There is a huge build-up of clouds suddenly around the existing WML near north TN and south AP coast.. Everyone’s eyes have turned to the Andaman system which is expected to come towards Chennai around 12th November. But the existing system has developed good clouding and is saying watchout. I may give you something before fading away. See the intense rains expected in Chennai as per GFS.
KeaWeather Archives 
First comment. Come soon rains.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014110812/ecmwf_uv850_vort_ind_5.png
Ecm xpecting low intensity may be a wml 😦
Madrid, Spain is the least humid city partly due to it being the highest capital in Europe at 667m (2,188 feet). Temperatures fall at night due to low humidity, otherwise, Madrid would be one of the hottest cities as well.
Thala I thought you were slept
Novak taking KEA to Global Weather, Great! – proving think locally act globally
That’s why he is our official kea blog thala
Sir thanks for providing these cool facts everyday
Sure shot of rains around 2 am onwards
radar looks promising tonight!!
One of the most tropical storm-prone areas in the
world is the on island of Luzon in the Philippines. On average, the island experiences 10 typhoons each year.
Philippines on the whole , the average is 20 per year ….
Sorry to use your platform “Indru Oru Thagaval “
I like it
Do you want to settle in phillipines
Solomon islands then?
No idea ..
Wanna check that one, but phillipines must be no 1
Yes very much
Located on the Pacific Ring Of Fire…
Tonight is the most crucial period of this WML. Hope it copes with our high expectations in the final lap.
After this low we have good system for 12th
Please note. I said this WML.
sorry typing error. But BBC forecasts a deluge for 12th nov
I feel this WML will hang around till Tuesday afternoon or evening.
Why so long, any specific reason
Almost everyone washed hands on this one just to wonder later. We can’t underestimate any system. Who knows, it may well trigger excellent rainfall thereby pulling next system again to AP
Nature doing the perfect balancing act for Nellore n surrounding areas.
But when it is going to do for us after almost 3 to 4 years of poor nem?
be calm next system to arrive by next week
Hope so
Bermuda triangle mystery not yet solved
A powerful cat 5 will break that triangle’s nose and the mystery
understand your frustration , but minimum steady continuous rain is what we expect , at-least this NEM
We have got almost 500 mm this NEM. We couldn’t have asked for a better start.
start and all ok…. but
But finishing sari illayepa
We are not too far from Nellore. Remember, Nellore has had a poor NEM 2013, Swm 2014 and they got hardly anything in October this year. We are slightly better off.
That’s right
At upper levels, winds are from east.
Upper level Ridge’s outflows
moves nicely
Just now came from velachery to madipakkam. lightning all around and nice pleasant weather.. clouds started moving in..
Will get first shower by 2
Shankar, have a look at the radar animation, storms nicely moving in from NE.
yes. but vvp2 not looking good. vinod too was not confident of rains from this. He said little or no rains. I too stick with Shar to ongole. let us see..
I feel it’s closing in towards the city areas. Can surely expect some decent showers from this system. No need to underestimate it.
yes. 1 hr back it was dissipating E of Chennai. But now it is strengthening. so something good for sure.
Nobody can predict nature that accurate,another best example happening
but ppi (v) seems to indicate that the storms are moving away.. I think we are in the edge of the circulation.
But after mahabs no rains will be there, as of now ts continue to gain strength
check this. you will understand what i say.
PPI V
PPI V is planned position indicator velocity data. Using the Doppler Theory, the radar uses a Doppler Shift to determine the velocity of a reflector. In this product, a single elevation angle is scanned, and the velocity of the reflectors is returned. Negative values indicate reflectors moving towards the radar, while positive values indicate reflectors moving away from the radar. It should be noted that the further the radar beam extends from the radar, the higher it’s elevation, thus it should report higher velocity values as winds are generally stronger at higher altitudes.
Fine, good info
Awesome, ECMWF picks up the 3rd week easterly wave
Susa, you still awake or finished one kutti sleep ?
doing maths
Really or reel vidriya
susa wow 3 continuous waves we are in for a deluge
This is gonnna happen after 9 years back from 2005
two topics today??
one is in title , what is another ?
Next week forecast looks positive for Chennai
Ya i see that now.. May b created by mistake
you are right , just seen
New one was created at 12…. Technically its the next day..
Wow,Ts gaining good strength, all of sudden pa kids will awake after rumbling thunder
nice to see this type of comment. hope it comes true
Very active ts just see radar
but looks like very slow moving ??
