718 thoughts on “Good rains expected for Chennai from upcoming system

  1. This tank was borne dry before the start of the NEM season..now it is almost full…thanks to uniform storm water drains in nanganallur which eventually feeds the pond..

    • Heard Nanganallur is a acute water shortage area. How is the situation now. Some of my friends from that area used to say even after 200 or 300ft borewell there will not be any ground water? Is it so?

      • Actually flats and apartments incrased n they will construct in one or two grounds which is not fair….a ground can support max 3 4 houses comfortably. Another problem corpiration supply is coming up very shortly now till now we are heavily dependant on groundwater….basically squeezing.. so naturally areas with too many flats suffer…..

    • Fantastic Image..Still some level away for it to be full..Hope by December 31st its full to the brim and you post a another photograph..Was a a resident of Nanganallur, 5th main road from 1987 Jan till June 1988,

      • Hurdles:
        1.HPA just above Chennai
        2.SOI below -10.This will limit the strengthening of the system and we will end up like a WP99 like system

        Catalysts:
        1.MJO will be at its peak in BOB.

        Interesting times ahead!

  2. South TN expected rain by 19th and from 20th coastal areas can expect rain from the upcoming LPA..& its expected to continue for 3 days..

  3. & at same time a new LPA forms on 25th and its continue for 4 days..and a new LPA from andaman expected to turn as a cyclone on dec 1st ( but this s a long range forecast)..As for now wet days to start from 20th till month end with 2 LPA around TN coast..

  4. Good morning. Models are continuing the trend and are taking the trough more north with every update. Something interesting and big is going to form from the trough..

  5. Hi Friends. I am vishwa from Ambattur following this blog for two years. You guys are excellent. I am blogging for the first time

  6. GFS Parallel also pulled trough north and expected massive rains for TN coast including Chennai.. latest run is coming out now.

  7. Good morning all, finally moved to periyapalayam for good. All are welcome to our home. Please don’t forget to bring rains when you come

  8. I have one question to PJ Anna. What is the total Rainfall in Ambattur so far. As Pj Anna has Rainfall data with him, I think my question will be answered.

    • Vishwa, ambattur rainfall is not in public domain. Only certain days they report in public. So it cannot be summed up.

  9. The circulation near andhaman has moved further west and a LPA is expected to form over there. My only concern it little bit low in latitute. If it moves further up, chennai and coastal TN can expect very good rains.

  10. Omg.. Sel, check GFS charts. Massive STR building over Central and North BOB… it can’t get any better..

    If it intensifies then we are in for gold. Let’s hope it intensifies πŸ˜›

  11. ther is an area of convection in south adj s.east bay in very good condition with low shear and high sst.. if ther is any disturbance exactly below tis one in southern hemisphere, tis wud be rapidly developing.. unfortunately s.hemisphere disturbance is far off to aid tis development.. still tis looks good for some development .lets see

    • Sel there seems to be some trough adjacent to it in Southern hemisphere, models expecting it to consolidate into LPA, let’s see

      • equatorial westerlies r very weak wich generally enhance the southren part of circulation and more over system in s.hem is not much supporting tis one. it shld develop on its own

  12. Thank God..we are getting a week’s break between systems.
    The Top layer of most roads in Chennai have disappeared.Yday I had done a reasonable stretch of Chennai and it was like driving through the Safari Trails.As your vehicle motors through the road,you can see the duststorm emanating with the tyres raking up the gravel.Huge Potholes have also started showing up.

    Hope the Corporation does some temporary patch up now and resort to Honest Roadlaying from Jan 2015

    • We will get more 1 1/2 months are there surely my thinking is 3 cyclones in BOB 6 LPA in BOB 2 DD in BOB!

  13. Have GFS and ECMWF come to a consensus on a strong system for TN and Chennai with the starting of rains from the 20th. convection with Low sheer and high SST in East Bay exist if these conditions persist and a system falls below this level can it be benificial for TN and Chennai.

