Crucial week ahead

keaweather 2014, KEA Blog, NEM-2014

Even though this week is expected to be mostly dry, this week is crucial to follow the upcoming system which is expected around 20th. In a few days time we will know our chances from this system. Chennai still has 30% below the normal NEM quota.Untitled

656 thoughts on “Crucial week ahead”

  6. ECMWF expects a WMl/ weak depression to crash into N SL by November 26th. This co incides with 2005 November depression in terms of date, intensity, and landfall. We do know it is not going to be the same, but can it replicate something similar ??

    Reply

  8. Good Morning Friends – couple of days back PJ posted with a map showing dry spots in and around Chennai in which he has mentioned about Trivottiyur as one of the areas. Read Today’s Hindu news -“In a recent survey, the Rain Centre observed that rainwater harvesting is still not popular in locations like Tiruvottiyur, Triplicane and areas where houses share a compound wall. More awareness has to be created among residents of added areas.”

    http://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/tp-national/tp-tamilnadu/gauging-groundwater-potential-from-wells/article6606199.ece

    Reply

    • No. At least as much as I know all the houses around Parthasarathy Swamy Temple have done the Rain Water Harvesting when it was made mandatory.

      Reply

  16. Southern Hemisphere – Indian Ocean

    162100Z POSITION NEAR 9.1S 66.9E.
    TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ADJALI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 361 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDS HAVE WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO A MORE DEFINED, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.

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  20. Why to wait till end of this week for NEM-rains? Already Elnino conditions existed as most us wanted. Why we need to wait till end of this week for NEM-rains?

    That much long gap when Elnino conditions already existed for NEM-revival?

    Reply

    • Entire SWM season we chanted for Elnino. Already Elnino conditions existed (ONI index >0.5, SOI below -8 and IOD around +0.5). Still we need to wait for longer time for NEM-rains?

      Most of us thinking Elnino would favor NEM-rains. Is it true?

      Reply

      • why always after 15 november sytem below 12 degree rains for delta and south tamilnadu mostly to srilanka , chennai will left high dry ,forecast also shows heavy rain for nagapattinam district from weekend

      • Jupi, Elnino favors NEM means, there should not be long breaks like this. NEM-rains should be continuous like 2005.

      • NEM is surely not SWM to have continues rains..Ive said this before here many a times..Even a city like Bombay which gets an average of around 2000mm from June till September has breaks in between stretching up to 5 or 6 days and sometimes even two weeks which ive observed..(breaks in the sense real break from heavy spells and not talking about passing showers rains)..Be it whatever the conditon, EL nino, La nina, etc etc….Historically NEM always had and will have breaks in between and always four or five spells of decent rains makes up the average of 850 mm which we get ..How can 2005 be compared as everyone knows that was one extraordinary year which does not happen regularly..

  24. During the SW monsoons in Kerala, costal Kar and Maha regions, I hear nonstop rains, very few dry days in between.

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  25. We need continous steady rains to revive groundwatr and help storage of water… one day of rain and then 5 or 6 dry days will not help…asking for cont rains durng the wettest month is askin for too mch?
    Where is the ‘adai mazhai’ ?

    Reply

  30. thought it was very humid yesterday..wish it remains like that remaining days in nov and dec…already a bit worries about the next spell…BTW it is very windy today any indications?

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  33. Light rain in early morning now bit overcast with heavy easterly winds..Ramnad town at its best rainfall statistics from October, after 2 poor nem years..

    if it starts to rain continuously from next week as lik prediction of all experts here, then it will be massive year for us.. It will partially solve water crisis over interior arid region of the district..

    Reply

  35. Some positive news guys got it from magicseaweed.com..thu/fri/sat think we might get moderate showers…
    any thoughts highly appreciated…just sending a positive vibe today morning

    Reply

  39. Hi bloggers

    Suddenly a lot of pessimism seems to have descended.
    I am a novice compared to many of you though I have some fundamental sense about prediction of rainfall.
    I only hope that the model predictions go wrong and nature as always gets ahead.
    Just curious to know, the humidity has been quite high yesterday and today around 85%..
    Does it indicate high moisture content in the atmosphere and a possibility of thunder storms?
    I am sure we have had many cyclones in Dec in the past. Why then this negativity
    Pl note, I do not have the kind of technical knowledge you all have.

    Reply

  40. Interesting point

    30 days over since NEM onset. If i take the NEM period is normally 2
    months then we have crossed 50% days of NEM.

    TN average normal rainfall during NEM is 440 MM, so far TN received 320
    MM, means 72% of total rainfall.

    TN has received 72% of total rainfall in just 50% (30 days) NEM days
    crossed by.

