934 thoughts on “Dry weekend likely for Chennai, rains to continue in S. TN

  1. Gud mng all, the dry spell continues as the thread topic says, but hope for rains in the next 2-3 days. Iam optimistic as ever but scenario currently not for any sudden turnaround.

  2. ECMWF expects system to take NW turn after going south of SL into GOM. If this happens and it goes into S TN coast, there are good chances of extremely widespread heavy rain over TN and bands might reach even till S AP

    • Yes. many are saying NEM is over for Chennai. Last week will give good rains to Chennai. Only Rains can put

      an end to their words. Especially our captain Ehsan.

      • lesser area and small number of lakes and ponds.?? so many dams are there. No. , those places are very vast.

      • If the dams are full, then there will be damage to crops due to lesser number of lakes there. I am also basically from that places.

      • Flooding is rare phenemon in nellai city as soil Is a mix of red and alluvial since nellai gets very neligible rain in swm so soil is bereft of moisture so every water goes into soil

      • Yes partly True, for these rains, some people waited for nearly 15 years or more..esp in Tuti district. Let it flood.

      • That true tuty and nellainellai dist had cyclone in late 90s lead to flooding that is very rare

  3. While rains are possible by 26th/27th Nov,I personally am bullish on system driven rains by 1st week Dec spanning 2 weeks.
    Pointers are good — MJO coming into Phase 3 with heightened activity,IOD moving away from its positive values to Zero.

    SOI is also slowly coming to -5.

  4. Bloggers can access the following links to get some idea of the current data and also to understand the concepts.

    1.Why IOD– Typically a negative IOD favours systems in the Indian Ocean as eastern part of IO gets warmer than the western side.
    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/IOD/about_IOD.shtml

    2.Current forecasts for IOD:
    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/poama2.4/poama.shtml#IOD

    3.MJO- Phase 2 and Phase 3 are good for us.If the values are plotted outside the inner circle,its an indication of higher amplitude.For example you can see that from 26th Nov,its entering Phase 2 with a higher amplitude
    http://www.kylemacritchie.com/real-time-maps/realtime-mjo/

  5. Good morning,

    This NEM 2014 reminds me of 2010.

    In November 2010, i have been to Kumbakonam by train.

    When i started from Egmore, it was dry already for 10 days.
    I was travelling quietly, when we crossed Villupuram and reached Panruti,
    entire climate changed, it was raining heavily from that place, we were
    crossing the river Pennar, it was full of water and almost flash floods gushing
    through the river bed. Since then whichever river we cross we could see full of
    floods.

    Arrived in Kumbakonam in the afternoon and went to temples,
    rains all the way, water running through the roads, greenish everywhere. Stayed
    there for 2 days and visited lots of temples in the rain. Whenever we start
    from one temple, the rain stops, then when we arrive at another temple rain
    starts.

    Then on Sunday afternoon we have started through bus, it
    started at 01.30PM. Rain Rain everywhere, again when we were crossing rivers we
    saw the same floods, bus driver could not drive faster as the rains were very
    heavy.

    Finally we reached Panruti around 04.30PM, dark clouds were
    passing by, once we started from that place and crossed Pennar, i could not
    believe my eyes, the roads are completely dry. I was feeling that i am seeing
    dry roads after 3 days. I could not digest, and thought how nature is partial
    at that time and i was very angry after seeing those dry roads.

    Finally reached Chennai around 09.00PM, got down in
    Vadapalani and went to my T Nagar home.

    Then in second half of November and December 2010 the deficit
    over Chennai is recovered, heavy rains has taken the deficit to normal.

    The same pattern going on now, hence i would say that things
    will change in coming days.

  6. Flash News,

    ECMWF has very positive forecast for TN, Low in GOM on 26th and 27th.

    We should get good rainfall over entire TN till 28th november.
    By 29th November the Low moves to Arabian sea and moving along the west coast then another low coming in from SE bay on 30th.