That’s good for us, it will stand and deliver to us
awesome point
pa kids will hope for holiday tommorow
WOW…..intense thunder storms moving towards chennai…sure rain before 2.30AM IST
Radar luks dangerous
Will it rain tonight? I don’t think so…
It will rain in chennai, not sure about dubai
lol jeetender (y)
He is from dubai
Sorry bro… Just now saw radar… Chennai in for treat
Now you got it, we are in real thirst for rains
Enjoy d rain tonight…
You too enjoy chill nights
Ts gaining rapid strength, may get electric storm status
Hi…what is electric storm status?
Damaal dummel rumbling loud thunder with heavy rains
ha ha….i am still awake to hear all those..hope it happens
There shouldn’t be any further twists I guess
Then you wont sleep at all as it wont happen
how u say like that ?
In 2005 we had a worst deluge more than 50cms of rain in a single day and followed by successive rain cum cyclone systems. Now as per our expert susa and forecasts back to back systems are forecasted and if comes true then it is NEM 2005 repeat.
Winds r weak n variable in vvp not sure :confused:
Oh Jon break the law and rules just enjoy the upcoming ts
exactly. storms seem to move away from us. pl correct me if i am wrong jon..
Though you are right, as I know what vvp states, but going by human nature I too expect something, too near yet too far is the conditions prevailing as of now
dont worry our share is not far away.. can start anytime.
Appada, ungala samathanam panrathukulla, gir girnnu aiyiten
🙂
rain vl start anytme from now in nbkm..
i did not see any satellite picture today. where is 99w? 😦 Has it dipped down towards SE-BOB?
OLR: http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/olr.htm
Nem getting active
OMG..total coastal AP has flared up with rains? is it correct satellite picture. did not expected like this 😦
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/insatsector-ir.htm
But I am waiting to just tilt down liitle bit south
yes, but will 99W pull all these clouds towards it? or push inland?
Do you think it will have that much effect with this weak wml
Chennai has a chance too
Check radar 🙂
Electric squall is under cooking, will be served hot anytime around 2
Drought places like Nellore ongole kavali in for treat…. Nature balancing very well..,
These are not even starters to them, they need one unlimited buffet meals of their giant rain standards
Nope..They are NEM weighweights. They have not had any major rains for past 2 years.
radar looks great hoping for the rain bands to reach us
those rainbands in radar will reach us right guys?? or am i wrong?
No..It wont reach us.
oh okay, too bad i thought we would get some rain from this
There is still chance as we couldnot judge with vvp.Look for few more radar updates or animation
saw animation clouds moving wsw and new rain bands building up 50kms away from us http://www.imd.gov.in/section/dwr/img/Animation/dop_ani_main.htm
Luks like some chance is there for rains going by the animation
yeah it looks like North Chennai might get some good rains
how can u say that?
No idea..Very confusing. Winds are different at VVP in radar. Not sure where they are moving
okay lets hope for the best
New topic created..
kea accidentally created new topic i guess without seeing this post created by PJ
I heard de frst little thunder here
1.40 AM – Heavy Drizzle is Mogappair…
raining n royapuram
as expected rain started in chennai…now its a drizzle and after 3 AM chennai will recieve moderate showers…
No chance
Not sure abt the rains as of now
pa group waking early morning to check rains for holiday tomorrow?
Nellore to Shriharikota getting good rains
No rain in West mambalam
only drizzle in adambakkam.
South AP to get pounding rains from SHAR to ONGOLE.
light drizzles at tpk for the past 20 mins i am enjoying the wet start
Bay system performing disco dance…. Hehe
Today can we expect 8 cm in chennai??
Why all the storm shifted north
Beautiful orange sky,nature at its best!
OMG…complete/partial regeneration of 91B? Has 99w sacrificed part its moisture to 91B ?
Or else SOI has increased today itself. Curious to know about today’s SOI value. Its miracle recovery to 91B 🙂
91B: http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/satellite/Asia/India/Infraredcolor.htm
It us the moisture collected from a also 10 days..
Nice look of 91b any more suspense can it provide to us
Rains confirmed from Chennai to Machilipatnam!
what is the wind direction?can anyone tell me?
Into coast and then to north-west
So no rains for us right?
When the clouds from different levels condence..we may get ..but more around nellore
Lucky nellore geting heavy rain hoping for wind direction to change
it wont….. 😦
chennai getting light drizzle from 5 A.M
Nellore only 3 mm til 5.30
Ohhh
OMG…91B is going crazy????
It moving all the way thats like
looks like its moving north along the coast???
Ya north west
yep
The strong westerlies pulling the bay system shore but in bad (for us) direction
looks like it is moving north along the coast???
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=vor&zoom=&time=
Moved west till late night, then changed direction NW. May cross the coast between SAP-CAP.
