It looks most likely that Chennai’s dry spell now into its 5th day will continue for a few more days now. Next possible chance of rainfall is Monday/Tuesday. We need to monitor that closely.
Gud mng all, the dry spell continues as the thread topic says, but hope for rains in the next 2-3 days. Iam optimistic as ever but scenario currently not for any sudden turnaround.
ECMWF expects system to take NW turn after going south of SL into GOM. If this happens and it goes into S TN coast, there are good chances of extremely widespread heavy rain over TN and bands might reach even till S AP
lesser area and small number of lakes and ponds.?? so many dams are there. No. , those places are very vast.
If the dams are full, then there will be damage to crops due to lesser number of lakes there. I am also basically from that places.
Flooding is rare phenemon in nellai city as soil Is a mix of red and alluvial since nellai gets very neligible rain in swm so soil is bereft of moisture so every water goes into soil
Yes partly True, for these rains, some people waited for nearly 15 years or more..esp in Tuti district. Let it flood.
That true tuty and nellainellai dist had cyclone in late 90s lead to flooding that is very rare
Massive rain moderately heavy at ttimes continuing along the coast from midnight..
While rains are possible by 26th/27th Nov,I personally am bullish on system driven rains by 1st week Dec spanning 2 weeks.
Pointers are good — MJO coming into Phase 3 with heightened activity,IOD moving away from its positive values to Zero.
3.MJO- Phase 2 and Phase 3 are good for us.If the values are plotted outside the inner circle,its an indication of higher amplitude.For example you can see that from 26th Nov,its entering Phase 2 with a higher amplitude http://www.kylemacritchie.com/real-time-maps/realtime-mjo/
It says Dopler Radar Animation in the title of that page? So its not radar?
Good morning,
This NEM 2014 reminds me of 2010.
In November 2010, i have been to Kumbakonam by train.
When i started from Egmore, it was dry already for 10 days.
I was travelling quietly, when we crossed Villupuram and reached Panruti,
entire climate changed, it was raining heavily from that place, we were
crossing the river Pennar, it was full of water and almost flash floods gushing
through the river bed. Since then whichever river we cross we could see full of
floods.
Arrived in Kumbakonam in the afternoon and went to temples,
rains all the way, water running through the roads, greenish everywhere. Stayed
there for 2 days and visited lots of temples in the rain. Whenever we start
from one temple, the rain stops, then when we arrive at another temple rain
starts.
Then on Sunday afternoon we have started through bus, it
started at 01.30PM. Rain Rain everywhere, again when we were crossing rivers we
saw the same floods, bus driver could not drive faster as the rains were very
heavy.
Finally we reached Panruti around 04.30PM, dark clouds were
passing by, once we started from that place and crossed Pennar, i could not
believe my eyes, the roads are completely dry. I was feeling that i am seeing
dry roads after 3 days. I could not digest, and thought how nature is partial
at that time and i was very angry after seeing those dry roads.
Finally reached Chennai around 09.00PM, got down in
Vadapalani and went to my T Nagar home.
Then in second half of November and December 2010 the deficit
over Chennai is recovered, heavy rains has taken the deficit to normal.
The same pattern going on now, hence i would say that things
will change in coming days.
Arabian sea system on 28th, moving in NNW direction initially.
Nowadays NEM also doing good for Kerala and Coastal KTK.
From 22nd to 25th we have good chance of rain.
ECMWF has very positive forecast for TN, Low in GOM on 26th and 27th.
We should get good rainfall over entire TN till 28th november.
By 29th November the Low moves to Arabian sea and moving along the west coast then another low coming in from SE bay on 30th.
cfs forecast is very interesting.. cfs forecast wich came out during first week of november has met the expectations nearly 85% ..they hinted two to three disturbances in arb sea. ..now their forecast showing a system in s.bay around novemebr 27th, affecting entire tn around 29th of november.. and another follow up system hitting s.ap round dec 5th ..and yet another system in the last week of december hitting n.tn -s.ap ..and the story goeson as monsoon extending into january and story finishing of with one very strong system in january first week
With rain, it will happen more than twice at least
for the first time i see captain in the past 4/ 5 days, saying some thing positive, without summarily rejecting, which gives some hope that we will have at least next week.
I didn’t say it will rain. 2000 comments depends on rain. If it rains we will cross. If it doesn’t rain we wont cross.
Its as simple as that
by seeing experts comments today, good rain may happen at least next week.
how about we having 260+ days raining… It will be other way round.. comments will flow when it is sunny..
even for dry days we cross 200 to 300 comments now a days. which affirms the positiveness with our bloggers
Good rainfall prospect from 22nd to 28th all over TN for sure.
As per the reliable ECMWF, we should get low and accompanied by strong easterlies from 23rd, we will get good rainfall.
That low in GOM will move towards Arabian Sea from 29th or 30th.
Rain filled remaining days of November is expected.
East to West shear zone formation is possible over 10N at 1.5KM above sea level, this is the first step before low formation in south bay.
Also SOI will increase from -9.5 to -5.0 in the coming days since the MSLP near Darwin is falling below average, since south indian ocean tropical storm “Adjali”. It is expected to slowly weaken in next 48 hours.
Another factior influenced me that NEM still on cards is the moisture.
We did had above normal minimum temp for the past 2 weeks even though it was dry, this will not happen during winter.
2012 was a real disaster and this November is certainly not by any means and mind you the month is far from over..Till date we have got about 50 % of November quota..
Last 3 years?? we had a super 2011..Got about 1600 mm annual rains for our region..N TN was enjoying all the rains since the start of NEM on Oct 17th..How can you forget all the rains we have had so far..Just because its not raining now in our region you have concluded it as a failure..Thus far except for North Arcot districts like Vellore, TV Malai, Virudhunagar and Trichy . all other regions are in excess..Pray and thank nature for the role its doing in the regions where its is raining and i am sure nature will reciprocate and bless our region also soon..
