677 thoughts on “Rains could make a return on Friday

  1. It is only tuesday 2day – we have to wait patiently looking towards the sky for this headline to work – and we pray and hope it comes true. This monsoon breaks are giving us endless sleepless nights !!!!

      • One of our blogger had posted that we have got 62% of rain and it is just 50% of the season completed. Only at the end of the season we can conclude

  2. At one point v expected the str to dip down for the system to move west towards tn.. now it has dipped down more than wat v expected but unfortunately ther is no support for the system to build.. conditions r turning better as southern hemisphere system is moving away.Let’s see how the current circulation unfolds as tis circulation is likely revive the monsoon after a break. one thing to say regarding str, If str (sub tropical ridge)continues to be in such lower latitude our nem may end early n erratically as it pushes the equatorial trough down so the str has to be move up for the monsoon to get extended till late December. Tis is just a conditions not a panic button by anyways.. btw initial December forecast from cfs shows a wild December with active systems crashing tn..

  3. Good news to bloggers:
    light rain overnight.. Now Dark clouds rushing from NE and overcast.. It may b first sign for monsoon revival over tamilnadu.. Don wry guyz monsoon ll b back very soon

  4. Its a close game now.
    1.MJO is going to rev up the Indian Ocean between 27th Nov and 10th Dec
    2.IOD is slowly going down from a positive phase to neutral.This can also get into a negative phase by early Dec

    The above 2 parameters generally favour systems to get formed.
    But SOI is equally important to maintain the system strength.Currently its not looking Good.But if we can get SOI between -5 and 0,then we are in for an eventful first fortnight in Dec.

  5. expecting no rains till sat.with current scenario for chennai.but could see moderate to heavy rains from kayn to chidbrm and south interior tn,from today late night and slowly increasing till Friday or extended..

    • no chance of cloud mass come under our coast our coast up to cuddalore or pondy nothing for Chennai HPA dominates our coast

  6. Chennai has no chance of rain until hpa area move away..,, it’s 1016-1019 range hpA not good for coastal areas in peak monsoon period…. What is highest range hpa which ever recorded in chennai..??? Experts

  7. Tropical Pacific Ocean moves closer to El Niño

    The Pacific Ocean has shown some renewed signs of El Niño development in recent weeks. Above-average temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean have warmed further in the past fortnight, while the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has generally been in excess of El Niño thresholds for the past three months. Climate models suggest current conditions will either persist or strengthen. These factors mean the Bureau’s ENSO Tracker status has been upgraded from WATCH to ALERT, indicating at least a 70% chance of El Niño occurring.

    Not all indicators have shifted towards El Niño. Tropical cloudiness near the Date Line and trade wind strength are close to average, suggesting the atmosphere is still not firmly linked with the warmer ocean below. However, trade winds have weakened several times over the past few months and SOI values have remained generally negative, suggesting at least some atmospheric response to the underlying ocean conditions.

    International climate models expect the warm tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures to persist, with most models predicting values near or beyond El Niño thresholds for the next two to three months. Regardless of whether El Niño fully develops, warmer-than-average tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures, combined with cooler waters currently to the north of Australia, increase the chance of some El Niño-like impacts.

  8. Season’s first tropical cyclone develops over southwest Indian Ocean

    Tropical convection this past week has been below average over much of South-East Asia and slightly elevated over parts of the southwest Indian Ocean. Severe tropical storm Adjali, which developed near Diego Garcia in the southwest Indian Ocean, has become the first named storm for the season in the Indian Ocean, south of the equator. Tropical storm Adjali is predicted to move south then southwest, slightly intensifying over the coming day before weakening as it moves over cooler waters.

  9. An active Madden–Julian Oscillation

    This past week, a Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal strengthened over Africa before weakening. Hence, it is possible the recent MJO activity contributed to the development of tropical storm Adjali and the recent supressed conditions over tropical parts of South–East Asia and the western Pacific Ocean.

