An easterly wave is affecting Central and South TN coast causing rains and thundershowers over there. As we go deeper into the week, the showers would pick up in intensity and rains could reach till Pondicherry and areas farther north due to a northward movement of the trough. Chennai’s chances remain fluctuating. If the trough extends a bit more north, Chennai will experience good thundershowers.
Heavy rainfall is likely to occur from the trough from Thursday-Sunday over coastal parts of S, C TN and parts of N TN as mentioned. Let’s see how Chennai’s chances turn out.
One more interesting thing is the development of a system near Aceh by the 23rd/24th. As of now it is forecast to move towards SL, but it could cause heavy rains over TN.
KeaWeather Archives 
Gm guys
Hopefully Chennai will get rain by Friday..
So misty morning seems like moisture will be back by thursday and chance to get isolated showers in chennai.
Last system gave rains till central AP which is unexpected,we expected to rain till south AP..similarly expecting the current trough to extend till north TN from tomm..
Nagai,Thanjavur,Karaikal,Tiruvarur will get very good Rains and South Tamilnadu too.
Nagai,Thanjavur,Tiruvarur stands as central coastal and delta dist.
Being a central coast delta dist receives much showers from SE Bay systems and also SW Bay systems hence its rocks in NEM.
GM guys.. super cold here in chicago.. Temp touched -2 F here ( with wind chill )
The temp is only 18 F right now. It’s too early for negative F’s.
Rajesh yesterday the Real feel was -2 F here..
Good morning friends. Hope this day turn out to be a good day for all of you.
Iam praying for trough to extend till NTN coasts by tomorrow and give good heavy rains to chennai and other NTN districts please all of them pray for this like situation….
s..all of them should pray….
Maybe only divine intervention can now bring more rains for chennai.
Oh
No comments!!!
11
imd update
THE TROUGH OF LOW AT MSL SOUTH ANDMAN SEA AND N/H PERSISTS
Slowly models r picking up the intense first fortnight Dec rains.If Soi comes below -5 ..close to zero, we can expect a bonanza.Stay tuned
Cant expect much, this coming week we may have rains, but still we may finish this NEM in deficit. Forecasts bleak.
Have patience
November itself has been not spectacular so far mind u, it is the peak month of NEM. Weather and patience dont go hand in hand.
What about trough low at southandaman/n/h??
Gopal, are you taking it to next month? Feel November will close better than we expect. let us see..
bloggers totally absent past 2-3 days, dry days, no blogs.
Even this system fails to give us the rains, we got good chances around Nov last weeknto early December, so nem will not end in a deficit note
Yes now or never! This system is our last chance maybe.
No chande, how can you say everything is over around 20th nov itself, we have got super rains in DEC also
tell me how many years have we got super rains in DEC? November is thee month for NEM.
From Nov last week to DEC 2nd week average average rains for all time is more than 300+mms
Sanjay it was december that fetched us more rain than nnov last 3 years any more such years…be positive. We r already at 60 cm this season we cant complain abiut nem this season…there is no def pattern on rain in nem…another 20 cms to go for the remaining quota shoukd be possible in 40 days
Sanjay, You can’t conclude anything based on current scenario. Nature is very dynamic. U may post its pouring like Hell on next week! 🙂 I am gonna see it!
Deficit sure this NEM 2014, confirmed.
First tell how much rains we had till this nem
What about trough at southandaman u
We will have a system around last week of Nov , just wai and see
Whatever u say gone are the days when November mornings used to be dark and cloudy with a drizzle in the air.
Total dry clear days this Nov is 12, does not feel good when we are in the middle of NEM.
We had very poor November and got well balanced in December, so don’t get disappointed
Be confident. Don’t forgot we kea bloggers have brought the systems in North Bay of Bengal to TN.Our confidence and hope will surely bring rains to us. We bloggers will bring rains to chennai. Don’t worry about HPA, dry air etc etc. Rains are on the way. Lets welcome Rains bloggers, Come on cheer up.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (‪#‎ADJALI‬) WARNING NR 004 180600Z — NEAR 10.9S 69.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 145 DEGREES AT 09 KTS MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
159 year old photo of the Mahalakshmi Temple, Mumbai.It was built around 1761-1771 A.D. by Shri Ramji Shivji Prabhu.
