For the first time since NEM in on Oct 17th, NEM has turned into deficit over Chennai. Looks like the deficit will increase further before any chance of it coming down.
For the first time since NEM in on Oct 17th, NEM has turned into deficit over Chennai. Looks like the deficit will increase further before any chance of it coming down.
KeaWeather Archives 
Pleasant climate
The rains will begin in chennai from Monday or Tuesday and increase into heavy intensity from wed or Thursday in chennai!
how do you say that
From my experience in 2011 same like that happened in 2011 low formed and heavy rain started in chennai from 24th! Nov
going date wise…or a low on srilanka coast?
Date wise low likely to form in GOM! imd chennai also agrees that rains will increase in chennai from coming Monday or Tuesday!
yeah but magicseaweed expects this low to be quite low in latitude thats what worries me
Don’t worry everything will be fine at that time always when low comes to GOM chennai gets pounded like anything!
Nice and chilly climte ib virdhunagar. And look like lots of ts poping up near chennai
engapa radar is very clear….
Nice and chilly climte ib virdhunagar. And look like lots of ts poping up near chennai
Heavy lashing in sattur
Super rains fantastic
Enjoy send some rains for us!
hi paul,
where from…sattur enga irukku
He is in Thoothukodi
looks like we may get some showers next week…Be positive guys
Not some showers heavy rains possible in chennai in coming week courtesy imd chennai
More humid and clouds in east …less of early morning Mist..
signs of monsoon revival?
Yes!
Ameen which class are you studying?
7th std
Now drinking hot coffee in my terrace…
Good Morning – Light drizzle at Ullagaram
Hi sir
This is a sign of monsoon revival!
clear blue skies here, no trace of any rain whatsoever!
After looking at the radar 1 hr back I thought of posting drizzling in some parts of Chennai but not posted becoz I am not sure whether its fake or real..:) ..good signs
will it increase towards 0 or atleast -5
think when the monsoon started we had SOI of -8..pls correct me if i am wrong..this dipped to less than -10 guess…now it is again back to nearing -8
Intermittent heavy spell lashed overnight…now light rain..
Good morning all, good title to thread today, absolutely right, hopes receding by the day for chennai. Each day now dawns with blue skies.
Good morning all, the topic only gets more and more depressing
Heavy drizzles here
GFS parallel – monster system developing in central BOB
Will that help in bringing rains for us?
Definitely.
Enjoyed few minutes of drizzling at marina
It’s bright and sunny in periyapalayam. Last night was warm compared to previous days and there was not much mist in the morning either
3 circulations in this monster trough – 1 NE of Maldives which could pound S TN
Another one SE of Sri Lanka which is a minor one and could trigger some isolated thunderstorms in N, C TN.
One SW of Aceh
WHICH ONE WILL BE GO AS LOW PRESSURE?
Susa will chennai get rains from this SE circulation? Imd chennai tells rains will begin in chennai from Monday or Tuesday and increase the intensity from wed in chennai!!
Susa see the squally line which passed chennai few days ago
Again, a humid night with mini hovering around 25deg, I feel chances are bright for a convection; more over yesterday there were millions of flys around (‘eesal’ in tamil) this is indicative of rainy days. I may sound unscientific. Let us see.
yeah true…lot of eesals suddenly came in to my house…i did not see this insect before this season
Heavy rain reported at Nagai
Nice
Rain stopped now
Today, Had few drops of Drizzles in the early morning
Trough Chart
may be tough chart for chennai
another low is forming near andaman?
More evidence to suggest warming is impacting the jet stream leading to extreme winters in US… http://s25.postimg.org/edethag1b/Earth_jet_stream_full_jpg_w_1484.jpg
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/11/20/theres-growing-evidence-that-global-warming-is-driving-crazy-winters/
looks like sine wave.!!
A car dealership, completely buried in snow at Buffalo Snow.
That’s the power of the lake effect snow!
