Next system is taking shape and is expected to give good rains for Chennai
starting on Wednesday. Rains may last 2-3 days and minimum of 100 mm can be expected for Chennai.
Next system is taking shape and is expected to give good rains for Chennai
starting on Wednesday. Rains may last 2-3 days and minimum of 100 mm can be expected for Chennai.
KeaWeather Archives 
Hopefully this topic works..
Rains on the way
Jeetu.. Only we 2 online?
Is it?
No.. GTS is there
Fine
I m waiting here for the ECMWF update
I was wondering where the cyclone anatomists have gone… 😉
Ohh new topic…Did not notice that..
Good night friends
why 2 people are online is because rest are keeping quite ahead of cyclone for Chennai.
ECMWF throws some light on the next system
Latest ECMWF expects a DD to cross close to Chnai with wind speeds of 60 kmph …
Will take it any day.
Yes at last some least encouragement from the don of weather models
Close to Madras is it? North or south of the city?
slowly, these models will drift it up south AP/Central TN
Conditions across the Bay of Bengal are only marginally favorable for tropical development. As a result, we do not expect a significant tropical cyclone to develop from this low pressure system. However, it will remain well enough organized to bring the threat for heavy rain and gusty winds during the second half of the week.
The latest projections point toward impacts along the coast of central or southern Andhra Pradesh or possibly northern Tamil Nadu. — Courtesy AccuWeather
North coastal TN is going to get pounded from the upcoming system, which is destined towards north/ central TN, most probably just south of Pondy.
LF could be between Pondicherry and Vedaranyam at Nagapatnam??
It has to remain south of pondy… even if it moves littlr higher it will sucked in by sap/cap
2 or 3 days of rain is not enough.we need continous steady rains for atleasr 4 or 5 days
let us first get those 2 to 3 days rain..
Winds are erratic and easterlies are absent…more like non existent monsoon
No no based on all models deluge confirmed from wednesday.
Lets see what happens, many models have failed this year.
Yeah eagerley waitin to see wet chennai. At last the day is arriving. All fingers crossed
Easterlies doing the job.
TS to the East and NE of Karaikal.
gud morning guys……..
This week is make or break for chennai as far as NEM rains are concerned.
hmm
no hmms or aahs, it is the fact.
kk…i understood..lets see..
hope we get more rains than the onset rains…
Yes coming 72 hours absolutely vital, a miss here we are doomed
Rain entry the radar on tomorom evening?
we may get cloudy skies from tomorrow evening with soe hsowers..
but mostly it will start by Wednesday..
Glorious sunny day as of today. Does not look like a NEM morning.
I mentioned it in my comment yesterday that today there will be no rain. Dont be suprised if you wake up tmrw morning and again if the sky is clear. Its tmrw night or Wednesday morning rains will start. And its looking good for us to receive very heavy rains.
Lets see, this week will decide our NEM fate.
after the upcoming system crossing Indian still it remain alive for next two days…
gfs(earth null)
shows the system as a medium intensity to cross south of Chennai where the winds are crashing into Chennai..
so heavy rain on the way.
Back from Pondicherry Marriage. The best that can happen for Chennai on 12-13th
still two days 2 go..
my phone weather expects very thundery weather form Tuesday lasting till Saturday…
but i dont think so it will last till Saturday?
accuweather predicted showers from last friday, not a drop, dont go by all those phone weather bulletins.
today the comments will be less than 750 comments..
by going this rate..,
rains needed to ignite the bloggers, not sunny skies
1000 or 750 is just a number. I would take even a 100 if it serves the purpose and is rich in quality without any unnecessary chatting
Rightly said.
recent ecmwf is pucca for n.tn..and even more gud news is tat system intensity has been increased
That is great Selva , wind speed chart latest was showing 17 m/s , a near 60 kmph , Hope a sure DD/Minimal TC for N.TN is almost getting confirmed
wind shear is getting reduced in sw bay n adj bay as ridge is slowly moving east.. so upper level winds will be from southeast and when system moves into sw bay, the inflow and lower level winds from east-s.east .. finally both level winds r from same direction resulting in very low shear in sw bay..
yes .. northern quadrant has some tight storms in both gfs and ecmwf
60 to 70% chance for a new disturbance to form in s.bay near lanka on 16th/17th…
GFS meteogram for Chennai
======================
The Highest in a single day shown by GFS this year.