    Chennai nunga received 602 MM, average rainfall is 940 MM.
    Chennai nunga received 64% of season rainfall in 30 days time.

    Still we are on the positive side of NEM 2014, we should not get frustrated.

    Reply

    • i agree with you in nandambakkam so far 74 cm from October 1 to November 17 but now forecast say rain will start Wednesday for south coastal tamilnadu and deltas region up to pondicherry why marakonnam to nellore areas not getting rains after November mid last 3 yrs not good N.E.M. IN EARLIER YEAR WE GOT MASSIVE RAINS 4 TO 6 DAY continuous rain 6 TOM 10 CUMS PER DAY,any chance of heavy rains for Chennai in coming days its only drizzle

      Reply

      • I too agree with you, these days the rainy days are lesser and rain qty is more, also coastal areas are much benefitted then interiors. These are the pattern nowadays, this trend will continue in the coming year also.

        Regarding south ap, they may not get much from easterlies or a low forming in sw bay, they get rains only when a system near or crossed the south ap coast, otherwise it is very tough situation for them.

        I feel that south ap has chance during Nov month end or first week of december, since a system is going to form in bay of bengal, we have to see in which direction it moves.

      • Many a years the NEM gets extented to last week of Dec.
        the devasting cyclone that hit dhanush koti was on 23rd Dec and Cyclone Thane on the very last day of the year 31st DEC.
        We hope for the best.

  43. Latest ECMWF forecast is not so encouraging, as it marks the position of “L” near the SE coast of Sri Lanka , and during the further days, it takes the centre position into the southern Comorin sea, far for the effects to be felt for N.TN and C.TN ……

    Reply

  44. a low pressure has formed over south andaman sea. looks like developing in to a strong system with in a day and moves towards tamil nadu coast, might bring one of the heaviest wet spells through out coastal tamil nadu from thursday.
    ss

    Reply

  46. GFS model charts indicate UACC over Srilankan area from 20th onwards. Coupled with Anticyclone over central Bay chances are bright for precipitation over Tamil Nadu from 20th.

    Reply

  47. Jupi, Elnino favors NEM means, there should not be long breaks like this. NEM-rains should be continuous like 2005.-Comment by RSR…

    RSR-NEM is surely not SWM to have continues rains..Ive said this before here many a times..Even a city like Bombay which gets an average of around 2000mm from June till September has breaks in between stretching up to 5 or 6 days and sometimes even two weeks which ive observed as a resident there for seventeen years…(breaks in the sense real break from heavy spells and not talking about passing showers rains)..Be it whatever the conditon, EL nino, La nina, etc etc….Historically NEM always had and will have breaks in between and always four or five spells of decent rains makes up the average of 850 mm which we get ..How can 2005 be compared as everyone knows that was one extraordinary year which does not happen regularly..

    Reply

  48. IMD in their mid day report states a low pressure forms over south andaman sea. going by the heat trend we observe at chennai in the last 2 days, there are plenty of chances of long good wet spell soon..
    ss

    Reply

  50. trougth would develo as low presure area soon, as SST is so much favourable and wind pattern also favours. this might as well devleop in to a full pldged cyclone after thursday moving close to north tamil nadu/south andhra coast.

    Reply

  51. Wyoming Super computing !!!! , take a deeper breath !!!!

    ….this data network is beyond Human imagination, weather requires such higher technology and methods to understand it ……

    Reply

  52. Strong High Pressure ruling over Chennai and Indian land mass in general. So strong that systems are just skidding or bypassing the landmass. The BBC rainfall maps clearly illustrate this. Hmmm.

    Reply

      • It is required as a counter component from the opposite direction to enhance the curvature of the circulation , and along side bringing in more warmer equatorial moisture and also to enhance evaporation and moisture convergence …..

