fundamentals. We are not forecasting without analysis for month end precipitation. We have spent lots of time in between our hectic schedule and given this forecast.
This time iam sure that precipitation is guaranteed and it is reliable.
My sincere suggestions to new comers is that, analyse 3 or 4 models and wait for its consistency in prediction for 2 to 3 days and if it is consistent in predicting the same and all models are closer then you can be sure of that situation to happen.
Henceforth before saying hype lets do self assessment.
வட மேற்கு மாவட்ட ங்களுக்கு மழை உண்டா? எவ்வளவு? எப்போது?
Partha, can we expect the track like this?
Rami,
I am not sure about the track since the intensity of this system is unpredictable.
The system may be on the eastern side of lanka and then towards central coast of TN as per some models.
OK, Partha
true partha.. after analysing lot of things, when we see any chances favouring us, it cant be taken as hype..
OK. Even if we create a hype, what is wrong with it? Chennai is struggling with deficiency in the middle of NEM. If a system is going to bring rain, naturally I will get hyped up if not all.
It sends the wrong signal. Blog is read just not by us. Reach is more than 5,000 ppl. Last time we put the topic it’d going to be wettest day. And it fell short, I know a lot of ppl who laughed at our forecasts and said it flopped badly
So it is going to be Friday when this blog will be on fire. Chances of cyclone is lesser as it is near the land mass and of low SST. But I don’t think that we can write off the cyclone or DD scenario now itself.
Alert… I am ready with 2 powerful tools to push the forecasted system towards TN-LF 🙂
What are they
what more else?
Then count down starts
You may take the help of Pa group if you need man power.
ha…ha…
Pa group already activated their magnetic field to grab the system
One more alert…system has very bright chances to escalate in N/NW direction towards TN, instead of Arabian ocean.
This system can be considered as “very rare type system especially in the track”.
thats cool 🙂
great if it happens
llc may be seen south s.east of lanka .. some clouds hav already started showing signs of curving
“”some clouds hav already started showing signs of curving”” This is good for NTN ?
tat is a sign of developing system..
curving into the llc
system getting organized I guess..
getting much better.
Any report about STN rainfall. Sat images shows dangerous rain over there!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/Basin_NIndian.html
Partha/selva
Pls see my reply below regarding hype
Omg, blog is heating up for another day, with spicy things cropping up already
Jeetu can we expect some good spell for chennai….
Very much I still believe 150+ mm
wow that is great if it happens.but for now it looks more south based.
We will have impact
hope for a good one
I agree with what you are saying about the topics went wrong in real life situation.
The point i have said here is, when all models are grouped and saying the same thing, the situation has to be the same in reality.
Last time may be one or two models would have predicted and that would have failed, but this time GFS, ECMWF and others are saying the same.
KEA,
we are the one who predicted NEM onset first.
we are the one who predicted NILOFER to dissipate in sea.
we are the one who predicted 10-15CM rain possible in chennai through 99W.
Will you once again say it as “HYPE”?
captain,are u the one who used the word “hype”? i cant believe.. anyway i said tat generally
Blog experts forecasted good rain on Oct-17,18 and it rained,also on oct-31,Nov-1 it rained as forecasted..only last time it flopped a bit..2 out of 3 times we won..what is there to laugh anyway?
@guest11k,
U recently mentioned decrease in SOI aid decrease in trade wind strength. According to arctic Elnino-forum, SOI will decrease from Wednesday onwards. So easterly trade winds indirectly make the system to feel in enhancement in the cross equatorial W/SW winds flowing into the system. So finally system will to take “very steep N/NW track”.
In addition
Most importantly the following 2 important factors influence the forecasted system to take very steep N/NW track towards TN-coast (similar to 1977-AP super cyclone):
(1) IOD forecasted to stay around neutral (+ 0.23 now), which doesn’t show any effect on the forecasted system. So forecasted system will behave on its own.
(2) MJO’s amplitude around 2, will enhance the W/SW wind burst, only to help the forecasted system to take very abnormal steep N/NW track.
Note:
But this type of phenomenon is very rare and can not expect on regular basis except in Elnino/Elnino like yrs with neutral IOD and powerful MJO amplitude >2.
Previous historical example for this is 1977-AP-super cyclone.