7 ft of snow in 36 hours!!
Looks like it’s a lot more humid today compared to yesterday..
Signs of monsoon revival…
Upper Tropospheric Ridge centered around the Philippines and the associated Ridge axis is still seen running approximately around 13 – 14 deg N latitude ……
Latest GFS takes he bulk precipitation region down south of Comorin ….
Sri Lanka is expected to get maximum from this Low ……
Southern most districts of Kerala and TN have a chance of rain ….
How abt NTN?
Till the latest available run hrs. of forecast not much ,,,,,We ll see what is in for N.TN in the rest …
In 5 min. we ll be able to get a more clearer pic.
This is the actual image ….
Into 117 hrs of forecast N.TN is not blessed for any rains till then …Low gets well marked
GTS rains will bless only on 28th. See the next few hours. NTN will be blessed.
Oh. No.. This is unfair!.
Hey wait ………..,,,full run is on the way and N.TN seems to have a share from this ….
Wait Wait. Let him post further hours
Sir IMD chennai is telling that rains will begin in chennai from Monday or Tuesday and increase the intensity from wed?
how, any data
My dad spoke to imd chennai
is ur dad in the blog? Why not you bring & introduce him KEA blog?
Historic Rains lash South Tamil Nadu, ending 8.30 am on 21.11.2014
====================================
The trough of low at mean sea level over equatorial Indian Ocean and adjoining central parts of south Bay of Bengal has become less marked. However, a cyclonic circulation extending upto 0.9 km a.s.l. lies over southwest Bay of Bengal off Sri Lanka coast. Nambiyar in Tirunelveli is seeing floods after 22 years. Pechiparai Dam is just 1 feet away from overflowing.
in mm (Min 30 mm)
Tiruchendur – 191
Satankulam – 188
Kayalpattinam – 175
Nanguneri – 165
Radhapuram – 139
Lower Papansam Dam – 136
Papanasam Dam – 132
Kulasekarapattinam – 127
Kottaram – 120
Manamelkudi – 114
Alangulam – 113
Kannimar – 97
Moolakaraipatti – 96
Ambasamudram – 93
Thiruvattur – 93
Koliporvilai – 93
Cheranmahadevi – 92
Tuticorin – 89
Adyamadai – 89
Mullankivillai – 89
Thovala – 89
Poigai – 85
Aralvoimmozhi – 85
Mambazhathuraiyaru – 83
Manur – 83
Thoothukudi Port – 80
Nagercoil – 79
Anaikadangu – 78
Servalar – 76
Kanyakumari – 76
Manimutharu – 76
Upper Kodayar – 75
Srivaikuntam – 74
Thuckalay – 72
Colachel – 71
Palayamkottai – 70
Thalainayaru – 70
Bhoothapandy – 68
Karuthancode – 68
Neyoor – 68
Suralode – 65
Tirunelveli – 65
Eraniel – 63
Mylaudy – 63
Kannangudi – 63
Kuzhithurai – 60
Puthen Dam – 59
Perunchani – 58
Ramnad Nicra – 50
Mudukulatur – 50
Thiruparappu – 47
Chittar I – 46
Tondi – 45
Thiruthuraipoondi – 44
Chittar II – 42
Ottapadiram – 42
Vedaranyam – 40
Ayikudi – 40
Kadambur – 39
Tiruvadanai – 39
Devakottai – 38
R.S.mangalam – 38
Kalugumalai – 38
Lower Kodayar – 36
Thenkasi – 35
Kamudhi – 34
Pechiparai – 34
Ramanathapuram – 34
Tiruppullani – 34
Kovilpatti – 33
Maniyachi – 32
Paramakudi – 31
Vaippar – 30
Keelaarasadi – 30
For past data
Kea Converse – http://forum.keaweather.org/viewforum.php?f=12
TWM – https://www.facebook.com/tamilnaduweatherman
Vagaries Rainman – http://tamilnaduweatherman.blogspot.in/p/tamil-nadu-daily-rainfall-report.html
Amazing rains …!!!
