1,170 thoughts on “All eyes turn to 2nd system as Depression dissipates over sea

  1. There’s a nip in the air
    S.R. Ramanan, director, Area Cyclone Warning Centre, said: β€œWe are getting dry, cold northerly winds now. As there is less of monsoon activity and cloud cover, the minimum temperature is dipping.”

    Rains may give the city a miss this week too. A deep depression, which was lying over the Central Bay of Bengal, about 730 km east-northeast of Chennai, has weakened into a depression.

    Officials said there may be only isolated rainfall over the State during the weekend.

    R. Suresh, director, Aerodrome Meteorological Office, Meenambakkam, said misty mornings are a result of the typical behaviour of the northeast monsoon when the rain spells are not long.


  2. Latest GFS suggest upcoming system to make landfall near puducherry coasts if this happens Chennai will be most benefited from Northern bands of rain! Yipeee!!

  3. Good morning..as we had forecasted yday night.
    South China sea delivering the pulse at Car Nicobar and the ridge taking it to NSL/STN…could end up at CTN also.

    TN benefits.And…all is well.
    It will at best a D,but most probably a L and so we will get our rains.
    Easterlies are also being set up after LF.

  4. Our 12th System is making a rapid run towards BOB as seen below
    “Heavy and Strong Wind-Wave ”
    No. 7 Time Issued : November 08, 2014
    The active low pressure over lower South China Sea is due 300 km east of Songkhla. It is forecast to move through the lower South of Thailand during 8-10 November. More rain with gust is expected over the lower Chumphon, and some possible torrential rain occurs. The wind waves will become stronger with 2-4 meters high. These will affect the areas overnight and later on. People from Chumphon past south of both the Gulf shore and the Andaman Sea should beware of the severe weather condition. All ships in the Gulf should proceed with caution, and small boats keep ashore in this period.

  5. Bring out the laddu, GFS expects an equatorial easterly wave that could give us a few showers on. 15th and something building near Brunei .

      • when we will start getting rains?
        by the way what is mean by ridge?
        still i don weather terms?

      • Hm,, we might have isolated showers in the next 2 days, but chances aren’t very high. We will get rains from 12th/13th.

        Ridges, are more like boundaries or the ridge of a high pressure. They will guide movement in its present levels and bring in dry, cool and stable weather

  6. This is the image as at 00UTC i.e. 3 hrs back.
    See the system just touching the Southern Thailand land mass.
    We need to see where it emerges on the other side.

  7. 99W is facing moderate shear from NE, so the upper level circulation is already well inside Malay Peninsula while the surface levl is not there. Lower level circulation is also mostly in Malaysia

  8. Thailand shares the borders with Malaysia along its southern tip.The Northern tip of Malaysia has places like Kelantan,perlis and Kedah.The Southern tip of Thailand is mostly a place called Lower Chumphon.If you see the map,its just 1 land mass.Unlike international borders,there are no army barricades etc in these borders as most fareast countries are peace loving.

  9. So chennai’s rains now lie with the second system! Not good news considering these systems change directions often

  10. Jeetu & Susa
    So many powerful BOB cyclones generated form the equatorial trough. Only thing is that both MJO & SOI must have good timing for these pulses to gain in strength and escalate in latitude.

    Post 99w will be having full MJO’s support at Indian ocean (around phases 2 & 3). If SOI shows increasing trend then this post 99W can become very good system at BOB.

    Madi-2013 is one good example for this type of troughs, which formed very close to the equator that too S/SE to Srilanka. Later drifted N/NE wards towards SW/SC BOB with intensification.

    Madi-2013 (Wikipedia):

    (1) On November 30, a low pressure area formed south of India close to the equator. A day later, microwave satellite imagery revealed a broad low-level circulation center (LLCC).

    (2) The system slowly drifted northeastward over the next couple of days and slowly intensified. Though the sea surface temperatures were good enough for tropical cyclogenesis, moderate vertical wind shear kept the system from strengthening too quickly.

    (3) On December 5, the JTWC issued a TCFA on the system.

    Madi-2013 track: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_North_Indian_Ocean_cyclone_season#mediaviewer/File:Madi_2013_track.png
    Madi’s MJO phase: http://s30.postimg.org/5bpq87z35/201310_phase_90days.gif

      • Nope, Genesis is close to the equator. Read the point 1 carefully.

        (1) On November 30, a low pressure area formed south of India close to the equator.

  11. I have a doubt. System coming near 12th nov is heavy one? Bcoz we planned family trip on 12th Nov. I am asking abt this whether going out is safe or not?

      • did u see the shear on the way. This one also wont intensify. Atleast 1st one became Deep Depression. This one will also struggle. But atleast dry air wont affect it.

      • why shear is tearing off all the expected productive cyclones this year. Is it related to Elnino and more southerly dip in sub-tropical jet stream pattern?

      • Shear often fluctuates at this time of the year in BOB, like rapid increases in shear there have also been rapid decreases.

      • due to Elnino related shear no Atlantic hurricanes. similar type scenario occurring at north Indian ocean too?

        We know that southerly dip in sub-tropical jet stream pattern (west to east bound) will increase the wind shear factor for tropical cyclones (east-west bound).

        so SOI is the only savior for BOB-cyclones/NEM-rains this year it looks.

        For this reason according to literature BOB-cyclogensis (even Atlantic hurricanes) will be less in Elnino yrs when compared to lanina yrs.

        Nice analysis done by Srikanth in the forum regarding this correlation.

