Next wet spell is 5-6 days away

keaweather 2014, KEA Blog, NEM-2014

Next system is expected around 20th November and South TN is expected to get bulk of the rains. We need to monitor this system closely and see the intensity of the same. Meanwhile Nungambakkam is close to crossing 600 mm this NEM.

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842 thoughts on “Next wet spell is 5-6 days away”

  3. As per JTWC, the South Indian Ocean circulation has been downgraded as high VWS is forecast to hamper development.

    Reply

  8. No rain here at present.
    Newbie here. Nice to learn from you experts. Please tell the newbies some TECH info once in while.

    Reply

  15. @mugundhan
    it depends upon next system and area..last system gave 160mm in some areas in Chennai..there are lot of chances for next system to give 250mm in 2-3 days..

    Reply

      • this weather is Normal for January. But in November mid is too much.. normal for chicago in November ( High is late 40’s or early 50’s ) .But temp are already in 20’s during the day

      • I know, this is too cold for November.
        Highs would only be in the 50’s here in Tampa next week!!

      • very horrible. u can not avoid severe winter this yr too due to jet-stream sharp dip till mid-west.

        But E/NE USA will be spared from severe winter due to unfavorable jet-stream dip.

      • But i read that this winter wont be as sever as last year and there is less snow forecast too.. and they say winter wont last till April like it did last year.. there will be some periods of intense cold but wont be prolonged and will be back to normal is what they say

      • last 5 days its -15,-20 here in Calgary,canada..from sunday some respite the temp is increasing and max 0,min -5..within 2 weeks my mindset is like anything less than -8 is ultimate..

      • Ha ha my friend, there is no way escaping the harsh Canadian winter.

        Anything less than -10 C with wind makes it brutally cold.

      • true but folks here are saying Calgary is different from rest of Canada because of Chinook winds..from dec Chinook winds which are warm winds will blow 10 days in a month..one day it will be -20 and next day it will be +15 becoz of Chinook winds and people will go for jogging with shorts/T-shirts..very funny

    • OMG… under severe cold wave.

      Our country is far better than any other country in terms of very consistent climatological seasons.

      Reply

  25. LPA weakens and merges with trough in Arabian Sea but gives bounty to Andhra Pradesh, ending 8.30 am on 14.11.2014
    ================================
    The low pressure area over Gulf of Mannar and adjoining areas of south coastal Tamil Nadu and Sri Lanka has become less marked is now embedded in the trough in the easterlies from Lakshadweep area to south Gujarat off the west coast

    in mm (min 50 mm)

    Throvagunta – 176
    Mukthinutala Padu – 167
    Ongole – 154
    Maddipadu – 131
    Gundlakonda – 102
    Karedu – 100
    Zarugumilli – 97
    Thalluru – 93
    Chimakurthi – 84
    Zarugumilli – 80
    B Nidamanuru – 76
    Singarayakonda – 74
    Pasumarru – 73
    Marutla – 72
    Kandukur – 69
    Tanguturu – 69
    Pedda Nandipadu – 65
    Devarampadu – 63
    Manneti Kota – 61
    Sriharikota – 59
    Pakala – 57
    Bapatla – 57
    Kothapatnam – 56
    Reddigunta – 55
    Mundlamuru – 55
    Gudur – 54
    Ojili – 53
    Tada – 52
    Chinna Merangi – 51
    Tanguturu River – 50

    For past data

    Kea Converse – http://forum.keaweather.org/viewforum.php?f=11

    TWM – https://www.facebook.com/tamilnaduweatherman

    Vagaries Rainman – http://tamilnaduweatherman.blogspot.in/p/all-india-significant-rainfall-in-mm.html

    Reply

  29. Ptwc Tsunami Threat (Pacific): a tsunami is a series of waves and the time between waves can be five minutes to … http://j.mp/1zX4f2K

    Tsunami Information (Hawaii): based on all available data a destructive pacific-wide tsunami is not expected and… http://j.mp/1zX4smD