  14. NE MONSOON FIGURES FOR 1-10-2014 TO 12-11-2014

    SUBDIVISIONS TAMIL NADU AND PONDICHERRY

    STATION ACTUAL NORMAL %DEP

    NAGAPATTINAM 530.7 432.6- 23%

    KARAIKAL 495.4 521.9 -5%

    CHENNAI 468 438.5- 7%

    TIRUNELVELI 455.6 268.8- 69%

    PUDUCHERRY 434.5 446.8 -3%

    NILGIRIS 390.8 314.6- 24%

    TIRUVARUR 360.1 335 -7%

    CUDDALORE 355.9 359.3 -1%

    TOOTHUKUDI 355.1 249.3 -42%

    DINDIGUL 347.5 275.7 -26%

    ERODE 345 222.3 -55%

    RAMANATHAPURAM 329.1 283.9 -16%

    THENI 322.3 248.2 -30%

    TIRUPPUR 297.9 216.5 -38%

    DHARMAPURI 290.3 233.6 -24%

    SIVAGANGA 290.1 271.8 -7%

    TIRUVALLUR 272.5 337.9 -19%

    KANYAKUMARI 270.7 346.4 -22%

    COIMBATORE 267.1 226.6 -18%

    SALEM 266.5 251.4 -6%

    PERAMBALUR 263.3 264.7 -1%

    THANJAVUR 258.4 292.2 -12%

    MADURAI 257.2 298.3 -14%

    VILLUPURAM 245.2 278.8 -12%

    VIRUDHUNAGAR 243.6 274.3 -11%

    KANCHEEPURAM 237 365.8 -35%

    KRISHNAGIRI 217.2 216.8 -0%

    NAMAKKAL 203.5 209.7 -3%

    KARUR 201.3 206.8 -3%

    ARIYALUR 197.3 293.9 -33%

    PUDUKOTTAI 185.1 225.7 -18%

    TIRUCHIRAPALLI 164.2 242.9 -32%

    TIRUVANNAMALAI 133.1 278.3 -52%

    VELLORE 116.2 224.3 -48%

  15. Dry Air started to perform in between next systems.
    4 days of dry weather 3 days of wet weather this is what going on weekly once.
    Anyway its good for ground water and also dry weather in between is good for water to suck into ground.
    Next system waiting for us to give another flooded roads by 21st.
    Hoping to see 150mm+

  16. look at tat massive vortex in southern ocean ..just happened to see the forecast for the tiny islands tat falls on the path of tis vortex. wind forecast for Île de la Possession for tis week shows average winds of 50kmph.. winds ranging from 40 to 63kmph for entire week

  17. weather forecast .in says heavy rain for delta region from 18th to 25 and again 25 strong system from 26 th December,but rqin from upto pondy only ,no rain for chennai

      • Hi PJ sir!!! I have a question dataman that what was the highest annual rainfall ever recorded in Chennai which year? How did it get that much??

      • Boundary layer dynamics focused in regions under the eyewall , for a Mature Hurricane .
        Boundary layer analysis, gives a lot more estimate and prediction for intensity changes , that is bound to happen ….This model analysis focuses on the instantaneous rates of change that takes place , including rate of change of equivalent potential temp. that has an impact on the max. winds

      • Okay Thank you PJ. Sorry for repeating the question i just now saw your comment which you made earlier.

  18. The reason behind my 2yrs of criteria is first u posted in kea weather which didn’t need any login credentials after that u went for form, kea converse things which requires registeration for following the blog hence now joined

  19. Can anyone tell the driest place in Chennai basin and its annual rainfall. Clue we used to track TS formation there in SWM.

  20. Which is the direst place inside Chennai and its annual rainfall. Clue its close to sea and TS often misses this place in SWM.

  21. Seems no one will get correct answers if dataman ask questions.

    1.Thiruvottiyur is the driest place in Chennai. Its 35 years annual average is 938 mm

      • Ennore does not have rainfall for 30 years. The ennore AWS was setup only in 2010

        An automatic weather station of the India Meteorological Department was inaugurated at the Ennore Port on October 19, 2010.

        Officials of department said the weather station, installed at a cost of Rs.5 lakh, would help in gathering data about weather in north Chennai region. It would provide data pertaining to several parameters, including wind speed, temperature, rainfall and humidity. The data would be collected on an hourly basis and made available on http://www.imdaws.com, an official said. The department had recently installed an agromet weather station on the Madhavaram campus of Tamil Nadu Veterinary and Animal Sciences University. The additional weather stations would enable the department to provide accurate forecast for the Chennai region, the officials said.