  57. NEM rains and SWM just can’t be compared by any means..There are several pointers to it technically , but i am trying to bring it our bloggers notice as to how well a city like Bombay or in other words Mumbaikars prepare for the annual monsoon magic there..This observation i am trying to present is purely on the basis of me experiencing SWM there for quite some time…Bombay city by and large sees onset of SWM between June 6 till 10 every year..Of course there is always an exception of plus or minus 5 days to it..Its more of plus 5 days than actually minus..One has to experience what all Mumbaikars do as their monsoon preparedness ..The initial years of me witnessing SWM there were totally a new experience for me so to say or for that matter to any new comer to the city..By June 1st week, the murmurs will start among the general public as to when the first real showers would take place , be it any place, a chai ka dhukaan (Tea Joint), railway station, suburban train discussion between commuters..The first striking thing i noticed was the way 97% of the general public (actual residents and not tourists) changing over to rubber sandals and discarding leather chappals or leather shoes by June 1st week even if the rains don’t actually start. Right from a CEO of a big multi National company to peon of any Govt concern will adopt this change over from leather to rubber sandals or shoes…The next thing you would notice is the way each and every Bi cycle (though there are not many of them) Motorbikes cars and other modes of transport go for anti rust coating done for their vehicles..This is done with out fail each and every monsoon..Bombay hardly has any independent Bungalows except for some posh areas like Bandra Band stand, or Seven Bunglows areas and few pockets of Khar..80 to 85 % of the cities is full of flats structure and large chunk of sky scrappers..You would notice all the balcony areas covered by Plastic sheets to safe guard against moisture entering the house and denying the cloths to dry. Rain coats or umbrella are surely carried by majority of the citizens even if they see a partly cloud day or a rare clear sky..For the simple reason, even during breaks in monsoon you tend to get a passing shower always..Not so affordable public would at least carry a plastic cover to safe guard against downpour from nowhere..These are some of the examples of how the general public have got used the monsoon preparedness or in other words how well they prepare for the monsoon season ahead..The reason is very simple here..The monsoon to a large extent is not erratic,mostly keeps its date and the quantum does not vary to a great extent..Even a major tyre company has always come up with a unique brand promotional strategy –MRF rain day is a very popular among the people of this wonderful city..Every year the tyre company forecasts or predicts a rain day(onset of SWM in the city) without fail for the last 30 years or so.

    http://www.mrftyres.com/rainday/about-us

    We can never even think of following the routines which a city like Bombay follows religiously every year just before the onset of monsoon as our NEM rains are totally un predictable and even the monsoon itself is not sure of anything..

    Reply

  58. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts estimates that India is likely to experience a warm winter this year. Rajasthan, Punjab, Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh in North-West India and interior Tamil Nadu and Kerala could be sole exceptions where normal winter might prevail.

    But International Research Institute for Climate and Society at Columbia University is of the view that even South India could witness a warm winter this year.

    source – business line

    Reply

  59. 2.30 PM satellite picture indicate a developing low pressure system over south east bay of bengal – south west of portblair and east of srilanka. to be watched.
    ss

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  61. please see the daundee satellite images at 2.30 PM which gets updated once in 3hours. for that you need to have a permission for access

    Reply

  63. Amazing write-up of Novak nole! We Chennaiites are definitely envious looking at Mumbai nd d ever dependable monsoon! But NEM also gives us great experiences, coz its the monsoon of surprises, anything can happen at anytime from any kind if situation! NEM is Chennai nd Tamilnadu’s own!! Its unique nd we love it the way it is!!

    Reply

    • Arjun, Thanks..Point to note..Though the quantum of rains can never be compared between these two major metros, i for one would any day enjoy our NEM more than the rains there for some certain resons..One, there is always a suspense about our onset dates,,quantum of rains, breaks between two spells and more importantly, NEM is almost system oriented rains which always throws us a surprise and keeps us on tenterhooks , and other things like severe thunder and lightning which is almost absent there except when SWM sets in and calls it a day…SWM is more monotonous for it simply pours and you still feel the heat cos it happens during the late summer months unlike NEM where even a small shower brings in cool and chill breeze and strong winds..
      I too love it the way it is. (NEM) You said it right..

      Reply

    • STN likely to benefit . NTN may have light drizzles / mild rain occasionally. This LPA doesn’t have a potential to intensify with the dry air around the coast.

      Reply

  65. NEM 2014 RAINFALL ā€“ My observations ā€“ Rainfall recorded at my farm, located
    15Kms North to Udamalpet. [24 Hrs readings]
    August
    19.8.14=125mm
    20.8.14=4mm [negligible]
    23.8.14=37mm
    24.8.14=5mm[negligible]
    29.8.14=2mm [negligible]
    30.8.14=3mm [negligible]
    31.8.14=7mm [negligible] – August Total= 162mm

    September
    23.9.14=9mm [negligible]
    27.9.14=8mm [negligible]
    29.9.14=100mm
    30.9.14=25mm – September Total= 125mm

    October
    6.10.14=6mm [negligible]
    10.10.14=34mm
    18.10.14=25mm
    20.10.14=22mm
    21.10.14=63mm
    23.10.14=18mm
    24.10.14=25mm
    25.10.14=12mm
    26.10.14.=11mm
    27.10.14=17mm
    28.10.14=27mm – October Total = 254mm

    November
    11.11.14 = 26mm

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  66. GFS latest update – trough from first system extends till Chennai and 2nd system from same trough forms in SE BOB and moves WNW

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  67. one of the reason for low ground water level in chennai is constructing of cement concrete roads which prevents seepage of rain water in to ground. in 2011 when the level was 4 to 4.9m below, now it is 6m below.
    source – hindu

    Reply

    • The tax payers money is going down the (d)rains – some one here posted some days back – how the ground water gets
      recharged when there are light drizzles – off course not through concrete though.