Seems the next low that is making way would give no break in rains ……
GTS dams are already full. Tirunelveli, Thoothukudi, Kanyakumari dont need more rains.
Let us see ,,How December systems make their way , if they too don’t gain latitude and altitude , really pathetic situation for S.TN ….
Good to hear. I am happy for them..
NTN will also get heavy rains!!! 🙂
its shows rain upto kalpakkam sketch
Is it due to pull effect or new low?
Hey it is a Low getting formed within the Trough near GOM ….
Then chennai will be pounded when ever low forms in GOM
But it might not be an actual low taking shape , could be some temporary dominant vortex in that area of the trough …
So long stay cannot be guaranteed
even many forecast models predicted rain only for a day..in chennai on 28th.
Come we all will pray for LPA to form in GOM and stay for 4 days!
Hi
That Low near GOM , for a short while seems to be momentary one …going along with the actual low ….
Rains set to hug along the coast of TN for a while ..
According to latest GFS rains may continue till the 1st or 2nd of December for N.TN
Hyperactive gts..
lol….
Sir forecast eh vidunga.. it wud turn in favour for us soon.. when u r going to start the post mortem analysis of previous systems?
LOL
Which previous system , I guess it was Nilofar ….R u referring to it ???
2014 cyclones
We can do a post mortem report for our own “Ashobaa” after it hits us in Dec ….
Enna ma adhu Nadakkuma ???
Wish this would come true ….
Good to see You around in this time
Today is Saturday.. So GTS will be active in the morning
So Sunday you take a leave from the blog?
Not Exactly, depends on my work
But now a days you are doing this frequently, he he
Hi
GTS why are you seeing CFS, see the GFS extended run. It is itself showing the CFS system.
gud morning…
one washed away in thamiraparani. here all washing away their sweating
And washing clothes too
Hehehe
A comparison like this is quite unfair …
rain started in karikal tarangabadi surrounding
karaikal will be getting heavy rain..red spot over there..
nagapattinam district ,cuddalore district get moderate rainfall
@ gts
Any reason for Pacific basin to be inactive for almost on a 3rd week now?
Actually I haven’t looked at it …
But I heard it form Sel, that it could be due to warmer anomalies in the eastern pacific….
In that case the energy would not be accumulating in the western Pacific …as no stronger subsidence is taking place over the eastern pacific ..
Energy is spread over the Pacific, rather than accumulating in western Pacific …
I feel this may be one of the reasons , but I haven’t looked into parameters like instability in the atmosphere, which is also one essential component required for some activity ….
So sst may be a reason too
Yes , more role could be because of SST anomaly …
Right
Nem is going lull in chennai 😦
last year it was completely upside down. western pacific was very warm during oct,nov,dec. conditions wer looked like lanina. tat led to historic monsters like haiyan
Sel, any more details on how that “La Nina like” conditions emerged at around that time ??
entire year followed neutral state but lanina like conditions evolved during boreal fall wen eastern pacific failed to maintain the sst..so tis drived the trade winds twrds w.pacific n strengthened it.. and tis collectively led to accumulate the energy in w.pacific .. last year v got most of the pulses from w.pacific.
Yes ..badly ….
Even though bay is silent, we get pulses from pacific, its like kaanji pona nadhi, andha vathada kadalai paathu aarudal adaiyum, aana atha kadale vaathi pona? Similar situation is between bay and Pacific
@Jeet…when i was in trichendur i prayed to lord muruga that we should cross 120 cms this season…but seems he is doing it only in his area. tirunelveli,trichendur,tuticorin..keeping my fingers crossed…
Fine, you go now and pray in vadapalni temple, so he will give to us
jeetu , i imagined the above conversation in goundermani style…rofl
He he
Dark Clouds Possible drizzles in Chennai 🙂
Was drizzling here for the past 5 mins….