    7.3 earthquake, 150km NNW of Kota Ternate, Indonesia. Nov 15 10:31 at epicenter (13m ago, 83km Ternate, depth 10km). http://j.mp/1zX4BGL

    Ptwc Tsunami Threat (Pacific): a tsunami is a series of waves. the time between wave crests can vary from 5 minu… http://j.mp/1zX8hrX

    Revised (7.3 -> 7.1): 7.1 earthquake, 156km NW of Kota Ternate, Indonesia. Nov 15 10:31 at epicenter (52m ago, 9… http://j.mp/1zXbw2B

    5.9 earthquake, 60km S of Molibagu, Indonesia. Nov 15 11:07 at epicenter (19m ago, depth 35km). http://j.mp/1zXbVST

    4.8 earthquake, 148km NW of Kota Ternate, Indonesia. Nov 15 11:23 at epicenter (20m ago, depth 35km). http://j.mp/1zXeFzD

    Ptwc Tsunami Threat (Pacific): a tsunami is a series of waves. the time between wave crests can vary from 5 minu… http://j.mp/1tT7zUd

    4.7 earthquake, 138km ENE of Bitung, Indonesia. Nov 15 11:57 at epicenter (23m ago, 93km Ternate, depth 35km). http://j.mp/1tT7XlS

    5.0 earthquake, 141km NNW of Kota Ternate, Indonesia. Nov 15 12:06 at epicenter (21m ago, depth 35km). http://j.mp/1tT944Z

    Ptwc Final Tsunami Threat (Pacific): a tsunami threat from this earthquake. recommended actions —————-… http://j.mp/1tTaigA

    Reply

  39. Just to clarify..Indonesia is the largest archipelago in the world with a huge span between East and West.
    Most lethal earthquakes happen in Sumatra which also featured the notorious band aceh quake which caused the Tsunamis.

    This Malukku quake is in the eastern tip of the archipelago..nearly 1000km north of Australia.So this quake will not have any impact on India.

    Reply

  40. Hello guys… I m one of the followers of kea for more than 2 years.. Finally I’ve signed up to blog with the weather enthusiasts over here šŸ™‚

    Reply

  46. Good Morning guys….i didn’t visit this blog much in last 2 days…what was the issue? was it about live score messages getting shared here? or some thing else ?because i was scrolling down in other topic – but all comments wre deleted..couln’t understand

    Reply

  47. annai varu kum kaalai vanakam..ennaiku blog la enneya seidhi erruku..4-5 days kazichi mazhai peiya poogu thu….pramadam..

    Reply

  49. Thanks to the 980 hPa deep low north of Japan and 1034 hPa high ridging out of siberia resulted in intense pressure gradients which caused Typhoon strength winds in North West Japan on Friday(Nov 14th). Though the low is well north of japan its effect extends down to Aomori prefecture south of Hokkaido.

    As per report, In Hiroo Hokkaido 120kph winds were recorded Friday morning while in some areas in North west Hokkaido have recorded close to 50cm snowfall accumulation on Thursday(Nov 13th) and Friday(Nov 14th).

    Reply

  50. according to a study done by university of California, Berkeley’s climate scientist David Romps and his colleagues, 50% increase in lightning strikes across the world during this century as a result of warming temperatures. source t.o.i

    Reply

  51. Nilgiris, Villipuram and Cuddalore get very heavy rain as LPA weakens and merges with trough in Arabian Sea, Tamil Nadu Rainfall ending 8.30 am on 14.11.2014
    ============================================
    The low pressure area over Gulf of Mannar and adjoining areas of south coastal Tamil Nadu and Sri Lanka has become less marked is now embedded in the trough in the easterlies from Lakshadweep area to south Gujarat off the west coast

    in mm (min 40 mm)