So its better to shift our focus on next BOB pulse 99W.
Rightly said
Thus is the end of the system.
The second system entering bay waters……we may expect rains tonight……
91B is not giving heavy rains anywhere at this moment 😦
Tress tilting in SW direction…….
Today we will get rains and some times little bit heavy.LET’S WAIT AND SEE….
Noo
I told let’s wait and see…
Hmm
Closing 91B…………….
Many stations have reported good numbers in AP
How many mm can we expect for CHENNAI today?
May be 0mm
Ya good stroms over there but…….
it is our strom
As @ramisettisrinivasarao:disqus said put the flames with Gas all along the coast…….. 😛
Loll
No chance of heavy rain or light rain not possible for chennai .
Once again wind direction changed at mid night thats y we cant get rain
Right said……..We may expect rains tonight from the second system……..
Noo at all
Enna pa ithu next system also cross near s.ap.
No its for us…………..
How 91B has been regenerating with moisture filled clouds/convection?? All factors are same/not changed.
Very eager to see the latest SOI value.
91b got intensified much than expected..its interaction with land pulls all the moisture and proved itself as a super wml..its same will happen for 99w ..if it get weakens & while reach our coast..its going to pound us..
Enna koduma sir idhu
Wished for some drizzles at Perambur station in the morning and got it. Slight drizzles when I got down at 6.08 am today morning. Seems Perambur station areas had got decent showers around 3.30 am as there were puddles of water to be seen. My auto driver confirmed the time.
Yes we had very light drizzle and now that too fizzled out
99w on Nov12th..
Alert…SOI will drop down till mid-next week. Then how the moisture is coming to 91B.
Whether 99W is pumping some moisture to 91B or any some other factors?
Moisture still building around 91B
OLR:http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/olr.htm
System in Andaman sea has intensified .clouds have not organized yet and is close to land. upper atmospheric conditions looks favorable close to system but its high to the west of system.An high pressure is slightly visbile over the low pressure in upper level providing good outflow.Any slight intensification trend will organize the low pressure into a depression.
Yes lot of hope on this system, hopefully it will not fizzle out like the current one
yes, i believe 2nd one will benefit us
I too
Vinodh what’s your view on the Shear along the path
Kavalli, guntur, ongole getting most the benefit from this WML..if it would have moved litte west..it would have pounded nellore and we would have got 2 cm rain from that..
System close to Ap gaining slight intensity.It has build impressive convection to the west and clouds are displaced to the west due to easterly shear.Low shear is approaching from the east but system is already close to coast so it will move into land before the shear decreases.
Where is wml actual location now?
high pressure over north bay is the steering system for both the low pressure
This is 3rd year in the row some amt of rain to TN in october and massive rain to AP in start of november.
No this low will vanish soon …tn will get rain once the 2nd low takes effect frm tuesday..so dnt wry guys
Waiting eagerly for Wednesday
Even Andhra AWS are not showing great numbers as of now.
TCHP has lower values (very bad) at BOB. Even SSTs are not that much too warm, but at near normal cyclone-conductive values around 27-28 oC.
SST: also at tight 27-28oC (not bad for cyclogensis)
TCHP: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2014311ni.jpg
Rao can v expect something from this system will it move south or west.
W/NW and may cross the coast SAP-CAP. So need to wait for 99w.
o.k sir
ur saying 91b right?
yes
91B will cross at SAP-CAP and weaken. so need to wait for next BOB-system 99W.
99W will give rains to s.ap once again??and where it will cross near n.tn or s.tn??
very unclear at this moment.
Cloudy day only, no rains for chennai today or tomorrow.
light drizzle at tirupati
Ts in s.ap
Foreca failed big time, predicted heavy showers sunday early morning. Nothing happened.
Guys the main thing is tht tn comes under the rain shadow region. And most of rains are vanished. But still we must not lose hope. We r all here r praying everyday for rains and for sure our postive attitude will be paid very soon.
Good morning.WP 99 has been doing a slow and steady progress overnight.
Shear continue to be favourable in its current path and the system has been tracking westwards.It will continue West/South West until 90E whereby steering winds (at this juncture) will transfer the system to a NW path.While the current shear is high,forecasts show a decreasing and so a favourable trend.
The current westerly path may make the system loose a few rainbands to its Southern Quadrant to Northern tip of the Sumatra Landmass as it scratches through,but it will quickly regain strength as it heads into the Open waters of BOB.
Conditions across the Bay of Bengal are only marginally favorable for tropical development. As a result we do not expect a strong tropical system to develop; however, it is likely that a weak tropical cyclone will develop early this …from accu weather
Gopal sir will the new system from Andaman trigger heavy rains to chennai ?? Everday I’m losing my hope on NE monsoon always all cyclones track towards andhra and nothing else is left for us…. Why this is happening … Andaman low will come to chennai?? Or as usual strike andhra??