Mumbai is like a dry desert…
sir its 243 years old if it was built on 1771
Can v start discuss about upcoming Summer ….. ?
It was a good day for Tamil Nadu rains. Everyone is talking about NEM failure with Chennai prespective. We should be happy that other parts of TN particularly Delta are getting good rains.
Yes you are correct PJ. The stretch from Nagai to kanyakumari getting good rains. Lets wait for the Rain bands to extend further North up to Chennai. Fingers crossed.
PJ,
I am very confident of TN rains that it will end with minimum Excess of 20 to 30%, i am posting this from the beginning of this NEM
but you also start discuss about summer, contradicting
I have posted my NEM prediction on 15th Sept.
Now its time to start discuss about Summer for Chennai
Agree PJ
Exacty
India Met said on Tuesday that a trough of lower pressure has already developed over south Andaman Sea. This could be the fountainhead for sustained activity though models are not sure if a major weather system is evolving in the Bay just yet.
Source:hindu business line.
Pamban 97 mm. Yesterday it got 22 mm. Widespread rains in Pudukottai, Ramanathapuram, Thanjavur districts.
Very active Easterlies in BOB!
Wow parallel gfs expects heavy rain for entire coastal TN including chennai!!!!
No chennai Jupie. The second low is also going to Comrin Sea.
But look at the precipitation!!!
Next few runs of the models will be interesting because mjo is entering BOB!!!
Normally we get heavy rains when a system enters GOM or Commorin…
so from when chennai will receive heavy rains…….
This looks good too!!!! 🙂
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2014111900/navgem_mslp_pcpn_ind.html
wow! 😀
Not sure jupi, we have to wait little bit more for the heavy rains
is that really you?
Why not? GFS version 2.0 is predicting heavy rains for us!!! 🙂 let’s have some faith
I know, but you have to answer the kea factor, see how soon he jumped into discuss
Rofl!!! There’s no such thing as Kea factor… 🙂
saw dragonflies in nunga..so rains are hidden somewhere out there. For week end..
Thats wat they are trying to find too…
Climate looks ideal for rain in another 2 days. Still a lot of rains this NEM for TN and also Chennai.
your comments pl..
We almost got 55% nem days left, so be positive, nem can be suddenly very active out of no where
Pamban 10,rameswaram 7 ramnad 6cm
The normal rainfall in 1970 is still the same in 2014.But water demand has increased expontly in 2014 from 1970…As a result even if we have a normal rainfal , our water reservoirs are less half their capacity…Now can we increase the rainfall, no not in our hands …can we reduce the popultn grwth rate, Yes and thereby water demands… Instead of complaining abt nature, try not to screw it…Message for the day: SAVE WATER
And plant MORE TREES.
Large quantum of rain water runs back to the sea and hence the solution is to create more rain harvesting structures.
Pefect…demand is the problem not rain
well said. with industries comes in only particular part of the state, whether it is i.t, or others,especially around chennai and neighbor districts, the population has dwindled in southern parts of t.n from 2000, increased in chennai and nearby, which in turn cause increase in demand. with the quantum rain not in our hand, we should make every effort to save the water, which is becoming precious day by day.
Well said. Population is the major problem.
SAVE WATER. Is this double meaning
So much in store towards EAST. But for whom? What will be the share Chennai? A 10cm will do for the weekend.
yep.. If it starts to move in NW direction, it will be suicide mission for storm :/. So i guess it starts to move in WSW direction…
Strong winds are from NE to SW….
Is there any chance to change the direction of wind?!