IN 2013 NOVEMEBR WE USED TO SEE VERY CLEAR SKY AND MAX TEMP IS 32 AND 33 WITH MIN WILL DROP BY 21 AND 22,
IN 2014 NOV- WE ARE SEEING CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR PAST THREE DAYS…WITH MAX NOT REACHING ABOVE 32 AND MININUM NOT GOING BELOW 25.
RESULT:
NEM GOING TO BE VIGOROUS IN TAMILNADU IN COMING DAYS
Partha: it is tough to predict now, lets wait for 7 more days atleast.
@disqus_t5BoD7uk8P:disqus what does that mean? 7 more days of dry weather and then we will know of rain chances?
I said cyclogenesis probability high from 04th December over SE bay.
then Vinoth Kanna asked a question like “Which is the landfall”?
I said for that we have to wait for 7 days.
It is not about rainfall projection, it was about LF of december first week system.
if cyclone forms in arabian sea means our dec 1 week system possibility will go down so therefore we dont want a cyclone in arabian sea during nxt week
who said that is nilam…..dont confuse nisha and nilam….
nisha gave widspread rain to 660 mm to orathanadu in just 24 hours
and 180 mm to chennai
srry yeah got confused with nilam 2012
nilam to gave wd rain but not for tn only for rayalaseema
yeah i know nilam gave good rains to south ap ,but only good winds here in chennai
not only winds
rain also there .. we got 82 mm in 24 hour 31 oct
8 cm yeah ,but you expect much more from a cyclone than mere 8 cms
chennai neigh districts like tiruvallur , vellore got more rains in nilam……if u see the oct 2012 rainfall mean it is excess….but nov and dec 2012 is a completely failure
it was very less rainfall more winds overall from nilam in N.TN and yes 2012 was NEM failure for us
hudhud also windt type cyclone ah?
bcoz vizag got only 146 mm on oct 11 and oct 12
a place in vizianagaram got 38cm in 24hrs
some other place also recorded 55 cms+ in just 24 hours.i donno the name.HUDHUD is a massive cyclone.NISHA cannot be compared to HUDHUD.HUDHUD rains may have exceeded even 70 CMS+ but correct rainfall was not measured at many places due to radar collapsing at many stations because of 200+KMPH speed.HUDHUD is a cyclone which has a very powerful eye
in the recent years.
Ellamanchili too
Just check records
i mistook nisha for nilam ,We dont want a system like nilam again
Fine,we will have at least ogni type if not nisha
hey jeet what is ogni?
when it came? what happen to tn?
It was a deep depression which formed on oct 2006 and gave good rains to coastal areas and later become a cyclone just before making it’s landfall.It was the smallest tropical cyclone on north indian ocean with winds only of 60kmph
wr it made lf
S.ap around nellore belt
NELLORE = NELL + ORE——–NELL IS TAMIL WORD ONLY LA…THEN HOW AP CAN KEEP TAMIL NAME
We just gifted them
LOL
before states divided according to the majority of language spoken in that particular region, andhra was also a part of erstwhile madras presidency, you can see lot of tamil stone inscriptions in thirumala temple also
You are right to some extent, but nothing beyond nellore
yes, other places came under hyd.nizam rule
Madras Presidency (also known as Madras Province and known officially as Presidency of Fort St. George), was a province of British India. At its greatest extent, Madras Presidency included much of southern India, including the present-day Indian State of Tamil Nadu, the Malabar region of North Kerala, Lakshadweep Islands, the Coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema regions of Andhra Pradesh, Brahmapur and Ganjam districts of Orissa and the Bellary, Dakshina Kannada, and Udupi districts of Karnataka. The presidency had its capital at Madras (now known as Chennai).
source : wikipedia
Super
tht’s why we can see lot of tamil words in telugu, odia, malayalam, kannada etc
Absolutely, only 100 to 150 kms around radius has similar things like tn
Just Google it, this small storm has very unique features
how much rainfall in chennai from ogni any guess
we got 50 cms of rain in 4 to 6 days
That should be great if a rain bearing system like ogni comes to us 😀
Forecast looks really positive for chennai on 28th! 🙂
Gfs meteogram and foreca predicting heavy showers..
still a long way to go.
Tamil Nadu gets rainfall after a break,ending 8.30 am on 19.11.2014
================================
The trough of low at mean sea level over south Andaman Sea and neighbourhood now lies over equatorial Indian Ocean and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal. Ramanathapuram, Pudukottai, Thanjavur and Tutucorin all got good widespread rains.
Arabians sea system expected in that region by 28th.
The low which is going to form in south bay will be in Gulf of Mannar from 24th to 27th, this low will move to arabian sea by 28th, this will intensify into a strong system.
as of now only a broad area of trough. ..compared to yday it moved south overall & same is confirmed by IMD to ay it now lies in Equatorial region.. we need to wait & see…
Will there any benefit to Chennai due to this
IMD Mid Day
♦ An upper air cyclonic circulation lies over southwest Bay of Bengal off
Sri Lanka coast and extends upto 0.9 km above mean sea level.
Heavy rainfall warning given for TN from tomorrow.
itcz line is expected to move bit north twrds 10 TO 11N and linger there for next 3 to 4 weeks… Tis is one promising sign for active monsoon in december
Tahiti MSLP set to increase in coming days as dry air occupying that region. This is wonderful opportunity for NEM to bounce back. If Tahiti increases, Darwin MSLP will decrease and bring in more precipitation.
Hence SOI set to increase, in the next 10 days, we can see SOI nearing -2.0.
yeah wats wrong in that?????? what are you trying to say?
first you have to explain about december rains, since you said to be practical, we all have said our opinion on december month rain.