    Climate models indicate the MJO will move east over the Indian Ocean this week, however, there are a range of predictions of its likely strength. Some models suggest a clear signal, while others suggest the signal will be weak or indiscernible and unlikely to influence tropical weather. When the MJO is active over the Indian Ocean, it typically enhances convection over the Indian Ocean, while suppressing convection over tropical parts of South–East Asia, northern Australia and the western Pacific Ocean.

    If the MJO continues to move east and remains active, there is a chance it will enhance tropical convection in the Australian region from the end of November or start of December. However, outlooks beyond a fortnight should be treated with considerable caution, as there is significant uncertainty surrounding the predicted strength and speed of movement of this current MJO signal.

  10. Tropical Pacific Ocean moves closer towards El Niño

    The Pacific Ocean has shown some renewed signs of El Niño development. International climate models expect this situation to persist, with most models predicting values near El Niño thresholds for the next two to three months. The latest NINO3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly is +0.9 °C and the 30-day Southern Oscillation Index value to 16 November is −10.9.

    Regardless of whether or not El Niño fully develops, some El Niño-like impacts remain likely. For northern Australia, this means an increased likelihood of drier than usual conditions over the coming months, including an increased chance of the monsoon commencing later than usual.

  11. As per BOM.GOV.AU

    NINO 3.4 has crossed ELNINO thresholds of 0.8C, SST at NINO 3.4 is at 0.9C, previously it was around 0.7C, 0.2 degrees increased. SST in NINO 3.4 has increased 50% in the last 2 months.

    NINO 3.0 also increased from 0.9 to 1.0C
    NINO 4.0 increased from 0.9 to 1.1C

    IOD is at 0.23, reduced from previous week value of 0.59.
    SOI is -10.9.

    ENSO – Strongly Positive
    IOD- Positive Neutral
    SOI – Strongly Negative

    MJO now in Phase 2. Will increase the amplitude from tomorrow at 1.5, will enter Phase 3 by tomorrow or thursday.

    This is the condition very much favourable to NEM 2014, the completion of November will be excellent one.
    The last week of November will be filled with precipitation for sure.

  12. Massive rain seen in sat pic coastal south tn… Looks like low formed in gulf of mannar… South tn and delta in for complete treat

    • Period is changing… U can see last 3 -4 years … SWM is better than nem … Is that a global warming effect.., anyway SWM giving adequate rainfall…

      • Earlier period before 2000 it was nice to see rain for weekly presented not 20 cm 8 per day long day of rain 38 days October to December now a days 10 to 18 days

  13. Looks like STN/GOM/SL receiving good rains. Big convection developing at maritime continent. Hope this will travel towards NTN.

  14. 2nd half November rainfall past 5 years. Can 2014 get past 2009?
    2014 – 1.6 mm
    2013 – 153 mm
    2012 – 431 mm
    2011 – 259 mm
    2010 – 152 mm
    2009 – 8.6 mm

  15. In the South, weather watchers are pinning hopes on a Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave to trigger a wet spell mainly over Sri Lanka and parts of adjoining south-east Tamil Nadu.

    Several models, including the Global Forecast system, UK Met, Canadian, and the Japanese, depict the eastward propagation of the wave western hemisphere to the Indian Ocean.

    It travels in the upper levels of the atmosphere but reserves its best in terms of associated weather to the ground level – building clouds and dropping rain.

    The US Climate Prediction Centre says a weather system could get triggered over southeast Bay of Bengal and travel west-northwest towards India’s east coast.

    Others said it could head towards Sri Lanka and adjoining Tamil Nadu erupting in rainfall over the region through the week.

    source : business line

  16. Experts, a quick doubt regarding earthquakes , Tsunamis and it’s impact on the Cyclones formed in ocean. Will the Tsunami wave influence the direction of cyclones formed along their way?? does it get distorted or so??