    Vanamadevi – 220
    Vilupuram – 142
    Kothavacheri – 136
    Neyveli – 124
    K.M.Koil – 123
    Lalapet – 121
    Bhuvanagiri – 117
    Thiruvonam – 106
    Sethubavachatram – 103
    Sethiathope – 96
    Coonoor PTO – 96
    Ooty – 96
    Manalmedu – 96
    Avalanche – 95
    Thottiyam – 91
    Eachanviduthi – 86
    Coonoor – 84
    Parangipettai – 84
    Kothagiri – 82
    Pondicherry – 79
    Kunnandarkoil – 78
    Chidambaram – 77
    Panruti – 77
    Peravurani – 76
    Upper Kodayar – 75
    Adiramapattinam PTO – 75
    Kodavasal – 73
    Veeraganur – 73
    Cuddalore – 72
    Perungalur – 70
    Adirampatnam – 70
    Gumdipoondi – 70
    Vathalai Anaicut – 70
    Manjalar – 68
    Thaluthalai – 68
    Ulundurpet – 66
    Ketti – 65
    Kodanad – 65
    Sirkali – 64
    K bridge – 63
    Kundah – 63
    Karambakkudi – 62
    Ennore – 62
    Srimushnam – 62
    Uthagamandalam BG – 61
    Papanasam Dam – 60
    Pechiparai – 59
    Annamalai Nagar – 57
    Thiruparappu – 57
    Ponneri – 56
    Emerland – 55
    Virudachalam – 54
    Paluvidhi – 54
    Vanur – 53
    Porthimund – 53
    Andanallur – 52
    Musiri – 50
    Maduranthagam – 50
    Kuppandham – 50
    Krishnagiri – 49
    Gingee – 47
    Chittar I – 46
    Poonamallee – 45
    Korattur Anicut – 45
    Kinnikorai – 44
    Mayiladuthurai – 44
    Tirukoilur – 44
    Grand Anaicut – 44
    Pattukottai – 43
    Anaipalayam – 42
    Kulithalai – 42
    Devala – 42
    Keeranur – 42
    Annavasal – 41
    Thuvakudi – 41
    Mylam – 41
    Lower Anaicut – 41
    Red hills – 40
    Karumandurai – 40
    Pallipattu – 40
    Cholavaram – 40
    Arani – 40
    Gandarvakottai – 40
    Thamaraipakkam – 40
    Samayapuram – 40
    Gandaravakottai – 40

    For past data

    Kea Converse – http://forum.keaweather.org/viewforum.php?f=12

    TWM – https://www.facebook.com/tamilnaduweatherman

    Vagaries Rainman – http://tamilnaduweatherman.blogspot.in/p/tamil-nadu-daily-rainfall-report.html

    Reply

  54. experts please answer, i have a doubt when the forecast is done by i.m.d, they say heavy rain for north t.n coastal areas, but when come to chennai they say some other predictions. isn’t chennai also a coastal district?

    Reply

  55. Earthquakes and Tsunami: why some quakes underwater in oceans produce tsunamis and others dont?
    Answer: When two tectonic plates slide past horizontlly, there is not much displacement of water in Oceans and you wont have tsunamis, whereas vertical sliding/shift of plates can cause massive tsunamis…
    Fyi: indian tectonic plate is moving 2.5cms N-E every year…which can cause quakes in the future. Magnitude will not be big but again quakes are not predictable …

    Reply

  64. lets have some quiz…

    What is a hurricane?
    A: A large funnel that forms from the sky
    B: A lightning storm
    C: A storm that forms at sea and strikes land
    D: An ice blizzard with gusty winds

    Reply

  66. another..

    The eye of a storm happens at the center of a hurricane or tornado. What is it like inside the eye?
    A: stormy
    B: foggy
    C: calm
    D: ice cold

    Reply

  67. If you count seconds between when you hear thunder and when you see a lightning strike, what does it tell you?A: How close the storm is to you
    B: Where the lightning will strike next
    C: When your parents will come home
    D: None of the above

    Reply

  68. Just now read all the comments reg CI of yesterday. one of my comments
    y.day was CI is copy of ODM.Wind vela got it in one of his comments

    Reply

  75. Facts on Global Warming…… If all the ice in the Antarctic melted, the world’s oceans would rise by
    nearly 67m (220 feet), or the height of a 20-storey building….