  7. cfs forecast is very interesting.. cfs forecast wich came out during first week of november has met the expectations nearly 85% ..they hinted two to three disturbances in arb sea. ..now their forecast showing a system in s.bay around novemebr 27th, affecting entire tn around 29th of november.. and another follow up system hitting s.ap round dec 5th ..and yet another system in the last week of december hitting n.tn -s.ap ..and the story goeson as monsoon extending into january and story finishing of with one very strong system in january first week

  8. Good rainfall prospect from 22nd to 28th all over TN for sure.
    As per the reliable ECMWF, we should get low and accompanied by strong easterlies from 23rd, we will get good rainfall.
    That low in GOM will move towards Arabian Sea from 29th or 30th.
    Rain filled remaining days of November is expected.

    East to West shear zone formation is possible over 10N at 1.5KM above sea level, this is the first step before low formation in south bay.

    Also SOI will increase from -9.5 to -5.0 in the coming days since the MSLP near Darwin is falling below average, since south indian ocean tropical storm “Adjali”. It is expected to slowly weaken in next 48 hours.

    Another factior influenced me that NEM still on cards is the moisture.
    We did had above normal minimum temp for the past 2 weeks even though it was dry, this will not happen during winter.

  9. So after a disastrous November for Chennai, looks like NEM rains might be extended to December and January if forecasts hold true.

    • 2012 was a real disaster and this November is certainly not by any means and mind you the month is far from over..Till date we have got about 50 % of November quota..

  10. N.E.M Failure continued for last 3 yrs why mostly to north coastal tamilnadu why what is the main factor please answer my question ?

    • Last 3 years?? we had a super 2011..Got about 1600 mm annual rains for our region..N TN was enjoying all the rains since the start of NEM on Oct 17th..How can you forget all the rains we have had so far..Just because its not raining now in our region you have concluded it as a failure..Thus far except for North Arcot districts like Vellore, TV Malai, Virudhunagar and Trichy . all other regions are in excess..Pray and thank nature for the role its doing in the regions where its is raining and i am sure nature will reciprocate and bless our region also soon..

      • Moreover the season is far from over and expectations are running sky high and we are way better off compared to what it was last year same time..

  11. IN 2013 NOVEMEBR WE USED TO SEE VERY CLEAR SKY AND MAX TEMP IS 32 AND 33 WITH MIN WILL DROP BY 21 AND 22,
    IN 2014 NOV- WE ARE SEEING CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR PAST THREE DAYS…WITH MAX NOT REACHING ABOVE 32 AND MININUM NOT GOING BELOW 25.

    RESULT:
    NEM GOING TO BE VIGOROUS IN TAMILNADU IN COMING DAYS

  12. Partha: it is tough to predict now, lets wait for 7 more days atleast.
    @disqus_t5BoD7uk8P:disqus what does that mean? 7 more days of dry weather and then we will know of rain chances?

  13. Dec 1st wk-Ashobaa, 3rd wk-Komen, Jan 1st wk-Chapala….landfall places-Alampara fort, Kalpakkam, Ennore resp…I can c everything..grrrrrrrr…ZZZZzzzzzz….

  14. if cyclone forms in arabian sea means our dec 1 week system possibility will go down so therefore we dont want a cyclone in arabian sea during nxt week

  15. Forecast looks really positive for chennai on 28th! πŸ™‚
    Gfs meteogram and foreca predicting heavy showers..
    still a long way to go.

  16. cyclone Gonu in Arabian sea! πŸ˜€ Pls have a look at the video..