Chances are very Less (NIL Chances)
We need to enjoy our Rains in TN…
yes. of course. Does this kind of Wind movement benefit both STN and NTN?
http://www.monsoondata.org/wx2/prec.html
Nothing good for chennai.,, but awesome for delta and south tn
India to launch American buoy in Bay of Bengal to study weather pattern
———–
Scientists are set to sail from Chennai on November 24 towards a point in the Bay of Bengal, 300 km east of Kolkata, which receives the highest rainfall in the Indian Ocean. They will carry a state-of-the-art buoy which can measure salinity, temperature, currents, and nitrates and dissolved oxygen content at different levels in the sea up to a depth of 2 km.
——————–
http://www.thehindu.com/sci-tech/india-to-launch-american-buoy-in-the-bay-of-bengal-to-study-weather-pattern/article6614293.ece?homepage=true
Anyway happy tat tn is gng experiance heavy rains
It is clear and hot now with TS clouds developing. Thunderstorms may occur later today.
I think we will have a system either d.dd.wml,lp by 8th to 10th of dec, although it,s long shot things look promisiming..hope it happens..
Its a lovely experience to walk against the wind in the service roads of marina beach, past 2 days the wind speed has increased substantially one of my friend who works in chennai harbour said that waves have become rough and there is a sudden swell of waves yesterday which deposited sand with sea water this kind of phenomenon often happens if some systems which approaches chennai in the past i have seen sand that has been deposited during severe systems in to the service road
so some thing is brewing to surprise us soon..
yes often this kind of winds often leads to rain or some severe systems as per my experience
hope your prediction comes true…
missed the walk past few days
its a nice experience to walk against the wind and in the return walk i felt the wind pushing me. i thought now a days you are finishing your run earlier
sat image update
sat image update cloud temp
How it will be nice this kind of clouds comes over chennai from the sea and burst over cnennai
THE TROUGH OF LOW AT MSL OVER SOUTH ANDMAN SEA AND ADJOINING
BAY OF BENGAL PERSISTS
source.imd
Thats lot of cloud mass in south bay…many times the system’s source starts from this place and we have got rains in the past…lets be positive…10-15 cms again in the spell on weekend would be a real jackpot…
is the bay going to be active in Decemeber?
All 50 US States Feeling Freezing Temperatures
even in dry places like Los Angeles,california ? It’s always pleasant over there
present circulation will intensifie??
Sat image update
Entire srilanka covered with clouds
Straight line!.. Looks like fench is installed between NTN and STN!
yes absolutely
sat image update Asia sector
seems like some circulation developing in south east bay of bengal
After waiting for this much long, we bloggers are not going to settle for Low, D or DD. We need a full fledged cyclone, nothing more or nothing less. Hope fully by the end of this month. : )
Us climate centre predicts a strong system may develop over se bay around 26 nov and move wnw towards ntn and adj sap coast…. it may weaken whilw nearing the coast….
LINK PLEASE
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/archdat/indian/southern/vis/LATEST.jpg s.bay circulation is becoming little significant as vorticity and lower level convergence has increased with more thunderstorm development .
but 500mb vorticity does not look supportive.
yes.. but it hasnt developed much to see circulation at mid level.lets wait and see
cfs consistently showing back to back systems hitting TN in December.
yeah..tats really positive news.. cfs was seen with good records in long range forecasting. even they wer close to reality wrt november scenario
It will improve in the coming days I guess
We are having very pleasant cloudy weather in the deep south. Occasionally drizzles.
South bay looks deadly.. We should be in for some rains by tomm night. I feel this sudden spurt in convection could probably travel NW and touch Chennai latitude, as we are in peak NEM season. Not lost hope.
oct 1 to oct 19 – 320mm
nov1 to nov19- 183 mm
Nov 19 – May 31 – 40 mm
Noooo…. I want 600mm
He is our typical captain, so chat him with alert alert alert with cautiously
hey jeet……why adyar, mylapore receiving more rains than nunga
Nunga is little inward than pro coastal places like adyar, mylapore, tvt, triplicane
Hi
Bye bye iam going because all are thinking negative for chennai NEM rains
dont worry da
Ameen, its all in the game, be cool
Ok sorry
We will have active nem from the last week of nov onwards till DEC 20th, only after that we can call it failure, but at a rare case we may have 100mm+ in jan also
For chennai also.?