I didnt know u still follow this
Its for you. More than one Cola
When metogram show over 50mm rains. Its surehsot heavy rains.
precipitation accumulation (next 4 days)of gfs shows severe deluge for n.tn
Heavy rains from Wednesday??
Yes
gem picks the next system on 20th. soon other models will follow
yes pj..tats great news .. i think gfs picked tat two days back on 16th, and ecmwf picking tat on 17th.. anyway days may vary, v need the confirmation of genesis.more or less tis is good going so far…
this system seems already quite mature far in the sea. given the time and distance in the sea, it can become a powerful one if at all it forms
system has moved perfect nw.. northern quadrant is seen with 20knts and ill defined southern quadrant with 5kts
Lower level convergence splits into two equal magnitude cells , whereas upper level divergence region is found located between the two aloft and is higher at 20 magnitude
cimss update is out?
Morning 5:30 update only , 8:30 not out yet
so what to expect in upcoming gfs run?
WP99 has done a N/NW track in the last 12 hours- rather than the W/NW track expected.
The System is building a promising Northern Quadrant.
It was at 9.1n 95.2e at 0000Z maintaining the same 20knots.
Looks like its between 2 influencing ridges.One going through Srilanka and the other going through Central AP.it currently seems to be under the influence of the Central AP ridge and so is taking the N/NW path..The Crucial point is 90E where it could take either of the 2 paths depending on the relative strengths
N/NW TRACK? if it continue this track long time ??then what happend?
Intense TS east of karaikal.
Chidambaram-Nagapattinam will get some showers.
Chennai might see some large cover of cumulus cover after a break of 5 days.
Only 5 days?
Yes before that we had atleast cloud cover.
From Nov 5th its dry with cirrus clouds now its time to revive.
What you will do with cloud cover, we need rains
Cloud cover gives some happy rather than clear skies.
Its the main thing for Rain.
Easterlies provide gigantic clouds which gives isolated TS which was currently happening over karaikal.
My view is the cloud cover can some how reduce the heat
Seems the upper level ridge is centered somewhere close to Thailand – Burma border, so the current system has to be fast moving as the models expect , and should be of low intensity . If either situation arises , system gaining latitude has a great probability. Rightly the shear isn’t too low, that is one good factor , that ll help system to maintain its WNW movement ……
GTS- crucial pitstop is at 90E
A small slip at 90E could mean that it may gain strength with the favourable conditions and take a path to South/Central AP
Gopal dont worry if god wills this system is going to give good rains for us
pit stop to fuel the engine and replace the tyres tat wer damaged of friction.
it looks interesting.
1.If it gains strength,it may just be taken away to AP
2.If it maintains current strength,then it may come to TN as a LPA.
We do not have much of a choice!Lets not get greedy.Lets go for Option 2
if it fails to develop, tis may move dead west twrds lanka-s.tn
i think it is weak system all models are changing lf location to srilanka..
Yes Gops, it has to maintain a low profile ….all the way and should remain humble and down to earth, or else it ll run mad and would become a deadly missile
Sema punch
and a wayward one too
recent gfs pulling the system twrds n.lanka
navgem also taking to n.srilanka to s.tn
open it in new tab .. shear value around the center and its near forward path is really very very favourable http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/indian/winds/wm5shtZ.GIF
It has a very good chance to reach c.tn
System is moving very rapidly. Does it mean it maintains a low profile?
it can pass TN quickly too if it maintains the same pace and rain days will be less
Movement and intensity , can’t be related ….That movement speed depends on the environmental steering flow in which it is embedded
If it is moving rapidly, then it doesn’t have enough time to intensify itself.
Yes u r rite , but it cannot be said that way completely , Rapid intensification can happen even in faster moving systems
is there any chance for this system to become a cyclone ?