November is the wettest month and when it fails to rain during the peak NEM month, do you think the probability of having rains in a month after the peak season is high or less?
check out my first comment of the day, you have the answer given already.
nem has its own passion.
He did not understand your “theory” and “practical” points
Light to moderate rain will start in north coastal TN and Pondy from tomorrow…
Lookslike rainman “naarathar” started to play his usual game/role, last time it was odm and now Mr partha, he he, I just said the fact, don’t mistake me rain/birdman and partha
South TN is having an amazing spell this NEM!! happy for them! As parthsri said Tuticoin has been rocking right from the NEM setting in on Oct 18th! What a turn around for a town which hardly had any rain or a long 4month period from June to Sept during the SWM season !! And we Chennaiites are feeling the pinch of loosing the glorious time of NEM – d last week of Oct because of Nilofer , hoping that much is in store for Nov. Now Nov is kinda only ok till now!! But stil its a decent monsoon for Chennai nd couple of good spells will turn the tables around for Chennai!! Fingers crossed big tym!!
Awesome news, ECMWF expects a huge trough in BOB by December first week with one circulation in SW BOB and another one at a higher latitude in Andaman Sea..
Guys whats happening to chennai. South TN is enjoying like anything whereas north TN which supports 75% of TN population is suffering with all the lakes in Chennai dry. Saw the news the current level of water is enough only for two more months.
the system over south indian ocean is the culprit, which did not allow the convection to form over north tn, it has also pulled in the ridge southwards to near north tn.
once that system weakens, everything will come back to normal.
SirYou mean the band near Andaman island will be the next chance for rain?
good morning, is bhavani sagar dam full? hope Erode’s drinking water lakes and ponds are full.
Gud mng all, the dry spell continues as the thread topic says, but hope for rains in the next 2-3 days. Iam optimistic as ever but scenario currently not for any sudden turnaround.
South Tamilnadu getting good moisture and TS and pounding rains going to happen next 24hrs in S.TN.
Schools and colleges declared holiday in thirunelveli and schools declared holiday in thothukudi
hi, that satellite image may increase chennai’s hopes of at least some showers?
Trough chart
Radhapuram 130 mm
ECMWF expects system to take NW turn after going south of SL into GOM. If this happens and it goes into S TN coast, there are good chances of extremely widespread heavy rain over TN and bands might reach even till S AP
Yes I think it should happen.
The center of the system is currently in E-Srilanka?
Maddy non-stop rains in Tirunelveli, Thoothukudi and Kanyakumari
STN will be the topper this NEM?
Radhapuram 141 mm. But i am expecting more in some places.
A forgettable week will be over in two days and new hopeful week is ahead for us. : ) Good Morning.
Yes. many are saying NEM is over for Chennai. Last week will give good rains to Chennai. Only Rains can put
an end to their words. Especially our captain Ehsan.
Extremely heavy rains as per nellai standards 80 mm as of today 7.30 am
Nellai, Tuti and KK, flooding will cause more damage due to lesser area and smaller number of lakes and ponds.
lesser area and small number of lakes and ponds.?? so many dams are there. No. , those places are very vast.
If the dams are full, then there will be damage to crops due to lesser number of lakes there. I am also basically from that places.
Flooding is rare phenemon in nellai city as soil Is a mix of red and alluvial since nellai gets very neligible rain in swm so soil is bereft of moisture so every water goes into soil
Yes partly True, for these rains, some people waited for nearly 15 years or more..esp in Tuti district. Let it flood.
That true tuty and nellainellai dist had cyclone in late 90s lead to flooding that is very rare
Massive rain moderately heavy at ttimes continuing along the coast from midnight..
While rains are possible by 26th/27th Nov,I personally am bullish on system driven rains by 1st week Dec spanning 2 weeks.
Pointers are good — MJO coming into Phase 3 with heightened activity,IOD moving away from its positive values to Zero.
SOI is also slowly coming to -5.
Bloggers can access the following links to get some idea of the current data and also to understand the concepts.
1.Why IOD– Typically a negative IOD favours systems in the Indian Ocean as eastern part of IO gets warmer than the western side.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/IOD/about_IOD.shtml
2.Current forecasts for IOD:
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/poama2.4/poama.shtml#IOD
3.MJO- Phase 2 and Phase 3 are good for us.If the values are plotted outside the inner circle,its an indication of higher amplitude.For example you can see that from 26th Nov,its entering Phase 2 with a higher amplitude
http://www.kylemacritchie.com/real-time-maps/realtime-mjo/
We are getting really pounded . I don’t think I have seen such heavy and sustained rain in our area in the past.
Where are you from?
Thisayanvillai. Small town deep south. I won’t be offended if you have not heard of it.
enjoy and more rains are on cards with some gusty winds expected next week along with good rain in s tn
5.6 earthquake, 44km ENE of Khawhai, India. Nov 21 00:44 at epicenter (depth 42km). http://j.mp/11yHPWO
Radar shows rains forming in south east 200km from Chennai too.. So possible rains tomorrow. 🙂
Radar or satellite ?
Radar, but not now.
It is satellite, radar won’t show
It says Dopler Radar Animation in the title of that page? So its not radar?
Good morning,
This NEM 2014 reminds me of 2010.
In November 2010, i have been to Kumbakonam by train.
When i started from Egmore, it was dry already for 10 days.
I was travelling quietly, when we crossed Villupuram and reached Panruti,
entire climate changed, it was raining heavily from that place, we were
crossing the river Pennar, it was full of water and almost flash floods gushing
through the river bed. Since then whichever river we cross we could see full of
floods.
Arrived in Kumbakonam in the afternoon and went to temples,
rains all the way, water running through the roads, greenish everywhere. Stayed
there for 2 days and visited lots of temples in the rain. Whenever we start
from one temple, the rain stops, then when we arrive at another temple rain
starts.