IST 8.30am – Satellite Image Update
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/Basin_NIndian.html
this animation appears like circulation exactly south of lanka
recent gfs update sticking to its previous pic .system taking steady north-nw track after brushing lankan mainland http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_asia_078_precip_p24.gif
yes this is the consistency we have to look for before giving some predictions to bloggers, this time it is bingo on target.
selva what about chennai is anything in store for us.
n.tn including chennai bound to get heavy rains as per the forecast..the intensity and the total days of rainfall depends on the movement of the system wich is now seems to b favourable for entire coastal tn
selva if the lpa is moving n nw then it is really good news.
yea
its not simple N/NW track. Its very steep N/NW track almost paralleling the TN-coast till chennai.
so u think that it might move towards AP .kindly explain please.
via TN-inland
From this system we may get only dry from inlands..
nature has the last say in anything, if experts expect some thing going to happen, and in the run if it fails there is nothing wrong, in the interpretation of the experts. if any one who laughs/ weeps at all, then it should be with the nature, not the other way.
12 hr precipitation chart of 29th .can v use the word deluge here for tis pic? http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_asia_099_precip_p12.gif
The circulation is SSE of SL
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-275.12,3.41,1550
organised!!
Alert…
Be on the toes, something similar/mimic to the 1977-AP-suspercylone’s track is on the cards. But only difference is that the present system moving very close TN-mainland due to its proximity to the land.
wonderfull Boss. Thanks..
perfect scenario rami, good work…
i could see the steering winds to take this system towards, i still have some faith that it may concentrate into a depression.
MJO (amplitude), SOI (decreasing trend though very rare) and IOD (neutral) pattern exactly mimcking 1977 cyclone’s scenario.
sir, if it moves inland, what will be the effect in coastal areas?
I am seeing some positive vibes from you! 🙂 Thanks!
If really something there, we always be in +ve mode to bring rains. Who will hate rains? that too NME-rains.
agree with u sir…..
What about the chance of getting this like what we had like Dhanuskodi cyclone?
OMG.. We don’t want that. Depression is more than enough. Do you want disaster?
Oh no intensity may vary due to land proximity.
not really, just asked whether we have any such chances!!!
when dhanushkodi disaster happened, we don’t have better communications, but now the situation is far better, hence we can reduce the loss to some extent.
good work rami
@rs-rao – What is the reason for steep N-NW movement ? Can you please explain that again ?
the steering winds are the cause for this direction…
Thanks Partha.
U missed my early comment as below:
@guest11k,
U recently mentioned decrease in SOI aid decrease in trade wind strength. According to arctic Elnino-forum, SOI will decrease from Wednesday onwards. So easterly trade winds indirectly make the system to feel in enhancement in the cross equatorial W/SW winds flowing into the system. So finally system will to take “very steep N/NW track”.
In addition
Most importantly the following 2 important factors influence the forecasted system to take very steep N/NW track towards TN-coast (similar to 1977-AP super cyclone):
(1) IOD forecasted to stay around neutral (+ 0.23 now), which doesn’t show any effect on the forecasted system. So forecasted system will behave on its own.
(2) MJO’s amplitude around 2, will enhance the W/SW wind burst, only to help the forecasted system to take very abnormal steep N/NW track.
Note:
But this type of phenomenon is very rare and can not expect on regular basis except in Elnino/Elnino like yrs with neutral IOD and powerful MJO amplitude >2.
Hope everyone is set for the next set of rains. But looking at the pattern something seems to have shifted. SW Monsoon seems to be more reliable than NE monsoon in the last few years. Also the number of depression/cyclones seems to have reduced. Either El Nino or Global warming is causing this.
I remember you predicted huge number this NEM. What happened to it. Do you have still hopes on that.
Yes i do..i still think we will touch 140 by end of this season.
Sampath,
The forecasted system won’t grow into powerful system. It may attain D/DD/minimal cyclone. Main reason for this is weak system (though IOD styed at neutral) may be due to -ve QBO (Quasi biannual oscillation index).
-ve QBO won’t support powerful cyclones. But always there might be exceptions like SIDR-2007 or Hudhud-2014 etc, which crossed comprehensively.
QBO-index: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data
Thanks Boss!!!
Latest update on MJO,
MJO likely to move to Phase 3 by month end, till then it will stay in Phase 3 with amplitude of 2.
The strong MJO may trigger the upcoming low into an organised system to a D or DD.
Latest IOD is 0.07
Latest SOI is -7.17.
Expecting SOI to fall sharply today.