If it becomes Cyclone, it will hit C AP. Now tel me do you want cyclone?! 😀
nope
Let me tell you something about Hope: ” Hope is a good thing but at the same time dangerous, it can drive a man crazy!”
Weather and women can never be predicted accurately!
Let us take one system at a time, since now the predictions are that rain will start in the next 48 hours, models seem more reliable than that predicts rain after a week or 10 days down the line…
NEM’la enakku pudikadha ore vartha ‘deluge’… the deluge that never happens… hope this time it will make me wrong
We had deluge in chennai at oct 17 to 20th at the time of start of NEM.
We may have one like that from upcoming system.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=vor&zoom=Z&time=
Chennai is going to get pound on from wednesday & Thursday.
Remember it is a super fast dd/lpa, it will pass just like that, show will be over within 36 hrs
yes..its going to get over in 48 hrs & pour like anything as PJ said earlier its a rain filled system..
I ‘m waiting for that
Wat s deluge??
Very much
So 10 cm confirmed??
If this forecast gets happened..we r about to get 20cm rain in 2 days..
Could you pls share the link to track the position of current system?
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/
thank you 🙂
System is moving in WNW direction. Doesn’t look like it will get organized which is gud news for us
Foreca not showing huge towers for 12 and 13 😦
Yes but things mite change in evening forecast
how you both having same profile pic
both are same persons …lol….
U blind or wat those r diff pic
Pls go to this link in the forum to get latest updates on WP99
http://forum.keaweather.org/viewtopic.php?f=37&t=341&p=12357#p12357
I have added links to CIMSS,Thailand National Satellite and NOAA satellites ( which is tracking this system)
Dry air is at higher magnitude , seems to be moving eastward along the STR at surface levels from the Arabian peninsula, could affect the current system , if the system stalls or moves slower . So in case the system gains latitude or strengthens when doing so , could end up what last year’s Lehar experienced
Yes Gokul,
This year Nilofer has spoiled our easterlies… by pulling all the Dry Air from Western Region and pushed t Eastern Region.
No , that cannot be possible , they are regular as Selva said , not unusual
I feel that Siberian high has also very weak due to this incident.
Sidr
Oh no !!!, I never knew about the extent of dry air close to SIDR . Then I was wrong , anything may happen , nature is truly unique ,
why our North east monsoon always have some disturbance in south west monsoon not happening what is the variation between S.W.M & N.E.M
NEM is extremely favorable for Cyclones , by having overall reduced wind shear , but the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone shifts down latitude , and so the available moisture is limited to lower latitudes to a major extent. So does the southern shift of Sub Tropical Ridges also till the ground levels . All this because it is fall (Autumn) here in N.Hemisphere …..So at times conditions favor and leads to Cyclones .
SWM monsoon occurs in peak Summer of the N.Hemisphere , so a lot of moisture , upto mid tropospheric levels , so clouds don’t have any risk or great problem
If v see tat sat image, entire arb sea, entire indian landmass was full of pitch thaar black in color with crytal clear image
Yes gokul, Tis is nothing new to us.. usually arb ridge gets extending into our land with dry air.
Then it entirely depends on the dynamics of a storm and the resistance it offers to influence of dry air
Yes exactly ..Tat ability to resist is the matter
Yes yes I remember that Satellite image, complete black and we were able to feel the cold wave even here in TN , …the real dryness….
Exp41 astronaut Astro_Reid from NASA bundles up in below freezing temps after landing after 165 days on ISS.
Expedition 41 Commander Max Suraev of the Russian Federal Space Agency (Roscosmos) and Flight Engineers Reid Wiseman of NASA and Alexander Gerst of the European Space Agency touched down northeast of the remote town of Arkalyk in Kazakhstan at 10:58 p.m. EST. While in space, they traveled more than 70 million miles.
Vortex over SE BOB located at 8.0N 95.0E as per IMD
Click to access description.pdf
Hi genieuss plz tel that is coming to correct track?any probabalities of this system failiure?
Go through discussion. Then u will have idea what is going on
Good news pouring from all bloggers and the expectation is at its zenith. Unfortunately my work load is too much for today to take active participation. : (
How much south chennai will get from upcoming system?
How much will central chennai get?