Then on Sunday afternoon we have started through bus, it
started at 01.30PM. Rain Rain everywhere, again when we were crossing rivers we
saw the same floods, bus driver could not drive faster as the rains were very
heavy.
Finally we reached Panruti around 04.30PM, dark clouds were
passing by, once we started from that place and crossed Pennar, i could not
believe my eyes, the roads are completely dry. I was feeling that i am seeing
dry roads after 3 days. I could not digest, and thought how nature is partial
at that time and i was very angry after seeing those dry roads.
Finally reached Chennai around 09.00PM, got down in
Vadapalani and went to my T Nagar home.
Then in second half of November and December 2010 the deficit
over Chennai is recovered, heavy rains has taken the deficit to normal.
The same pattern going on now, hence i would say that things
will change in coming days.
Good one and hopefully the first big para of the day
rainfall description wise its OK Partha.
But 2014 can not mimic 2010 😦 Reason both years’ ENSO-states are different.
rami,
i am not saying in technical angle, i just got the memory of that year, after marriage i went on religious tour for the first time.
why dont you go again to prove your point for the second half
Let him take rao too
given my opinion below 🙂
He he just kidding bro
no joke pa. atleast by his visit, we can have recovering rain in dec
Ok, we all go to the holy tour once again
Nice one Partha..Happens , what to do..I am hopeful of a good revival..
those were the glorious NEM years, since 2011 it has really been bad.
Hello, 2011 was too good..We got about 850 mm in both SWM and NEM..Only 12 and 13 NEM were terrible.
Blog down… Yet again
Resource limit reached
same for me…
Can i please know if some of you are coming through a different way than blog.keaweather.org?
https://disqus.com/home/discussion/keaweatherchennai/dry_weekend_likely_for_chennai_rains_to_continue_in_s_tn/
please use direct blog.keaweather.org
any reasons?, someone else asked me to use the discss url directly.
that seems to consume more resources..
wind direction improving
BLOG IS WORKING NOW
cumulus congestus over paris
https://m.ak.fbcdn.net/sphotos-d.ak/hphotos-ak-xpf1/v/t1.0-9/1898233_10152884145112139_5297595139163923172_n.jpg?oh=0403d85d4d1d94031e0bbfb8a73194cb&oe=550D1DCB&__gda__=1424112372_fdf6ab6912c53c41b67600bbf658bdc9
photograph taken by Bertrand Kulik,
awesome! 😀 Seems like Shelf clouds! 😀
Reminder regarding the quiz. Entries will be accepted till noon.
http://forum.keaweather.org/viewtopic.php?f=42&t=350
Kea, I have mailed you my answers.. Pls check it out..
got it
Can someone forecast whether we can log in without any break
so again v r going into the days like nilofer days…. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_asia_264_precip_p24.gif
This should not happen.. Oh no…
Arabian sea system on 28th, moving in NNW direction initially.
Nowadays NEM also doing good for Kerala and Coastal KTK.
From 22nd to 25th we have good chance of rain.
Selvan,
ECMWF not picking arabian sea system??
oh..quite surprising.
all gone to sleep
By rao’s mjo-soi theory cyclonegensis is possible in arb ?
Flash News,
ECMWF has very positive forecast for TN, Low in GOM on 26th and 27th.
We should get good rainfall over entire TN till 28th november.
By 29th November the Low moves to Arabian sea and moving along the west coast then another low coming in from SE bay on 30th.
bang on Chennai , may be a long range for,ct, on dec 6th ..hope it happens cheers..
cfs forecast is very interesting.. cfs forecast wich came out during first week of november has met the expectations nearly 85% ..they hinted two to three disturbances in arb sea. ..now their forecast showing a system in s.bay around novemebr 27th, affecting entire tn around 29th of november.. and another follow up system hitting s.ap round dec 5th ..and yet another system in the last week of december hitting n.tn -s.ap ..and the story goeson as monsoon extending into january and story finishing of with one very strong system in january first week
Engappa irundha evlo naala
opening ellam nallathan irukku… finishing illiye pa?
natures balancing act this 10days for stn and next 15days for ntn and coastal areas…lets see..
All our dreams comes true
It we who are balancing in our minds!
Can we expect 2000/3000 comments in a day or two ?
all depends on rain
We will have
2000 comments without rain or with rain?
With rain, it will happen more than twice at least
for the first time i see captain in the past 4/ 5 days, saying some thing positive, without summarily rejecting, which gives some hope that we will have at least next week.
I didn’t say it will rain. 2000 comments depends on rain. If it rains we will cross. If it doesn’t rain we wont cross.
Its as simple as that
by seeing experts comments today, good rain may happen at least next week.
how about we having 260+ days raining… It will be other way round.. comments will flow when it is sunny..
even for dry days we cross 200 to 300 comments now a days. which affirms the positiveness with our bloggers
any rain today for nagapattinam district
Good rainfall prospect from 22nd to 28th all over TN for sure.
As per the reliable ECMWF, we should get low and accompanied by strong easterlies from 23rd, we will get good rainfall.
That low in GOM will move towards Arabian Sea from 29th or 30th.
Rain filled remaining days of November is expected.
East to West shear zone formation is possible over 10N at 1.5KM above sea level, this is the first step before low formation in south bay.
Also SOI will increase from -9.5 to -5.0 in the coming days since the MSLP near Darwin is falling below average, since south indian ocean tropical storm “Adjali”. It is expected to slowly weaken in next 48 hours.
Another factior influenced me that NEM still on cards is the moisture.
We did had above normal minimum temp for the past 2 weeks even though it was dry, this will not happen during winter.
So after a disastrous November for Chennai, looks like NEM rains might be extended to December and January if forecasts hold true.