Of course, purely chennai based one
where can he go? He needs to come back here only
He is a small kid, he can’t tolerate mind games, with puzzles I think
you need to be here to connect to your ODM ameen!!
instead of tracking clouds, this one is very intersting. can anybody find a link
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home/science/Has-Russia-launched-a-secret-satellite-killer-into-orbit/articleshow/45202402.cms
space war
Imd chennai comes out with a forecast heavy rains over coastal tamil nadu for 2 days starting from tomorrow.
ss
does that include Chennai?
Yes kea sir modrate to rather heavy rains would occur at many places over chennai kanchepuram etc from tomorrow!
Yes. they covered chennai also under moderate-heavy rains category. but under specific city forecast nothing, as usual.
ss
DAY 11 (19th November): Light to moderate rain would occur at a few places overRamanathapuram, Tirunelveli, Thoothukudi and Kanyakumari districts of South Coastal Tamil Nadu and isolated light to moderate rain may occur over the remaining districts of rest Tamil Nadu and Puducherry.
DAY 2 (20th November): Moderate to rather heavy rain would occur at many places over Ramanathapuram, Tirunelveli,Thoothukudi, Kanyakumari, Chennai, Kancheepuram, Tiruvallur, Cuddalore, Villupuram, Thanjavur, Tiruvarur, Nagapattinam, Pudukottai districts of Coastal Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and isolated light to moderate rain may occur over the remaining districts of interior Tamil Nadu.
DAY 3 (21st November): Moderate to rather heavy rain would occur at many places over Ramanathapuram, Tirunelveli,Thoothukudi, Kanyakumari, Chennai, Kancheepuram, Tiruvallur, Cuddalore, Villupuram, Thanjavur, Tiruvarur, Nagapattinam, Pudukottai districts of Coastal Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and isolated light to moderate rain may occur over the remaining districts of interior Tamil Nadu.
source imd chennai
OUTLOOK FOR SUBSEQUENT THREE DAYS: Increase in rainfall over interior Tamil Nadu and No significant change for coastal Tamil Nadu.
so minimum 5 days of rainfall for Chennai?
may be two days or three, interiors may get 5 days
from nothing to something is always welcome
but imd report says 5. Rain on day 2 and day 3 and next 3 days no significant change. So 5 days rain
may be, but this is initial stage, any thing can happen, you know very well
I am still sticking to my prediciton
great, we all want this from you, as a captain,
what is your prediction kea?
very less chance of rain for next few days
okay ! what do you think above cfs prediction of two back to systems to TN in december?
too early to even look at December
no, i thought it about your nem total rain prediction
600 vs 602. Can anyone come close?
won’t you be satisfied with more rain fall than your prediction?
I would definitely be happy. But what if we don’t get any more rains, which is definitely a possibility?
that also expected, bad luck for chennai, what more to say?
may be childish, but i see hectic activity of ants in my house for the past two days,which gives some hope.
???
Probably IMD (Chennai and Delhi) were under high pressure to ignore the prevalent High pressure to forecast rains.
only time will tell what made IMD put up that forecast
INTERIOR TAMILNADU FOR SWM
COASTAL TAMILNADU FOR NEM
THIS CAN NEVER CHANGE BUT SEE THE RAINFALL FIGURE
JUNE TO SEP 31
CHENNAI (COASTAL)- 650 MM
TIRUVANNAMALAI (INT )- 230 MM??
HOW?
IMD forecasts heavy rains for chennai from 20th
that’s tomorrow
next oct 20th
Can u share the link. ..i don’t think it’ll happen though
Any thing may happen at any time!
sir please see below,which i posted from imd chennai website
Thanks
The present circulation is going to be a big surprise for us..its not based on models..its my view..