      • We’ve already had 2 category 4 cyclones this year rami, one in BOB and one in ARB. You can never write off anything this early. 1977 was an el nino year, that’s all i’m saying

      • Both 1976 & 1977 yrs are Elnino yrs. But both yrs have good MJO & SOI timing. 2014 is lacking that except at Hudhud time.

        But pretty confident that either 99w or post 99w pulse will become biggest rainfall event of the year.

    • S.AP does have better chances than Chennai of course, but chances aren’t very high. Maybe a few showers here and there, wait for 2nd system

  12. This day that year! Nov 8 1964, Cyclone hits TN, Dhanushkoti washed out, Chennai experienced one of the heaviest spells of rains.

  13. All friends please do not get excited,then nothing will come to our expectations like the 31st October TS…………

  14. Though the current WML may not provide us that much rains, may be some moderate rains can be expected starting late night/early morning..i feel this system is a blessing in disguise so to say for the upcoming system in terms of warming up the land area close to the coast which right now is under the impact of cool winds blowing from the northern plains,,Even if there is a warming of land area of around one to two degrees, that would certainly enhance the potential or in other words aid in the up coming system to thrive and gain strength in the warm land areas rather than the current situation..Warm coastal areas is always provides the ideal platform or helps in boosting the prospects of the up coming system..Lets see how things unfold in the days to come.

    • also it will curb negativities that no rains are there…i would prefer many different spells of rain rather than banking on 1 system only as it would cause less heart breaks if it misses us

  15. The active low pressure over lower Gulf of Thailand is due 200 km east of Songkhla. It is forecast to move through the lower South of Thailand during 8-10 November. More rain with gust is expected over the lower Chumphon, and some possible torrential rain occurs. The wind waves will become stronger with 2-4 meters high. These will affect the areas overnight and later on. People from Chumphon past south of both the Gulf shore (Surat Thani, Nakhon Si Thammarat, Phattalung and Songkhla) and the Andaman Sea (Ranong, Pangnga, Phuket, Krabi, Trang and Satun) should beware of the severe weather condition. All ships in the Gulf should proceed with caution, and small boats keep ashore in this period.

  16. it looks like a weak MJO until Mid Dec 2014..So no named systems can be expected during this NEM 2014..more of LPAs and easterly led rains

    • Wow… That’s a good news. Can’t bank on cyclones as they tend to move away more often than not, like last year. Minimal systems will always give persistent, long lasting spells unlike cyclones.

      • Its better to have less intense systems giving widespread 10cm rainfall like our first spell rather than a cyclone which gives 30 cm in one day to scattered places.

      • Cyclones usually bring very widespread rainfall. Example hudhud, some parts of AP and whole of Orissa!

      • We all know what happened to central AP when HUDHUD crossed. It triggered heavy rains only to northern areas because of its northern bands leaving places below Vizag high and dry.

      • Yes, Only N AP got rains, but it got severe rains. Orissa got very heavy rains too, whole of Orissa and parts of WB

      • But cyclones are make or break situation. To go with cyclones like Hudhud, we have instances of cyclones like Nilofar, lehar, Helen which proved out to be bad systems in terms of rainfall. I am not against cyclones or not against people who pride them and track them, but my concern is rains. As long as whole of TN gets widespread rains, I would be happy.

      • Wait and watch our rains next week. My gut feeling says it should be a Depression Max landing on Central TN triggering widespread rains to both NTN as well as STN. Its my wish too. Fingers crossed.

    • GTS? no chance whatsoever..can never even match or get close to his quest for observing, learning, understanding, interpreting, comparing and sharing with us…Well analysis is more often than not a deep thinking process which surely requires more intense approach, Neither i have the patience nor the wherewithal to do it..Mine is purely based on some casual observations and i try to share it.

  17. Weather Outlook for subsequent 4 days from 11th Nov 2014 to 15th Nov 2014

    ♦ A low pressure area may form over south Andaman sea around 10th November

    • I think this system will make the environment conducive for next system to take over. Let the dry air zone move away just in time before the next system.

      • it mite be other way as well.. tis system may hinder the development of upcoming system.. tat is one of the reason why models not expecting the 2nd system to develop into a cyclone

      • How about seeing it this way! More conducive environment on our coast because of this system may yield even a less intensity system in SW bay to trigger proper rains.

  18. The incoming low is in correct track of low shear region… It’s between two high shear regions …hence Intensification may take place..

  19. Formation of this cyclone depends on soi which was -11.45 yesterday if it shows decreasing trend then depression or did possible. If soi is at increasing level then cyclone target CTN if soi is around -0.5 to -0.10 then CTN and NTN landfall. If its CTN landfall northern bands of monsoon will bring a deluge to Chennai.

  20. If there’s something good that has happened due to the dissipation of the current depression, it’s helped us a lot by sacrificing itself and spreading its concentrated moisture all over the peninsula, and not to mention the increase of temperature.I think this depression deserves some respect! Salute! πŸ˜€

  21. I don,t see the next system is not gaining strength ,till it reaches land..? why ? and LF is nr nlr as per gfs now..?

  22. Just wait for 2 more days to speak/discuss about upcoming system, nothing there is to worry or to be tense as of now, chill guys, we will have a best 2nd spell of nem is due in big time

  23. 0600 UTC image shows our South China Pulse emerging to the west of the Southern Thailand landmass and heading towards Car Nicobar.So far So good.

  24. IMD in its all India weather forecast page predicts increase in rainfall activity over southern peninsular India from 11th November to the 14th November.

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