2012 was a real disaster and this November is certainly not by any means and mind you the month is far from over..Till date we have got about 50 % of November quota..
N.E.M Failure continued for last 3 yrs why mostly to north coastal tamilnadu why what is the main factor please answer my question ?
ji ,v hav got decent nem so far… v shldnt say its a failure..
yes upto now its been normal for Chennai. We have reached the break even point. Every dry day adds to the deficit from now on
today deuce. tomorrow adv. nem ..
yesterday was +2.3 mm
today it should be negative lets see/
I was really excited to see dark clouds by around 9 am today morning. something seems to happen. let us see.
don’t expect rains from this system. its not happening
And then Game NEM for North TN…
It is not failure.NEM provided good rainfall so far this year. Still one month to go. So don’t say it is failure.
DONT USE THE WORD FAILURE……..EVEN 2011 WE GOT RAIN ONLY AFTER NOV 24 ….SO DAYS ARE THERE DUDE
Last 3 years?? we had a super 2011..Got about 1600 mm annual rains for our region..N TN was enjoying all the rains since the start of NEM on Oct 17th..How can you forget all the rains we have had so far..Just because its not raining now in our region you have concluded it as a failure..Thus far except for North Arcot districts like Vellore, TV Malai, Virudhunagar and Trichy . all other regions are in excess..Pray and thank nature for the role its doing in the regions where its is raining and i am sure nature will reciprocate and bless our region also soon..
Please refrain from using this word “FAILURE” without analyzing actual reports..
Moreover the season is far from over and expectations are running sky high and we are way better off compared to what it was last year same time..
Omg tiruchendur, satankulam 19cm tvli tuty dist got battered
Nanguneri 17cm
what a rain
Flash News
Strong system formation over SE bay by 04th December.
Cyclogenesis probability is high.
Where is land mark srilanka to south a.p
it is tough to predict now, lets wait for 7 more days atleast.
LINK PLEASE
once our bloggers worries only if the rain wave goes to ap, now even if it goes to s.tn,central tn our bloggers r worrying..
good rainfall in s.tn, c.tn is always good, for farm products, which will reduce price raise.
It should rain over and above our heads for not worrying.. 🙂
IN 2013 NOVEMEBR WE USED TO SEE VERY CLEAR SKY AND MAX TEMP IS 32 AND 33 WITH MIN WILL DROP BY 21 AND 22,
IN 2014 NOV- WE ARE SEEING CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR PAST THREE DAYS…WITH MAX NOT REACHING ABOVE 32 AND MININUM NOT GOING BELOW 25.
RESULT:
NEM GOING TO BE VIGOROUS IN TAMILNADU IN COMING DAYS
TUTICORIN TOWN IS FLODDED WITH RAIN WATERS
Partha: it is tough to predict now, lets wait for 7 more days atleast.
@disqus_t5BoD7uk8P:disqus what does that mean? 7 more days of dry weather and then we will know of rain chances?
see the question first from Vinoth Kannan.
I said cyclogenesis probability high from 04th December over SE bay.
then Vinoth Kanna asked a question like “Which is the landfall”?
I said for that we have to wait for 7 days.
It is not about rainfall projection, it was about LF of december first week system.
okay, so chances high for Chennai from 27th system?
yes till 28th we have good rain.
Can anyone update current water level in Vaigai Dam ?
Roofs Collapse Under Snow in Western New York
http://www.ndtv.com/article/world/roofs-collapse-under-snow-in-western-new-york-623813?pfrom=home-topstories
please see the 28th November forecast
MJO in Phase 3, increase in amplitude to 1.5, expected to touch 2 by tomorrow.
its positive sign for chennai?
please see the links 28 november
Lots of POPUPS over SE of Chennai…
Once again RADAR getting active.
Dec 1st wk-Ashobaa, 3rd wk-Komen, Jan 1st wk-Chapala….landfall places-Alampara fort, Kalpakkam, Ennore resp…I can c everything..grrrrrrrr…ZZZZzzzzzz….
nothing for Adam city ???
Will give details abt path n rainfall amt after tonight’s dream
Ashoba/ Komen still now over?
ODM,
lots of tiny dots in RADAR in and around Chennai, watch the tiny yellow dot south of Kanchi.
as i said day before, it is picking up.
I sat it today morning itself..
get ready with your catamarans, watch out for first week cyclone.
Planning to do ‘kachak’ and sell them on quikr
Get ready for Dec 7th Chennai marathon
Running tmrw for dusk to dawn?
just a small one tomorrow
A huge gang of my family members is participating on behalf of the Multiple Sclerosis society.
Those popups over northeast of chennai flaresup we may get some showers
please link the coastal south tamilnadu radar
for whole TN at present only one Chennai radar
not seen any popup in south coastal tamilnadu
I commented about rain for chennai only
its official from imd.. nilofer was stronger than hudhud..
if cyclone forms in arabian sea means our dec 1 week system possibility will go down so therefore we dont want a cyclone in arabian sea during nxt week
chennai radar..
good
according to this good rains are expected in chennai
Nope. According to this, possibility of Cyclone formation is quite high in Arabian sea. It’s not good for Chennai…
its south west monsoon in arabian sea getting all the moisture and produced rains for west coast our bay of bengal did not active why ?
ashoaba will be stronger than phailin and also 1999 odhisha cyclone :p
atchu , still wait for it to develop its still now a lpa so dont conclude anything and mostly as of now it is moving into arabian sea
oh my god……then we cant get any system ah
????
we don’t want ashoobaa in Arabian sea 😦
thats all gods fate
Gods way of overbalancing
My mom said me during 1996 there is continous wet days in december…….than november
Latest satellite pic shows east and western part of Tamilnadu will get rain except Chennai.
we want cyclone like nisha
no not nisha gave us only winds
who said that is nilam…..dont confuse nisha and nilam….
