223 thoughts on “Rains expected to begin by Wednesday

  1. Conditions across the Bay of Bengal are only marginally favorable for tropical development. As a result, we do not expect a significant tropical cyclone to develop from this low pressure system. However, it will remain well enough organized to bring the threat for heavy rain and gusty winds during the second half of the week.

    The latest projections point toward impacts along the coast of central or southern Andhra Pradesh or possibly northern Tamil Nadu. — Courtesy AccuWeather

  2. North coastal TN is going to get pounded from the upcoming system, which is destined towards north/ central TN, most probably just south of Pondy.

    • I mentioned it in my comment yesterday that today there will be no rain. Dont be suprised if you wake up tmrw morning and again if the sky is clear. Its tmrw night or Wednesday morning rains will start. And its looking good for us to receive very heavy rains.

  3. after the upcoming system crossing Indian still it remain alive for next two days…
    gfs(earth null)
    shows the system as a medium intensity to cross south of Chennai where the winds are crashing into Chennai..
    so heavy rain on the way.

  4. my phone weather expects very thundery weather form Tuesday lasting till Saturday…
    but i dont think so it will last till Saturday?

    • That is great Selva , wind speed chart latest was showing 17 m/s , a near 60 kmph , Hope a sure DD/Minimal TC for N.TN is almost getting confirmed

      • wind shear is getting reduced in sw bay n adj bay as ridge is slowly moving east.. so upper level winds will be from southeast and when system moves into sw bay, the inflow and lower level winds from east-s.east .. finally both level winds r from same direction resulting in very low shear in sw bay..

    • yes pj..tats great news .. i think gfs picked tat two days back on 16th, and ecmwf picking tat on 17th.. anyway days may vary, v need the confirmation of genesis.more or less tis is good going so far…

      • this system seems already quite mature far in the sea. given the time and distance in the sea, it can become a powerful one if at all it forms

  5. Lower level convergence splits into two equal magnitude cells , whereas upper level divergence region is found located between the two aloft and is higher at 20 magnitude

  6. WP99 has done a N/NW track in the last 12 hours- rather than the W/NW track expected.

    The System is building a promising Northern Quadrant.

    It was at 9.1n 95.2e at 0000Z maintaining the same 20knots.

    • Looks like its between 2 influencing ridges.One going through Srilanka and the other going through Central AP.it currently seems to be under the influence of the Central AP ridge and so is taking the N/NW path..The Crucial point is 90E where it could take either of the 2 paths depending on the relative strengths

  7. Intense TS east of karaikal.
    Chidambaram-Nagapattinam will get some showers.
    Chennai might see some large cover of cumulus cover after a break of 5 days.

  8. Seems the upper level ridge is centered somewhere close to Thailand – Burma border, so the current system has to be fast moving as the models expect , and should be of low intensity . If either situation arises , system gaining latitude has a great probability. Rightly the shear isn’t too low, that is one good factor , that ll help system to maintain its WNW movement ……

  9. Let us take one system at a time, since now the predictions are that rain will start in the next 48 hours, models seem more reliable than that predicts rain after a week or 10 days down the line…

    • We had deluge in chennai at oct 17 to 20th at the time of start of NEM.
      We may have one like that from upcoming system.

  10. Dry air is at higher magnitude , seems to be moving eastward along the STR at surface levels from the Arabian peninsula, could affect the current system , if the system stalls or moves slower . So in case the system gains latitude or strengthens when doing so , could end up what last year’s Lehar experienced

      • Oh no !!!, I never knew about the extent of dry air close to SIDR . Then I was wrong , anything may happen , nature is truly unique ,

      • why our North east monsoon always have some disturbance in south west monsoon not happening what is the variation between S.W.M & N.E.M

      • NEM is extremely favorable for Cyclones , by having overall reduced wind shear , but the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone shifts down latitude , and so the available moisture is limited to lower latitudes to a major extent. So does the southern shift of Sub Tropical Ridges also till the ground levels . All this because it is fall (Autumn) here in N.Hemisphere …..So at times conditions favor and leads to Cyclones .

        SWM monsoon occurs in peak Summer of the N.Hemisphere , so a lot of moisture , upto mid tropospheric levels , so clouds don’t have any risk or great problem

      • If v see tat sat image, entire arb sea, entire indian landmass was full of pitch thaar black in color with crytal clear image

      • Then it entirely depends on the dynamics of a storm and the resistance it offers to influence of dry air

      • Yes yes I remember that Satellite image, complete black and we were able to feel the cold wave even here in TN , …the real dryness….

  11. Exp41 astronaut Astro_Reid from NASA bundles up in below freezing temps after landing after 165 days on ISS.

    Expedition 41 Commander Max Suraev of the Russian Federal Space Agency (Roscosmos) and Flight Engineers Reid Wiseman of NASA and Alexander Gerst of the European Space Agency touched down northeast of the remote town of Arkalyk in Kazakhstan at 10:58 p.m. EST. While in space, they traveled more than 70 million miles.