To be fair, yesterday’s rains were not forecasted by models. So IMD is looking at another such scenario?
bloggers had predicted rains for Central and south TN
IMD DELHI ISSUSES HEAVY RAIN FOR STN BUT IMD CHENNAI ISSUES HEAVY RAIN FOR ENTIRE COASTAL TN
WHICH ONE WE CAN BELIEVE GUYS
You take the decision based on what we see tomorrow. There is also a third option of not believing both
frankly speaking chances for Chennai are very very low
out look for 22/11 to 26.11
Rain/ thundershowers would occur at isolated places over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam & Meghalaya and rest south peninsular India.
source : imd delhi mid day report
BOB getting super active thanks to circulation
Thanks to mjo
Hi
hi
Imd is forecasting heavy rains from tomorrow for chennai ? Will this forecast become true for chennai?
Only NATURE will answer you! According to current scenario, chances are very slim..
COASTAL DIST OF TN
NTN- TIRUVALLUR,KANCHIPURAM,CHENNAI,CUDDALORE
CTN- DELTA
STN- RAMANAD,THUTHOKUDI,KANYAKUMARI
Add Villupuram to NTN
villupuram coastal belt is only 22 km…..so it cant be consider as coastal
Will this storm break the fench which was installed by HPA!?
heavy Raining in ongole
Raining above and below chennai. But nothing for chennai. It is just becoming worse for chennai now
this is a surprise…just a passing Shower?
Pls take a photo and upload! 😀 Can’t believe it!
dark cloud forming in nellore
current chennai temp. 29.5 at 3.38pm……….is this possible in dry november
when is our next system or next heavy rainfall will occur?
Next year may be
dont joke..
IMD says from tomorrow onwards
for chennai also?
that’s what IMD says
probably in first week of dec with a possibility of a system
radar is clean
The current circulation looks like its developing as a WML..if it developes..chennai has great chance of rains..the main to watch is the ridge..if the ridge is not present over central TN right now..its a sure shot of intensifying to a depression..
chennai can get 15 mm in next two days it is sure
alert! pulse from a system that is going to form near philipines can enter into our BOB which can become cyclone ashoba around 1 week of dec
the clouding is now really more and it is even above 10 Deg Latitude… will that matter
yes
which one is most powerful
NILAM OR THANE
Thane..
DISADVANTAGES OF DECEMBER CYCLLONES
1) DEC CYCLONES WILL HAVE LESS PRECIPITATION
2) MOST OF THE RAIN WOULD FELL IT ON SEA ITSELF
3) IT WOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER LANDFALL.
Partly true.. however doesn’t happen most of the time. There are many cases where cyclones continued inland for a while even in December or cases of cyclones producing heavy rains in December too.
December Cyclone Thane crossed near Cudalore and dumped rain all the way up to Thiruvanathapuram(12CM).
Alert, GFS Parallel still expects monstrous rains for TN coast including Chennai!
I guess its it will be ON and OFF rain!.. We can expect 10mm 😛
Going by GFS Parallel 100 mm is also possible hehe.. 😛 But better to go kea style for this one, don’t expect much
That’s why I guess it will be around 10mm! 😛 Even 1 mm is possible! 😀
so end in sight?
Happy ending according to GFS Parallel
Omg it looks deadly!!! 🙂
I dedicate this to kea and vela
PRECIPITATION OF NILAM IS 540 MM
PRECIPITATION OF THANE IS 180 MM
540 mm ? In the sea ?
540 mm in land only both ap and tn im saying
both nellore and ongole getting some showers due to convection. probably spread across chennai by late evening, as the heat can trigger some thunderstorms.
past three hours of rainfall
ongole- 12mm
nellore -5 mm
ponneri 4 mm
last 100 hours rainfall,
Chennai – ZERO
Lol..Lets not forgot one system can wipe the entire deficit..Still we have December.