nisha gave widspread rain to 660 mm to orathanadu in just 24 hours
and 180 mm to chennai
srry yeah got confused with nilam 2012
nilam to gave wd rain but not for tn only for rayalaseema
yeah i know nilam gave good rains to south ap ,but only good winds here in chennai
not only winds
rain also there .. we got 82 mm in 24 hour 31 oct
8 cm yeah ,but you expect much more from a cyclone than mere 8 cms
chennai neigh districts like tiruvallur , vellore got more rains in nilam……if u see the oct 2012 rainfall mean it is excess….but nov and dec 2012 is a completely failure
it was very less rainfall more winds overall from nilam in N.TN and yes 2012 was NEM failure for us
hudhud also windt type cyclone ah?
bcoz vizag got only 146 mm on oct 11 and oct 12
a place in vizianagaram got 38cm in 24hrs
some other place also recorded 55 cms+ in just 24 hours.i donno the name.HUDHUD is a massive cyclone.NISHA cannot be compared to HUDHUD.HUDHUD rains may have exceeded even 70 CMS+ but correct rainfall was not measured at many places due to radar collapsing at many stations because of 200+KMPH speed.HUDHUD is a cyclone which has a very powerful eye
in the recent years.
Ellamanchili too
Just check records
i mistook nisha for nilam ,We dont want a system like nilam again
Fine,we will have at least ogni type if not nisha
hey jeet what is ogni?
when it came? what happen to tn?
It was a deep depression which formed on oct 2006 and gave good rains to coastal areas and later become a cyclone just before making it’s landfall.It was the smallest tropical cyclone on north indian ocean with winds only of 60kmph
wr it made lf
S.ap around nellore belt
NELLORE = NELL + ORE——–NELL IS TAMIL WORD ONLY LA…THEN HOW AP CAN KEEP TAMIL NAME
We just gifted them
LOL
before states divided according to the majority of language spoken in that particular region, andhra was also a part of erstwhile madras presidency, you can see lot of tamil stone inscriptions in thirumala temple also
You are right to some extent, but nothing beyond nellore
yes, other places came under hyd.nizam rule
Madras Presidency (also known as Madras Province and known officially as Presidency of Fort St. George), was a province of British India. At its greatest extent, Madras Presidency included much of southern India, including the present-day Indian State of Tamil Nadu, the Malabar region of North Kerala, Lakshadweep Islands, the Coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema regions of Andhra Pradesh, Brahmapur and Ganjam districts of Orissa and the Bellary, Dakshina Kannada, and Udupi districts of Karnataka. The presidency had its capital at Madras (now known as Chennai).
source : wikipedia
Super
tht’s why we can see lot of tamil words in telugu, odia, malayalam, kannada etc
Absolutely, only 100 to 150 kms around radius has similar things like tn
Just Google it, this small storm has very unique features
how much rainfall in chennai from ogni any guess
we got 50 cms of rain in 4 to 6 days
That should be great if a rain bearing system like ogni comes to us 😀
Forecast looks really positive for chennai on 28th! 🙂
Gfs meteogram and foreca predicting heavy showers..
still a long way to go.
just one day on 28th November its passing showers, please shows the links for nagapattinam
http://monsoondata.org/wx2/meteogram2.html
http://www.foreca.com/India/State_of_Tamil_Nadu/Nagappattinam
http://www.wunderground.com/q/zmw:00000.1.43346
Don’t go by early forecast it change every 12 hrs
look at the forecast for trincomalee :O
just WOW!!!!!
AWESOME
All models xcept ecm started to pick future arab sea system possibly Ashooba by nxt week 😦
Bad news for our NEM 😦
what is that?
many models picking up a system in arabian sea it might become a cyclone just like nilofer.And that is bad for our nem.
if a cycloe form in central and northbay only ..that is bad for nem….
if arabian sea mean it wont suck most moisture from bob:
so no problem will be for our easterly wave
If a strong system like nilofer forms it will take moisture from bob
Only 25% chance if it was very strong, but it won’t become that much strong around western coast, so not much to worry about it
okay then np
after nilofar we had three disturbances……2 lpa and one trough
That was our peak NEM period it might not happen every time.
ok how was your area morning hour climate u being minambakkam im asking
it was windy and cloudy in the morning and now sunshine outside .why are you asking these lol?
being some mountainous area tambaram to minambakkam will witness more chilly in morning hours during nov – feb…than compare to city side
yes it is pleasant in the morning hours
the same mountains gives more hot in this region, when compared to city
But will have more heat because of the same mountains in summer, but city has cool breeze from bay to chill
that right my uncle is in pallavaram….im in saidapet…. i cant tollerate that pallavaram heat in summer……
you can feel the difference as you pass meenambakkam while travelling in the suburban trains but when you pass chromepet the heat goes off.
yeah but sea breeze sets in the evening time here during summer around 4 pm
But some times even late
yeah but most of the times the temperature comes down after 4 pm might be late only on rare occasions
you can feel the difference in heat when you are near to triplicane and neighboring areas
yeah i agree with that those places are far cooler since they are very near to sea
the positive side of our area is we have more fresh air, compared to city
What is np
np mena no problem dude
I thought north ap
“no problem”
Fine
lanfall?
Fizzles out like nilofar
Mangalyaan Among Best Inventions of 2014: TIME Magazine
http://www.ndtv.com/article/india/mangalyaan-among-best-inventions-of-2014-time-magazine-623830?pfrom=home-topstories
You will score best marks for extracurricular activities in kea blog
THANK YOU thank you
in a latest experiment by an u.s agency, life can’t hold for more than a month in mars
cyclone Gonu in Arabian sea! 😀 Pls have a look at the video..