IOD is 0.07. OMG…dead neutral. so I am expecting it may become cyclone also, by keeping MJO’s amplitude in mind.
If indeed this system turns cyclone or DD , we are in for a good time. Hope it gives copious rainfall to TN and south AP.
yes rami, this is why i am expecting it to become an organised system in bay.
it is high time for a cyclone( even if it is 35knts)
@ jayachandran erode.
western districts like salem , erode have a chance to get good rainfall if the system tracks like it is predicted. Keep your fingers crossed.
Extremeky windy surface winds r strong
Sriram, the steep north west movement is due the influence of Burma HPA and then as Indian HPA moves over North Central bay, it makes sure TN is hit
Thanks PJ. Got it.
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/insatsector-ir.htm
Cloud mass moving NW..Drizzle bands visible 120 km S/SE..
Ehsan what is wrong with hype, Chennai hardly gets 3 systems like this in a year. I have already said this, this system looks better than all the others we have seen in this NEM.
Avar kedakaaru Anna…don worry about him.. 😀
Please don’t hype up the hype issue : )
“Hype” na enna Vortic??? 🙂
Exaggerated or extravagant claims made
oho 😀
Dont worry vorti., Captain is my friend. But Captain has to understand vorticob. He only wants dry weather.
He had a lot of bad experiences durnig NEMs like us and may be slightly frustrated.
To add to partha, Keabloggers are the one who predicted that Nilofer wil not hit Gujarat. We were the one who told the november depression system wont go to Burma / Odisha / West Bengal. We dont go by models blindly, we have common sense too. No one in this country has experts like us. We have diversified experts and this blog is special. So Ehsan dont degrade your own blog by using words such as hype.
The only thing keabloggers judge is failure of NEM with respect to only Chennai rains. This perspective has to change.
I agree.. chennai is not TN and chennai doesn’t grow rice or Sugarcane..It only consumes.
but we need rain for drinking water, which is essential
Solution is RWH. even in worst seasons of NEM ,we get an average of atleast 40 CMs. This year at my home, the water level is just 2 ft from Surface (in the well). It was at 16 FT in May 2014. All I do is simply collect all water and direct it towards the well (after some small treatment).
good thing,
your point is valid but 1 out of 10 people in Tamilnadu were residing in Chennai..literally atleast 1 person from each big family is living in and around Chennai for survival..water is basic necessity and we are asking the basic thing..also everyone were happy whenever it rains in delta district,madurai,thirunelveli area..
Foreca extending the heavy rains to Saturday also..very good reason for increasing the hype 😛
ODM has come up with his foreca again??
Please concentrate on your catamarans..
Yes Yes…i have withdrawn the Quikr ads…Catamarans are back in Velachery lake raring to go!!!
Coast looks to get good rains. Key question is whether rains will penetrate atleast 50 Km inland. In the delta, heavy rains have been confined to Tiruvarur / Mayavaram line, so much so that while Mayavaram had a near deluge this time, Kumbakonam has had only less than normal rains. Same with Chennai and Poondi reservoir.
Ehsan when i put wettest day. Nunga got around 90 mm and we had one of the most intense rains. Of the 120 mm i predicted, we got 100 mm. What else you want. Many places in Chennai got over 100 mm for 2 days. Chennai is not nunga only. It was wettest day for many other places.
If you feel i am hyping things without understanding prediction u can say it directly. I never go by model blindly. u dont know how many sites i refer before putting something. If u still feel I will quit this blog for ever.
You did not even believe it will rain that day. Thats the sad part.
No no you please dont quit. Then this blog will be useless
keep cool friend,
I think what Kea was referring to is the slip between the cup and the lip – more that we have been accustomed to when it comes to NEM. Better to moderate the expectations.
Cool down boss..All inputs, Yours, Sel Fun,Partha,Rami ,KEA,ODM and SUSA ,make the Blog Lively.
PJ we got the rain right, but the wording wrong. By saying wettest day it send a wrong signal to all. They all were expecting huge figures for Chennai.
It was wettest day in Chennai i can prove it. The over all chennai average of the 10 stations was one of the highest of the year. You can check it your self. That was one of the wettest day in Chennai.
Can u prove it, that it was not one of the wettest days ?
a normal follower just sees the nunga and meens figures. They don’t have time to go over other stations in detail.
I can guarantee that that night wasn’t the wettest for either.