    [video src="http://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?title=File%3ACyclone_Gonu_(2007)_Meteosat_7_Infrared_Satellite_animation.ogv" /]

  17. Tamil Nadu gets rainfall after a break,ending 8.30 am on 19.11.2014
    ================================
    The trough of low at mean sea level over south Andaman Sea and neighbourhood now lies over equatorial Indian Ocean and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal. Ramanathapuram, Pudukottai, Thanjavur and Tutucorin all got good widespread rains.

    in mm (min 20 mm)

    Pamban – 97
    Madukkur – 68
    Rameswaram – 68
    Vettikadu – 68
    Neyvassal – 65
    Thalainayaru – 62
    Ramnad Nicra – 60
    Thirumarugal – 60
    Kollidam – 58
    Manalmedu – 57
    Kamudhi – 56
    Kariyur – 55
    Sirkali – 52
    Thiruthuraipoondi – 50
    Thiruvarankulam – 50
    Alangudi – 49
    Chidambaram – 48
    Vedaranyam – 47
    Kodavasal – 46
    Pattukottai – 45
    Orthanad – 45
    Peravurani – 43
    K.M.koil – 42
    Viralimalai – 40
    Manamelkudi – 40
    Gudimiyanmalai – 40
    Mannargudi – 39
    Muthupet – 38
    Ichanvidudhi – 38
    Ramanathapuram – 38
    Pudukottai – 37
    Vallam – 36
    Sembanarkoil – 36
    Adirampatnam – 34
    Lower Anaicut – 34
    Tiruvarur – 33
    Jayamkondam – 32
    Mayiladuthurai – 31
    Nagapattinam – 30
    Gandarvakottai – 29
    Valangaiman – 28
    Sethiathope – 27
    Karaikal – 26
    R.S.mangalam – 26
    Manapparai – 25
    Memeesal – 25
    Andimadam – 25
    Tondi – 24
    Devakottai – 23
    Ponnamaravathi – 23
    Lalapet – 22
    Nagudi – 22
    Karumgulam – 22
    Bogalur – 21
    Mudukulatur – 21
    Paramakudi – 20
    Nannilam – 20
    Tirumayam – 19
    Karaikudi – 20
    Papanasam – 20
    Kadavur – 20
    Athankottai – 20
    Ponniyaru – 20
    Upper Kodayar – 20

    Kea Converse – http://forum.keaweather.org/viewforum.php?f=12
    TWM – https://www.facebook.com/tamilnaduweatherman
    Vagaries Rainman – http://tamilnaduweatherman.blogspot.in/p/tamil-nadu-daily-rainfall-report.html

  18. Arabians sea system expected in that region by 28th.
    The low which is going to form in south bay will be in Gulf of Mannar from 24th to 27th, this low will move to arabian sea by 28th, this will intensify into a strong system.

    Till 28th we will get good rainfall.

  19. itcz line is expected to move bit north twrds 10 TO 11N and linger there for next 3 to 4 weeks… Tis is one promising sign for active monsoon in december

  20. Tahiti MSLP set to increase in coming days as dry air occupying that region. This is wonderful opportunity for NEM to bounce back. If Tahiti increases, Darwin MSLP will decrease and bring in more precipitation.

    Hence SOI set to increase, in the next 10 days, we can see SOI nearing -2.0.

  21. Lookslike rainman “naarathar” started to play his usual game/role, last time it was odm and now Mr partha, he he, I just said the fact, don’t mistake me rain/birdman and partha

  22. South TN is having an amazing spell this NEM!! happy for them! As parthsri said Tuticoin has been rocking right from the NEM setting in on Oct 18th! What a turn around for a town which hardly had any rain or a long 4month period from June to Sept during the SWM season !! And we Chennaiites are feeling the pinch of loosing the glorious time of NEM – d last week of Oct because of Nilofer , hoping that much is in store for Nov. Now Nov is kinda only ok till now!! But stil its a decent monsoon for Chennai nd couple of good spells will turn the tables around for Chennai!! Fingers crossed big tym!!

  23. Awesome news, ECMWF expects a huge trough in BOB by December first week with one circulation in SW BOB and another one at a higher latitude in Andaman Sea..

  24. Guys whats happening to chennai. South TN is enjoying like anything whereas north TN which supports 75% of TN population is suffering with all the lakes in Chennai dry. Saw the news the current level of water is enough only for two more months.

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