[video src="http://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?title=File%3ACyclone_Gonu_(2007)_Meteosat_7_Infrared_Satellite_animation.ogv" /]
Tamil Nadu gets rainfall after a break,ending 8.30 am on 19.11.2014
================================
The trough of low at mean sea level over south Andaman Sea and neighbourhood now lies over equatorial Indian Ocean and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal. Ramanathapuram, Pudukottai, Thanjavur and Tutucorin all got good widespread rains.
in mm (min 20 mm)
Pamban – 97
Madukkur – 68
Rameswaram – 68
Vettikadu – 68
Neyvassal – 65
Thalainayaru – 62
Ramnad Nicra – 60
Thirumarugal – 60
Kollidam – 58
Manalmedu – 57
Kamudhi – 56
Kariyur – 55
Sirkali – 52
Thiruthuraipoondi – 50
Thiruvarankulam – 50
Alangudi – 49
Chidambaram – 48
Vedaranyam – 47
Kodavasal – 46
Pattukottai – 45
Orthanad – 45
Peravurani – 43
K.M.koil – 42
Viralimalai – 40
Manamelkudi – 40
Gudimiyanmalai – 40
Mannargudi – 39
Muthupet – 38
Ichanvidudhi – 38
Ramanathapuram – 38
Pudukottai – 37
Vallam – 36
Sembanarkoil – 36
Adirampatnam – 34
Lower Anaicut – 34
Tiruvarur – 33
Jayamkondam – 32
Mayiladuthurai – 31
Nagapattinam – 30
Gandarvakottai – 29
Valangaiman – 28
Sethiathope – 27
Karaikal – 26
R.S.mangalam – 26
Manapparai – 25
Memeesal – 25
Andimadam – 25
Tondi – 24
Devakottai – 23
Ponnamaravathi – 23
Lalapet – 22
Nagudi – 22
Karumgulam – 22
Bogalur – 21
Mudukulatur – 21
Paramakudi – 20
Nannilam – 20
Tirumayam – 19
Karaikudi – 20
Papanasam – 20
Kadavur – 20
Athankottai – 20
Ponniyaru – 20
Upper Kodayar – 20
Kea Converse – http://forum.keaweather.org/viewforum.php?f=12
TWM – https://www.facebook.com/tamilnaduweatherman
Vagaries Rainman – http://tamilnaduweatherman.blogspot.in/p/tamil-nadu-daily-rainfall-report.html
You blogged in lunch break, am I right
Wow right Jeet
As expected Cola showing towers. This november is going to end on a wet note.
I think it’s Just for one day?!
1 hr also ok for us
yes if it is heavy
*_*
really anna….
Once again, I got faith on your wordings, so guys cheers
Arabians sea system expected in that region by 28th.
The low which is going to form in south bay will be in Gulf of Mannar from 24th to 27th, this low will move to arabian sea by 28th, this will intensify into a strong system.
Till 28th we will get good rainfall.
tat indonesian circulation has spoiled our sys frm being a well defined one 😦
After 28th, The bay might get dried up. Seems like another D or DD goin in direction towards guj. Only time will unfold what wil happen after that
Anybody has heard about cyclones named in Tamil (ARANI, ANITA) ? They were originated in South Atlantic cyclones 😀 Interesting piece of info
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Atlantic_tropical_cyclone#Tropical_Storm_Anita
S Bay Trough is intensifying compared to yday..
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-269.59,5.69,2048
in which direction is it moving?does it favour us?
as of now only a broad area of trough. ..compared to yday it moved south overall & same is confirmed by IMD to ay it now lies in Equatorial region.. we need to wait & see…
Will there any benefit to Chennai due to this
IMD Mid Day
♦ An upper air cyclonic circulation lies over southwest Bay of Bengal off
Sri Lanka coast and extends upto 0.9 km above mean sea level.
Heavy rainfall warning given for TN from tomorrow.
partha do we stand any chance..
between 22nd and 28th we will get good rainfall.
170 la se la perusa onnu kelambudhe, varuma pa
Varum Ana Varathu! 😛
Looks like cloudy………
itcz line is expected to move bit north twrds 10 TO 11N and linger there for next 3 to 4 weeks… Tis is one promising sign for active monsoon in december
Selva……u r giving confidence………..Hats off to you…………..
:’)
Another good news
Jupi,
This is what i said today morning, darwin mslp reducing due to system in south indian ocean.
further increase can be expected.
Yes ECMWF expects soi to increase further during next 10 days!!!
It has been increased drastically!
but it is all over for November is it
No we have 1 more week
I still believe there will be something by 28th/29th
Soi is in the increasing trend, so we might have heavy rain soon!
yeaaa 😀
NEM not yet over!
Yes yes
oru whistle podu Valsaravakkam
Hahaha but good news indeed 🙂
Why Jupi, you too are expecting rain instead of a Cyclone?
Conditions are becoming favorable for cyclogenesis over BOB!!!
Yes. By November end and or December first week onwards, this blog will have a field day.
MEAN STRONG SYSTEMS CAN GO TO AP
Conditions are not favorable for AP landfall
Don’t increase by BP! : )
How coming december will be?
a) more wet days
b) unexpected heavy rain
c)same as november
d) more dry days with < 10 mm rain
More wet days… See my post below
option b
LOL
Tahiti MSLP set to increase in coming days as dry air occupying that region. This is wonderful opportunity for NEM to bounce back. If Tahiti increases, Darwin MSLP will decrease and bring in more precipitation.
Hence SOI set to increase, in the next 10 days, we can see SOI nearing -2.0.
and heavy rains for sure!
Soi moving towards 0 it seems
We may have to wait for a fortnight to get rain 🙂
No way!
We will get rains after 26th.
Will be happy if that happens…
This also looks promising for rain in chennai before 29th may be around 50 to 70 mm min
http://www.monsoondata.org/wx2/prec.html
It will turn more positive.
yes till yesterday not positive for chennai till nov end, but now all models shows some rain in chennai before the end of this month.