U can compare with 8,30 am figures. It was one of the wettest day. This blog is not only nunga and meena. Why are u narrowing it yourself.
I just said, you and me can gain access to other stations. But what about others? Do newspapers report these stations?
Then why are we maintaining the rainfall thread in forum. Its for them to acess these and asses how widespread the rains where. Thats where kea blog is ahead of IMD.
imd gfs chart..
Increased tropical activity over the Indian Ocean
This past week, cloudiness was enhanced over the equatorial Indian Ocean and generally suppressed near the equator over South-East Asia and the western Pacific Ocean. This is a typical pattern for an active Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) over the Indian Ocean, as is currently the case.
Climate models indicate the MJO will remain active and continue to move eastwards in the coming days, entering the region to the north of Australia by the middle of next week. This means there is likely to be a slow transfer of the focus of tropical activity from the tropical Indian Ocean to the region north of Australia (including much of equatorial South-East Asia and the western Pacific Ocean) with the movement of the MJO. Usually, the MJO passes too far to the north of Australia to impact on Australia’s tropical rainfall at this time of year. Some models then indicate the MJO will weaken, while others suggest it will remain active and continue its eastward progression towards the western Pacific Ocean.
@Pradeep John, Anna Nagar West:disqus and Other bloggers,
First of all we have to understand that this blog is not read by a few of us. The reach is over 5,000. By saying Chennai will get 250, 400 & 500 mm from every system we are just spreading false information. This news soon spreads to others. I request to all especially the newcomers, please refrain from posting big numbers which we all know we wont get. At the end of the day we all have a responsibility to give the correct information to all.
I strongly support the same….
Super. Being socially responsible.
It is definitely wrong to predict the false numbers knowingly; but expecting more rains and quantifying the expectation in cms could be tolerated. New comers only expresses their expectation only, they don’t assert.
When did i say that we will get 400 mm or 500 mm. There are new comers who want rains. They will put their own quantum. They say to the kids in this blog or new comers dont put any quantum. This is their 1st time in blog. Based on failures they will learn.
If you want to go just by only models. Then u cant expect more than 20 mm at any point of day. Is models right. If i am creating title this friday, i am sure that i will pu that Chennai we will get over 100 mm by saturday 8.30 am. What else we should put like imd heavy rains at one or two places.
“One of the Wettest day awaits Chennai – Be prepared” PJ this title was misleading.
Layman just reads the heading.
It was wettest day in Chennai i can prove it. The over all chennai average of the 10 stations was one of the highest of the year. You can check it your self. That was one of the wettest day in Chennai.
Can u prove it, that it was not one of the wettest days ?
yes that day cannot be forgotten . We got sharp 3 CM rains in the evening when everybody was leaving their office. Not all were prepared that day. That day marked the end of the lull in rains.
I think its in semantics – “wet day” versus “wettest”. Use the word wettest and expectations soar.
all will believe, what expert says, not the words of lay man, or new comers,
Anyone who is reading the blog consistently should know the difference between predictions from newcomers and experts. They have to take the call based on that. Lets move on.
KEA, never did PJ or any experts said 300 or 400. In the last predication WP99, Selvan Fun predicated around 80 MM and PJ mentioned 120 MM.. All the ‘Rain mongerers’ who joined this blog just before the Rain day,mis-understood and gto frustrated.. They all expect to rain every minute and second. I don’t think the experts never Hyped up anything.
Sounds crazy.. @keaweather.. you need to enjoy the errors in forecasting models.. nothing wrong in predicting extreme values.. if you want to be safe add disclaimers.. good thing is bloggers are active.. atleast i’m loving it.. who cares about modeling errors..
I can say discussions in this blog are far more effective than watching GFS or CMS or Parallel GFS runs.. I still can’t forgot ,how they(GFS model) predicted Ashobaa… which never really happened yet
statistical models are built on the concept of errors itself.. i dont find a point @keaweather argument..
Alert…2D-gyric map model diagram derived…..stay tuned 🙂
Tropical Pacific Ocean moves closer to El Niño
The Pacific Ocean has shown renewed signs of El Niño development. International climate models expect this situation to continue, with most models predicting values near or beyond El Niño thresholds for the next two to three months. The latest NINO3.4 is +1.1 °C and the 30-day Southern Oscillation Index value to 22 November is −8.5. This is the highest weekly anomaly for NINO3.4 since March 2010.
