715 thoughts on “NEM rains turn into deficit with the ongoing long dry spell

  1. The rains will begin in chennai from Monday or Tuesday and increase into heavy intensity from wed or Thursday in chennai!

  2. think when the monsoon started we had SOI of -8..pls correct me if i am wrong..this dipped to less than -10 guess…now it is again back to nearing -8

  3. Good morning all, good title to thread today, absolutely right, hopes receding by the day for chennai. Each day now dawns with blue skies.

  4. It’s bright and sunny in periyapalayam. Last night was warm compared to previous days and there was not much mist in the morning either

  5. 3 circulations in this monster trough – 1 NE of Maldives which could pound S TN
    Another one SE of Sri Lanka which is a minor one and could trigger some isolated thunderstorms in N, C TN.
    One SW of Aceh

  6. Again, a humid night with mini hovering around 25deg, I feel chances are bright for a convection; more over yesterday there were millions of flys around (‘eesal’ in tamil) this is indicative of rainy days. I may sound unscientific. Let us see.

  7. Upper Tropospheric Ridge centered around the Philippines and the associated Ridge axis is still seen running approximately around 13 – 14 deg N latitude ……

  8. Latest GFS takes he bulk precipitation region down south of Comorin ….

    Sri Lanka is expected to get maximum from this Low ……

    Southern most districts of Kerala and TN have a chance of rain ….

  9. Historic Rains lash South Tamil Nadu, ending 8.30 am on 21.11.2014
    The trough of low at mean sea level over equatorial Indian Ocean and adjoining central parts of south Bay of Bengal has become less marked. However, a cyclonic circulation extending upto 0.9 km a.s.l. lies over southwest Bay of Bengal off Sri Lanka coast. Nambiyar in Tirunelveli is seeing floods after 22 years. Pechiparai Dam is just 1 feet away from overflowing.

    in mm (Min 30 mm)

    Tiruchendur – 191
    Satankulam – 188
    Kayalpattinam – 175
    Nanguneri – 165
    Radhapuram – 139
    Lower Papansam Dam – 136
    Papanasam Dam – 132
    Kulasekarapattinam – 127
    Kottaram – 120
    Manamelkudi – 114
    Alangulam – 113
    Kannimar – 97
    Moolakaraipatti – 96
    Ambasamudram – 93
    Thiruvattur – 93
    Koliporvilai – 93
    Cheranmahadevi – 92
    Tuticorin – 89
    Adyamadai – 89
    Mullankivillai – 89
    Thovala – 89
    Poigai – 85
    Aralvoimmozhi – 85
    Mambazhathuraiyaru – 83
    Manur – 83
    Thoothukudi Port – 80
    Nagercoil – 79
    Anaikadangu – 78
    Servalar – 76
    Kanyakumari – 76
    Manimutharu – 76
    Upper Kodayar – 75
    Srivaikuntam – 74
    Thuckalay – 72
    Colachel – 71
    Palayamkottai – 70
    Thalainayaru – 70
    Bhoothapandy – 68
    Karuthancode – 68
    Neyoor – 68
    Suralode – 65
    Tirunelveli – 65
    Eraniel – 63
    Mylaudy – 63
    Kannangudi – 63
    Kuzhithurai – 60
    Puthen Dam – 59
    Perunchani – 58
    Ramnad Nicra – 50
    Mudukulatur – 50
    Thiruparappu – 47
    Chittar I – 46
    Tondi – 45
    Thiruthuraipoondi – 44
    Chittar II – 42
    Ottapadiram – 42
    Vedaranyam – 40
    Ayikudi – 40
    Kadambur – 39
    Tiruvadanai – 39
    Devakottai – 38
    R.S.mangalam – 38
    Kalugumalai – 38
    Lower Kodayar – 36
    Thenkasi – 35
    Kamudhi – 34
    Pechiparai – 34
    Ramanathapuram – 34
    Tiruppullani – 34
    Kovilpatti – 33
    Maniyachi – 32
    Paramakudi – 31
    Vaippar – 30
    Keelaarasadi – 30

    For past data

    Kea Converse – http://forum.keaweather.org/viewforum.php?f=12
    TWM – https://www.facebook.com/tamilnaduweatherman
    Vagaries Rainman – http://tamilnaduweatherman.blogspot.in/p/tamil-nadu-daily-rainfall-report.html

  10. That Low near GOM , for a short while seems to be momentary one …going along with the actual low ….

    Rains set to hug along the coast of TN for a while ..