  22. Drought situation grim here – A stretch from – Udamalpet to Triuppur, Triuppur to mulanar, mulanar to Palani, Palani to
    Udamalpet – the area in-between is becoming drought prone and venerable because substantially year after year the
    rainfall is decreasing and till now even w99 did not yield rains.

      • I kindly bring the reality here to your notice
        1. Drought situation is grim here – A stretch from – Udamalpet to Triuppur, Triuppur to mulanar, mulanar to Palani, Palani to Udamalpet – the area in-between is becoming drought prone and venerable because substantially year after year the rainfall is decreasing and till now and even after W99 did not yield results.
        2.My rain meter at the farm has recorded only 20mm from W99, and 2014 NEM results are that still to this point of time all the wells are dry and borewells up to 500 ft dry because there is not enough rains to get recharged and then how can it be construed as sufficient rainfall .
        3.The areas adjoining western ghats have got rains but specifically it is to be noted that – a stretch from – Udamalpet to Triuppur, that is north to udamalpet respectively – gudimangalam, palladam, sulur, Kundadam,
        pongalor, kangayam, vellakovil, and west from Palani towards udamalpet are still severely drought ridden.
        4.My observation for the past few years is that this area here is becoming drought prone and venerable because substantially year after year the rainfall is decreasing and the specific reasons are unknown, the
        peculiar factor is that the rain bearing clouds arrive, thunders and lightning’s follow, heavy rain begins with heavy droplets only for a few minutes and the rain stops, the climate is humid, and then oddly the climate immediately changes to chill and cold as that of a hill station and it prevails still the clouds dissolve without rains when all other areas receive heavy rain fall.

      • Iam referring the area westwards to Palani towards Udamalpet and it is specific to note that the near by to Palani, eastwards is Ottanchataram where still wells are dry. To sum up Nature is erratic and will this pattern prevail or spread out to other areas is the billion dollar question. Please take note that I have been closely observing this pattern for the past 5 years according to me the trend seems to be becoming predominating here in and around the areas mentioned by me in the above post.

      • Sir my rain meter at the farm has recorded 20mm and still to this point of time all wells are dry and borewells up to 500 ft dry not enough rains to get recharged and then how can it be construed as sufficient rainfall .

      • I’m just a small kid πŸ˜€ But looks like those were some isolated thunderstorms because I remember IMD Udamalpet recorded 6 cm+ in 24 hours.. However the next system might trigger some thundershowers there too

      • Sir, the areas adjoining western ghats have got rains but what I have metioned is A stretch from – Udamalpet to Triuppur, that is north to udamalpet respectively – gudimangalam, palladam, sulur, Kundadam, pongalor, kangayam, vellakovil, and west from Palani towards udamalpet are still severely drought ridden.

      • My observation for the past few years is that this area here is becoming drought prone and venerable because substantially year after year the rainfall is decreasing and the specific reasons are unknown, the peculiar factor is that the rain bearing clouds arrive, thunders and lightning’s follow, heavy rain begins with heavy droplets only for a few minutes and the rain stops, the climate is humid, and then oddly the climate immediately changes to chill and cold as that of a hill station and it prevails still the clouds dissolve without rains when all other areas receive heavy rain fall.

      • On 11.11.12. There was heavy rainfall southeast adjoining udmalpet but it was not widespread, 15kms north from udmalpet received only 20mm and further north up to palladam did not receive rain at all.

  23. Driest Place in Chennai – Vela Land (Thiruvottiyur) – 938 mm
    Direst Place in Chennai Basin – Sholingur – 842 mm

    Last Question before i vanish.. Easy one. Wettest Place in Chennai basin. Clue its the only place whose average comes close to 1600 mm.

  24. How about this idea? For the next big kea meet, hand over saplings to everyone who attends and request them to plant it near their house

  25. Jon, congrats Chembarabakkam is the wettest place in Chennai basin. its 35 average is 1591 mm. No other station comes anywhere close to it

  26. ECMWF expects a system to come close to TN on 26 th November. But Navygem expect the present system to form on 18th November.