Regardless of whether or not El Niño fully develops, some El Niño-like impacts remain likely. For northern Australia, this means an increased likelihood of drier than usual conditions over the coming months, including an increased chance of the monsoon commencing later than usual.
Vela – If this is confirmed ELNINO ,will this extend still 2015 . Will 2015 NEM also gets affected by this or when 2015 NEM starts,La Nina will follow ?
Yes… it will expected to dominate 2015
But I am actually putting the 3 year rule. 2012 and 2013, NEM was dull. This year it seems to be OK,but very less rainy days. 2015 should be Normal too with more rainy days.. 2016 should be a Bonanza year (Similar to 2005).
good observation and analysis. 2015 or 2016 can exactly mimic 2005.
Reason is so simple even Atlantic ocean is suffering without less number of hurricane like 2002-2004 period. 2005 saved both BOB and Atlantic seasons.
Have a look at 2D-ABG-model diagram-1 derived from kalpana satellite picture (25-11-2014, 3: 45 AM).
Notes:
(1) Satellite picture at 12:00 AM is not that much clear to draw the innermost divergence and convergence lines.
(2) In this picture too innermost divergence line is not consolidated well. So waiting for next updates whether system will display any clear lines.
2D-gyric map model diagram-1: http://s13.postimg.org/ouhrtykl3/sector_ir.jpg
waiting for next probable picture 🙂
Perfect ..
This blog has MGR,Sivaji,Rajnikant,Kamalhaaasan,Vijay,ajith,dhanush,simbu,vijay sethupathi,santhanam,etc..also funny vijaykant as well..all in all in one blog..but who is who? gr8 going..
What about herioines ? only few were there and they are missing..
Today it was our Captain who started an all out attack, he is sensing that i will hype this weekend rains. If hype for higher rainfall needs to be punished. Then hype for less rains needs to be avoided too. In the eyes of outer world when we predict 20 mm and in actual if Chennai gets 100 mm then it looks bad too.
Strict captain vijaykant..:)
this is called surprise rains.
When we predict 100 and get 25 mm, it is called failure
When dit it happen. 100 mm and 25 mm. I think no experts predicted like that.
thanks for ur friend accept
@pradeep the point is to forecast.. errors will be analyzed later.. i fully in sink with forecasting extreme values, which adds value.. forget the errors..
N-number of possibilities for a still born system
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/comparengp/14112412/M13.html
OMG…. we are far better than these models. I can draw only 2 tracks (or maximum 3 tracks) based on MJO & SOI probabilities. GOD save these models.
Funny part is that even MJO & SOI forecast won’t change this much drastically like models’ cyclones’ tracks.
Sad news coming in from the SCG, where Australian batsman Phil Hughes has been hit on the head by a bouncer and now rushed to hospital battling for life kept on ventilator
Yes I too heard. He was hit on heart and then collapsed
Head injury heart attack collapsed face first into pitch thy couldn’t confirm he was alive 😦
Not heart attack. He was hit by ball near his heart and neck.
Phillip Hughes has been taken to hospital after a sickening blow to the head left him motionless on the SCG pitch on day one of the Sheffield Shield match between New South Wales and South Australia.
No it is not head. It is heart confirmed by cricket Australia board
Omg heart attack? he is only 25 years old
Not heart attack. Ball hit him near his heart and neck
oh okay
head or heart?
Heart
very sad 😦
very sad..
Omg very sad
whose bouncer it was.
Sean abbott
Albott. New south wakes bowler
Now Michael Clarke rushed to hosp condition vry critical hope hes OK 😦
Do you have that video
No oly footages still
Immediate torrential rain is need for this blog to cool down
@ KEA and @ PJ , 120 MM on any day is a ‘Wet’ day and defintely one of the ‘Wet ‘test’ day in these ‘testing’ times of NEM. If ‘Rain mongerers’ hype it out ,and I don’t think ,you both should take responsibility for that.
Yes. Sriram. Ehsan maybe put a rule to keablog that estimation like 500 mm or 300 mm or 200 mm without basis should be avoided.
But just remember its a open blog.
then what is the need for a poll for the quantum of rainfall, before a system.
No need for a rule I guess as Nobody did that. Only few of new folks ,mentioned 250 ,300 etc. It never came from experts..
Ehsan should not have started this in open blog.