November la rain illa.., December athuku mela
Understand, lets not forgot, our average NEM rain is 800-850mm and we have already got around 600mm, its all about balance 200mm which can we wiped by 3-4 days of good rains. Still we have end of December. Lets not press the panic button. Last year was worse we got only around 400-450mm for entire NEM
This is just normal NEM. Such long break is very common phenomenon in monsoon Period..NEM is not like SWM which is monotonous.. Nothing to worry about it..
Latest CIMSS update showing good convergence and divergence building up in BOB which is relevant from the clouds building. Hope the storms gain latitude and move towards NTN coast
guys ……just imagine
chennai ku 350km/hr speed la oru cyclone vantha eppudi irukum nu????
chennai irukhathu…
Onnum Errukathu!
oh
A super cyclone can generate 10 times as much energy as the Hiroshima Atomic Bomb. Now u can imagine what wil happen in that case.
any views on some showers noticed at ongole/nellore pockets today noon. strange. probably a weak upper level disturbance over bay of bengal.
ss
we got 33 mm rain from cyclone madi
im right?
FLASH NEWS!!! Cyclone to hit CTN!!! 😀
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2014111906/navgem_mslp_pcpn_ind.html
I guess its depression or WML!?
No its a Cyclone by looking its shape…
91B has displayed biggest and violent shape exhibited over entire BOB
CTN or GOM????
CTN
Are you sure?
Yes check it out
It looks for me as “L” is crossing at GOM.
No,better check it again
I checked it again, it looks between STN & NSL at GOM
yes. It looks like that only . Only intense Northern band is crossing central/North TN
GOM is below that…
Its better to stick with ECMWF. From past few months it is performing really well when compare to other models.
As usual Jupi back with good news..Blog will ignite once again..
Its better to stick with ECMWF. From past few months it is performing really well compare to other models.
Doubtful, but let’s see
NEM is unpredictable so let’s wait watch
Suddenly there are plenty of
ants in my home at Adam..
Searching for food n come
from nowhere..even in d
middle of the hall in first
floor..Any urgency on
their part smelling rain?
are ants good weather readers?
Look at my above post!
they will be highly erratic and come out of their nests in thousands. Now i have a partner, Seeing the ant model 🙂 is there any other animals or plants that can give us the clue that rains are coming soon?
This vorticity at 4N,85E could become a cyclone;Lower convergence and upper divergence are moderate persistently and VWS is between 5 to 10 knts.The probability also increased.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=vor&zoom=&time=
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/
oh.. In Which direction will it move?!
This is a million dollar question, which can not answered now even with billion dollar.
Conventional poleward movement will take it to GOM…but NEM does not follow conventions 🙂
Cyclone????
This NEM has degraded its name so profoundly that people are surprised if a cyclone is forecast in November!
A cyclone is possible.
Rami, any model forecast with fluid mechanics is with you!
99w and present one not displaying any proper innermost convergent/divergent lines. So cyclone is ruled out.91B displayed very hardly these lines, so at least 91B intensified to D/DD
Rami don’t play with fire!!! 😦
if the present conditions persist for another 24hrs, cyclone (JTWC not IMD) is possible.
inflow from south has highly increased but the sw quadrant is bit elongated tats the only worry seen as of now..
when we will start getting rains??>?>??
it is under development stage…
sat imagery..
super active…
wow
A Strong WML or DD is really what is required….which can span across 2-3 days ..even 15 cm totally we can happily take…
Towards SE of SL, we can see the consolidating system is startling to circulate and the initial movement is towards NW.
yes.. A mild HPA near Chennai latitude was vanished by yesterday storm but it appeared again! .. I think current system will beat it..
Helo frends tomorow konjamaavdhu rain varuma
hehe.. So far chances are very slim..Wait for 2 more days..
Pretty cool outside. HPA rules
It will be vanished soon
Yes, but I do not think its on the higher side, May be tomorrow we can see the change.
Seems ECMWF still maintains the Low in lower lat.
…..
Pa group will drag it towards us
ha ha
ha ha …. “Tug of war” ???
Kids in war
jeet what you do
Business
guys…..now where is that circulation located?