See PJ whenever you are back the blog turns positive – moral of the story -even if you are occupied just say hi to everyone.
One more thing is, rains also will be back, that is PJ ‘s raaaaasi
May ?
its may be
Fine
In the coming days they will update the december first week, more precipitation expected that time.
Innumapa indha ulagam Nambnuthu
29th may ku innum 6 maasam iruku sir
As the predicted sys in arab sea gains latitude we shouls see som rains towards the end of nov
The days to watch out for is 25th to 27th, going to be very heavy rains.
HPA decreasing over TN to 1008 that time.
HPA might decrease but are you sure about hvy rains?
For chennai or for South TN?
oh suddenly raining here!!!!!!!!!!!
WHERE UNCLE
Uncle?
Omg really?
Yes dont tell Kea – I meant the Blog – raining with good news
Hahaha
Enga sir?
Namma singara chennaiyil thaan
Sathiyama Peyathu….
Avalavu joorava peyathu
Varum ana varathu….!
Read my reply to Jupijove’s comment (ush quietly)
even here it stopped soon I think
We need to be practical about having heavy rains in Dec…
what is the theory you found???
when did I say I found a theory???
you said we have to be practical??
yeah wats wrong in that?????? what are you trying to say?
first you have to explain about december rains, since you said to be practical, we all have said our opinion on december month rain.
November is the wettest month and when it fails to rain during the peak NEM month, do you think the probability of having rains in a month after the peak season is high or less?
check out my first comment of the day, you have the answer given already.
nem has its own passion.
He did not understand your “theory” and “practical” points
Light to moderate rain will start in north coastal TN and Pondy from tomorrow…
DRIZZLING IN CUDDALORE
Lookslike rainman “naarathar” started to play his usual game/role, last time it was odm and now Mr partha, he he, I just said the fact, don’t mistake me rain/birdman and partha
Built up la north TN ku nalla iruku.., but result illaye.. Inime chennai rain varadu romba kastam pola… South TN rocks
CAN ANY ONE SAY WHAT IS ACTUAL AND NORMAL RAINFALL FIGURE FOR CHENNAI AS ON 21/11/2014
Wait for susa
SUSA MEAN
Sudharsan, Maddy, liitle pj and head of pa group
WHERE IS MORE AGRICULTURE DOING?
NTN OR STN OR CTN
Everywhere expect chennai and other cities in tn
hey i think ur wrong jeetu….bcoz in thuthukudi there is no agriculture
I said in majority,India is an agricultural country right, so in that you are asking why Rajasthan is a desert?
LOL
What to do, i have to answer these typical questions in typical manner, its like thorn should be removed by thorn only, he he
http://www.imdchennai.gov.in/rdwr.htm
OMG
Tuticorin rocking
So far rainfall 751MM this season, deviation is 457MM.
60% excess and leading TN.
mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/06/gfs_asia_117_precip_p06.gif
Quiz results as well as the points table updated
http://forum.keaweather.org/viewforum.php?f=42
South TN is having an amazing spell this NEM!! happy for them! As parthsri said Tuticoin has been rocking right from the NEM setting in on Oct 18th! What a turn around for a town which hardly had any rain or a long 4month period from June to Sept during the SWM season !! And we Chennaiites are feeling the pinch of loosing the glorious time of NEM – d last week of Oct because of Nilofer , hoping that much is in store for Nov. Now Nov is kinda only ok till now!! But stil its a decent monsoon for Chennai nd couple of good spells will turn the tables around for Chennai!! Fingers crossed big tym!!
It’s so depressing to see so dry november. Can’t really express in words how sad iam to see a November like this.
Not only you, there is a huge gang of kea members in the same ship, he he
Awesome news, ECMWF expects a huge trough in BOB by December first week with one circulation in SW BOB and another one at a higher latitude in Andaman Sea..
6.8 earthquake, 119km WNW of Tobelo, Indonesia. Nov 21 18:10 at epicenter (depth 10km). http://j.mp/1BTpKDI
Revised (6.8 -> 6.9): 6.9 earthquake, 119km WNW of Tobelo, Indonesia. Nov 21 18:10 at epicenter (depth 1… http://j.mp/1BTpXql
mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/06/gfs_asia_183_precip_p06.gif
The next circulation has started to build up nicely near Aceh.
will that give rains to chennai>?
it might
It should and it will
Aided by easterlies and westerlies
Guys whats happening to chennai. South TN is enjoying like anything whereas north TN which supports 75% of TN population is suffering with all the lakes in Chennai dry. Saw the news the current level of water is enough only for two more months.
no it is actually STN and CTN is supporting NTN with all their agriculture products…
sorry I dont get you. can you be clear
the system over south indian ocean is the culprit, which did not allow the convection to form over north tn, it has also pulled in the ridge southwards to near north tn.
once that system weakens, everything will come back to normal.
Rainman Checking the December and November rainfall. It has no relation.
who won, practical or theoritical
Latest gfs run puts no or vry lil rain for us nxt 192 hrs
OMG. That is for 8 days no rain. What a terrible pain. If that is so. ok I should make my mind that NEM 2014 is more or less closed chapter.
Dont trust that!
don’t look at forecasts. It will rain, this is our monsoon. If it doesn’t rain now, when will it?
OMG. Note I am again using OMG. This is the most positive comment of KEA ever.
NEM is getting boring. We need some action soon
yes, we need it asap. Hope things change with 48 hours.
Cool! jst posted model’s perspective
well said, itha. itha than ethirparthom.
That GFS model will be gone in a couple of weeks! 😛
ok. What parallel GFS is saying jupi
Good rains for us! 🙂 its the opposite!
Tat gfs? All similar na
no it might match ECMWF!!!
Watch out! :0