Most models favour the system to reach TN as a LPA and so we are looking at reasonable rains.
huge disappointment….strong thunderstorms were there at just 30Kms away from chennai…but n o rains..guess they woulkd have moved north west
Ok Gopal sir then you were telling it will change its track towards NW After reaching 90 E that’s why i was shocked
Didn’t know what’s in store for as, still couple of days will seal the deal
NW track from 90E will bring the system straight to Nagai/Pondy
Oh thanks sir that’s very good news for us because from Northern bands we would get easily 20 cm of rain….!!!
Why last night thunderstorm missed to hit chennai?
At last I am happy with heavy drizzles
Why thunderstorm missed to hit chennai last night
Disturbed wind pattern
Hi jeetu sir
Bijli is your real name
My family name is bijli
Omg, thunderous family?
Ha ha that is bajal one place from yemen we are from bajal that’s why bijli
My family is from yemen Arabia
Yemen ki shezad
Hahah aap ko hindi malum kya?
Mother tongue
Oh! Our mother tongue is urdu talking is same in hindi and urdu but writing is different
Nope,60% only same
My name in Urdu امین بجلی
TS doesn’t move to inland at all. something have pulled its power to reach
Guys why it is not auto updating in my system. I have to refresh it every time to see the latest comments. Any solution you can give.
which browser ? try other browser and see if same issue
Lower convergence and Upper divergence is great for the second system now,,,,it is able to breathe freely …and for the next three hrs wind shear is expected to remain on a decreasing trend ..
GFS latest update in process …
as of now…
Nalla seidi ya sollounga …gts
Let us see,……:)
As per rammb, system dipped to 13.8N, 82.E…
Navy nrl maintains at 14.1N
Don.not write this wml off. still has steam in it. Expect some showers today late eve..l.m sure let’s see..
Even 20mm is a very great achievement
Mazhai varum pa. Konjum porumai theevai
.I.m this wml to gain some moisture soon so let’s see..
Appadiye aagattum tum!!!!!!!
Sir accuweather has given potential watch for tropical system for chennai what is that?
They are saying about that second system
Iam also talking about 2nd system what is meaning of potential watch for tropical system for chennai?
Don’t believe in forecast much, real time happenings matters lot, just see what this wml gave to s.ap
Then what crossed ap coast today morning?
Still wml is near coast..
Enters SE Bay , not much intense ….
Don’t worry sir SST is 26 to 27 c it will intensify in coming days to attack TN… We can get rains from this low from Tuesday because see the accuweather forecast it has given potential watch for tropical system for chennai…
Where do you live in chennai?
Me ah.. I live in George town chennai
North chennai
Any heavy rains expected next week? past week has gone without a drizzle also
Yes very heavy rains are expected from Tuesday night
lets hope so, these systems cannot be accurately predicted, change directions, we need a LP and pretty soon.
this current system has failed to give us rain,
The current system was not predicted to give any rains to chennai
It was predicted to give at least some amount of rains, many bloggers said so
That was only drizzles and we got it
ok lets see tuesday night, heavy spells as u say
I got drizzles here
drizzles during NEM month? joke
Do you know this is more than we got from this 91b it is not for us
my friend in Ongole says pouring since last night, pretty much in October also,
We will get our share soon
anyway next 10 days will decide our NEM fate, hoping for the best,
Yeah , a bit worrying factor that is expected is vertical wind shear ….Hope it comes down …
Today any rains for kurnool….
Kiran, coastal area are struggling to get rains here,you are asking about far interior
how is it in South A.P.. Any heavy rains there?
Yes heay rains since 6 clock.still continuing
Astonished to see such great enthusiasm in all the bloggers for rainfall in chennai….watching all your comments from the past 5 days….it all shows your passion for the rain….Can’t find such a blog like this anywhere….hope chennai gets pounded as soon as possible….Even as the resident of kurnool(AndhraPradesh) I want all the rain to be pounded in chennai and tamilnadu as this is your share…..
so nice of u man.. but NEM is not just for Tamilnadu it is for South coastal A.P,Tamilnadu South Interior Karnataka,Rayalaseema and kerala
Not kerela
no Kerala always gets rains during NEM.. though their major share is SWM
Not assured one, may be from first spell or nem onset time they get some share
Kerala gets pounded year after year, no shortage of rains at all.
Wait for a turnaround
Iam waiting; don’t want a repeat of last year debacle
Long live kiran long live