  27. An update on Nov 3, 1966 cyclone FB post:
    Ramachandran Venkataraman:

    Those times we did not have 24 hour satellite picture and numerical weather forecasting was in initial experimental stages. we watched for odd ship’s observations. once a ship conveyed wind speed of 30 knots. we believed her though it was possible there might be observational error or even communication error. Immediately we declared a cyclone. once cyclone was announced ships avoided that area and we did not get any other observation and we were blind to the cyclone till it comes near the coast and some coastal observation indicated change of direction or speed of winds. It was a difficult forecasting. By that time it was perhaps too late. there were also many comic situations. Shall write now and then
    10 November at 10:38 Β·
    those days alert messages for cyclone were issued by landline telegram to district collectors and other officials (no Facebook or twitter or KEA then).we sent a message on a Wednesday that a cyclone would cross on Friday evening. the cyclone struck with some damage and we closed down the case and went home. by NEXT Tuesday we got a phone call from a usually social conscious citizen that the local AIR was broadcasting message that another cyclone could hit on Friday. we were wondering what it could be then it dawned on us that the telegram reached a week later .we had to make a frantic to our HQ to inform AIR there was not such cyclone at least on that Friday.

  28. IMD:
    Weather outlook from 19th Nov 2014 to 23rd Nov 2014:
    Rain/thundershowers would occur at many places over Andaman & Nicobar Islands and at a few places over extreme south peninsular India

  29. This contour photo is only for Kea blog dont publish anywhere else, See the
    wetspot around Chemba-Meena and Redhills-Anna nagar. See the dryspot
    in Vela-Land near Thriuvottiyur and semma dry spot in Sholingur.

  30. gajendran

    Korttur anicut is below that lake, its average is 1208 mm. Vishwa, Ambattur rainfall is not vailable.

  31. Raijin yes 26th is Long way to go 😦

    Thats why we have to monitor the 1st system which is going form around 18th and come close to TN on 21st November

      • KeaWeatherArchives

        Pradeep John |

        November 8, 2010 at 1:24 am

        Rainfall from 8.30 am to 11.30 pm

        Pondicherry – 106 mm

        Mailam (Tindivanam) – 100 mm

        Hosur – 54 mm

        Neyveli – 47 mm

        Chennai (Nungambakkam) – 44 mm

        Chennai (Meeambakkam) – 42 mm

        Ennore Port – 37 mm

        Madhavaram – 37 mm

        Chidambaram – 20 mm

        Karaikal – 7 mm

        Bangalore – 58 mm

        Tirumalla – 76 mm

        Kavali – 64 mm

        Nellore – 46 mm

        ISRO – 44 mm

        Bapatla – 18 mm

  32. PJ, did you had interest on rains from the beginning or it grew after you joined job? Though personal, just curious to know. Only few get the job which match with their interest.

  33. Early indications are that we will have a wet Dec 2014 atleast for the first fortnight.100-150mm assured.Will revert with details soon.

  34. Thoothukudi and Tirunelveli gets final rains from the LPA which merges with Arabian Sea trough, Tamil Nadu Rains ending 8.30 am on 15.11.2014
    ==========================================
    The trough in the lower level easterlies from Lakshadweep area to south Gujarat off the west coast now runs from southeast Arabian Sea to south Gujarat coast across eastcentral Arabian Sea.

    in mm (min 20 mm)

    Satankulam – 86
    Kottar – 76
    Ramnad Nicra – 73
    Nanguneri – 70
    Ramanathapuram – 68
    Kanyakumari – 65
    K.M.Koil – 55
    Ayikudi – 51
    Upper Kodayar – 51
    Papanasam – 43
    Nambiyaru – 42
    Radhapuram – 41
    Srimushnam – 39
    Jayamkondam – 38
    Paramathivelur – 35
    Kodimudiyaru – 35
    Thottiyam – 34
    Ketti – 34
    Palayamkottai – 32
    Madukkur – 30
    Pennagaram – 30
    Mylaudy – 29
    Mayanur – 28
    Komarapalayam – 27
    Alankulam – 26
    Coonoor PTO – 26
    Bhavani – 26
    Chidambaram – 25
    Nallur – 25
    Lalapet – 24
    Servalar – 24
    Pappireddipatti – 24
    Bhoothapandy – 23
    Thenkasi – 22
    Namakkal Nicra – 22
    Tiruchendur – 22
    Pillur – 22
    Anaikadangu – 21
    Kumbakonam – 21
    Namakkal – 21
    Lower Papanasam – 21
    Kollidam – 20
    Nannilam – 20
    Kothagiri – 20
    Vedaranyam – 20
    Pandavaiyar – 20
    Ulundurpet – 20
    Thirumanur – 20
    Lower Kodayar – 20
    Peulundrai – 20
    Manalar – 20
    Chettykulam – 20
    Chinnamanur – 20
    Ponnaniyar Dam – 20
    Gundar – 20
    Thunnakkadavu – 20