Rains near Cuddalore Chidambaram.
chennai and other adjoining districts would be under wet spell within a day or two. probably next week we will have plenty of useful heavy rains. Moon is entering favourable position from tonight for another 21 days. 23rd November 2014 – 16th December 2014 considered to be heavy rainfall season for whole of north tamil nadu.
ss
Wowooii good news!
Some improvement in weather today and some dense cumulus around after system over lakshadweep started to weaken.
Today morning at marina
dark clouds at kk nagar..y?
As per my thinking conditions are becoming favorable for revival of NEM over chennai and adjoining areas of NTN coasts!
hmm..no school?
Yes holiday for me!
oh..kk
I AM WATCHING LAST THREE TO FOUR DAYS..DARK CLOUDS PASSING.THEN WHY NO RAIN?
mild drizzels in adyar , half haour before..stopped now..
pondi to krkl should be getting rains soon..as per radar
so frm dec 8 to 20th will be the best bet for Chennai and surroundings. can Expect 200mm+…??
may be 500 mm can possible if system approach our coast
In December kalpakkam to nellore sketch has high percentage of cyclone chances are higher because we had more dry days as of now we are in treat in December second week
Good point
Let wait for another two week we have good chances of rain, all are disappoint last three yrs of not good rains for Chennai but it will huge it will get flooding rains waiting for Chennai in December
Lets enjoy other places like south coastal tamilnadu, central tamilnadu and deltas region enjoy the rains they need badly ,don’t lose hope guys lets think positive i am also negative comments most times but we all post positive comments all the dreams come true very quick.
Chennai people are more greedy, they had great rains just 5 days back and they are expecting rains everyday and also wanted cyclones 🙂
There are many ppl who will be active only if it rains in native district..
if greedy why PJ is collecting rainfall data all over and not only for Chennai..Many here were happy abt rains in delta districts,ramanathapuram,thirunelveli district..
Nov is wettest month in Chennai and people are expecting the same to happen…
Yeah absolutely right
I appreciate the efforts of great bloggers here, am always for rains but not cyclones, may be over enthusiastic.
Wo-wooii Wo-wooii wow-wooii!
What is this
Happiness! My parrot Pappu kokoyu will tell this when he is happy!
Pah
Hehe
Hi!
Are you day dreaming?! 😛
payyan cycle ootaran
Nanguneri 11 ramnad 9 papanasam radhapuram satankulam 7each tiruchendur 5cm tvli tuty rMD dist rocking 🙂
is tis today’s share?
S till 8:30am
i saw someone reporting 19cm for tcn? was tat yesterday?
Yes sir thiruchedur till yesterday morning 8 30am 19cm!
Hey some one explain me what is super cellular thunderstorm why it is not occurring in chennai?
latest satellite picture gives lot of positive signals, as we could see dense cloud mass over south east bay of bengal. needs to be tracked. we will have rains from tomorrow.
ss
yes
It depends on direction it will move.. All prediction & as of now are westward movement below 10N lat so far..
why its not move above 12 N What is the reason
HPA..Also ITCZ is not climbing up this year and it went down in Nov itself. Let our experts to explain is there any chance of ITCZ climbing up in near future
sir, its quite normal for the itcz line to fall in tat latitude during tis part of the season . anyway it is expected move bit north as per recent jma forecast
hpa could be the reason .. abnormal dip in str is one of the characterstics of elnino
Hope this comes true.
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=cmc&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=84&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=
v can expect like tis..convection along the itcz is intensifying as days getting progressed. it will be great if a system forms in s.east bay from the present vortex..