    • Actually I haven’t looked at it …
      But I heard it form Sel, that it could be due to warmer anomalies in the eastern pacific….
      In that case the energy would not be accumulating in the western Pacific …as no stronger subsidence is taking place over the eastern pacific ..
      Energy is spread over the Pacific, rather than accumulating in western Pacific …
      I feel this may be one of the reasons , but I haven’t looked into parameters like instability in the atmosphere, which is also one essential component required for some activity ….

      • last year it was completely upside down. western pacific was very warm during oct,nov,dec. conditions wer looked like lanina. tat led to historic monsters like haiyan

      • entire year followed neutral state but lanina like conditions evolved during boreal fall wen eastern pacific failed to maintain the sst..so tis drived the trade winds twrds w.pacific n strengthened it.. and tis collectively led to accumulate the energy in w.pacific .. last year v got most of the pulses from w.pacific.

      • Even though bay is silent, we get pulses from pacific, its like kaanji pona nadhi, andha vathada kadalai paathu aarudal adaiyum, aana atha kadale vaathi pona? Similar situation is between bay and Pacific

  11. @Jeet…when i was in trichendur i prayed to lord muruga that we should cross 120 cms this season…but seems he is doing it only in his area. tirunelveli,trichendur,tuticorin..keeping my fingers crossed…

  12. chennai and other adjoining districts would be under wet spell within a day or two. probably next week we will have plenty of useful heavy rains. Moon is entering favourable position from tonight for another 21 days. 23rd November 2014 – 16th December 2014 considered to be heavy rainfall season for whole of north tamil nadu.

  13. Some improvement in weather today and some dense cumulus around after system over lakshadweep started to weaken.

  14. In December kalpakkam to nellore sketch has high percentage of cyclone chances are higher because we had more dry days as of now we are in treat in December second week

  15. Let wait for another two week we have good chances of rain, all are disappoint last three yrs of not good rains for Chennai but it will huge it will get flooding rains waiting for Chennai in December

  16. Lets enjoy other places like south coastal tamilnadu, central tamilnadu and deltas region enjoy the rains they need badly ,don’t lose hope guys lets think positive i am also negative comments most times but we all post positive comments all the dreams come true very quick.

    • Chennai people are more greedy, they had great rains just 5 days back and they are expecting rains everyday and also wanted cyclones 🙂

      • There are many ppl who will be active only if it rains in native district..
        if greedy why PJ is collecting rainfall data all over and not only for Chennai..Many here were happy abt rains in delta districts,ramanathapuram,thirunelveli district..
        Nov is wettest month in Chennai and people are expecting the same to happen…

      • I appreciate the efforts of great bloggers here, am always for rains but not cyclones, may be over enthusiastic.

  17. latest satellite picture gives lot of positive signals, as we could see dense cloud mass over south east bay of bengal. needs to be tracked. we will have rains from tomorrow.

    • I am seeing some cloud activity here. It is due to MJO wave?. So There is a change in str movement ?. Will it adopt its own style to reach NW direction instead of current condition?

      • mjo convection vary from normal convection,..it has some typical features ,and now it is constrained to itcz area of convection but overall it increases the probablity of cyclogenesis

  18. Heavy rain lashes southern dists; water level rises in dams

  19. For the past few days, people on streets talking about heavy rains in South TN…
    Just now heard one lady saying to somebody..”Hey..theriyumaa..Thanjavur’la nalla mazhayam…”
    :O: :roll_eyes: :O:

  20. Ada ponga pa..no work in blog this weekend..so ellaarum poi “Appuchi’s Village” and “Beware of Dogs” Tamil movies paarunga 😀

  21. @arun0521,

    I didn’t say anything about rains. That was IMD prediction of Wednesday that it will rain heavily on Thu and friday. As you can see they have been way off target as far as chennai is concerned

    • but rest of the models( GFS, Parallel GFS, NAVGEM, CMC) ruling out this disturbance instead they’re expecting arabian sea system to become a severe cyclone.

      • I think ECMWF will get this right this time because it was forecasting hpa to develop in Arabian sea in coming days. We can clearly see from the navy nrl image dry air entering north arabian sea which will lead to strong hpa.

      • more over the hpa wich was extending from east northeast has reduced ..so the str would move north,paving way for the trough to expand north..tis will do good for north tn in terms of rain

  22. Very heavy rain for south coastal tamilnadu central tamilnadu delta region light to moderate rain for marakkaom to sriharikota sketch for coming days

  23. After November 3rd week, you only get ‘Hazy’ light grey clouds ,as it is happening now. Only light rains are a possibility from now onwards. ‘ADAI mazhai’ will not happen.

  24. Ehsan will it rain or not this month end…..Take one stand….! We are saying it will. But your header says, the deficit will increase.

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