    Reply

  76. Not even one minute is dry on Earth……Every minute of the day, around 900 million tonnes of rain falls on the Earth.

    Reply

  77. After the morning earthquake at Indonesia
    Revised (7.3 -> 7.1): 7.1 earthquake, 156km NW of Kota Ternate, Indonesia. Nov 15 10:31 at epicenter http://j.mp/1zXbw2B

    There are multiple quakes are reported in that region……
    5.9 earthquake, 60km S of Molibagu, Indonesia. Nov 15 11:07 at epicenter (depth 35km). http://j.mp/1zXbVST

    4.8 earthquake, 148km NW of Kota Ternate, Indonesia. Nov 15 11:23 at epicenter (depth 35km). http://j.mp/1zXeFzD

    4.7 earthquake, 138km ENE of Bitung, Indonesia. Nov 15 11:57 at epicenter (93km Ternate, depth 35km). http://j.mp/1tT7XlS

    5.0 earthquake, 141km NNW of Kota Ternate, Indonesia. Nov 15 12:06 at epicenter (depth 35km). http://j.mp/1tT944Z

    4.7 earthquake, 148km WNW of Tobelo, Indonesia. Nov 15 14:13 at epicenter (depth 35km). http://j.mp/1uvWUUK

    4.5 earthquake, 3km E of Whitefish, Montana. Nov 14 23:58 at epicenter (depth 8.9km). http://j.mp/119rBDg

    4.5 earthquake, 121km E of Bitung, Indonesia. Nov 15 16:11 at epicenter (depth 32km). http://j.mp/1vbkxUM

    4.5 earthquake, 7km SSE of Npongge, Indonesia. Nov 15 16:52 at epicenter (depth 149km). http://j.mp/1vblLPU

    Reply

  83. Since Deepak seemed to be quizzing, I’ll also ask you some questions. Don’t worry, google won’t give you answers.

    1)Which place got highest rainfall from cyclone Fanoos? Also mention how much
    2)Which is Nungambakkam’s wettest SWM day in history
    PJ cannot answer since he is dataman

    Reply

  85. I saw the post in kea weather on Facebook abt 5k likes. I would like to help in increasing the fame of kea by making A pined post of kea on my page. Can I?

    Reply

  86. Since 2000 Chennai always had more rains in NEM than Tuticorin. This year Tuticorin is leading and has better outlook for the rest of the year. Can Tuticorin beat Chennai finally šŸ˜‰

    Reply

  92. Karnataka gets widespread untimely rains, ending 8.30 am on 15.11.2014
    =========================================================
    The trough in the lower level easterlies from Lakshadweep area to south Gujarat off the west coast now runs from southeast Arabian Sea to south Gujarat coast across eastcentral Arabian Sea.

    in mm (min 40 mm)

    Bhogavi – 106
    Iavatur – 96
    Naravi – 84
    Rae – 82
    Mugutkan Hubli – 77
    Haliyal – 73
    Hanagal – 72
    Karkala – 65
    Belagatta – 65
    Benachi – 64
    Balekundaribk – 63
    Sulkeri – 61
    Pala – 61
    Kakkeri – 60
    Agumbe – 57
    Murkavada – 57
    Tegur – 56
    Karike – 55
    Kirwatti – 53
    Bidi – 51
    Dharmasthala – 51
    Gunji – 50
    Desur – 50
    Tigadi – 50
    Balale – 49
    Belavanur – 48
    Belgaum AP – 47
    Kalasa – 47
    Vajrahalli – 46
    Bantwal – 46
    Sulebhavi – 45
    Neginhall – 45
    Kigga – 44
    Adur – 43
    Londa – 42
    Hulikatti – 42
    Yekkambi – 42
    Santibastwad – 42
    Kadra – 41
    Nagargali – 40
    Jagalur – 40
    Haunsabhavi – 40
    Kakati – 40
    Turuvanur – 40
    Mani – 40