  12. Good news pouring from all bloggers and the expectation is at its zenith. Unfortunately my work load is too much for today to take active participation. : (

  13. what is the position of upcoming system its wml or L.P This time is affect Tamilnadu or moves north because of dry air any chance of affect?, we want heavy rain badly monsoon started good after that 1st spell nothing happens still we all waiting for upcoming system

  14. Kea,
    My Opinion Is that Disqus Is quickest to post a reply easy to handle but at the same time it has some technical issues…:(btw could you make some changes so that it could work perfectly??

  15. A comment in our FB page about 1966 cyclone by Mr.Ramachandran Venkataraman, who was a forecaster in Chennai Met Office then:

    Those times we did not have 24 hour satellite picture and numerical weather forecasting was in initial experimental stages. we watched for odd ship’s observations. once a ship conveyed wind speed of 30 knots. we believed her though it was possible there might be observational error or even communication error. Immediately we declared a cyclone. once cyclone was announced ships avoided that area and we did not get any other observation and we were blind to the cyclone till it comes near the coast and some coastal observation indicated change of direction or speed of winds. It was a difficult forecasting. By that time it was perhaps too late. there were also many comic situations. Shall write now and then

  16. Wow , really SIDR was truly one historic storm , extreme dry air so close , but it was not allowing that one to influence it’s structure ….

  17. guys seriously wordpress is very stable and best for bloggers even though it may have its disadvantages ,i have voted for wordpress

  18. WML builds up clouding and gives moderate rains to AP, ending 8.30 am on 09.11.2014
    =========================================
    The well marked low pressure area over west-central Bay of Bengal now lies over west-central Bay of Bengal and adjoining coastal areas of Andhra Pradesh. Associated cyclonic circulation extends upto 3.1 kms a.s.l

    in mm (min 15 mm)

    Katepalli – 54
    Ananthasagaram – 41
    Chakalakonda – 41
    Sullurpet – 34
    Kaluvoya – 33
    Vetapalem – 33
    Pakala – 31
    Porumamilla – 31
    Dakkali – 28
    Gottigundala – 27
    Bommavaram – 26
    Singarayakonda – 26
    Karedu – 25
    Chirala – 25
    Payalakuntla – 24
    Vinjamur – 24
    Bapatala – 24
    Somasila – 21
    Ongole – 21
    Chouta Bheemavaram – 20
    Totigari palli – 20
    Kondapuram – 20
    Tada – 20
    Zarugumilli – 19
    Karlapalem – 19
    Bogole – 18
    Dubagunta – 18
    Kavali – 18
    Moksha Gundam – 17
    Pothegunta – 17
    Podlakur – 16
    Kaligir – 16
    Zarugumilli – 16
    Ganapavaram – 15
    Yerrabalem – 15
    Torragudipadu – 15
    Kothapatnam – 15

  19. WML gives 2nd day of rains in Andhra Pradesh, ending 8.30 am on 10.11.2014
    ============================================
    The well­marked low pressure area over westcentral Bay of Bengal and adjoining coastal areas of Andhra Pradesh has become less marked. However, upper air cyclonic circulation lies over south Andhra Pradesh & adjoining westcentral Bay of Bengal and extends upto lower tropospheric level.

    in mm (min 25 mm)

    Gonavaram – 76
    Kambalapadu – 55
    Deebaguntla – 49
    Atchutapuratrayam – 40
    Narmalapadu – 39
    Karapa – 38
    Velanka – 38
    Sivala – 37
    Kothapalli – 36
    Jagadurthi – 36
    Nagalapalle – 36
    Gokavaram – 34
    Porumamilla – 34
    Kakkinada – 32
    Nandyal – 32
    Sri Avadhutha Kasinayana – 32
    Polavaram – 32
    Ravinuthala – 31
    Gulladurthi – 30
    Pithapuram – 30
    Peddapuram – 29
    Biccavolu River – 29
    Donthamuru – 28
    Rayabhuplapatnam – 28
    Nandavaram – 28
    Ainavalli – 28
    Rangampeta – 27
    Devanakonda – 27
    Krishnagiri – 27
    Koppunuru – 27
    Peddapuram – 27
    Yerragondapalem – 26
    Mukkamula – 26
    Yeddanapudi – 26
    Krishnavaram – 26
    Mummidivaram – 26
    Kodumuru – 25
    Peddapuram – 25
    Chelluru – 25
    Allagadda – 25
    Nandarada – 25

  20. Selva– I dont think it has dipped south..think the interaction with the Andaman land masses has confused the models..run the loop and you will understand.The Old Quadrants are getting destroyed and new Quadrants are developing.But the direction is W/NW

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