100 mm miniumum
South chennai?
Whoa!!!! Is that u kea?? Or was that sarcasm?
100 mm is very less. This is November. Systems normally give 250+
But still… 🙂
IND expects 25 knts wind from the system
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/nwp/48hgfs_850wind.htm
5.5 earthquake, 80km ENE of General Luna, Philippines. Nov 10 12:41 at epicenter (depth 63km). http://j.mp/1uUiHHI
Chances of earth quake and resulting Tsunami affecting at the time of Cyclone will be the rarest. God is merciful. : )
Blog down again…
For me too
what is the position of upcoming system its wml or L.P This time is affect Tamilnadu or moves north because of dry air any chance of affect?, we want heavy rain badly monsoon started good after that 1st spell nothing happens still we all waiting for upcoming system
Dont worry next system is for us only and will give very good rains whether it is a lpa or dd
lets not be too overconfident.
You will fail this time kea
fail what? I said minimum 100 mm expected. I have never said a maximum amount
Overall nem rains
let me fail this year atleast. I have been winning last 2 years.
Not overconfident but seeing all weather sites and models we are on our way to get some good rains this week even you know that too. But the new ones get scared seeing the bright sunshine outside thinking something happened to the system.
who ever wins on the predictions, rain benefits everyone!!! 🙂 if not here, then somewhere else. It is not going to go waste like how we dont properly manage and en-route the rain water to appropriate reservoir for the future use.
Use this link to access comments https://disqus.com/home/discussion/keaweatherchennai/rains_expected_to_begin_by_wednesday
ppl who r already accessing this, have that link.
I know. I gave it to inform the newbies.
Very important poll. All please participate.
Disadvantages of WordPress: No automatic refreshing of comments.
Images can be posted only thru links. It cannot be posted directly.
Done
The blog suffers cause all users have the webpage kept open in their mobile phones. Is there a way to disconnect a user after certain time of inactivity?
only way possible is with double registration. We need to ensure all users register in WordPress too. WordPress can log off after inactivity. But you need to log in all over again.
Not sure if bloggers will want that either.
If that’s fine, we should accept it
that would be fine i believe. Most people use Chrome and it automatically fills in username/password even for https
If its going to help in the stability of the blog I would not mind keying in the user name and password every time..
i have registered in wordpress
Kea,
My Opinion Is that Disqus Is quickest to post a reply easy to handle but at the same time it has some technical issues…:(btw could you make some changes so that it could work perfectly??
We all r trying to make it work. But the errors are not stopping.
A comment in our FB page about 1966 cyclone by Mr.Ramachandran Venkataraman, who was a forecaster in Chennai Met Office then:
Those times we did not have 24 hour satellite picture and numerical weather forecasting was in initial experimental stages. we watched for odd ship’s observations. once a ship conveyed wind speed of 30 knots. we believed her though it was possible there might be observational error or even communication error. Immediately we declared a cyclone. once cyclone was announced ships avoided that area and we did not get any other observation and we were blind to the cyclone till it comes near the coast and some coastal observation indicated change of direction or speed of winds. It was a difficult forecasting. By that time it was perhaps too late. there were also many comic situations. Shall write now and then
GFS taking our next system to Gulf of Mannar, this is Chennai’s favorite location.
Why is GOM favourable for us?
Historically, Chennai has got very heavy rains when the system is in GoM,
Eg. Cyclone Nisha, Cyclone Ogni. Even the last month October Circulation.
Wow , really SIDR was truly one historic storm , extreme dry air so close , but it was not allowing that one to influence it’s structure ….
Yes GTS, i already told. Its a once in a life time Cyclone.
Hope History repeats at least once to witness it in my life time
Sidr close to landfall
See the beauty of SIDR 2007
Colossal Monster ……..
WV of Sidr 2007
what is the wind speed of this cyclone
3 min sustained winds were 215 km/h (135 mph) according to the IMD, and 1 min sustained winds were 260 km/h (160 mph) according to the JTWC. So it was CAT4 as per IMD and CAT5 as per international agencies.
Coming system
No the 2007 system
The coming system is just a LPA as of now. It is expected to become a well marked LPA in the next 24 hours.