    For past data

    Kea Converse – http://forum.keaweather.org/viewforum.php?f=11

    TWM – https://www.facebook.com/tamilnaduweatherman

    Vagaries Rainman – http://tamilnaduweatherman.blogspot.in/p/all-india-significant-rainfall-in-mm.html

    Reply

  94. Maharashtra gets rain after a long break, ending 8.30 am on 14.11.2014
    ============================================
    The low pressure area over Gulf of Mannar and adjoining areas of south coastal Tamil Nadu and Sri Lanka has become less marked is now embedded in the trough in the easterlies from Lakshadweep area to south Gujarat off the west coast

    in mm (min 10 mm)

    Pathri – 72
    Nandgaon – 64
    Vaibhavwadi – 64
    Bhuibavda – 43
    Yedgaon – 36
    Lohara – 31
    Patgaon – 29
    Kowad – 26
    Sonand – 24
    Aajara – 22
    Jamkhed – 22
    Pachanwadagaon – 20
    Ku.pimpalgaon – 18
    Pimpalgaon – 17
    Mandavgan – 17
    Aashti – 17
    Dhamangaon – 17
    Amboli – 16
    Jamkhed – 16
    Yelavi – 16
    Dundage – 16
    Manikdhondi – 15
    Koshimbe – 14
    Yeola – 14
    Makni – 14
    Pimpalgaon – 13
    Gadhinglaj – 12
    Narangwadi – 12
    Kinwat – 12
    Jalna – 12
    Jambsamartha – 12
    Nandur – 11
    Mirajgaon – 11
    Junnar – 11
    Takali – 11
    Gargoti – 10
    Soygaon – 10
    Parshivani – 10
    Kashti – 10
    Hatid – 10
    Takalibhan – 10
    Halkarni – 10
    Kasaba – 10
    Chandgad – 10
    Chandori – 10
    Sankh – 10
    Chaas – 10
    Chimbhla – 10
    Uttur – 10

    Reply

  96. Circulation which developed to the south east of chennai is now in arabain sea to the south west of mumbai.Conditions are not favorable for any development.

    Reply

  97. Maharashtra gets rain for 2nd of heavy unseasonal rains, ending 8.30 am on 15.11.2014
    =========================================================
    The trough in the lower level easterlies from Lakshadweep area to south Gujarat off the west coast now runs from southeast Arabian Sea to south Gujarat coast across eastcentral Arabian Sea.

    in mm (min 50 mm)

    Eklara – 123
    Dhom – 106
    Sangave – 100
    Chikhali – 91
    Rashin – 90
    Manikdhondi – 80
    Aambawane – 78
    Hiwara – 78
    Bahal – 75
    Parali – 70
    Sangamner – 70
    Hiwkhed – 70
    Belapur – 67
    Bodhegaon – 66
    Rahuri – 65
    Vilvade – 65
    Wagrul – 65
    Nandgaon – 64
    Erandgaon – 62
    Bhambed – 61
    Kapurwadi – 61
    Chinchodi – 60
    Wadala – 60
    Kadgaon – 60
    Kannad – 60
    Andera – 60
    Warwand – 60
    Balapur – 59
    Bhor – 58
    Mehuna – 56
    Surur – 55
    Dhamangaon – 55
    Hupari – 55
    Chandai – 54
    Bhatkudgaon – 54
    Kolara – 54
    Lanja – 53
    Shrirampur – 52
    Chikalthana – 52
    Pawarwadi – 52
    Takalibhan – 51
    Mera – 51
    Jalna – 50
    Gaganbawda – 50
    Peth – 50
    Lakhanwada – 50
    Jawala – 50
    Dhorjalgaon – 50
    Ghodap – 50

    For past data

    Kea Converse – http://forum.keaweather.org/viewforum.php?f=11

    TWM – https://www.facebook.com/tamilnaduweatherman

    Vagaries Rainman – http://tamilnaduweatherman.blogspot.in/p/all-india-significant-rainfall-in-mm.html

    Reply

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