PJ I am surprised by reactions here. you are after all trying to predict the most unpredictable with scientific flair. I have always been fascinated by sincerity & dedication in demystifying the nature you people ( 4 or 5 of u) have shown. Going by your reactions one or other of IMD must b resigning every day. Keep cool and the good work going.
It was an friendly debate Ganesn. Between friends. No hard feelings.
Is kea becoming too serious with his comments.
i sincerely believe this is a healthy debate between 2 experts
Yes. nothing to worry. Kea words wont make me to quit this blog. His strength is dry weather.
You got the point finally
good, your predictions are to the core, and you should continue this, for the benefit of bloggers
Sir,you’re predictions are one of the best, im glad that you are not quitting this blog
Motivation like this are needed arun. I am father to kid. Spending time in office, home and rainfall is getting huge problem for me.
He cannot quit, I will go to his house and drag him to blog, engal anna
Powerful point by kea
why adding fuel to the fire jeetu ?
This matter is 50-50 evenly poised, no fuel supplying, I am giving my view, but 500mm is surely a hype
500mmm? :O who predicted 500mm?! 😀
Only kea knows who said
Boss..Podhumm..Intha HYPE matter patthi rombave pesitomm..
Its ok, I just now logged in
hey….jeetu…some are predicting the system may cross stn and into arb sea….no effect for ntn ah
We will have impact
wat about nw movement?
Very much possible
so it will hit ntn ans sap???
At present I am sure that we will get rains
Safe answer
True indeed
jeetu we lost already srikkanth from this blog.
Oh no
New system has transfused blood in the blog!
Yesterday Rami and Sel and today, PJ and KEA
you forget the search for ODM yesterday
debates between experts gives us technical information about weather, which is very useful, and always welcome.
All started by rami around midnight, still some smoke is coming out
Where are you odm, some thing is again burning in the blog, bring fire extinguisher while coming
He must be in school
Really
Phil Hughes at SCG
He came back to play?
he is in hospital.
Undergoin head surgery to ease of bleeding pressure in brain
Oh sad
he was in contention to take Clarkes spot, if he cant play 1st test
even clarke also named in squad, but still doubtful, any how 1 week to go
if he wants to play the first test, then he should play friday’s two day match to prove his fitness,- marsh, selector
where is pvpm srikanth?
He quit the blog
Thats bad.any idea why? he used to post very good insights.
he started his own group in Facebook
About what
weather, what else?
Omg
ok thanks.
NEXT 16 HOURS IS VERY CRUCIAL…KEEP FINGER CROSSED…. IT MAY DETERMINE
INTENSITY AND TRACK OF UPCOMING SYSTEM
@Feature comment: gud point..that is wat I was saying all along.exaggerating and creating a big hype is not correct…All I asked is to be practical and realistic abt rains.
water vapour..
Video of Hughes incident https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=GSphoku9rlQ&feature=share
Who are all get injured first, Clarke or huges
First Clarke and Now Huges
Kea,
I agree with your featured comment on Numbers given by bloggers.
Yes we have to avoid giving numbers.
But KEA, you yourself participated on the contest before 99W, you said we might get 150MM.
Lets all say that we will get good rainfall in future, but lets stop predicting numbers.
As i always say the number is never going to be nearer to actual realised.
Sites like foreca and cola may say some numbers , we should read that as “Light”, “Moderate”, “Heavy” or “Very Heavy”.
This is the only way we can assure that day is going to be a Overcast day, Wet Day or Dry Day.
Let us first stop conducting a contest and asking bloggers to give their predictions.
as per bbc news ytd late night rains may pick up by Friday and also hindu says the same..for Chennai..
now trp of kea wud have increased by hype
This is all a planned drama to increase the hype. You are smart. Ehsan is smart too.
It seems following Vijay TV’s formula!!!
Ennama ippadi panreengale ma..
lol!!!
I remember one other drama between PJ and someone long time back, ahead of a system i believe. Do you remember the day and quantum of rains from the system 🙂
92B coming in few hours..
Enga pa inga ya
It will b named as 92B soon, as the winds wud hav picked up due to continuous thunderstorm formation.
Fine, not only in that core area in bay around srilanka, meanwhile winds in chennai also picking up
to b invest area yet
You are always right on the target.
@ kea
Where is the weekly quiz corner, its necessary when something cooking in bay especially
thanks for reminding. Its a tough one this week
I am waiting
http://forum.keaweather.org/viewtopic.php?f=42&t=377&p=12711#p12711
goodluck
As expected Cola increased their towers. Meteogram
Cola GFS – 120 mm in two days.