    For past data

    Kea Converse – http://forum.keaweather.org/viewforum.php?f=12

    TWM – https://www.facebook.com/tamilnaduweatherman

    Vagaries Rainman – http://tamilnaduweatherman.blogspot.in/p/tamil-nadu-daily-rainfall-report.html

  35. PJ
    I saw the interesting map of rainfall across chennai zones.Besant Nagar has for example been always receiving higher rains than the other areas.Guess your map has been determined based on official RGs?

      • No. They’re expecting strong circulation to develop in SE/SC bay around 22nd which will later into a system. As conditions are ideal for present circulation( low VWS, high sst) why ecmwf not expecting it to develop into a system.

      • I am expecting present circulation to develop into a system because it got good conditions( low VWS, high sst, mjo support after 19th). Its puzzling for me why world best model not expecting it to develop into a system.

      • normal equatorial westerlies wich would bind southern part of circulation is missing. the winds r bit weak around the southern side of the circulation.. current circulation may develop if the disturbance exactly south of it develops

      • i am expecting mjo to enter IO by 19th. It will provide equatorial westerlies support to the present circulation.

      • yes when the mjo arrives, equ westerlies gets enhanced..hope it arrives n turn around.. v can expect for mjo when the shear starts to increase abnormally across the equator,

      • seems bbc and ecmwf forecast looks similar..they r expecting one in arb sea but not a major one.. 99w lpa is still seen in s.east arb sea with circulation and also present disturbance may move into arb sea as weak one if it fails to develop in bay waters

  36. 3rd day of Rains in Maharashtra ending 8.30 am in 16.11.2014
    ==============================
    The trough in easterlies from southeast Arabian Sea to south Gujarat coast across eastcentral Arabian Sea is moving westwards and an upper air cyclonic circulation lies over Saurashtra & Kutch and neighbourhood and extends upto 1.5 km above mean sea level.

    in mm (min 25 mm)

    Mirajgaon – 59
    Pimpala – 58
    Shalgaon – 52
    Aurad – 48
    Bhalwani – 46
    Malwadi – 45
    Kolegaon – 44
    Shivne – 42
    Sangewadi – 40
    Makni – 40
    Pangari – 39
    Gondawale – 39
    Walki – 38
    Keshegaon – 38
    Vita – 37
    Uttur – 37
    Dattawad – 36
    Tarale – 35
    Chaas – 35
    Akluj – 35
    Mahalung – 35
    Rahuri – 34
    Kurduwadi – 33
    Natepute – 33
    Murud – 33
    Yelavi – 32
    Latur – 32
    Jewur – 30
    Khandvi – 29
    Sadashivnagar – 29
    Kharsundi – 29
    Khadakewad – 29
    Supa – 28
    Korti – 28
    Lawang – 28
    Jayshingpur – 28
    Nilanga – 28
    Lawul – 28
    Shidhanerli – 27
    Wadala – 25
    Belapur – 25
    Dahigaon – 25
    Ankalkhop – 25

  37. System will develop around 20th, conditions are not that worse as it was for 91b and 99w,this upcoming system will be a strong one than the previous 2

  38. ECMWF , gets about 300 million observations per day with which the analysis is done , and also serves as the input data

  39. Does anybody have a link with the latest ITCZ position tracker.
    I found one as below which tracks for africa during Oct 2014.

  40. nov – jan 2015 precip map for india according to APEC (our blogger karthik narayanan n jupi used to follow this model vry closely during earlier days)

  41. very gud news….from this blog…all are telling the rain would start again by this week…….
    has the low formed?

Please restrict Comments to Weather only

Please log in using one of these methods to post your comment:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s