Kindly can u tell me if at all a system forms what will be it’d direction on moving
predominantly west… if it is strong, it wud b w-nw
K. Thank u nw movement will only favor us ?
bcos earth rotates e to w
mjo in phase 2.5 results in SC/SE BOB system but why models expecting Arabian sea system.
it is not a necessary condition.. v had cyclogenesis in bay and arb sea irrespective of the mjo phases.. it just boost the conditions for cyclogenesis when it passes. always the favourable conditions matters
but generally mjo in phase 2.5-3 favours BOB cyclogenesis whereas 1-2 favours Arabian sea.
yeah..tats the general saying but it is not mandatory in all cases.if v go with the past history, mjo 3 n 4 is the ideal condition for bay but at the same time all the conditions has to be inline.
Yes but models showing vortex near SE arabian sea developing into a system instead of SC BOB vortex.
seems only outerband,that too, it,s just inching towards s Chennai..
mjo wave in full force http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/indian/winds/wm5vorZ.GIF
I am seeing some cloud activity here. It is due to MJO wave?. So There is a change in str movement ?. Will it adopt its own style to reach NW direction instead of current condition?
mjo convection vary from normal convection,..it has some typical features ,and now it is constrained to itcz area of convection but overall it increases the probablity of cyclogenesis
Chennai will be flooded if this comes true.
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=cmc&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=96&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=
can we trust this CMC
No. Its better to stick with GFS and ECMWF.
Heavy rain lashes southern dists; water level rises in dams
m.timesofindia.com/city/madurai/Heavy-rain-lashes-southern-dists-water-level-rises-in-dams/articleshow/45236056.cms
is any low forming near andaman
It’s gonna be a wet weekend for chennai,,, at least 30cms expected..,,,
form when a wet weekend and how
From sat pic… It shows a ideal formation of low pressure brewing in bay that may effect north tn
good joke
Today’s circulation is little bit towards north than expected.
Trichy epdi iruku pa
where is the circulation. only thick cloud mass over south east bay. however easterlies are strong now.
ss
is that circulation moves north and gather strength. often we see some, but most of those not moving north.
ss
OMG! Foreca has removed the rain forecast for next week :O
Its all in the Game
Foreca varum aana varathu prediction
Mr. selvan.
do you mean to say chennai would get benefit in terms of rain in few days?
SS
v hav chance if any of the two circulation develops n lp trough out the circulation extends till n.tn ..
CMC – the best rain forecasting model..used for day dreaming 😀
For the past few days, people on streets talking about heavy rains in South TN…
Just now heard one lady saying to somebody..”Hey..theriyumaa..Thanjavur’la nalla mazhayam…”
:O: :roll_eyes: :O:
Ada ponga pa..no work in blog this weekend..so ellaarum poi “Appuchi’s Village” and “Beware of Dogs” Tamil movies paarunga 😀
BREAKING NEWS
If depression hit central tamilnadu how many cms rain for Chennai
Anywhere between 0 and 500 mm
lol
i think smileys are not allowed in this blog
Good rains possible for N TN from November 28th-November 30th.Current system building in SE BOB will be the cause
28th? I thought IMD said from monday onwards.
Heavier chances from 27-28, but IMD forecast heavy rains for N TN 2 days back too.
Yes heavy rains for chennai on Thursday and friday last week
expect clear weather
y?
Models dont give much chance and satellite picture clear.
Gtaman has predicted 30 cm for this
weekend!
kea can’t believe you are saying this
KEA knows the picture clearly, dont expect much.
of course not easy to predict weather long term, but do you feel chennai has any more heavy spells left this NEM?
I think more than 4 shot of heavy rains is left
when?
The whole dec is there as per susa we will get 3rd spell of NEM from 28th November then more 4 spells are left!
ok, lets wait, but November is the prime month for NEM, too many dry days this year.
when will the rain start at Chennai?
We are still having heavy rains in the south. Looks like it will continue like this for a couple of days at least.
Will chennai get rains is the big question mark.
if this happens we will get heavy rains in chennai http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!144!Asia!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2014112200!!/
already gtaman made an amusing comment about 30 cm rain for this weekend.