NOAA GFS – 95 mm in two days
NCEP GFS – 90 mm in two days
NCMWRF GFS – 85 mm in one day
GFS – 80 mm in two days
Foreca – 60 mm in two days
NOAA Parallel GFS – 50 mm in one day
by seeing this i understand for 2 days we can get anything between 50-150mm.. if <50mm i be disappointed
Its time for Quiz #4. Its challenging. PJ and other experts, why don’t you take part this time around?
http://forum.keaweather.org/viewtopic.php?f=42&t=377&p=12711#p12711
OMG it has become featured comment. Atleast my name could nave been removed.
wasn’t it a featured comment for past 2 hours until now?
Big name, so big highs, arasiyalla idhellam saatharanam pa, PJ rocks
where pj rocks in the FC
In agumbe, vaanga sir, you are the fire box, many are calling me as a fuel supplier
any update on system for NTN/Chennai.
Still system yet to form
IMD:
Under the influence of upper air cyclonic circulation over Equatorial Indian Ocean and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal, a low pressure area has formed over southwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining Equatorial Indian Ocean. Associated upper air cyclonic circulation extends upto 2.1 km above mean sea level
Why are we arguing since morning?
If someone says the prediction is HYPE, let them say, what is the loss?
Finally if it rains, it benefits all of us; let’s not bother about the views of bloggers who say it is a HYPE. They have their opinion. Let’s all be together in inviting rain. I don’t want the see the peacefulness is affected by some unwanted issues.
Of course, we all are here to welcome rain and enjoy
Actually @Partha I would say you are one among those who create hype. Can you output how many times you put your MJO forecast ended up actually creating rain for Chennai this year ?
if you revisit my page and see, i would say that MJO will enter this phase or that phase, but i never said it will rain because of MJO entering.
this is the first time i am saying that since MJO in Phase 3 and moving towards Phase 4, we might get a strong system, because phase 3 and 4 are good position for us to get rains, that too phase 4 is more advantage.
Fine. But why put a MJO link if you cannot link it to precipitation ? Is it not better to study and the correlation between MJO and it’s impact on NEM precipitation ? If you do not know you can ask the question between MJO and precipitation probability for NEM.
it is just a forecast i am giving, just the status of MJO, nothing else, if i said that it will rain, i agree with you, dont think that when MJO enters a phase it will rain, it is not like that.
if i want to know i will ask a question in the forum itself, i never deny myself.
I am just trying to understand like everyone else what is meant by “quality” of a post. To me less posts with more definitive information is better than posting a periodic update of MJO or any other phenomenon. And if you are asking me the connection between MJO and NEM is nebulous. But people here respect you as an “expert” and think if you post an MJO link you must be expecting rainfall. So if you taper down the number of your posts your comments would be very welcome.
nowadays i am not posting that much of a comments.
if you see that it is very difficult for me to post 15 comments in a day is tough.
in terms of MJO, everyone is posting.
for example.
everyone is posting SOI index for the day.
enso index for that week.
iod index for that week.
mjo is the same like that, so no worries, once people starts learning they would be sure that MJO is not the only phenomenon which brings precipitation, it is also the other factors which has to support.
i tell you one thing, during SWM if MJO enters Phase 1 itself then it triggers SWM winds over Arabian sea, once it enters Phase 2, then precipitation will increase, but during NEM it is totally different since the wind direction changes to NE. The wind comes from south china sea, hence there should be a trigger in Phase 4 or Phase 5 to get us the convection activity, hence the current MJO will start moving from Phase 3 to Phase 4, that movement itself will get us precipitation, also SOI will be near to -5 will be an added advantage for us.
there is no feature in the featured comment
You want moderator postion for this blog?
Wow great to see KEA blog “churning”. Paying attention to “quality” rather than “quantity” will raise credibility.
Hi Am-met,
What’s your take on the upcoming system. System forecasted to take N/NW path. Is it because of decreasing trend of soi( indication of weakening of easterlies) and strong cross equatorial flow.
@guest11k – I do not know who you are but I have not looked at a forecast for Tamil Nadu for months as my work has kept me busy literally all around the clock. But I will be back in Chennai on 1st December and I will be updating myself these next few days slowly.