Ecmwf continues to show only a weak system crossing central TN coast
Thats good it will give us good rains
IMD expects the system to intensify!
Click to access Inference.pdf
I surely tell that the upcoming system will have Chennai LF……..
the blog is down 😦
guys seriously wordpress is very stable and best for bloggers even though it may have its disadvantages ,i have voted for wordpress
Wish the current system intensifies and strikes C.TN!
yeah atleast as a Depression or Deep Depression to provide good rains
Kea, Above 60% voted for word press
Pls no wordpress.. Have to refresh manually to read new comments.
But I voted for livefyre
livefyre is blocked in many offices 😦
that’s the only disadvantage but its stable and good blogging platform
jeetu discuss best
WML builds up clouding and gives moderate rains to AP, ending 8.30 am on 09.11.2014
=========================================
The well marked low pressure area over west-central Bay of Bengal now lies over west-central Bay of Bengal and adjoining coastal areas of Andhra Pradesh. Associated cyclonic circulation extends upto 3.1 kms a.s.l
in mm (min 15 mm)
Katepalli – 54
Ananthasagaram – 41
Chakalakonda – 41
Sullurpet – 34
Kaluvoya – 33
Vetapalem – 33
Pakala – 31
Porumamilla – 31
Dakkali – 28
Gottigundala – 27
Bommavaram – 26
Singarayakonda – 26
Karedu – 25
Chirala – 25
Payalakuntla – 24
Vinjamur – 24
Bapatala – 24
Somasila – 21
Ongole – 21
Chouta Bheemavaram – 20
Totigari palli – 20
Kondapuram – 20
Tada – 20
Zarugumilli – 19
Karlapalem – 19
Bogole – 18
Dubagunta – 18
Kavali – 18
Moksha Gundam – 17
Pothegunta – 17
Podlakur – 16
Kaligir – 16
Zarugumilli – 16
Ganapavaram – 15
Yerrabalem – 15
Torragudipadu – 15
Kothapatnam – 15
WML gives 2nd day of rains in Andhra Pradesh, ending 8.30 am on 10.11.2014
============================================
The wellÂmarked low pressure area over westcentral Bay of Bengal and adjoining coastal areas of Andhra Pradesh has become less marked. However, upper air cyclonic circulation lies over south Andhra Pradesh & adjoining westcentral Bay of Bengal and extends upto lower tropospheric level.
in mm (min 25 mm)
Gonavaram – 76
Kambalapadu – 55
Deebaguntla – 49
Atchutapuratrayam – 40
Narmalapadu – 39
Karapa – 38
Velanka – 38
Sivala – 37
Kothapalli – 36
Jagadurthi – 36
Nagalapalle – 36
Gokavaram – 34
Porumamilla – 34
Kakkinada – 32
Nandyal – 32
Sri Avadhutha Kasinayana – 32
Polavaram – 32
Ravinuthala – 31
Gulladurthi – 30
Pithapuram – 30
Peddapuram – 29
Biccavolu River – 29
Donthamuru – 28
Rayabhuplapatnam – 28
Nandavaram – 28
Ainavalli – 28
Rangampeta – 27
Devanakonda – 27
Krishnagiri – 27
Koppunuru – 27
Peddapuram – 27
Yerragondapalem – 26
Mukkamula – 26
Yeddanapudi – 26
Krishnavaram – 26
Mummidivaram – 26
Kodumuru – 25
Peddapuram – 25
Chelluru – 25
Allagadda – 25
Nandarada – 25
Good numbers
JTWC does not believe in WP 99’s capability to become a TC
again dipped south.
selva do we have any chance from this sys.
Yes we have good chance
yes.
Selva– I dont think it has dipped south..think the interaction with the Andaman land masses has confused the models..run the loop and you will understand.The Old Quadrants are getting destroyed and new Quadrants are developing.But the direction is W/NW
rammb says it has jumped from 9.1 to 8.1N
I saw it..but run the loop and you will understand
wich one ?bd enhancement curve?
SOI value has dropped to -13.45
https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/
WP99 is really struggling to establish itself.Poor convergence