@arun0521,
I didn’t say anything about rains. That was IMD prediction of Wednesday that it will rain heavily on Thu and friday. As you can see they have been way off target as far as chennai is concerned
Kea..watched Interstellar with your Son??? 😀
Hi
What is that?
oh okay kea.
SOI value has been reduced to -7.96
https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/
SOI started to increase at a good rate!
-7.96 now 😀
NASA image showing ITCZ with active convection associated with circulation west southwest of srilanka
Gone dark and raining for past 20 mins.
its good to hear….
Towers back from 28/29th
yes – Annanagar tower has given permission to people to go top on 28/29th
hehe
Happy
30cm expected
Cola predicting around 30 mm now.
Tomorrow it will become 20
On monday it will reduce to 10
By Tuesday it will dissapear
Oh spell error 30mm oly expected
BBC forecast shows heavy rain for chennai on wednesday
Bbc along with gfs is the most dissapointing model this nem
Yes
ecmwf is expecting a system in s.bay near eastern lanka on 26th n 27th… still it is not clear in intensity but tis disturbance is a sure shot.. possibly moving twrds tn . v hav to wait and watch for further updates on tis
Click to access get_legacy_plot-web248-20141122085545-26739-1284.pdf
Click to access get_legacy_plot-web248-20141122085904-26729-1230.pdf
but rest of the models( GFS, Parallel GFS, NAVGEM, CMC) ruling out this disturbance instead they’re expecting arabian sea system to become a severe cyclone.
considering the presence of mjo, tis has pretty decent chance
I think ECMWF will get this right this time because it was forecasting hpa to develop in Arabian sea in coming days. We can clearly see from the navy nrl image dry air entering north arabian sea which will lead to strong hpa.
more over the hpa wich was extending from east northeast has reduced ..so the str would move north,paving way for the trough to expand north..tis will do good for north tn in terms of rain
severe cyclone?
earlier updates were showing severe cyclone but now they’ve changed it to cyclonic storm.
really hope it happens..
Chennai in search of rains.
Very heavy rain for south coastal tamilnadu central tamilnadu delta region light to moderate rain for marakkaom to sriharikota sketch for coming days
They receiving past one week
i know i am forecast next week from coming Monday onward
After November 3rd week, you only get ‘Hazy’ light grey clouds ,as it is happening now. Only light rains are a possibility from now onwards. ‘ADAI mazhai’ will not happen.
Can we give Advt in OLX or Quickr
Looking for NEM, expecting around 300mm to 500mm rain on or before 30th Nov, contact: KEA Captain or KEA Bloggers (http://blog.keaweather.org)
Rainfall decreases and increase from 26th over South coastal Tamil Nadu and No significant change for rest Tamil Nadu.
Appo idha nee sollirkave vandam partner lol 😀
Imd lol
OMG! Kea..U donno Interstellar? very bad..very bad..ask ur son 😀
Enna dasman romba naala aala kaanum
loyola school pet teachera iruparo
@guest11k:disqus , CMC is picking bay system http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/cmc/fcst/archive/14112200/68.track.current.png
that’s a good news.
even navgem is expecting but it is dragging the sytsem below lanka http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/navgem/fcst/archive/14112200/66.track.png
Tropical tidbits down seems under attack tryin to contact Levi Cowan for a clearer view of ecm
Why tropicaltidbits site was not opening??
S its under DDos attack
Ehsan will it rain or not this month end…..Take one stand….! We are saying it will. But your header says, the deficit will increase.
No no let it be, the more he says more rains guaranteed !!!!!!!!
Sat image update- asia sector
if the current circulation south of cape comorin doesnt develop ,bay system may take the lead
Which one ll give heavy rains?
the current circulation or the other one?
You mean it will no develope??
Seems current n bay systems gonna merge n become a well defined one south of Lanka as pwr meteoeartj
i saw something like tat in imd gfs too..
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/nwp/48hgfs_850wind.htm
S this is exactly wat it says