Ammet welcome again. But how can kids can post with quality. They will have to blog along with us, so that they will learn. there has to be a balance. Once this thread closes for the day, no one is going to come and visit it again.
Two days ago a kid posted a cyclone track without any basis we encourage him to put track with reasoning. We dont have any authority to stop any kids from posting.
Novak where are u…..
@Pradeep John – not sure who this “kid” is. But it looks like some kind of moderation would be required otherwise credibility will take a nosedive. And even experts can make mistakes.
There are over 5-10 school going kids who post in this blog.
Pj, you have given a very good advice to him. By the way who is goine to take the track seriously; drawn badly in word paint. They be encouraged at the same time and taught .
I would really encourage those kids, who are part of this blog, no matter what they post, these kids will be inspired by weather experts and could become a scientist in this field.we had see some smart mind kids in this blog, I would req the experts to give your best and encourage to blog..anything about weather related.
Thala will come at the end only, but I am sure he will come up with a big para
Absolutely PJ yes I concur with your views on this. Let us not put spanner in the works
Exaggeration problem exists everywhere…for instance when people say ” In my childhood days it used to rain continuosly and frequently for 40 50 cms a day during NEM” the frequency with which this was happening is the same even now. Just one instance they might remember something like that and they say it rained continuosly and always in NEM..
It happens we are humans and we are quite senti about the rain and having two consecutive failures feeds the emotion more…
The fact is NEM is highly unpredicatable and the numbers are highly erratic..always a chance …Theory of probability will be really helpful will be really useful in understanding its behaviour..
i fear the debate will continue till we receive the first drop from the up coming system
Till last drop from the system!
may be till this year n.e.m concludes
I fear it will end up with lots of people quitting…because now people have started accusing others of being wrong..this can’t end well. .
well said, i request to all bloggers especially experts, let a debate be just a debate, and don’t take any thing in to your mind / heart
every experts have their own way of predicting, and it may vary according to individual. but this gives us various probability about analysing the weather.
We need a good depression forming near jaffna latitude and moves north west cover central, northern & southern parts of AP to get good rains. looks like possible. a system at 10 North & 84 east would be very ideal to cover most coastal parts of tamil nadu. this system may not bring all that rains to extreme southern tamil nadu.
ss
System showing good convergence and excellent divergence.But too close to the Southern tip of Srilanka to develop and Strengthen.So we need to wait and see how and where it emerges after Land interaction.
The NE bands are powerful and have been battering Eastern srilanka.Batti and Pasikuda towns have been recording 100mm+
just sent you an email. can you reply by sms ?
Widespread rains in SL. Maximum Rainfall of 88.0mm in Passikuda ending 8.30 am on 25.11.2014
where it emerges after Land interaction – is what we have to watch out for
Who prepares the quiz? Not the experts.?
Srilankan Met warns of high speed winds “The possibility for increasing of wind speed (upto 70 Km/hr) at times over the country and over the sea areas around the island is high”
ITS MY PREDICTION
Please avoid caps.
Leading newsper says..’taking stock for the season’.. surveyors r measuring the depth of Cooum river for free waterflow during monsoon season.. I wonder which monsoon season…
its wrong info by hindu. We did the survey. Its not for depth. Hindu standard has reached rock bottom.
Oh.. that is bad…
Phil Hughes injury! HOLY SHIT! The video clearly shows he wasn’t hit on his head, but on his heart! And collapsed immediately.
I think you mean Chest?
heart side chest
ashwinD12 .
for example.
everyone is posting SOI index for the day.
enso index for that week.
iod index for that week.
mjo is the same like that, so no worries, once people starts learning they would be sure that MJO is not the only phenomenon which brings precipitation, it is also the other factors which has to support.
i tell you one thing, during SWM if MJO enters Phase 1 itself then it triggers SWM winds over Arabian sea, once it enters Phase 2, then precipitation will increase, but during NEM it is totally different since the wind direction changes to NE. The wind comes from south china sea, hence there should be a trigger in Phase 4 or Phase 5 to get us the convection activity, hence the current MJO will start moving from Phase 3 to Phase 4, that movement itself will get us precipitation, also SOI will be near to -5 will be an added advantage for us.
@parthasri – please note that I am not “accusing” you. I am just asking what the limits are of a responsible post. To me if you can link a parameter such as MJO to precipitation on the ground it is responsible enough plus giving a confidence level that would be appreciated. As we are dealing with numerical methods please go through this link first – http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forecast_skill