      Reply

      • yes, the concrete roads can prevent water logging, but plays spoilsport when it comes to g.w recharging.

      • sorry, i does not prevent water logging, it runs down the water to some other street which is in lower level. To add insult to injury the authorities do not shift the service lines such as electricity, water, drainage to the margins, neither they are brought into any duct. so in case of complaint in service lines the concrete is broken, which cannot be restored easily as in the case of Tar roads

  68. Latest GFS expects 2nd system to head WNW for SL and weaken over there. Hippo bands expected for N SL and SE TN. Chennai could get some thunderstorms.

    Reply

  69. As everyone thinking easterly waves are typical style of Elnino-NEM season. That too in peak NEM-November month, we are seeing very dry-satellite picture. This is not normal.

    Reply

    • Rami this is very normal. Look at the easterly wave in S BOB. 2005 satellite images also signified such dry weather over India at some point of time, next system is building in BOB

      Reply

      • I don’ think it’s normal. November month produced 2 easterly systems, 91B & 99w. 91B is a waste system without giving 1mm rainfall anywhere TN. 2nd system 99W still not given wide range of heavy rains for TN (typical NEM style). After counting rainfall for 3 days, still hardly few places crossing 200 mm range. Good NEM years, this figure can be crossed in a single day that too wide range areas. Future systems also playing hide and seek game.

      • That is because 99W moved away fast. Previous NEM systems gave rains because they were slow moving

      • November is peak NEM month, but situation looks very different. Even Elnino conditions stayed with all the proper indexes. Still forecast looks uncertain, especially NTN.

  73. Easterlies are strengthening and this is reflected by increasing trend in soi and now the only thing we need is mjo. It should be in IO by 20th Nov.

    Reply

  76. I stayed 2 yrs at Pondicherry during Elnino yr (Lanina following) 1997-99. Experienced 1997 & 1998 NEM seasons. What a beautiful NEM yrs. OMG ..without a single tropical system at BOB, continuos easterly WML pounded entire TN. For this reason I love NEM rains too much.

    Reply

  77. From when easterlies are likely to strengthen in Chennai and Bring widespread rains in Chennai and surroundings?

    Reply

  78. Guest11k, looks Elnino Molokai version is not good for both SWM/NEM. Especially when SOI went below -8 range and staying long time there without traveling towards 0. Think 2009-NEM is better than 2014.

    Reply

  81. Guest11k, regular Elnino good for both SWM/NEM seasons. Is it really possible regular weak Elnino unlike regular strong Elnino in 1997? Do u remember in which yr regular weak Elnino occurrered in the past?

    Reply

    • i think 2009 was a regular weak el nino year and that’s why we got good rainfall in 2009 but this time CP is boiling which lead to weakening of easterlies.

      Reply

  84. Guest11k, overall Elnino (weak/strong) establishing mechanism must be completed before start of SWM/ NEM season. So that it won’t disturb the monsoon dynamics.

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  89. Kea, I am trying to activate the blog with some spicy contraversies (one with shiva-guest votes and today, Elnino-NEM concept). But after little activation, blog is going back to silent mode. I too tired and hopeless.

    Reply

    • The co-efficient quotient holds good for the blog – when it rains everyone is around – after the rains – there is
      evaporation loss – and the subsequent drying effect takes on with the bloggers .

      Reply

      • A system is a non-stop thriller till it dissipates. What with so many villians like Dry air, VWS, HP area in inappropriate place, another system to spoil it and added to this ridge line position etc, etc. Braving all these odds, when it comes closer, there no words to express our joy. And when it actually pours down torrential rains then the blog explodes. Though number of comment are less, the hits will be more.

  95. We should not be cowed down by models forecast. The treat for us is bigger and getting big. After 20th when easterlies become stronger and well settled, all those clouds in the east will be for us.

    Reply

  96. I’ve added few more routines which Mumbaikars religiously follow just before the onset of monsoon. Since I was in a hurry ,,could not add that info to my earlier post regarding monsoon preparedness by them.

    Reply

  97. S.TN is going to pounded by rain. For Chennai, dry air villain is waiting and hope wet easterlies will chase and kill this villain

    Reply

  98. The good news is dry air situation is improving near chennai. I guess the time system approaches us, we should be having good moisture around

    Reply

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