    • I don’t think it influences cyclone direction… Earthquakes happening in shallow depth of the sea… It don’t have mere contacts with cyclone directions

    • The heat given out from Earthquake will heat the ocean which in turn may raise SST and give more THCP. This may act as additional trigger for Cyclone. However for this it has to be a shallow earthquake and distributed over an area with less intensity rather deep intense one!

  17. Latest GFS is not so encouraging for Chennai. With South chennai receiving
    just litle rain. hope that changes. But C TN and S TN are goin for a treat.
    The HPA seems to weaken a bit as per WINDS @ 5:00. The dry air situationis improved, however we fiind some pockets of dry in the bay which may prove detrimental for chennai rain.
    Beyond 25th , things seems to favour chennai a bit. Lets see how nature unwinds on 21st and thereafter.things should get clear by tommorow.

  18. 26th is one week away. So many things can happen. Instead of low over N.SL, it could be a cyclone over N.TN. How many time models stuck to a same forecast for a week?

  19. Alert, Alert Alert …

    A strong circulation at 850HPA is forming over extreme south bay and adjoining NE indian ocean on 22nd and moving in NW direction towards TN, and crossing Nagai coast on 25th.

    Heavy Rain in TN will begin from 23rd. Till then light rain possible from 20th to 23rd over north TN.

  20. Not sure if this has been shared, sharing it for the benefit of fellow bloggers.

    The final phase of installing the state-of-the-art radar at karikal, which will help in enhanced weather forecasting, is nearing completion. The process would be completed by December. The radar will be able to predict weather in 150 km, almost accurately, benefiting Cuddalore, Nagapattinam, Tiruvarur, Thanjavur and Pudukottai, among other districts.

    Source: The Hindu


  21. The current mass clouds over South TN will weaken by tomorrow..the next wave is behind that and it gather the clouds from south bay & reaches Central TN by friday..we may get isolated showers from friday and the one near gulf..will reach us by 26th..( this one to be watched..it may intensify to a dep)..

  22. Guys,

    Basic info on the models.

    This time during NEM 2014 all models are getting confused, nothing is promising, so do not get carried away by poor forecasts.
    NEM is unpredictable.

    I am sure that we will have good end to November.

    Lower level winds will become stronger 2-3 days before rainfall, we are getting good breeze since yesterday, we must have moderate rains atleast from 20th.


    DD OCT 2005- 70 DEAD ( 50 IN CHENNAI ITSELF)
    DEP NOV 2005- 40 DEAD

  24. from no where clouds accumulated in C and S TN…no body expected this…think it is raning quite a bit in STN…esp coast

  25. 2014 is 3rd straight bad November
    2014 – 183 mm (deficit of 199 mm)
    2013 – 193 mm (deficit of 189 mm)
    2012 – 38 mm (deficit of 345 mm)
    Still 10 days left anything can happen

  26. Decent rains in TN. Rainfall in mm
    Orathanadu – 53
    Sembanarkoil – 26
    Kudavasal – 23
    Thirumarugal – 22
    Muthupettai – 21.5
    Nannilam – 16.5

  27. November rains failing regularly

    8 times out of the last 14 years, NEM rains has failed in November. Will 2014 be the 9th time since 2000?

    Normal rains for November – 382 mm
    achieved till date – 183 mm

    Still another 200 mm needed in around 10-11 days. We need a good strong system to wipe of the deficit.

    Last 2 years rainfall November rainfall are as follows.
    2013 – 194 mm
    2012 – 38 mm

    • Is the 38 mm in 2012 for the entire month of november?

      Cos sometime back u said the following.

      2nd half November rainfall past 5 years. Can 2014 get past 2009?
      2014 – 1.6 mm
      2013 – 153 mm
      2012 – 431 mm
      2011 – 259 mm
      2010 – 152 mm
      2009 – 8.6 mm

      It says in 2012 nov second half we got 431 mm..

      • Right now DD or D.. Is a question…. As per the various forrecast.. Seems not possible. However conditions seems to favourable in BAY. Will have to pray for the models to go wrong..

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